Dynasty bias in Redrafts
Dynasty bias in Redrafts
So I have two old school redraft leagues that are older than most of you. I love the draft and the connections, but I am pretty awful at them. I can't take the dynasty hat off anymore. Just me?
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts
Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
Honestly I think there is too much dynasty bias in dynasty. Too many people kicking the can down the road year after year or entering 3+ year rebuilds.
I approach redraft as an opportunity to get some shares of players that otherwise I never would in dynasty. Players like Bijan, Gibbs, derrick Henry, kupp, top end QBs in their prime, etc.
I approach redraft as an opportunity to get some shares of players that otherwise I never would in dynasty. Players like Bijan, Gibbs, derrick Henry, kupp, top end QBs in their prime, etc.
Team #1: 2nd place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K
Q: Kyler, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens
T: Kelce, Goedert
D: nyj
K: Sanders
Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K
Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson
R: Swift, Walker, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE
Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F
Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson
Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0004&O=01
Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =07&F=0009
Team #6 orphan
https://www46.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0013&O=07
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K
Q: Kyler, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens
T: Kelce, Goedert
D: nyj
K: Sanders
Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K
Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson
R: Swift, Walker, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE
Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F
Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson
Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0004&O=01
Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =07&F=0009
Team #6 orphan
https://www46.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0013&O=07
Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
It happens. Been doing a lot of mocks to prepare for a few redrafts upcoming. Have to remember that guys like Tyreek and Diggs are elite players still and well worth taking in the top 15 picks, even though their dynasty value doesn't reflect that.
Different sites will use different ADP/ranks also, so having the well rounded dynasty knowledge can only help you identify some players that end up falling. Have been ending up with some nice fliers at the end of drafts. Guys like Skyy Moore who could bounce back in a big way. Obviously, redrafts tend to be half the size of our dynasty rosters so don't go reaching too far down lol. And if Skyy faceplants again, ypu don't have to hold on like dynasty. Cut, gone, give me the newest riser off the wire.
In the end, you're a slave to the snake draft and not much you can do besides get lucky and avoid injuries to your studs in the 1st 3 or 4 rounds.
Different sites will use different ADP/ranks also, so having the well rounded dynasty knowledge can only help you identify some players that end up falling. Have been ending up with some nice fliers at the end of drafts. Guys like Skyy Moore who could bounce back in a big way. Obviously, redrafts tend to be half the size of our dynasty rosters so don't go reaching too far down lol. And if Skyy faceplants again, ypu don't have to hold on like dynasty. Cut, gone, give me the newest riser off the wire.
In the end, you're a slave to the snake draft and not much you can do besides get lucky and avoid injuries to your studs in the 1st 3 or 4 rounds.
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Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
I am useless at redraft. My values are so far off reality it kills me. It's my only redraft league and it's my only money league. I need to trust the older guys. But then I have been very unlucky with injuries, which can kill even the best of teams. I'm cursed.
Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
100% agree with this. I find a lot of the discussion on DLF frustrating for this reason.abloom wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 8:42 pm Honestly I think there is too much dynasty bias in dynasty. Too many people kicking the can down the road year after year or entering 3+ year rebuilds.
I approach redraft as an opportunity to get some shares of players that otherwise I never would in dynasty. Players like Bijan, Gibbs, derrick Henry, kupp, top end QBs in their prime, etc.
Seems to me that folks are far too worried about not being left holding the bag when a player (like Henry) has aged to the point of being nearly impossible to trade. What is lost in that is they also got years and years of top level production and hopefully contended for several championships.
There is also too much emphasis on collecting future first round picks. The dialog on DLF is mostly about "value" now and not about how players profile for fantasy nor about winning fantasy games. It feels more like stock picking. First round picks are great and all - but they bust fairly routinely and they don't score any fantasy points. I'm more concerned about winning and losing fantasy games than winning and losing trades.
I think this is why I prefer salary cap dynasty. There is more emphasis on near term results because teams get back the salary money when a players contract ends. Managers are less worried about holding the bag because they can repurpose the money in the annual auction.
Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
Find that there is more emphasis on gaining assets than winning games. Rather be winning than stockpiling picks in hopes of building the SUPER team.
Like to start a league where you get points over a 5 year period towards determining who wins the Best Gm Award. Get told all the time that older guys aren't worth even 2nd rd picks but they keep adding valuable points to win $$$ from finishing top 3 or leading lgs in scoring. The Keenan Allen/ Amari Cooper's types nobody wants to give up anything for but have consistently produced & occasionally throw up big days.
Couldn't trade them for even a high -mid 2nd which are the Mingo / Avg and or 2nd tier types . I'd rather make a profit off them by making playoffs now than hoping I hit on a 2nd tier rookie. And I have for the most part. At a $50 buy in if We make the playoffs consistently over 5 years turning a profit then why be bad for 3-4 years hoping to finally win maybe 1 championship ?
Even having stacked team doesn't guarantee the championship ... Matchups , injury & sometimes luck often determine who takes home the So the more times you get in the playoffs the better is our motto.
Unless lg starts paying out for the best draft capital then I'll change strategy. Of course there comes a time where your team isn't in a position to challenge for the title and you switch gears & go for youth. Too often in my opinion teams give up & chase draft picks if they're not Top 2 or 3 roster on paper. League ends up over half the teams tanking in some cases which is not leagues I enjoy.
I have seen the reverse case where redraft guys can't grasp dynasty concepts. About 3 years ago a guy had a fit because Julio Jones got traded for a young DK Metcalf & what looked like a late 1st in a dynasty lg. Thought it was robbery. Turned out it was , but the other way around !
Like to start a league where you get points over a 5 year period towards determining who wins the Best Gm Award. Get told all the time that older guys aren't worth even 2nd rd picks but they keep adding valuable points to win $$$ from finishing top 3 or leading lgs in scoring. The Keenan Allen/ Amari Cooper's types nobody wants to give up anything for but have consistently produced & occasionally throw up big days.
Couldn't trade them for even a high -mid 2nd which are the Mingo / Avg and or 2nd tier types . I'd rather make a profit off them by making playoffs now than hoping I hit on a 2nd tier rookie. And I have for the most part. At a $50 buy in if We make the playoffs consistently over 5 years turning a profit then why be bad for 3-4 years hoping to finally win maybe 1 championship ?
Even having stacked team doesn't guarantee the championship ... Matchups , injury & sometimes luck often determine who takes home the So the more times you get in the playoffs the better is our motto.
Unless lg starts paying out for the best draft capital then I'll change strategy. Of course there comes a time where your team isn't in a position to challenge for the title and you switch gears & go for youth. Too often in my opinion teams give up & chase draft picks if they're not Top 2 or 3 roster on paper. League ends up over half the teams tanking in some cases which is not leagues I enjoy.
I have seen the reverse case where redraft guys can't grasp dynasty concepts. About 3 years ago a guy had a fit because Julio Jones got traded for a young DK Metcalf & what looked like a late 1st in a dynasty lg. Thought it was robbery. Turned out it was , but the other way around !
Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
I fell into this trap and I was terrible for about 3 years. I couldn't figure out why. (Auction leagues)
Then I realized that I was placing a higher emphasis on value than I was on getting the players I needed to be successful. Two years ago on a $200 budget, I scoffed at $63 dollars on Ekeler, but I just HAD to make a bid at a recovering Barkley for $55 because that was one hell of a deal.
Barkley gets like 120 points and only misses 2 games, Ekeler tops out over 300 points. I went into the draft needing either Ekeler or JT, which was my plan pre-draft, and instead I passed on those two because they got too expensive, and purchased a guy who basically tanked my entire team at nearly the same value because it was a deal I couldn't pass up. I did that many years in a row, thanks to a dynasty mindset.
Last year I went for broke going for my top two guys, then filled the rest with guys I wanted, not deals I couldn't pass up. I ended up as the #1 seed... lost in the semis, but still, it was back to my original form. Felt great!
ULTIMATE RB GURUs
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
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REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!
REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134
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Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
"I have to trade insert stud here. His value will never be higher!!"abloom wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 8:42 pm Honestly I think there is too much dynasty bias in dynasty. Too many people kicking the can down the road year after year or entering 3+ year rebuilds.
I approach redraft as an opportunity to get some shares of players that otherwise I never would in dynasty. Players like Bijan, Gibbs, derrick Henry, kupp, top end QBs in their prime, etc.
Usually famous last words for people who are about to lose a trade.
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Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
We ought to have a board redraft league here and let everyone enjoy the trainwreck. Pretty sure I’d be in the running for Engineer1.
Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
I didn't drafty a RB until round 5 because the value was always at WR. My RB's are not good.....I have the best WR4 in the league, but he is on my bench......
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts
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Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
I have no issue switching between Redraft and Dynasty at this point in time.
That said, I feel like it is much more common to see dynasty drafters draft like it is Redraft than to see Redraft managers drafting like it is dynasty.
I can't tell you how many teams I see in a dynasty startup load up on Adams, Henry, Kupp, ARod, Kelce, etc. from the jump.
In a dynasty startup normally my early round picks are for younger players, and I will grab older dudes like Aaron Jones, Kamara, Keenan Allen in the later rounds.
One team in one of my leagues now, we did the startup in June 2022, his starting lineup is:
QB: Goff
RB: Henry
RB: Gibson
WR: Kupp
WR: Adams
WR: Hill
TE: Waller
Flex: MT
Flex: Keenan Allen
Flex: Brandin Cooks
SFlex: Stafford
Top bench pieces are Mostert, Patterson, Marvin Jones.
Also traded away all of his 2023 and 2024 draft picks to get this build.
Sure, he has a good 1 to 2 year window, but that team will be in rebuild for 8 years after that.
I'm sure the manager will not hang around for the rebuild.
He will play in 2023, maybe 2024 depending on how 2023 goes.
Then leave the league. I've seen this happen over and over.
Doesn't seem like many dynasty players plan to stay in a league more than 3 years max.
That said, I feel like it is much more common to see dynasty drafters draft like it is Redraft than to see Redraft managers drafting like it is dynasty.
I can't tell you how many teams I see in a dynasty startup load up on Adams, Henry, Kupp, ARod, Kelce, etc. from the jump.
In a dynasty startup normally my early round picks are for younger players, and I will grab older dudes like Aaron Jones, Kamara, Keenan Allen in the later rounds.
One team in one of my leagues now, we did the startup in June 2022, his starting lineup is:
QB: Goff
RB: Henry
RB: Gibson
WR: Kupp
WR: Adams
WR: Hill
TE: Waller
Flex: MT
Flex: Keenan Allen
Flex: Brandin Cooks
SFlex: Stafford
Top bench pieces are Mostert, Patterson, Marvin Jones.
Also traded away all of his 2023 and 2024 draft picks to get this build.
Sure, he has a good 1 to 2 year window, but that team will be in rebuild for 8 years after that.
I'm sure the manager will not hang around for the rebuild.
He will play in 2023, maybe 2024 depending on how 2023 goes.
Then leave the league. I've seen this happen over and over.
Doesn't seem like many dynasty players plan to stay in a league more than 3 years max.
Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
My re-draft team:
QB: P Mahomes, Joe Burrow
WR: D Adams, A Cooper, C Godwin, DJ Moore, C Watson, J Addison
RB: R Stevenson, A Mattison, T Bigsby, I Pacheco
TE: J Ferguson, L Musgrave
DST: WSH (cause they playing Arizona week 1)
Need to drop one for a Kicker ...
But yes, redraft is incredibly hard for me ... always have to remind myself not to take rookies, but typically can't help myself in the last 3 rounds... (above, Bigsby, Addison, Musgrave)
QB: P Mahomes, Joe Burrow
WR: D Adams, A Cooper, C Godwin, DJ Moore, C Watson, J Addison
RB: R Stevenson, A Mattison, T Bigsby, I Pacheco
TE: J Ferguson, L Musgrave
DST: WSH (cause they playing Arizona week 1)
Need to drop one for a Kicker ...
But yes, redraft is incredibly hard for me ... always have to remind myself not to take rookies, but typically can't help myself in the last 3 rounds... (above, Bigsby, Addison, Musgrave)
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Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
My only redraft league is a family redraft. I have more fantasy experience than the rest of them combined. But I’m a perennial bottom dweller. I am definitely stick in the dynasty mindset.
Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
Your biggest problem is that you are drafting with youth contributing to your perceived value of players when you should be focusing on players' team mascots and colors.slaughterrt wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 3:54 pm My only redraft league is a family redraft. I have more fantasy experience than the rest of them combined. But I’m a perennial bottom dweller. I am definitely stick in the dynasty mindset.
Team #1: 2nd place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K
Q: Kyler, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens
T: Kelce, Goedert
D: nyj
K: Sanders
Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K
Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson
R: Swift, Walker, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE
Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F
Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson
Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0004&O=01
Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =07&F=0009
Team #6 orphan
https://www46.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0013&O=07
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K
Q: Kyler, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens
T: Kelce, Goedert
D: nyj
K: Sanders
Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K
Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson
R: Swift, Walker, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE
Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F
Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson
Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0004&O=01
Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =07&F=0009
Team #6 orphan
https://www46.myfantasyleague.com/2024/ ... =0013&O=07
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Re: Dynasty bias in Redrafts
Oh man, I just picked 4 rookie rbs in my team. I'm hopeless.
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