Rookie WR Production 2023

[Orenthal Shames]

Per Adam Levitan:

Rashee Rice routes per dropback by week:

Week 1: 26%
Week 2: 13%
Week 3: 58%
Week 4: 47%
Week 5: 23%
Week 6: 51%
Week 7: 65%

He's looking like he could be the WR1 in KC down the stretch.

[mild]

He's no Puka Nacua...

But Jordan Addison is arriving before our very eyes.

Week 7 vs. SFO:

4 rec, 95 yards
2 TD's

... AT THE HALF!

[CGW]

He's no Puka Nacua...

But Jordan Addison is arriving before our very eyes.

Week 7 vs. SFO:

4 rec, 95 yards
2 TD's

... AT THE HALF!

60 yards of it should probably be a fumble recovery

[pvillebiker]

Addi 4 O-ROY

[FantasyFreak]

Addison and Flowers looking like the 2 best WR's from the first round. JSN will be a solid player, I have little doubt about that. The odds of 4 for 4 is low, in terms of who will pan out. I'm looking at you, QJ.

[jordanzs]

Addi 4 O-ROY

Puka says “hold my beer”

[FantasyFreak]

Addi 4 O-ROY

Puka says “hold my beer”

He's holding so many beers right now, if you drank them all, you'd Puka.

I'll see myself out.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

It’s like Christmas Morning. Open Scores have been published. JSN sporting a 40…

Aiyuk a stud, but you already knew that from last years report…

https://espnanalytics.com/rtm/

Player ----- Open Score
Tank Dell ------- 90
Zay Flowers ---- 75
Dalton Kincaid - 70
Josh Downs ----- 62
Puka Nacua ----- 60
Rashee Rice ---- 57
Luke Musgrave - 52
Jayden Reed --- 47
Michael Wilson - 45
Jordan Addison - 44
JSN --------------- 40
Sam LaPorta ----- 38
Jonathan Mingo - 37

From looking at last years year-end report, it looks like ideally you want around a 70+ open score, unless you live on contested catches, a'la Pickens/London, etc.

[Cameron Giles]

Open Score

Rookies:
Tank Dell - 90
Zay Flowers - 75
Dalton Kincaid - 70
Josh Downs - 62
Puka Nacua - 60
Rashee Rice - 57
Luke Musgrave - 52
Jayden Reed - 47
Michael Wilson - 45
Jordan Addison - 44
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 40
Sam LaPorta - 38
Jonathan Mingo - 37

Overall

Tank Dell - 76
Zay Flowers - 66
Dalton Kincaid - 63
Josh Downs - 63
Puka Nacua - 62
Rashee Rice - 61
Michael Wilson - 59
Jordan Addison - 51
Luke Musgrave - 46
Sam LaPorta - 45
Jayden Reed - 39
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 35
Jonathan Mingo - 34

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Open Score

Rookies:

Jordan Addison - 44

Yeah, Addison that low is a bit surprising.

Elijah Moore with a great score, just highlighting how badly he doesn't have "it". Idk if it's 1 or all of playmaking ability, play strength, strength at the catchpoint, or just that dawg mentality. Dude can never make a play when he has to.

Kelce with an 82. Defenders hate this one simple trick! Lumber down the middle of the field, turn around, be wide open for some reason, catch pass.

[Cameron Giles]

Open Score

Rookies:

Jordan Addison - 44

Yeah, Addison that low is a bit surprising.

I'm sure it will even out. He's boosted some by a high touchdown rate right now, but he looked unguardable against San Francisco yesterday. Still very surprising though considering the flashes he's had.

[Cameron Giles]

Open Score - Sophomores

Garrett Wilson - 88
Chris Olave - 65
Wan'dale Robinson - 62
Romeo Doubs - 61
George Pickens - 60
Drake London - 56
Chig Okonkwo - 50
Rashid Shaheed - 48
Jahan Dotson - 46
Skyy Moore - 45
Alec Pierce - 27

Open Score - 3rd Year

Elijah Moore - 82
Ja'Marr Chase - 75
Nico Collins - 59
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 56
Rondale Moore - 55
Kyle Pitts - 51
Jaylen Waddle - 47
Josh Palmer - 44
Tutu Atwell - 27

A lot of interesting stuff here.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

- Open Scores added
- We're nearly halfway through the season. I think now is the time of year to start taking a hard look at the rookie WR's on your roster. Those that you can't see a path to hit the 47+ypg mark, you may want to start thinking of ways to get value from them.


Update for Week 7

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
0% Good
10% Bust
Puka Nacua [107] [OpenScore: 60]


57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
21% Good
29% Bust
Tank Dell [64] [OpenScore: 90]
Zay Flowers [63] [OpenScore: 75]
Josh Downs [57] [OpenScore: 62]
Jordan Addison [57] [OpenScore: 44]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
34% Stud
41% Good
24% Bust
Michael Wilson [49] [OpenScore: 45]


-------^^^GOOD^^^-------------vvvBADvvv------------------------------


37-46 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
13% Good
74% Bust
Rashee Rice [43] [OpenScore: 57]
Jayden Reed [38] [OpenScore: 47]


27-36 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
8% Good
79% Bust
Marvin Mims [35]
Demario Douglas [32]
Jaxon Smith-Njigba [28] [OpenScore: 40]
Jalin Hyatt [27]


Less than 27
Will have to update these hit rates...
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Jonathan Mingo [26]
Jake Bobo [18]
Dontayvion Wicks [18]
Trey Palmer [15]
Tre Tucker [12]
Quentin Johnston [10]
+23 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------


______________________________________


- Need to start seeing more big plays from LaPorta/Kincaid


Rookie TE Report: Week 7

Looking for:
Yards per Game - 20+
Catch Percentage - 68%+
Yards per Target - 8+
Games played - 9+

These criteria may help identify future studs at the TE position. Until last year, only 11 players had qualified for this list since 1995, with most of them being either studs or promising players. Chigoziem Okonkwo became the 12th player added to this list last year.

Sam LaPorta
53.9 YPG
71% Catch Percentage
7.7 YPT

Dalton Kincaid
32 YPG
92% Catch Percentage
7.1 YPT

Luke Musgrave
31.5 YPG
78.6 Catch Percentage
6.8 YPT

Michael Mayer
18.4 YPG
66.7 Catch Percentage
8.6 YPT


_______________________________________

[Bronco Billy]

It’s like Christmas Morning. Open Scores have been published. JSN sporting a 40…

Aiyuk a stud, but you already knew that from last years report…

https://espnanalytics.com/rtm/

Player ----- Open Score
Tank Dell ------- 90
Zay Flowers ---- 75
Dalton Kincaid - 70
Josh Downs ----- 62
Puka Nacua ----- 60
Rashee Rice ---- 57
Luke Musgrave - 52
Jayden Reed --- 47
Michael Wilson - 45
Jordan Addison - 44
JSN --------------- 40
Sam LaPorta ----- 38
Jonathan Mingo - 37

From looking at last years year-end report, it looks like ideally you want around a 70+ open score, unless you live on contested catches, a'la Pickens/London, etc.

Wow, is that definition of “open” way nebulous and subjective.

Interesting that M Wilson leads all rooks in catch rate, and most of them by a ton.

[YouMightDieTryin]

What in the world is Denver doing with Mims?!