Jaxon Smith-Njigba: the thread

[Sriracha]

Depending on the league, Reagor and Ruggs were cheaper than Jefferson. So, that strategy can still blow up in your face pretty big. I don't know if it's necessarily about going for the cheapest WR. And if you moved up from Ruggs/Reagor to Jefferson, it changed your team.

JSN compares much closer to Cee Dee Lamb from that 2020 class than he does Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy was the first WR taken but Lamb was head and shoulders the best analytical prospect given similar draft capital.

Every year is different but this WR class reminds me of 2019's where it was full of a number of WRs with elite strengths coupled with massive weaknesses + a Cee Dee Lamb level prospect in JSN.

I'd expect more than a few of the mid level WRs to see a lot of success in the same way that Deebo, Diontae and McLaurin emerged from that draft class.

What analytics are you using for JSN?

Dominator rating isn't even close. If you're using the 30% threshold for breakout age, which many do, JSN never even broke out. Lamb's YPR nearly doubled JSN's in college, too. Explosive plays were way higher. Jeudy was no slouch at 17.4 YPR. How is he comparable to Lamb on analytics, exactly? Would love it if you could clarify this.

JSN's profile is propped up by being highly productive while sharing the field with 2 WRs drafted in the top 11 (and 2 freshman projected to go in the top 10) and pumping out a 32% marketshare with them as a True Sophomore (2 years younger than them).

It's very similar to the reason Jamarr Chase popped in so many data models despite only having 1 real year of production.

[FantasyFreak]

JSN compares much closer to Cee Dee Lamb from that 2020 class than he does Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy was the first WR taken but Lamb was head and shoulders the best analytical prospect given similar draft capital.

Every year is different but this WR class reminds me of 2019's where it was full of a number of WRs with elite strengths coupled with massive weaknesses + a Cee Dee Lamb level prospect in JSN.

I'd expect more than a few of the mid level WRs to see a lot of success in the same way that Deebo, Diontae and McLaurin emerged from that draft class.

What analytics are you using for JSN?

Dominator rating isn't even close. If you're using the 30% threshold for breakout age, which many do, JSN never even broke out. Lamb's YPR nearly doubled JSN's in college, too. Explosive plays were way higher. Jeudy was no slouch at 17.4 YPR. How is he comparable to Lamb on analytics, exactly? Would love it if you could clarify this.

JSN's profile is propped up by being highly productive while sharing the field with 2 WRs drafted in the top 11 (and 2 freshman projected to go in the top 10) and pumping out a 32% marketshare with them as a True Sophomore (2 years younger than them).

It's very similar to the reason Jamarr Chase popped in so many data models despite only having 1 real year of production.

So what metric is this? "Teammate score", type thing? Is that what you're using when you compare him to Lamb? That's a retroactive metric, so curious if that's what you're using, here.

[Sriracha]

What analytics are you using for JSN?

Dominator rating isn't even close. If you're using the 30% threshold for breakout age, which many do, JSN never even broke out. Lamb's YPR nearly doubled JSN's in college, too. Explosive plays were way higher. Jeudy was no slouch at 17.4 YPR. How is he comparable to Lamb on analytics, exactly? Would love it if you could clarify this.

JSN's profile is propped up by being highly productive while sharing the field with 2 WRs drafted in the top 11 (and 2 freshman projected to go in the top 10) and pumping out a 32% marketshare with them as a True Sophomore (2 years younger than them).

It's very similar to the reason Jamarr Chase popped in so many data models despite only having 1 real year of production.

So what metric is this? "Teammate score", type thing? Is that what you're using when you compare him to Lamb? That's a retroactive metric, so curious if that's what you're using, here.

It's a combination of age adjusted production and "Teammate score", yes.

[FantasyFreak]

JSN's profile is propped up by being highly productive while sharing the field with 2 WRs drafted in the top 11 (and 2 freshman projected to go in the top 10) and pumping out a 32% marketshare with them as a True Sophomore (2 years younger than them).

It's very similar to the reason Jamarr Chase popped in so many data models despite only having 1 real year of production.

So what metric is this? "Teammate score", type thing? Is that what you're using when you compare him to Lamb? That's a retroactive metric, so curious if that's what you're using, here.

It's a combination of age adjusted production and "Teammate score", yes.

Thanks.

[MacDaddy123]

I also felt that JSN was the 2nd "safest" player in this draft class behind Bijan, well behind Bijan.
The QB's all have question marks in my opinion, Gibbs, while very talented, still concerns me with his size and landing spot.
In 1 QB leagues JSN would be my 1.02 in Dynasty PPR leagues.

That said, I also like Addison, and feel that he got a better landing spot for 2023 fantasy.
I think that Addison could be the WR1 of this class in the 2023 season, but I think when all is said and done, looking back 10 years from now, JSN will be the WR1 of this class.

I see no way for JSN to challenge Jefferson or Chase, but I could see him eating like ARSB, Keenan Allen, etc., as a slot monster, and still be very valuable to the dynasty community.

[FantasyFreak]

I also felt that JSN was the 2nd "safest" player in this draft class behind Bijan, well behind Bijan.
The QB's all have question marks in my opinion, Gibbs, while very talented, still concerns me with his size and landing spot.
In 1 QB leagues JSN would be my 1.02 in Dynasty PPR leagues.

That said, I also like Addison, and feel that he got a better landing spot for 2023 fantasy.
I think that Addison could be the WR1 of this class in the 2023 season, but I think when all is said and done, looking back 10 years from now, JSN will be the WR1 of this class.

I see no way for JSN to challenge Jefferson or Chase, but I could see him eating like ARSB, Keenan Allen, etc., as a slot monster, and still be very valuable to the dynasty community.

His interior running as well. Kind of pigeon holes him into more of a scat back type. He will live or die by explosive runs and his receiving. Which, he can do. He definitely has the skill set to be a FF producer, but I think he's lacking the skill set to be a successful interior runner in the NFL.

[mild]

His interior running as well. Kind of pigeon holes him into more of a scat back type. He will live or die by explosive runs and his receiving. Which, he can do. He definitely has the skill set to be a FF producer, but I think he's lacking the skill set to be a successful interior runner in the NFL.

It might be best saved for the official "Jahmyr Gibbs: What's the Verdict?" thread (by all means, I would contribute)

But interior running skills or not, Jahmyr definitely profiles as something special.

Top NCAA RB Seasons by YPRR (2014-2022)
+ Power 5-only, min. 150 routes

1. Christian McCaffrey, 2015 (3.27)
2. Jahmyr Gibbs, 2021 (3.03)
3. Curtis Samuel, 2016 (2.76)
4. Joe Mixon, 2016 (2.70)
5. Wan'Dale Robinson, 2019 (2.53)
6. Alvin Kamara, 2016 (2.39)

#Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs averages more career YPRR (2.47) than WR Zay Flowers (2.16) and TE Dalton Kincaid (2.32)

I'm still struggling to pick who I like more out of Gibbs and JSN in a vacuum. KTC/the Community agrees - that gap has narrowed between them considerably, and seems to fluctuate by the day - Gibbs still with the slight edge.

[Cameron Giles]

His interior running as well. Kind of pigeon holes him into more of a scat back type. He will live or die by explosive runs and his receiving. Which, he can do. He definitely has the skill set to be a FF producer, but I think he's lacking the skill set to be a successful interior runner in the NFL.

It might be best saved for the official "Jahmyr Gibbs: What's the Verdict?" thread (by all means, I would contribute)

But interior running skills or not, Jahmyr definitely profiles as something special.

Top NCAA RB Seasons by YPRR (2014-2022)
+ Power 5-only, min. 150 routes

1. Christian McCaffrey, 2015 (3.27)
2. Jahmyr Gibbs, 2021 (3.03)
3. Curtis Samuel, 2016 (2.76)
4. Joe Mixon, 2016 (2.70)
5. Wan'Dale Robinson, 2019 (2.53)
6. Alvin Kamara, 2016 (2.39)

#Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs averages more career YPRR (2.47) than WR Zay Flowers (2.16) and TE Dalton Kincaid (2.32)

I'm still struggling to pick who I like more out of Gibbs and JSN in a vacuum. KTC/the Community agrees - that gap has narrowed between them considerably, and seems to fluctuate by the day - Gibbs still with the slight edge.

Yeah, the Lions aren't drafting Gibbs to run him up the middle 20 times a game, nor does he need to be really good at that to succeed. He needs to improve at it, but he's never going to be Derrick Henry at that. They need to unlock him as a receiver above anything.

[mild]

Yeah, the Lions aren't drafting Gibbs to run him up the middle 20 times a game, nor does he need to be really good at that to succeed. He needs to improve at it, but he's never going to be Derrick Henry at that. They need to unlock him as a receiver above anything.

Completely agree. Which really just comes down to: do you trust these lunatics to scheme him and use him correctly in that role.

JSN is definitely safer. But Gibbs has all the signs of being the next Austin Ekeler or CMC, right down to the skillset and size.

Weirdly? I think I trust Ben Johnson - at least for Gibbs rookie season before he takes an HC job next offseason.

[nathanq42]

Yeah, the Lions aren't drafting Gibbs to run him up the middle 20 times a game, nor does he need to be really good at that to succeed. He needs to improve at it, but he's never going to be Derrick Henry at that. They need to unlock him as a receiver above anything.

CEH enters the chat

[Cameron Giles]

Yeah, the Lions aren't drafting Gibbs to run him up the middle 20 times a game, nor does he need to be really good at that to succeed. He needs to improve at it, but he's never going to be Derrick Henry at that. They need to unlock him as a receiver above anything.

CEH enters the chat

I wouldn't say that was why he hasn't been good. He's also not as good a prospect.

[Ice]

In my two leagues full of strong owners, one was an IDP, both 1 QB leagues.

JSN went 1.2 and 1.3. I liked both selections. Gibbs went 1.3 and 1.2

I personally see a clear top 3 this draft in 1 QB leagues.


Addison went 1.6 (IDP) and 1.4. I moved into 1.5 to take Will Anderson ahead of Addison but DE's score heavy in our league and are very hard to come by.

I personally thought Addison was a reach at both slots but he is certainly well liked.

[nathanq42]

Yeah, the Lions aren't drafting Gibbs to run him up the middle 20 times a game, nor does he need to be really good at that to succeed. He needs to improve at it, but he's never going to be Derrick Henry at that. They need to unlock him as a receiver above anything.

CEH enters the chat

I wouldn't say that was why he hasn't been good. He's also not as good a prospect.

All I'm saying is that there is no guarantee that a player will be deployed how they should obviously be deployed. It is especially scary considering how swift was used in DET

[JoeJoe88]

CEH enters the chat

I wouldn't say that was why he hasn't been good. He's also not as good a prospect.

All I'm saying is that there is no guarantee that a player will be deployed how they should obviously be deployed. It is especially scary considering how swift was used in DET

I think Swift’s inability to stay off the injury report was the biggest factor in his usage. When they gave him large workloads, he would inevitably get dinged up, so it’s only natural they had to scale his work back.

[FantasyFreak]

I wouldn't say that was why he hasn't been good. He's also not as good a prospect.

All I'm saying is that there is no guarantee that a player will be deployed how they should obviously be deployed. It is especially scary considering how swift was used in DET

I think Swift’s inability to stay off the injury report was the biggest factor in his usage. When they gave him large workloads, he would inevitably get dinged up, so it’s only natural they had to scale his work back.

I agree. Swift was deployed exactly how he should have been. He wasn't a good interior runner, they tried to get him carries on draws and stuff to the outside, and pass him the ball. They gave him a chance to be a high touch back, and he couldn't handle it. He's just not built for it. Gibbs won't be a high touch back either, but he's a better receiver than Swift, and that's where he'll likely be a difference maker. He should get a handful of carries a game, and be used as a weapon in the passing game.