Has there been another player THIS productive who's never been worth a 1st??

[dynastyninja]

I think there are definitely certain (productive) players who people just never feel good about trading a 1st for and Lockett has been one of those guys for the last five years. I think it's a mix of perception and archetype.

I do agree with that. He's never been a sexy buy.

I think he's clearly outperformed his value at basically every step of his career. I feel like his value has always been semi-justified, though. He's just risen above it consistently.

[Menace2010]

I wonder how many cut bait on him prior to 2018... We almost expiect Rookies to produce in year 1 now. Year 3 breakouts are pretty much the final hoorah. Lockett broke out year 4. Imagine there were plenty of teams trading him for 2nds or whatever the off-season between. I'm still haunted by the time I cut Tyler Boyd going into year 3 (stupid in hindsight I know) because he was rated on all the dynasty sites as a bust after 2 seasons (pretty sure DLF had him as WR80 or lower and I was deep at WR). We shouldn't give up on most rookie WRs before year 3, the statistics show is that but at times the roster crunch is real.

Statistically year 4 or later breakouts are so low, it almost makes sense to play the odds. But also worth considering if there are any commonalities between guys that don't breakout until later in their careers to determine if we're all giving up too soon on a couple players in particular.

[Ruggenater]

I took a shot on Lockett in my main league’s startup draft in the summer of 2017 at pick 162 overall. Been a great piece for me over that time, and finally sold for a 2024 2nd this offseason.

Diontae Johnson is a good suggestion of a similar-ish player. Another could be Jakobi Meyers. If he manages to start producing at a high level, Nico Collins could fall into the bucket as someone who will always be looked at as a WR2-type (on his own team; i.e., not an “alpha” WR).

[MattDeezy]

Looking at other comparable players I’d say Amari Cooper is also pretty under appreciated as well.

[Cameron Giles]

Looking at other comparable players I’d say Amari Cooper is also pretty under appreciated as well.

Cooper doesn't really fit. There was a time where he consistently had a Top 24-30 ADP and you would trade a 1st for him.

[Paul717]

I wonder how many cut bait on him prior to 2018... We almost expiect Rookies to produce in year 1 now. Year 3 breakouts are pretty much the final hoorah. Lockett broke out year 4. Imagine there were plenty of teams trading him for 2nds or whatever the off-season between. I'm still haunted by the time I cut Tyler Boyd going into year 3 (stupid in hindsight I know) because he was rated on all the dynasty sites as a bust after 2 seasons (pretty sure DLF had him as WR80 or lower and I was deep at WR). We shouldn't give up on most rookie WRs before year 3, the statistics show is that but at times the roster crunch is real.

Statistically year 4 or later breakouts are so low, it almost makes sense to play the odds. But also worth considering if there are any commonalities between guys that don't breakout until later in their careers to determine if we're all giving up too soon on a couple players in particular.

This comment made me think of the most random breakout season I could remember...ladies and gentleman I present Brandon Lloyd's year EIGHT breakout:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... oyBr00.htm

So who is the next Lockett, and who are the Brandon Lloyd candidates?

[killer_of_giants]

ladies and gentleman I present Brandon Lloyd's year EIGHT breakout:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... oyBr00.htm

bah! he's no gary barnidge!

He's definitely been worth a first for multiple seasons in the past. It just feels like he hasn't because of how depleted his value has been recently.

maybe in some leagues. but no, at first his efficiency was just unsustainable, then it was metcalf coming to town, then he was 28 which means "he's dead, jim" for most, and then it's just that he was boom or bust anyway. i tried selling for a 1st in 2019, got told "maaaybe a 2nd" so i just accepted the fact he will retire on my team (and has a ring to show for it!).

[kadun2]

I’ve just held him and hope for those insane blow up weeks. He can sure help win point bonuses some weeks. I could never get anything much offered for him in a trade.

[Paul717]

ladies and gentleman I present Brandon Lloyd's year EIGHT breakout:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... oyBr00.htm

bah! he's no gary barnidge!

He's definitely been worth a first for multiple seasons in the past. It just feels like he hasn't because of how depleted his value has been recently.

maybe in some leagues. but no, at first his efficiency was just unsustainable, then it was metcalf coming to town, then he was 28 which means "he's dead, jim" for most, and then it's just that he was boom or bust anyway. i tried selling for a 1st in 2019, got told "maaaybe a 2nd" so i just accepted the fact he will retire on my team (and has a ring to show for it!).

OMG! I just noticed the word "outlier" in the dictionary takes me to that very same Barnidge page. That one season was basically HALF of his career production. Wow.

[Ice]

Christian Kirk is a player that is getting close to Lockett in being under appreciated. Works with a quiet efficiency and has been getting more productive annually.

[Shcritters]

I’ve just held him and hope for those insane blow up weeks. He can sure help win point bonuses some weeks. I could never get anything much offered for him in a trade.

I call these players ‘the Erick Decker All-Stars’, players who will never fetch what their points say they’re worth in a trade… but who are extremely solid nonetheless.

On Locket… what hasn’t been said a lot is that he was basically worthless for 3/4 of the year, but that other 1/4 of the year he would win you your week.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

I’ve just held him and hope for those insane blow up weeks. He can sure help win point bonuses some weeks. I could never get anything much offered for him in a trade.

I call these players ‘the Erick Decker All-Stars’, players who will never fetch what their points say they’re worth in a trade… but who are extremely solid nonetheless.

On Locket… what hasn’t been said a lot is that he was basically worthless for 3/4 of the year, but that other 1/4 of the year he would win you your week.

i find him quite consistent. he's the epitome of that solid wr you want in your starting lineup.

never tried to trade him away. always happy with his contributions.

[frerichs5]

I’ve just held him and hope for those insane blow up weeks. He can sure help win point bonuses some weeks. I could never get anything much offered for him in a trade.

I call these players ‘the Erick Decker All-Stars’, players who will never fetch what their points say they’re worth in a trade… but who are extremely solid nonetheless.

On Locket… what hasn’t been said a lot is that he was basically worthless for 3/4 of the year, but that other 1/4 of the year he would win you your week.

i find him quite consistent. he's the epitome of that solid wr you want in your starting lineup.

never tried to trade him away. always happy with his contributions.

Last year definitely seemed better. Before that, I agree with the previous poster. Take 2021 for example.

4 games over 25 points
6 games under 8

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

I call these players ‘the Erick Decker All-Stars’, players who will never fetch what their points say they’re worth in a trade… but who are extremely solid nonetheless.

On Locket… what hasn’t been said a lot is that he was basically worthless for 3/4 of the year, but that other 1/4 of the year he would win you your week.

i find him quite consistent. he's the epitome of that solid wr you want in your starting lineup.

never tried to trade him away. always happy with his contributions.

Last year definitely seemed better. Before that, I agree with the previous poster. Take 2021 for example.

4 games over 25 points
6 games under 8

Hmmm, I guess I have recency bias.

[Oddball456]

Y'all must play in some vanilla bleep leagues. We give 10 points per game for virgins, 5 points for poets, plus return yards. Lockett is the GOAT WR!