Has there been another player THIS productive who's never been worth a 1st??

[lukkynumber13]

I realize he’s often discussed as consistently undervalued, but when you go back and look at his numbers it’s INSANE how undervalued he’s always been.

79/1057/9 is his mathematical average season over the past five years. What would we pay for, say, Jahan Dotson if you were guaranteed this production for the next 5 years:
57/965/10
82/1057/8
100/1054/10
73/1175/8
84/1033/9

And I could be misremembering, but I don’t think his value has ever been widely considered a 1st round rookie pick. Like, I’m sure people have paid a 1st for him before - but I’ve never seen it.

And I don’t think he’s ever been viewed in a way that if you bought him for a late 1st, people in your league would say “nice, you got a great value”. I think at pretty much ANY point in Tyler Lockett’s career, the person selling him for a 1st would be thrilled that they got a first round pick for "a middling depth player" (me included unfortunately)

[Ice]

He is a lot like Brandon Cooks as the one example I can think of off the top of my head. The NFL knows value as do his fantasy owners.

That said, I expect a sizable drop this year as JSN will gobble up targets and receptions

Some players just seem to be undervalued yet are very solid fantasy starters.

[abloom]

I realize he’s often discussed as consistently undervalued, but when you go back and look at his numbers it’s INSANE how undervalued he’s always been.

79/1057/9 is his mathematical average season over the past five years. What would we pay for, say, Jahan Dotson if you were guaranteed this production for the next 5 years:
57/965/10
82/1057/8
100/1054/10
73/1175/8
84/1033/9

And I could be misremembering, but I don’t think his value has ever been widely considered a 1st round rookie pick. Like, I’m sure people have paid a 1st for him before - but I’ve never seen it.

And I don’t think he’s ever been viewed in a way that if you bought him for a late 1st, people in your league would say “nice, you got a great value”. I think at pretty much ANY point in Tyler Lockett’s career, the person selling him for a 1st would be thrilled that they got a first round pick for "a middling depth player" (me included unfortunately)

I think the bolded part should be mentioned. If you can gaurentee future production yes value of the player increases. But we are working off of projections constantly. So why should I pay for past production if I project the player worse.

Also here is Lockett's ADP history according to DLF:
https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/playe ... er_Lockett

Looks like Aug 2016 he was being drafted in the top 3 rounds on average (35.5) and against Nov/Dec 2019 being drafted right around 30ish. I assume that he was worth a first at those times if being traded. (ended up looking at DLF's trade finder for those dates and do find several Lockette for future 1sts).

Looking in the DLF trade finder there appears to be a trade on 3/24/23 wehre lockett was traded for 1.10, OBJ and Parker WAshington (of course I see another trade on the same day as Lockette for the 2.11)

[Sriracha]

People just don't trust undersized deep threats without elite YAC ability.

Brandin Cooks has suffered similar value struggles.

[mild]

I guess for me it's like... sure, this is a lovely thread now... but the ship has also long since sailed. (And doubly so with SEA telling you themselves that the succession plan is now in place with 1st round DC)

If I'm paying up a 1st+ for a 30 y/o WR - then I'd way rather spend it on someone whose actually been a bonafide Number 1 at some point - Hopkins, obviously Kupp is even more... hell, am I crazy to say I might even prefer Mike Evans, who is also apparently not worth a 1st?

Love Tyler Lockett, awesome career, yep, he was never worth a 1st... but also... who cares?

[lukkynumber13]

I guess for me it's like... sure, this is a lovely thread now... but the ship has also long since sailed. (And doubly so with SEA telling you themselves that the succession plan is now in place with 1st round DC)

If I'm paying up a 1st+ for a 30 y/o WR - then I'd way rather spend it on someone whose actually been a bonafide Number 1 at some point - Hopkins, obviously Kupp is even more... hell, am I crazy to say I might even prefer Mike Evans, who is also apparently not worth a 1st?

Love Tyler Lockett, awesome career, yep, he was never worth a 1st... but also... who cares?

Haha fair point

Yeah, this isn’t meant to be a post that’s super helpful for managing a dynasty team right now, but more of an appreciation post/“man kind of wacky how good he’s been while never being valued as a core asset” hybrid post

[Pullo Vision]

I guess for me it's like... sure, this is a lovely thread now... but the ship has also long since sailed. (And doubly so with SEA telling you themselves that the succession plan is now in place with 1st round DC)

If I'm paying up a 1st+ for a 30 y/o WR - then I'd way rather spend it on someone whose actually been a bonafide Number 1 at some point - Hopkins, obviously Kupp is even more... hell, am I crazy to say I might even prefer Mike Evans, who is also apparently not worth a 1st?

Love Tyler Lockett, awesome career, yep, he was never worth a 1st... but also... who cares?

Haha fair point

Yeah, this isn’t meant to be a post that’s super helpful for managing a dynasty team right now, but more of an appreciation post/“man kind of wacky how good he’s been while never being valued as a core asset” hybrid post

Totally get that angle. Going forward, I'm curious what vet provides the same misalignment between production and value.

[grandmabetty]

Lol I knew you were talking about lockett before I ever read past the first few lines. I own lockett absolutely everywhere. In every league I'm in. He's always a throw in in ever deal and I get a WR 8-15 for essentially free. I've seen lockett sold along with the 2.10 to move up to 2.02.

The guy does nothing but produce. Wish I could sell him as the collapse is coming some day but people won't even pay a 2nd. He will likely die on my rosters

[Paul717]

I realize he’s often discussed as consistently undervalued, but when you go back and look at his numbers it’s INSANE how undervalued he’s always been.

79/1057/9 is his mathematical average season over the past five years. What would we pay for, say, Jahan Dotson if you were guaranteed this production for the next 5 years:
57/965/10
82/1057/8
100/1054/10
73/1175/8
84/1033/9

And I could be misremembering, but I don’t think his value has ever been widely considered a 1st round rookie pick. Like, I’m sure people have paid a 1st for him before - but I’ve never seen it.

And I don’t think he’s ever been viewed in a way that if you bought him for a late 1st, people in your league would say “nice, you got a great value”. I think at pretty much ANY point in Tyler Lockett’s career, the person selling him for a 1st would be thrilled that they got a first round pick for "a middling depth player" (me included unfortunately)

Great post and I'll admit I had to read to the end to know who you were talking about.

I also couldn't resist checking his stats out on PFR, and be reminded of how effective he was as a returner early in his career:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... ckTy00.htm

In other words he was an absolute steal for the Seahawks in the 3rd round. He went 26th overall in our rookie draft in 2015 but in hindsight he's roughly a top 5 (ish, not here to debate that) rookie from that year. I realize others have posted proof that he was at some points worth a first by multiple measures, but I agree it doesn't feel like he was valued correctly for very long.

A couple of things happened in his 4th year: His catch rate was outstanding (and has mostly remained so) and his yards per target was OBSCENE that year. After that...he started to get a bunch more targets and rightfully so.

So who is the next Tyler Lockett? I love the threads on here detailing WR success in their rookie year as a predictor for future success. But Tyler Lockett situations can happen. (Stevie Johnson comes to mind...albeit his peak was less than Lockett's).

Any other WR out there lurking like this?!?

Post Submit Edit: Check out Doug Baldwin as well:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... ldDo00.htm

Is it correct to say Lockett was the WR2 to Baldwin's WR1 for a while, then Lockett basically ascended after that? (And remained valuable even with DK coming to town?)

So are we looking for the next WR2 that could become a team's WR1 via the WR1 retiring / leaving / etc.? Like does this career arc happen often?!?

[Kurtrambis1]

I realize he’s often discussed as consistently undervalued, but when you go back and look at his numbers it’s INSANE how undervalued he’s always been.

79/1057/9 is his mathematical average season over the past five years. What would we pay for, say, Jahan Dotson if you were guaranteed this production for the next 5 years:
57/965/10
82/1057/8
100/1054/10
73/1175/8
84/1033/9

And I could be misremembering, but I don’t think his value has ever been widely considered a 1st round rookie pick. Like, I’m sure people have paid a 1st for him before - but I’ve never seen it.

And I don’t think he’s ever been viewed in a way that if you bought him for a late 1st, people in your league would say “nice, you got a great value”. I think at pretty much ANY point in Tyler Lockett’s career, the person selling him for a 1st would be thrilled that they got a first round pick for "a middling depth player" (me included unfortunately)

Great post and I'll admit I had to read to the end to know who you were talking about.

I also couldn't resist checking his stats out on PFR, and be reminded of how effective he was as a returner early in his career:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... ckTy00.htm

In other words he was an absolute steal for the Seahawks in the 3rd round. He went 26th overall in our rookie draft in 2015 but in hindsight he's roughly a top 5 (ish, not here to debate that) rookie from that year. I realize others have posted proof that he was at some points worth a first by multiple measures, but I agree it doesn't feel like he was valued correctly for very long.

A couple of things happened in his 4th year: His catch rate was outstanding (and has mostly remained so) and his yards per target was OBSCENE that year. After that...he started to get a bunch more targets and rightfully so.

So who is the next Tyler Lockett? I love the threads on here detailing WR success in their rookie year as a predictor for future success. But Tyler Lockett situations can happen. (Stevie Johnson comes to mind...albeit his peak was less than Lockett's).

Any other WR out there lurking like this?!?

Who is the next Tyler Lockett?

Initially with loose criteria, I feel like the archetype comes as:
-A non-early declare
-Drafted in the 3rd round or later
-From a small school or non-traditional Power 5
-Does not jump off the page analytically

Honestly, it makes sense when you think about it logically. A kid goes to a "smaller" football school because he isn't physically ready for a Power 5. Then he balls out because he is good at football but usually needs an extra year to gain muscle. By the time he breaks out and enters the draft he is competing with early declares/ athletic monsters who have insane potential that NFL scouts and fantasy players love so he falls.

Once in the NFL, good coaches play good players. But the fantasy community is reluctant to buy because he wasn't a high draft pick.

These players are rare but going back through the drafts I think a good candidate would be Diontae Johnson (though he did declare early). He is polarizing. Is due for some positive TD regression and I don't see too many people paying 1sts for him. In our PPR league he has finished (41, 21, 8, 30).

Terry Mclaurin is probably the better comp (but from Ohio State). People have started to cool on him and I see a ton of Jahan Dotson love.

Cooper Kupp meets the criteria but he is a stud!

What are people seeing them go for in their leagues?

[dynastyninja]

Absolutely true that he's far outperformed his value for years. I've got him in a teardown and definitely can't get a second for him. Couldn't last offseason either. It's been a combination of age, target competition, QB play, etc. holding him back.

He's definitely been worth a first for multiple seasons in the past. It just feels like he hasn't because of how depleted his value has been recently.

It's very hard to justify paying a first for non-elite receivers once they're 28+. They have to put up WR1 production to justify the move as far as I'm concerned. One injury or sign of them slowing down at all and their value diminishes greatly. Also, if you don't win it all, the move was basically "wasted" because you lost a first and didn't actually get the benefit of the production you paid for.

[mild]

It's very hard to justify paying a first for non-elite receivers once they're 28+. They have to put up WR1 production to justify the move as far as I'm concerned. One injury or sign of them slowing down at all and their value diminishes greatly. Also, if you don't win it all, the move was basically "wasted" because you lost a first and didn't actually get the benefit of the production you paid for.

Nail, meet hammer.

This is the whole thing, right here. It's hard to imagine a stone-cold contender sending their 1st for a 30 year old WR who has never been the number one on his own team.

At that point I'd sooner just take Quintenn Johnson, or Addison, and taxi them. At least they'll still be in the league in 2026.

[Cameron Giles]

I'll self promote here, because it's in context. I made this thread almost 8 years ago today wondering why the dynasty community was so low on Lockett before his rookie season started.

Lockett was negged for a lot of the usual stuff: Small, not that athletic, going to a bad situation. But, he had very good tape, good college production and solid draft peidgree in the 3rd round. It was strange that he was going behind so many players who were duds in college or had worse draft pedigree late in rookie drafts. I think he was underrated in college and still underrated now.

I don't think Lockett being good is a shocker, but I think his value over the last five years is just proof of what happens when the dynasty community misses on a player of a certain archetype that they were never high on. Nobody wants to go out of their way to pay for it. I'm sure there are more examples of that type of player.

[dynastyninja]

I'll self promote here, because it's in context. I made this thread almost 8 years ago today wondering why the dynasty community was so low on Lockett before his rookie season started.

Lockett was negged for a lot of the usual stuff: Small, not that athletic, going to a bad situation. But, he had very good tape, good college production and solid draft peidgree in the 3rd round. It was strange that he was going behind so many players who were duds in college or had worse draft pedigree late in rookie drafts. I think he was underrated in college and still underrated now.

I don't think Lockett being good is a shocker, but I think his value over the last five years is just proof of what happens when the dynasty community misses on a player of a certain archetype that they were never high on. Nobody wants to go out of their way to pay for it. I'm sure there are more examples of that type of player.

I remember him as an early 2nd rounder in rookie drafts, which I think was the right spot for him at the time. He clearly outperformed that pick, but I don't think he was just being grossly underestimated. He was an undersized wide receiver drafted in the third round to a run-first team. He was clearly talented, but that's not always enough.

I'd also disagree with the notion that he was just blowing people away and the dynasty community collectively refused to give him credit. Did some quick research. His career so far:

2015 (age 23) (rookie year): WR42
2016 (age 24): WR64
2017 (age 25): WR55
2018 (age 26): WR16
2019 (age 27): WR13
2020 (age 28): WR8
2021 (age 29): WR23
2022 (age 30): WR12

I've had him the majority of his career, and he's absolutely had (and continues to have) a great run, but he wasn't a startable fantasy WR until 2018 when he was 26. His age 27 season (2019) he was a high-end WR2. By the time he actually put up a WR1 season in 2020, he was 28 and dealing with a maddeningly inconsistent Russ.

Actually looking at it now, maybe it's not that crazy that he really never could get much in the trade market. His age/production definitely warranted a first around 2018-2020, and I think you could've gotten that in a trade for him, but he's basically been a (+/-) WR2 from the age of 26.

If I had a crystal ball before the 2018 season and saw the next five years like the list above, I'd pay a 1st+ for him. Same for 2019 and probably 2020. Definitely not for 2021 and 2022, though.

[Cameron Giles]

I'll self promote here, because it's in context. I made this thread almost 8 years ago today wondering why the dynasty community was so low on Lockett before his rookie season started.

Lockett was negged for a lot of the usual stuff: Small, not that athletic, going to a bad situation. But, he had very good tape, good college production and solid draft peidgree in the 3rd round. It was strange that he was going behind so many players who were duds in college or had worse draft pedigree late in rookie drafts. I think he was underrated in college and still underrated now.

I don't think Lockett being good is a shocker, but I think his value over the last five years is just proof of what happens when the dynasty community misses on a player of a certain archetype that they were never high on. Nobody wants to go out of their way to pay for it. I'm sure there are more examples of that type of player.

I remember him as an early 2nd rounder in rookie drafts, which I think was the right spot for him at the time. He clearly outperformed that pick, but I don't think he was just being grossly underestimated. He was an undersized wide receiver drafted in the third round to a run-first team. He was clearly talented, but that's not always enough.

I'd also disagree with the notion that he was just blowing people away and the dynasty community collectively refused to give him credit. Did some quick research. His career so far:

2015 (age 23) (rookie year): WR42
2016 (age 24): WR64
2017 (age 25): WR55
2018 (age 26): WR16
2019 (age 27): WR13
2020 (age 28): WR8
2021 (age 29): WR23
2022 (age 30): WR12

I've had him the majority of his career, and he's absolutely had (and continues to have) a great run, but he wasn't a startable fantasy WR until 2018 when he was 26. His age 27 season (2019) he was a high-end WR2. By the time he actually put up a WR1 season in 2020, he was 28 and dealing with a maddeningly inconsistent Russ.

Actually looking at it now, maybe it's not that crazy that he really never could get much in the trade market. His age/production definitely warranted a first around 2018-2020, and I think you could've gotten that in a trade for him, but he's basically been a (+/-) WR2 from the age of 26.

If I had a crystal ball before the 2018 season and saw the next five years like the list above, I'd pay a 1st+ for him. Same for 2019 and probably 2020. Definitely not for 2021 and 2022, though.

At the time, I was using DLF's July mocks for his ADP and he was going 3.04 behind players like David Cobb and Cameron Artis-Payne. Even if you go to Mizelle ADP: http://www.mizelle.net/mfl/2015/

August - 2.11
July - 3.04
June - 3.03
May - 2.11
April - 3.05

I don't think the 2015 class was that strong where a player like Lockett, who was drafted 3rd round and productive, should've been going that low. Maybe he went higher in a few leagues, but he was very consistently going third round that summer in mocks.

He flirted with a WR1 season in his 4th year and has basically been on the WR1 map or vicinity ever since. You just posted 2 WR1 seasons, 2 high-end WR2 seasons, and 1 low-end WR2 season. I think that supports the OP's point that during that time, how many people would go out of their way to trade a 1st round pick for him?

I think there are definitely certain (productive) players who people just never feel good about trading a 1st for and Lockett has been one of those guys for the last five years. I think it's a mix of perception and archetype.