Where are we at with Drake London? Statistically he’s cooled down a lot… top-12 dynasty WR?

[grandmabetty]

I'm curious how long is Arthur smith's leash? I mean they did just take an RB at 9th overall so obviously Atlanta must be committed to his plan but team situation changes all the time. If we love London I wouldn't worry about Arthur too much.

As a London owner clearly I'm trying to convince myself lol

[ericanadian]

I'm curious how long is Arthur smith's leash? I mean they did just take an RB at 9th overall so obviously Atlanta must be committed to his plan but team situation changes all the time. If we love London I wouldn't worry about Arthur too much.

As a London owner clearly I'm trying to convince myself lol

To me, that’s an indication of the opposite. RB is going to give immediate production, which is usually something you do when you need to win now. I think expectations are that Atlanta competes for the division title and anything short of that could see the team move on from Smith.

[Ice]

Not sure what to do with London. I love how he plays and his traits but as Ice said it’s gonna be hard for him to see the volume. I will be drafting Bijan and im not quite sure how much of this Atlanta offense I actually want. I do want to reiterate I love London as a player and see him as a top 2 talent from a good reciever class. Just this situation is horrible and Arthur Smith is the worst

In the same boat as an owner of the 1.1, Pitts and Ridder (as a backup in a 16 team league). Pretty hard to get my head around adding another Atlanta player.

Atlanta led the NFL in rushing attempts and was 3rd in yards gained rushing last year. They were 2nd to last in the league in attempts, completions, and passing yards last season.

I would build around Bijan starting at 1.1 with confidence. London is a more difficult ask even if you own and have him rated very high with Smith in control.

He pretty much spent his pro career with the Titans. They run the ball and play defense. Don't see an epiphany with him and his philosophy anytime soon. They just doubled down on it with the 8th pick.

[ericanadian]

Not sure what to do with London. I love how he plays and his traits but as Ice said it’s gonna be hard for him to see the volume. I will be drafting Bijan and im not quite sure how much of this Atlanta offense I actually want. I do want to reiterate I love London as a player and see him as a top 2 talent from a good reciever class. Just this situation is horrible and Arthur Smith is the worst

In the same boat as an owner of the 1.1, Pitts and Ridder (as a backup in a 16 team league). Pretty hard to get my head around adding another Atlanta player.

Atlanta led the NFL in rushing attempts and was 3rd in yards gained rushing last year. They were 2nd to last in the league in attempts, completions, and passing yards last season.

I would build around Bijan starting at 1.1 with confidence. London is a more difficult ask even if you own and have him rated very high with Smith in control.

He pretty much spent his pro career with the Titans. They run the ball and play defense. Don't see an epiphany with him and his philosophy anytime soon. They just doubled down on it with the 8th pick.

Oh, I’m not getting cute with the 1.1. It was in reference to making an effort to acquire London, which isn’t going to happen for exactly the reasons you state.

[Cameron Giles]

OK, so it's based on Matt Harmon's subjective opinion in part then. Does he do all the charting, or does he hire people to do it now? I know he started off doing it all. If you don't know, that's cool, just thought you might know without having to search.

I was under the impression that he's still doing it all. Happy to be corrected on that.

I would happily see a football study on WR's that isn't subjective to someone's opinion, if you have one!

No, I don't mean it as a negative. All these metrics, like yards created etc. are based on film watching, to an extent (part of what I find so humorous about the film vs analytics debate).

I just think it's better if Matt's doing it all, because the metrics would be more accurate if it's just him doing it, because the results would be more consistent than if say 12 different people were charting routes of different players, with one guy doing these ten guys, and someone else doing another ten guys etc.

FWIW, Harmon was one of the main analysts pouring water on the "London can't separate" fire that many here were running with. He did a tape study and found that London's separation was more/less around Ja'Marr Chase's separation numbers in LSU.

So, it turns out he was right.

[Pullo Vision]

I'm curious how long is Arthur smith's leash? I mean they did just take an RB at 9th overall so obviously Atlanta must be committed to his plan but team situation changes all the time. If we love London I wouldn't worry about Arthur too much.

As a London owner clearly I'm trying to convince myself lol

Everything I've read is Smith's seat is ice cold.

[Jigga94]

I'm curious how long is Arthur smith's leash? I mean they did just take an RB at 9th overall so obviously Atlanta must be committed to his plan but team situation changes all the time. If we love London I wouldn't worry about Arthur too much.

As a London owner clearly I'm trying to convince myself lol

Everything I've read is Smith's seat is ice cold.

Then maybe he's not a good fit for Hotlanta

[ericanadian]

I'm curious how long is Arthur smith's leash? I mean they did just take an RB at 9th overall so obviously Atlanta must be committed to his plan but team situation changes all the time. If we love London I wouldn't worry about Arthur too much.

As a London owner clearly I'm trying to convince myself lol

Everything I've read is Smith's seat is ice cold.

Back to back 7-10 seasons. Blank is fairly patient by NFL owner standards, but I would think he’ll expect progress here in year three. If that progress doesn’t come to fruition, that seat can heat up in a hurry.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

If. you are a fan but worried about situation the dude is still so young. I'd be all over buying at the discount and expecting things really turn around. Almost like he is a rookie where you are drafting for talent and not situation but in this example we have information that he might be really good and we are still getting a discount on him.

[Cameron Giles]

I'm curious how long is Arthur smith's leash? I mean they did just take an RB at 9th overall so obviously Atlanta must be committed to his plan but team situation changes all the time. If we love London I wouldn't worry about Arthur too much.

As a London owner clearly I'm trying to convince myself lol

Everything I've read is Smith's seat is ice cold.

Back to back 7-10 seasons. Blank is fairly patient by NFL owner standards, but I would think he’ll expect progress here in year three. If that progress doesn’t come to fruition, that seat can heat up in a hurry.

Smith is going to get grace, because Atlanta hasn't invested significantly in a QB and yet they've been very competitive. I think you can criticize them though for going with a TE and RB over potential franchise QBs though.

They're a sneaky playoff pick this year with an improved defense and an elite run game in a division that's up for grabs. I don't think Smith is going anywhere.

[ThirdWW]

I keep seeing targets and opportunity won’t be there. Falcons had 415 passes last year while Ridder averaged 29 per game. If you extrapolate that out to 17 games it’s just under 500 attempts, a 19% increase. If target share remains the same, that’s 140 targets for London. Add in that a higher percent of targets will be catchable and I can easily see a production spike for London. Additionally, Bijan will move the chains, keeping the offense on the field longer, leading to more pass attempts.

This is all without going into his Ridder split extrapolation, because I’ll assume it’ll be tempered with Pitts back in the lineup.

Yea, I own London. Yes, I want him to do good. But this line of thinking isn’t a pipe dream, it’s using available data to predict outcomes.

[Ice]

I keep seeing targets and opportunity won’t be there. Falcons had 415 passes last year while Ridder averaged 29 per game. If you extrapolate that out to 17 games it’s just under 500 attempts, a 19% increase. If target share remains the same, that’s 140 targets for London. Add in that a higher percent of targets will be catchable and I can easily see a production spike for London. Additionally, Bijan will move the chains, keeping the offense on the field longer, leading to more pass attempts.

This is all without going into his Ridder split extrapolation, because I’ll assume it’ll be tempered with Pitts back in the lineup.

Yea, I own London. Yes, I want him to do good. But this line of thinking isn’t a pipe dream, it’s using available data to predict outcomes.

Some peoples pipe dreams are other peoples fantasies.

In all seriousness though it is what one does with the targets provided.

Waddle had the same number of targets last year as Drake. 117 (82 and 83 catchable)
One averaged 15.6 points per game.
One averaged 10.2 points per game.

London did have a way higher target share number but also had way lower yards per catch numbers.

To your point, there is plenty of room for improvement.

[Patsfan86]

I ended up trading him away for the 1.03. I just didn’t want him and Bijan on my team. I love Drake as a player so i have some regret. It may bite me. But I feel like Smith has job security, the team actually overperformed expectations last year. They are gonna run the ball and run it a lot. Drake will be blocking more than we want. Think he ends up being a great NFL player but the volume just won’t be there for fantasy. We shall see.

[Cameron Giles]

I ended up trading him away for the 1.03. I just didn’t want him and Bijan on my team. I love Drake as a player so i have some regret. It may bite me. But I feel like Smith has job security, the team actually overperformed expectations last year. They are gonna run the ball and run it a lot. Drake will be blocking more than we want. Think he ends up being a great NFL player but the volume just won’t be there for fantasy. We shall see.

We have to stop trying to box players into this so early into their careers.

London is 21 years old and coming off a 72/866/4 season as a rookie. He has the production profile, draft capital, and talent you want in a stud WR. How are we arleady putting a cap on what he can be? I don't think it's an awful trade, but just seems very premature.

[Ice]

I ended up trading him away for the 1.03. I just didn’t want him and Bijan on my team. I love Drake as a player so i have some regret. It may bite me. But I feel like Smith has job security, the team actually overperformed expectations last year. They are gonna run the ball and run it a lot. Drake will be blocking more than we want. Think he ends up being a great NFL player but the volume just won’t be there for fantasy. We shall see.

We have to stop trying to box players into this so early into their careers.

London is 21 years old and coming off a 72/866/4 season as a rookie. He has the production profile, draft capital, and talent you want in a stud WR. How are we arleady putting a cap on what he can be? I don't think it's an awful trade, but just seems very premature.

So you're saying it's wrong to think London will just be a slower less productive version of Dalton Kincaid when all is said and done?