Puka Nacua

[wickerkat1212]

Wow. I mean, when was the last time a player drafted where he was went on to do such great things? I mean, is this historic? An aberration? A glitch? Or the real thing?

[DinoDynasty]

DJ Moore or Puka.

[ericanadian]

Kupp’s role has changed from year to year. In 2022, his slot snaps were down to 42% if playerprofiler’s slot snap count can be believed. There’s a reason MattFFdynasty started from 2021 and it’s not the most honest approach you could hope for.

Per NFL.com, Kupp played 55% of his snaps in the slot (per later October 2022 article linked below) up until end of October 2022.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-seaso ... -boyd-lead

Matt’s data isn’t misleading…

I kinda figured it might go this way. I take back my statement suggesting there was dishonesty there and what’s being stated is technically accurate.

However, what I think we’re most interested in is how a guy is used, not necessarily where he lines up on the football field. When I think of slot receiver, I’m mostly thinking of the short yardage guy who goes over the middle of the field. Nacua is used almost exclusively inside 10 yards. He’s got 24 receptions on 31 targets for 245 yards in that area. 13 of those 31 targets are over the middle. Higbee and Jefferson also mostly work this area and this has left Jefferson as worthless and Higbee as significantly reduced. Kupp also works this area.

Say Kupp or Nacua replace Jefferson. It doesn’t really matter who because inside or outside they’re both working the same part of the field alongside Higbee. Nacua may not be lining up like Kupp, but he’s absolutely replacing his role on this team and he’ll have to compete directly with Kupp for targets in that area of the field when Kupp returns and I think that’s what people mean when they talk about Nacua working Kupp’s role.

[Orenthal Shames]

He's currently tied with Jefferson as WR2 overall

[gogobradyarm]

Kupp’s role has changed from year to year. In 2022, his slot snaps were down to 42% if playerprofiler’s slot snap count can be believed. There’s a reason MattFFdynasty started from 2021 and it’s not the most honest approach you could hope for.

Per NFL.com, Kupp played 55% of his snaps in the slot (per later October 2022 article linked below) up until end of October 2022.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-seaso ... -boyd-lead

Matt’s data isn’t misleading…

I kinda figured it might go this way. I take back my statement suggesting there was dishonesty there and what’s being stated is technically accurate.

However, what I think we’re most interested in is how a guy is used, not necessarily where he lines up on the football field. When I think of slot receiver, I’m mostly thinking of the short yardage guy who goes over the middle of the field. Nacua is used almost exclusively inside 10 yards. He’s got 24 receptions on 31 targets for 245 yards in that area. 13 of those 31 targets are over the middle. Higbee and Jefferson also mostly work this area and this has left Jefferson as worthless and Higbee as significantly reduced. Kupp also works this area.

Say Kupp or Nacua replace Jefferson. It doesn’t really matter who because inside or outside they’re both working the same part of the field alongside Higbee. Nacua may not be lining up like Kupp, but he’s absolutely replacing his role on this team and he’ll have to compete directly with Kupp for targets in that area of the field when Kupp returns and I think that’s what people mean when they talk about Nacua working Kupp’s role.

Who knows how it breaks down, I’m excited for the day Kupp returns. Will be a fascinating offense. I’m on team Pukachu, but I understand why people would feel Kupp is going to come back as the high volume WR1. I think Puka is going to ultimately be an annual 85-100 catch player, but there’s a real chance he’s better than that.

[ericanadian]

Per NFL.com, Kupp played 55% of his snaps in the slot (per later October 2022 article linked below) up until end of October 2022.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-seaso ... -boyd-lead

Matt’s data isn’t misleading…

I kinda figured it might go this way. I take back my statement suggesting there was dishonesty there and what’s being stated is technically accurate.

However, what I think we’re most interested in is how a guy is used, not necessarily where he lines up on the football field. When I think of slot receiver, I’m mostly thinking of the short yardage guy who goes over the middle of the field. Nacua is used almost exclusively inside 10 yards. He’s got 24 receptions on 31 targets for 245 yards in that area. 13 of those 31 targets are over the middle. Higbee and Jefferson also mostly work this area and this has left Jefferson as worthless and Higbee as significantly reduced. Kupp also works this area.

Say Kupp or Nacua replace Jefferson. It doesn’t really matter who because inside or outside they’re both working the same part of the field alongside Higbee. Nacua may not be lining up like Kupp, but he’s absolutely replacing his role on this team and he’ll have to compete directly with Kupp for targets in that area of the field when Kupp returns and I think that’s what people mean when they talk about Nacua working Kupp’s role.

Who knows how it breaks down, I’m excited for the day Kupp returns. Will be a fascinating offense. I’m on team Pukachu, but I understand why people would feel Kupp is going to come back as the high volume WR1. I think Puka is going to ultimately be an annual 85-100 catch player, but there’s a real chance he’s better than that.

It’s not impossible. I could see him retaining 7-10 targets a game and getting improved efficiency due to teams shifting coverage to Kupp. There are 22 targets available per game between him and Jefferson at this point. I can’t see Kupp averaging more than 10-14 per game, so why not?

[MacDaddy123]

Last Wednesday, I offered a guy Puka + Flowers for Olave.
He did not respond, so 30 minutes prior to early game kickoff, I pulled the offer (I don't like taking injury risks on trades).

Last night, after Puka's big game, he is asking me where that offer went, now he wants to take it.
Only thing is, after Puka seeing 35 targets in the first 2 games now, I am not sure that I want to offer it again.

I don't think I have ever seen a rookie WR get 35 targets and 50+ fantasy points in his first 2 games in the NFL.
Not sure what we have here in Puka, could wind up being a top big slot WR like Kupp or Keenan Allen.
Could even be Kupp's eventual replacement.

After 1 week I thought it was an illusion, after 2 weeks, he might be the real deal.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Last Wednesday, I offered a guy Puka + Flowers for Olave.
He did not respond, so 30 minutes prior to early game kickoff, I pulled the offer (I don't like taking injury risks on trades).

Last night, after Puka's big game, he is asking me where that offer went, now he wants to take it.
Only thing is, after Puka seeing 35 targets in the first 2 games now, I am not sure that I want to offer it again.

I don't think I have ever seen a rookie WR get 35 targets and 50+ fantasy points in his first 2 games in the NFL.
Not sure what we have here in Puka, could wind up being a top big slot WR like Kupp or Keenan Allen.
Could even be Kupp's eventual replacement.

After 1 week I thought it was an illusion, after 2 weeks, he might be the real deal.

Maybe see if you can deal Puka for olave without including flowers

[Shoreline Steamers]

Last Wednesday, I offered a guy Puka + Flowers for Olave.
He did not respond, so 30 minutes prior to early game kickoff, I pulled the offer (I don't like taking injury risks on trades).

Last night, after Puka's big game, he is asking me where that offer went, now he wants to take it.
Only thing is, after Puka seeing 35 targets in the first 2 games now, I am not sure that I want to offer it again.

I don't think I have ever seen a rookie WR get 35 targets and 50+ fantasy points in his first 2 games in the NFL.
Not sure what we have here in Puka, could wind up being a top big slot WR like Kupp or Keenan Allen.
Could even be Kupp's eventual replacement.

After 1 week I thought it was an illusion, after 2 weeks, he might be the real deal.

Maybe see if you can deal Puka for olave without including flowers

Yeah, maybe Puka + with the addition being something other than Flowers. Might just be me, but the two of them to upgrade to Olave oddly feels a bit high at this point. I love Olave, but I'm also really high on Flowers. Puka has everyone's head exploding at present. As we try to determine what he actually is moving forward.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Puka seems Travis Fulghamy

[FantasyFreak]

Puka seems Travis Fulghamy

I think he'll be relevant longer. Looking at the context of things here though, long term. How long does Stafford/McVay have left? McVay almost walked away this year, Stafford is long in the tooth.

Is Nakua a guy who they view as a long term, year after year, number 1 target in an offense? Enough to pass on really good prospects in future drafts, or FA's yearly? I am not sure they know the answer to that yet, it's still way too early to say. I think Nacua has looked really good through 2 games, and I think there's a very good chance he's a long term starting NFL WR, but I am not convinced he's a target hog/top option for this team for the long term, year in, year out.

[CGW]

Last Wednesday, I offered a guy Puka + Flowers for Olave.
He did not respond, so 30 minutes prior to early game kickoff, I pulled the offer (I don't like taking injury risks on trades).

Last night, after Puka's big game, he is asking me where that offer went, now he wants to take it.
Only thing is, after Puka seeing 35 targets in the first 2 games now, I am not sure that I want to offer it again.

I don't think I have ever seen a rookie WR get 35 targets and 50+ fantasy points in his first 2 games in the NFL.
Not sure what we have here in Puka, could wind up being a top big slot WR like Kupp or Keenan Allen.
Could even be Kupp's eventual replacement.

After 1 week I thought it was an illusion, after 2 weeks, he might be the real deal.

He could absolutely be the real deal. And I think at this point he's not going anywhere anytime soon. At minimum I think he holds onto that '1b' Bobby Trees role. That said, you have to consider regression on a few areas that would lead to why you might still want to make a deal. (Entirely outside of lineup settings)

1. Obvious volume regression. No1 is ever going to get 300 targets in a season unless we start playing a 25 game season. Not even JJ.
1. Could Kupp cut into his targets? I still think Kupp is an incredible WR and the last time he was on the football field we saw no proof of that being false.
2. Will Stafford continue to throw 46 times a game? I tend to think they will regress to the league average.

If you can use his hot start to take those questions off the table by consolidating to an already proven stud, it may be worth it. I've got Puka on a team I'm contending in, and I doubt I'll sell him even though he's my WR5 because depth will help me win now. But if someone came to me and I'm able to trade up to a guy I love (let's say Hill, Chase, JJ, Lamb, Olave) I'd find it hard not to consider it...

I'd also be absolutely fine if I traded Puka off "too soon". That's a dumb way to invest long term and the wrong way to look at this. If you sell a waiver wire pickup for a 1st once a year, you will be a dominant dynasty team, even if you miss out on getting a 1st+ a couple times here and there. You hold when value is worth the risk. You sell once it hits your target value. On my rebuilding squad I was thrilled with a 1st and if Puka ends up catching 300 balls for 2000 yards (and 0 TDs) as a rookie, so be it.

[Cameron Giles]

Puka seems Travis Fulghamy

I'd be willing to say closer to Juju or Landry's career trajectory.

[Orenthal Shames]

Puka seems Travis Fulghamy

I'd be willing to say closer to Juju or Landry's career trajectory.

Landry seeks like a good comp. Unathletic target hog.

[CGW]

Puka seems Travis Fulghamy

I'd be willing to say closer to Juju or Landry's career trajectory.

Agreed. Fulgham was a JAG re-tread who had already failed in GB, that landed in a good situation. This guy is a rookie who is doing it from the jump. The situation is similar, but the player seems safer.