We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

[Sriracha]

I was actually thinking the same thing. As the numbers indicate 20/26 rookie QB's supported a WR inside the top 36. Unless this is accounting for the possibility that someone other than Pittman hits that metric.

I read it as 13 of 26 were top 36 (50%). Of those 13, 6 managed top 24. Of those 6, 1 made it to top 12.

So:
1 top 12
An additional 5 between 13 and 24
An additional 7 between 25 and 36

Yes, can be phrased in different ways.

I like Pittman. He’s a really good player but I think he’s good enough that the Colts will likely try to resign. I have very little interest in holding a WR on a bottom 5 passing offense.

I'm not going to do battle with Pullo's Rookie QB stats, as I definitely agree that Pittman has the odds stacked against him this year with AR getting broken in.

*However.*

One of the best pieces of offseason content I've consumed thus far is JJ Zachariason's study on how Read-Option offenses are affecting target distribution, by the very nature of how they are designed. Remember: this is all pretty new data, with the rise of offenses like the Eagles, Falcons, and the new kids on the block this year in the Bears and Colts (and whoever else joins the party).

The basic thesis is this: by the very nature of the RPO, the QB is being taught to throw to the #1 WR if it's there - or to scramble if it's not. Full field progressions are not happening on these plays, and as a result, the target tree is getting condensed to a massive degree - because the options are no longer "find the open 3rd option" - it's either "top pass catcher that the play is designed for gets a target" OR the QB runs, and no target.

This means that the target tree is drastically shrinking for these RPO offenses - and we see that with Pittman's new HC last year with the Eagles, where AJB, Devonta, and to a lesser extent Goedart - were the only targets of true note for the Eagles. JJZ gets into that on his pod with the full numbers if you're curious.

If you're all in on Fields or Richardson going forward - then the best advice I can give you is to get in on the stack and double down on your bet - and to ride this current wave of negativity surrounding their #1 options to get a cheap purchase. They might never learn how to pass properly... but I can almost guarantee that they are going to get their #1 WR's hyper-targeted this year, by the very nature of what their bread-and-butter RPO plays are designed to do.

One of the things I've been debating is if Pittman or Pierce would be favored in an RPO ARich offense. Do you recall if there has been any discussion on the WR archetype being featured as the #1 WR in this "first read or run" scheme?

I don't think there's a scenario where Pittman is not the #1 there; he's just too complete of a receiver.

This is an interesting conversation to bring up regarding Pierce vs Downs, though.. and my money would be on Pierce being the more fantasy productive WR.

[Pullo Vision]

One of the things I've been debating is if Pittman or Pierce would be favored in an RPO ARich offense. Do you recall if there has been any discussion on the WR archetype being featured as the #1 WR in this "first read or run" scheme?

I don't think there's a scenario where Pittman is not the #1 there; he's just too complete of a receiver.

This is an interesting conversation to bring up regarding Pierce vs Downs, though.. and my money would be on Pierce being the more fantasy productive WR.

Definitely agree he's the more complete WR. But, Pierce is a better speed guy. If Indy's coaches can harness that, I could see him being a good match for an offense based on runs by JT/ARich.

[mild]

One of the things I've been debating is if Pittman or Pierce would be favored in an RPO ARich offense. Do you recall if there has been any discussion on the WR archetype being featured as the #1 WR in this "first read or run" scheme?

Great question Pullo. I think Pittman is still without a doubt the top dog here - to cross the Podcast streams, on the AFC South beat writer show for the Rotoworld Football Show they had Nate Atkins from the Indy Star on - and he was borderline dismissive of any non-Pittman option usurping for the #1 role.

You can hear for yourself around the 57 minute mark.

I like Pierce over Downs as the #2 guy personally. I'd hate to be relying on either of them - this is a team that is going to run the ball a lot. One upshot of that will be advantageous looks down the sideline if the defense tries to key on AR/JT in the run, and play single safety down / middle field closed.

AR's best passing attribute is his cannon. Possibly his worst is his ability to hit the shorter slot routes reliably. Give me the downfield "shot play" guy with a chance to score in Pierce over the compiler in Downs - as I fear there just simply won't be enough volume to float that compiler role in Year 1.

[Cameron Giles]

One of the things I've been debating is if Pittman or Pierce would be favored in an RPO ARich offense. Do you recall if there has been any discussion on the WR archetype being featured as the #1 WR in this "first read or run" scheme?

Great question Pullo. I think Pittman is still without a doubt the top dog here - to cross the Podcast streams, on the AFC South beat writer show for the Rotoworld Football Show they had Nate Atkins from the Indy Star on - and he was borderline dismissive of any non-Pittman option usurping for the #1 role.

You can hear for yourself around the 57 minute mark.

I like Pierce over Downs as the #2 guy personally. I'd hate to be relying on either of them - this is a team that is going to run the ball a lot. One upshot of that will be advantageous looks down the sideline if the defense tries to key on AR/JT in the run, and play single safety down / middle field closed.

AR's best passing attribute is his cannon. Possibly his worst is his ability to hit the shorter slot routes reliably. Give me the downfield "shot play" guy with a chance to score in Pierce over the compiler in Downs - as I fear there just simply won't be enough volume to float that compiler role in Year 1.

I posted something about this before, but I think the opposite is where you want to consider thinking. Food for thought:

- 68% of Hurts passes were for less than 10 yards last year. Hurts improved his accuracy in the 0-9 yard range each season under Shane Steichen, completing 74% of his passes in 2021 and nearly 80% of his passes last year in this range.

- So, while Richardson's strength may be the deep ball right now, Steichen is betting that they can improve his deficiencies in the short-to-intermediate game, which will open up the offense like it did for Hurts.

- The Eagles were Top-3 in deep passing TDs last year and Hurts had one of the highest aDOTs in the league, but the Eagles were not one of the most high volume deep ball passing teams in the NFL last year. I think part of that is game script, because they had quite a few games up big, but overall they were just 23rd in team pass plays.

- Hurts was only 12th in dropbacks on deep passing attempts last season, but had an insane 31.8 aDOT on those attempts. The Eagles finished 10th in deep passing yards.

- 2020 under Steichen, Herbert had 126 completions to running backs that led the NFL in 2020; 44 of those completions resulted in first downs, also the most in the league.

- Eagles were Top-6 in YAC/comp the last two seasons.

A lot of this shows how Steichen's offenses rely on pure separators or quick hitters and putting them in position to create after the catch to build to the big plays. So, when I think about things like the above, my train of thought is this:

- Pittman is the clear #1 (well, yeah.). He can do a little bit of everything and is an underrated route runner who's just been limited by low ceiling and inconsistent play at QB. I don't know what that means yards wise given where Richardson is starting at as a QB, but Pittman is the guy.

- Downs is my bet to surpass Pierce at some point long-term as the WR2. Downs role (YAC, short-to-intermediate route prowess, pure separator) fits perfectly for what Steichen wants to rely on to build up to those big shots and it also represents Richardson's most likely path to improving as a QB. If Richardson doesn't improve in this area of the field, he will not live up to the draft hype.

- Pierce fits a particular role in the offense, but he doesn't quite excel in the route running to the level Downs does or the YAC that Pittman does. He has high upside on big plays here, but I'm not sure about the volume long-term. He's a big body deep threat. 11.7 aDOT last year should translate right over.

[Bronco Billy]

Top rushing QBs since 2000, rookie year - top WR on their team (2nd year in 2 cases)

Lamar Jackson - Willie Snead 62/651/1
Justin Fields - Darnell Mooney 81/1055/4
Michael Vick - Insufficient starts 2nd year Brian Finneran 56/838/6
Russell Wilson - Sidney Rice 50/748/7
Kyler Murray - Larry Fitzgerald 75/804/4
Robert Griffin lll - Pierre Garcon 44/643/4
Jalen Hurts - insufficient starts 2nd year DeVonta Smith 64/916/5
Josh Allen - Zay Jones 56/562/7
Cam Newton - Steve Smith 79/1394/7
Daniel Jones - Darius Slayton 48/740/8

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Has a wr ever had such a more sorry bunch of qbs throwing the ball to him throughout his rookie deal.

The corpse of Phillip Rivers
Wentz
Matt Ryan on his death bed
Now Richardson.

[murphysxm]

Has a wr ever had such a more sorry bunch of qbs throwing the ball to him throughout his rookie deal.

The corpse of Phillip Rivers
Wentz
Matt Ryan on his death bed
Now Richardson.

DeAndre Hopkins would like a word

[Cameron Giles]

Has a wr ever had such a more sorry bunch of qbs throwing the ball to him throughout his rookie deal.

The corpse of Phillip Rivers
Wentz
Matt Ryan on his death bed
Now Richardson.

DeAndre Hopkins would like a word

Allen Robinson's college-to-NFL career:

Matt McGloin
Christian Hackenburg
Blake Bortles
Chad Henne
Mitch Trubisky
Nick Foles
Andy Dalton
Justin Fields (rookie)
Matthew Stafford (injury)
Baker Mayfield
John Wolford
Incoming: Kenny Pickett

[CGW]

Has a wr ever had such a more sorry bunch of qbs throwing the ball to him throughout his rookie deal.

The corpse of Phillip Rivers
Wentz
Matt Ryan on his death bed
Now Richardson.

DeAndre Hopkins would like a word

DJMs also worth mentioning - Newtons diminutive years then Heinicke, Grier, Allen, Bridgewater, Walker, Darnold, and Mayfield. Maybe Fields is better than this sorry group?

[j4pac]

Has a wr ever had such a more sorry bunch of qbs throwing the ball to him throughout his rookie deal.

The corpse of Phillip Rivers
Wentz
Matt Ryan on his death bed
Now Richardson.

DeAndre Hopkins would like a word

DeShaun Watson alone makes him a poor comp

[Pullo Vision]

Top rushing QBs since 2000, rookie year - top WR on their team (2nd year in 2 cases)

Lamar Jackson - Willie Snead 62/651/1
Justin Fields - Darnell Mooney 81/1055/4
Michael Vick - Insufficient starts 2nd year Brian Finneran 56/838/6
Russell Wilson - Sidney Rice 50/748/7
Kyler Murray - Larry Fitzgerald 75/804/4
Robert Griffin lll - Pierre Garcon 44/643/4
Jalen Hurts - insufficient starts 2nd year DeVonta Smith 64/916/5
Josh Allen - Zay Jones 56/562/7
Cam Newton - Steve Smith 79/1394/7
Daniel Jones - Darius Slayton 48/740/8

This is cool. I'm a little unclear on the basis that led to this list. Is this the top 10 rookie rushing QBs since 2000?

[Pullo Vision]

One of the things I've been debating is if Pittman or Pierce would be favored in an RPO ARich offense. Do you recall if there has been any discussion on the WR archetype being featured as the #1 WR in this "first read or run" scheme?

Great question Pullo. I think Pittman is still without a doubt the top dog here - to cross the Podcast streams, on the AFC South beat writer show for the Rotoworld Football Show they had Nate Atkins from the Indy Star on - and he was borderline dismissive of any non-Pittman option usurping for the #1 role.

You can hear for yourself around the 57 minute mark.

I like Pierce over Downs as the #2 guy personally. I'd hate to be relying on either of them - this is a team that is going to run the ball a lot. One upshot of that will be advantageous looks down the sideline if the defense tries to key on AR/JT in the run, and play single safety down / middle field closed.

AR's best passing attribute is his cannon. Possibly his worst is his ability to hit the shorter slot routes reliably. Give me the downfield "shot play" guy with a chance to score in Pierce over the compiler in Downs - as I fear there just simply won't be enough volume to float that compiler role in Year 1.

This is great info, thanks for pointing it out. I've stayed away from their pods, except for the occasional bits on Taysom Hill and Etienne/Bigsby. They really need to do a better job of linking the blurbs with the interviews/pods. That's the stuff I'd have expected to see in a news blurb on the old Rotoworld.

I posted something about this before, but I think the opposite is where you want to consider thinking. Food for thought:

- 68% of Hurts passes were for less than 10 yards last year. Hurts improved his accuracy in the 0-9 yard range each season under Shane Steichen, completing 74% of his passes in 2021 and nearly 80% of his passes last year in this range.

- So, while Richardson's strength may be the deep ball right now, Steichen is betting that they can improve his deficiencies in the short-to-intermediate game, which will open up the offense like it did for Hurts.

- The Eagles were Top-3 in deep passing TDs last year and Hurts had one of the highest aDOTs in the league, but the Eagles were not one of the most high volume deep ball passing teams in the NFL last year. I think part of that is game script, because they had quite a few games up big, but overall they were just 23rd in team pass plays.

- Hurts was only 12th in dropbacks on deep passing attempts last season, but had an insane 31.8 aDOT on those attempts. The Eagles finished 10th in deep passing yards.

- 2020 under Steichen, Herbert had 126 completions to running backs that led the NFL in 2020; 44 of those completions resulted in first downs, also the most in the league.

- Eagles were Top-6 in YAC/comp the last two seasons.

A lot of this shows how Steichen's offenses rely on pure separators or quick hitters and putting them in position to create after the catch to build to the big plays. So, when I think about things like the above, my train of thought is this:

- Pittman is the clear #1 (well, yeah.). He can do a little bit of everything and is an underrated route runner who's just been limited by low ceiling and inconsistent play at QB. I don't know what that means yards wise given where Richardson is starting at as a QB, but Pittman is the guy.

- Downs is my bet to surpass Pierce at some point long-term as the WR2. Downs role (YAC, short-to-intermediate route prowess, pure separator) fits perfectly for what Steichen wants to rely on to build up to those big shots and it also represents Richardson's most likely path to improving as a QB. If Richardson doesn't improve in this area of the field, he will not live up to the draft hype.

- Pierce fits a particular role in the offense, but he doesn't quite excel in the route running to the level Downs does or the YAC that Pittman does. He has high upside on big plays here, but I'm not sure about the volume long-term. He's a big body deep threat. 11.7 aDOT last year should translate right over.

Good read. To the underlined, I've been imagining Pierce to be like Gabriel Davis- fits a role well, but not an alpha. Was curious if anyone would make the argument that his team-best downfield speed would help attack a defense cheating up on the JT/AR duo, and his higher efficiency on limited catches would vault him ahead of a compiler like Pittman.

[mild]

AR's best passing attribute is his cannon. Possibly his worst is his ability to hit the shorter slot routes reliably. Give me the downfield "shot play" guy with a chance to score in Pierce over the compiler in Downs - as I fear there just simply won't be enough volume to float that compiler role in Year 1.

I posted something about this before, but I think the opposite is where you want to consider thinking. Food for thought:

- 68% of Hurts passes were for less than 10 yards last year. Hurts improved his accuracy in the 0-9 yard range each season under Shane Steichen, completing 74% of his passes in 2021 and nearly 80% of his passes last year in this range.

- So, while Richardson's strength may be the deep ball right now, Steichen is betting that they can improve his deficiencies in the short-to-intermediate game, which will open up the offense like it did for Hurts.

- The Eagles were Top-3 in deep passing TDs last year and Hurts had one of the highest aDOTs in the league, but the Eagles were not one of the most high volume deep ball passing teams in the NFL last year. I think part of that is game script, because they had quite a few games up big, but overall they were just 23rd in team pass plays.

- Hurts was only 12th in dropbacks on deep passing attempts last season, but had an insane 31.8 aDOT on those attempts. The Eagles finished 10th in deep passing yards.

- 2020 under Steichen, Herbert had 126 completions to running backs that led the NFL in 2020; 44 of those completions resulted in first downs, also the most in the league.

- Eagles were Top-6 in YAC/comp the last two seasons.

A lot of this shows how Steichen's offenses rely on pure separators or quick hitters and putting them in position to create after the catch to build to the big plays...

My good man Cameron! Always love your posts man. I have chewed over this food for thought. I will now (respectfully) cut this argument off at the knees.

I think the obvious place to push back here is in comparing the absolute world-crushing 2022 Eagles to "what might happen with the 2023 Colts". Specifically, you're comparing stats put up by Year 3 Jalen Hurts as reasons for optimism for Year 1 Anthony Richardson.

Now, as the driver of the Jalen Hurts bus here at DLF, I am -legally obligated- to remind you that Year 1 and Year 2 Jalen Hurts was -so bad- as a passer, that this entire board was ready to draft his replacement with what became the Jalen Carter pick. (Hell - if reports are to be believed, even Howie was mulling a Hurts benching by attempting to trade for Russell Wilson)

This is the part where I remind you that Jalen Hurts played four years in college in multiple systems, played (and won!) national championships on the biggest stages, and was the runner up for the Heisman to literally the greatest statistical QB season of all time (Joe Burrow's insane 2019 at LSU).

From a prospect point of view - Anthony Richardson isn't even in the same universe. He played in 12 games as a starter over a 3 year career. He won half of them. He threw 17 TD's to 9 INT's in his one (1) year as a starter. You're comparing him favourably to College Jalen Hurts, who threw 32 TD's to 8 INT's at Oklahoma in 14 games in his final year of college. OK then.

This will be a baptism by fire the likes of which I don't think we're truly prepared for.

Comparing him to Rookie Jalen Hurts is already a massive stretch, and that guy was "bad" by the reckoning of most on this board. Comparing him to 2022 Jalen Hurts is an act of outright f--kin' lunacy. There's just no chance.

That's before we even get to the skill position guys. I'll just say it: if Michael Pittman was on the 2022 Eagles, he'd probably be the 3rd option. Perhaps he's "at best" on semi-equal terms with Devonta Smith. But he's the only one that reasonably belongs in this conversation if you're making this comparison. We can like Pierce and Downs all we like, but neither of them come close to even sniffing the jort-strap of AJB and Devonta Smith as players or prospects. They're not going to fill the same role; if anything they will attempt to fill it by committee.

I don't want to be relying on either of Pierce nor Downs in Year 1. I think the skillset matches Pierce more as of the moment. I'll believe it when I see it on AR suddenly becoming a short-range savant for Downs. I think Pittman has a *chance* to get there as a Top 36 WR this year, as he'll be schemed the reads and is a very good player. Quite likely he's going to be quite up-and-down.

You can't just "fix" short yardage accuracy and footwork. It took both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts until Year 3 to make that leap. AR's footwork is an absolute mess AND he's learning Pro style offense pretty much from scratch as possibly one of the rawest Top 5 selections since... Trey Lance? I struggle to think of a better comparison.

If you're in on Year 1 AR and by extension Michael Pittman, then you're in on an RPO game with a lot of rushing, featuring Pittman as far and away the top target... and then you're crossing your fingers, and strapping in for a bumpy ride.

Please don't make any more 2022 Eagles "Jalen Hurts runner up MVP season" comparisons here. They're just not relevant.

[Bronco Billy]

Top rushing QBs since 2000, rookie year - top WR on their team (2nd year in 2 cases)

Lamar Jackson - Willie Snead 62/651/1
Justin Fields - Darnell Mooney 81/1055/4
Michael Vick - Insufficient starts 2nd year Brian Finneran 56/838/6
Russell Wilson - Sidney Rice 50/748/7
Kyler Murray - Larry Fitzgerald 75/804/4
Robert Griffin lll - Pierre Garcon 44/643/4
Jalen Hurts - insufficient starts 2nd year DeVonta Smith 64/916/5
Josh Allen - Zay Jones 56/562/7
Cam Newton - Steve Smith 79/1394/7
Daniel Jones - Darius Slayton 48/740/8

This is cool. I'm a little unclear on the basis that led to this list. Is this the top 10 rookie rushing QBs since 2000?

Top 10 rushing QBs since 2000 with their top WR as a rookie QB (or 2nd year if they started only a couple of games as a rookie).

[Cameron Giles]

My good man Cameron! Always love your posts man. I have chewed over this food for thought. I will now (respectfully) cut this argument off at the knees.

I think the obvious place to push back here is in comparing the absolute world-crushing 2022 Eagles to "what might happen with the 2023 Colts". Specifically, you're comparing stats put up by Year 3 Jalen Hurts as reasons for optimism for Year 1 Anthony Richardson.

Now, as the driver of the Jalen Hurts bus here at DLF, I am -legally obligated- to remind you that Year 1 and Year 2 Jalen Hurts was -so bad- as a passer, that this entire board was ready to draft his replacement with what became the Jalen Carter pick. (Hell - if reports are to be believed, even Howie was mulling a Hurts benching by attempting to trade for Russell Wilson)

This is the part where I remind you that Jalen Hurts played four years in college in multiple systems, played (and won!) national championships on the biggest stages, and was the runner up for the Heisman to literally the greatest statistical QB season of all time (Joe Burrow's insane 2019 at LSU).

From a prospect point of view - Anthony Richardson isn't even in the same universe. He played in 12 games as a starter over a 3 year career. He won half of them. He threw 17 TD's to 9 INT's in his one (1) year as a starter. You're comparing him favourably to College Jalen Hurts, who threw 32 TD's to 8 INT's at Oklahoma in 14 games in his final year of college. OK then.

This will be a baptism by fire the likes of which I don't think we're truly prepared for.

Comparing him to Rookie Jalen Hurts is already a massive stretch, and that guy was "bad" by the reckoning of most on this board. Comparing him to 2022 Jalen Hurts is an act of outright f--kin' lunacy. There's just no chance.

That's before we even get to the skill position guys. I'll just say it: if Michael Pittman was on the 2022 Eagles, he'd probably be the 3rd option. Perhaps he's "at best" on semi-equal terms with Devonta Smith. But he's the only one that reasonably belongs in this conversation if you're making this comparison. We can like Pierce and Downs all we like, but neither of them come close to even sniffing the jort-strap of AJB and Devonta Smith as players or prospects. They're not going to fill the same role; if anything they will attempt to fill it by committee.

I don't want to be relying on either of Pierce nor Downs in Year 1. I think the skillset matches Pierce more as of the moment. I'll believe it when I see it on AR suddenly becoming a short-range savant for Downs. I think Pittman has a *chance* to get there as a Top 36 WR this year, as he'll be schemed the reads and is a very good player. Quite likely he's going to be quite up-and-down.

You can't just "fix" short yardage accuracy and footwork. It took both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts until Year 3 to make that leap. AR's footwork is an absolute mess AND he's learning Pro style offense pretty much from scratch as possibly one of the rawest Top 5 selections since... Trey Lance? I struggle to think of a better comparison.

If you're in on Year 1 AR and by extension Michael Pittman, then you're in on an RPO game with a lot of rushing, featuring Pittman as far and away the top target... and then you're crossing your fingers, and strapping in for a bumpy ride.

Please don't make any more 2022 Eagles "Jalen Hurts runner up MVP season" comparisons here. They're just not relevant.

I think we're making two different arguments. I'm not comparing Richardson to Hurts or implying that 2022 Hurts is in Richardson's range of outcomes this season. I'm showing you how the offense is supposed to function and where Richardson's path to improvement likely is.

That's why the Philadelphia numbers are important, because those are the types of numbers the Colts want to build to in the future. Long-term, the Colts are not going to do anything if Richardson doesn't improve in the short-to-intermediate game. Again, Hurts last year had 68% of his passing attempts come in that area of the field and to WRs who can make plays after the catch. He also completed 80% of his passes there. That represents a big reason why they were able to set up the deep ball so well and why he was an MVP candidate.

Richardson's strength is the deep ball, but Steichen's offense is not built around high volume deep passing plays. It's built around high efficiency plays setting up the deep ball.

You mentioned Josh Allen, what happened Year 3?

- They traded for Stefon Diggs
- They threw more in the slot to Cole Beasley

Those two boosted their short-to-intermediate passing, which opened up everything else. That is the path to improvement. Those timing routes that nobody can stop, those pure separators who win matchups regularly, and the QB putting more eyes in that area of the field instinctively rather than looking for the big shot. Pittman and Downs are those guys long-term (or players with comparable skillsets). Pierce, I think represents a fraction of it, albeit a very important one.

I think it's very likely that none of the Colts WRs are fantasy relevant this upcoming season. I expect a lot of RPO and a lot of trial and error in the passing game. I'm just giving you food for thought about the type of skillset you should be targeting with these WRs going forward long-term.