Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Halfbaked, you have your opinion and you're sticking to it. That's fine. For everyone else;

1) There's no narrative here. Had never heard the name Jonathan Mingo up until a few weeks ago. I don't watch college football. After he was drafted, I figured I'd dig into his profile to see if he is worth drafting in my rookie drafts. I let the facts dictate my opinion of him.

2) I set a weight limit because "beanpole wrs" (wr's that are tall but don't weigh very much) bust at an absurdly high rate. I know this because I've been researching this for many years.

3) It's not unreasonable to think that if he didn't break his foot, he would have been an "early-declare" last year. Of course he did break his foot, and therefor he's not an early declare, and so we do have to view that as a negative. That said, you may want to adjust just how negatively you view this non-early declare status given the unusual circumstances.

4) Something Ice mentioned that people don't seem to be acknowledging, is the team ran... a LOT. So Mingo doesn't have the gaudy, eye-popping numbers, but they're still within acceptable range as I outline in my initial post.

5) I've already had this same discussion with "early declare, breakout age is everything" posters 2 years ago with regards to Michael Pittman. Yes, those things matter but they're only one piece of the puzzle. They're not the be-all end-all. If the rest of the profile is really good, you don't just ignore the player because they didn't declare early.

6) I watched his film, and thought it was good. It wasn't AJ Brown level good, but I thought it was good nonetheless. I also value Lance Zierlein's opinion and he thought pretty highly of him, saying "The career production is nothing special, but it’s clear he’s put time and effort into his craft. He runs crisp, well-paced routes and ramps up his focus when it’s time to go get the football." Mingo is not the perfect prospect by any means, but I think people are really underrating many aspects of his game. He's not just your typical big rando wr that only gets by because he's big and fast and athletic. He does have some skill and nuance to his game that I believe can be honed at the next level.

[wickerkat1212]

And I think with the way this class is playing out all three of these guys are dart throws about a round earlier than I like to start calling them dart throws. People who said get extra mid/late 2nds and early 3rds were right. Take 2-3 shots. I've been trying to get more of those picks but not much luck. I had to give up a lot to get to Bijan in three leagues.

[halfbaked88]

I'm not against taking a shot on Mingo. Or Tillman or Reed.

If I had to pick today as a rebuilder, I'm probably taking Mingo solely because the community values him the most and then I'm selling as soon as he has some good games.

If I'm drafting to keep, or contending now or soon, I think Tillman has the best QB of the three. DPJ is on the last year of his contract and Tillman almost serves as a direct drop-in replacement penciled in for the role. Tillman was playing alongside other NFL talent WR (Hyatt) and unlike Hyatt, who was lining up in gadget roles and routes, Tillman was running real routes as the outside WR.

Reed may got lost in a committee. And I have no idea if Jordan Love is any good. They just gave him a 1 year extension... one year... doesn't sound too confident to me. GB could be worse than we've seen them in a long, long time.

[Ice]

I just completed an IDP draft and picked Mingo at 1.9, the 5th WR drafted and then Tillman at 4.5 as the 10th WR selected.

I like my value on Mingo and loved it on Tillman. I have Tillman rated higher than Rice, Reed, Mims, and Hyatt who went between my two picks WR picks.

I get some are fixated on breakout age and college production but those are just confirming tools IMO but if it works for some no issue. College's run vastly different offensive schemes and typically are one read basic systems with average coaches compared to NFL. Easy to understand how Jarvis Landry can have more catches than Odell his last year or Moore having more receptions than Mingo as an example.

One factor some fantasy players don't consider much is the system a player is drafted in. Does anyone really believe as an example, that 175 pound Jordan Addison will ever challenge Just Jefferson as a WR 1 on his own team. Regardless of his breakout or college production, he will be drafted high and then be a WR2 on his own team for the next 1/2 decade. There are exceptions but he is most likely a WR3 in fantasy in that system. His systems RED Flags are more concerning than a broken foot in 2021. I like the player but I personally don't draft players in round 1 if they have little hope of being a WR1 on their own team.

Mingo and Tillman both have a better shot at being the WR1 on their team in a couple of years unless a major system change occurs. Mingo isn't even fighting a legit #1 and Cooper isn't getting younger and paid a fortune in soon to be cash strapped Cleveland.

These are very important fantasy considerations when drafting a player in this game.

NFL teams don't care about Mingo's use in college. Their tape, his testing, his health, and the interview matters. His tape when given the opportunity is very good. He is relentless over the middle and shows no fear. He was drafted in the 2nd round because he can play very good football and sure looks to fit the WR possession role he was drafted to fill. I am 100% sure Carolina studied every single one of his college plays. The plays he doesn't catch the ball are just as important to the NFL scouting department.

[YouMightDieTryin]

I just completed an IDP draft and picked Mingo at 1.9, the 5th WR drafted and then Tillman at 4.5 as the 10th WR selected.

I like my value on Mingo and loved it on Tillman. I have Tillman rated higher than Rice, Reed, Mims, and Hyatt who went between my two picks WR picks.

I get some are fixated on breakout age and college production but those are just confirming tools IMO but if it works for some no issue. College's run vastly different offensive schemes and typically are one read basic systems with average coaches compared to NFL. Easy to understand how Jarvis Landry can have more catches than Odell his last year or Moore having more receptions than Mingo as an example.

One factor some fantasy players don't consider much is the system a player is drafted in. Does anyone really believe as an example, that 175 pound Jordan Addison will ever challenge Just Jefferson as a WR 1 on his own team. Regardless of his breakout or college production, he will be drafted high and then be a WR2 on his own team for the next 1/2 decade. There are exceptions but he is most likely a WR3 in fantasy in that system. His systems RED Flags are more concerning than a broken foot in 2021. I like the player but I personally don't draft players in round 1 if they have little hope of being a WR1 on their own team.

Mingo and Tillman both have a better shot at being the WR1 on their team in a couple of years unless a major system change occurs. Mingo isn't even fighting a legit #1 and Cooper isn't getting younger and paid a fortune in soon to be cash strapped Cleveland.

These are very important fantasy considerations when drafting a player in this game.

NFL teams don't care about Mingo's use in college. Their tape, his testing, his health, and the interview matters. His tape when given the opportunity is very good. He is relentless over the middle and shows no fear. He was drafted in the 2nd round because he can play very good football and sure looks to fit the WR possession role he was drafted to fill. I am 100% sure Carolina studied every single one of his college plays. The plays he doesn't catch the ball are just as important to the NFL scouting department.

Thielen proved just because he wasn't WR1 doesn't mean he couldn't put up WR1 numbers for a few years. Minnesota can easily support 2 WR. My only qualm is potentially losing Cousins next year. They could also blow everything completely up and trade JJ for a huge haul if they don't want to pay him or if he doesn't want to stay in the dumpster fire. That's the most farfetched scenario, but one that is plausible.

Mingo seems like he's going to be highly over-drafted due to his current situation and the lack of other options. He could be WR1 on the Panthers, but no one knows what that offense is actually going to look like. I'd much rather take a flier on a RB in the late 1st and take Tillman in the late 2nd than visa versa.

[Ice]

I just completed an IDP draft and picked Mingo at 1.9, the 5th WR drafted and then Tillman at 4.5 as the 10th WR selected.

I like my value on Mingo and loved it on Tillman. I have Tillman rated higher than Rice, Reed, Mims, and Hyatt who went between my two picks WR picks.

I get some are fixated on breakout age and college production but those are just confirming tools IMO but if it works for some no issue. College's run vastly different offensive schemes and typically are one read basic systems with average coaches compared to NFL. Easy to understand how Jarvis Landry can have more catches than Odell his last year or Moore having more receptions than Mingo as an example.

One factor some fantasy players don't consider much is the system a player is drafted in. Does anyone really believe as an example, that 175 pound Jordan Addison will ever challenge Just Jefferson as a WR 1 on his own team. Regardless of his breakout or college production, he will be drafted high and then be a WR2 on his own team for the next 1/2 decade. There are exceptions but he is most likely a WR3 in fantasy in that system. His systems RED Flags are more concerning than a broken foot in 2021. I like the player but I personally don't draft players in round 1 if they have little hope of being a WR1 on their own team.

Mingo and Tillman both have a better shot at being the WR1 on their team in a couple of years unless a major system change occurs. Mingo isn't even fighting a legit #1 and Cooper isn't getting younger and paid a fortune in soon to be cash strapped Cleveland.

These are very important fantasy considerations when drafting a player in this game.

NFL teams don't care about Mingo's use in college. Their tape, his testing, his health, and the interview matters. His tape when given the opportunity is very good. He is relentless over the middle and shows no fear. He was drafted in the 2nd round because he can play very good football and sure looks to fit the WR possession role he was drafted to fill. I am 100% sure Carolina studied every single one of his college plays. The plays he doesn't catch the ball are just as important to the NFL scouting department.

Thielen proved just because he wasn't WR1 doesn't mean he couldn't put up WR1 numbers for a few years. Minnesota can easily support 2 WR. My only qualm is potentially losing Cousins next year. They could also blow everything completely up and trade JJ for a huge haul if they don't want to pay him or if he doesn't want to stay in the dumpster fire. That's the most farfetched scenario, but one that is plausible.

Mingo seems like he's going to be highly over-drafted due to his current situation and the lack of other options. He could be WR1 on the Panthers, but no one knows what that offense is actually going to look like. I'd much rather take a flier on a RB in the late 1st and take Tillman in the late 2nd than visa versa.

It was an example and as I said there are exceptions, that said, the big TE they traded for will gobble up a lot of targets. As their defense improves they will play a bit more ball control.

I expect that position on the Vikings to max out at around 70 receptions in a good year. He is a very safe pick but IMO he is closer to a WR3 on a fantasy roster than a WR1 and I like the player. There are a lot of fantasy levels to consider. NFL wise it was a very good pick IMO.

No telling if Mingo will be over drafted on some boards but based on your rankings he will. On my Draft Board, Mingo and Tillman both fell to me. In the end it is determined by our respective rankings.

Neither one of these players will even start for me as a rookie on my fantasy teams unless I have injury issues. The only sure fire Fantasy starter this year on my teams at WR would have been JSN due to his slot expertise and incredible quickness. He also benefits from an extremely accurate mid range QB and 2 plus WR's on the outside. He looks like a legit plug and play on good team.

I am well aware this WR class doesn't appear all that strong but I see a few diamonds. Overall this class looks to be filled with good WR2 types but I am looking for true WR1's or 100 catch potential guys as they learn the NFL game.

[YouMightDieTryin]

I appreciate the insight Ice. Thank you.

[Sriracha]

It was an example and as I said there are exceptions, that said, the big TE they traded for will gobble up a lot of targets. As their defense improves they will play a bit more ball control.

I expect that position on the Vikings to max out at around 70 receptions in a good year. He is a very safe pick but IMO he is closer to a WR3 on a fantasy roster than a WR1 and I like the player. There are a lot of fantasy levels to consider. NFL wise it was a very good pick IMO.

No telling if Mingo will be over drafted on some boards but based on your rankings he will. On my Draft Board, Mingo and Tillman both fell to me. In the end it is determined by our respective rankings.

Neither one of these players will even start for me as a rookie on my fantasy teams unless I have injury issues. The only sure fire Fantasy starter this year on my teams at WR would have been JSN due to his slot expertise and incredible quickness. He also benefits from an extremely accurate mid range QB and 2 plus WR's on the outside. He looks like a legit plug and play on good team.

Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn combined for 197 targets last year and Hock has never been efficient with his opportunity.

So long as Kirk and this offensive coaching staff remain in place I'd argue that Addison has the best situation of any rookie WR this year.

I am well aware this WR class doesn't appear all that strong but I see a few diamonds. Overall this class looks to be filled with good WR2 types but I am looking for true WR1's or 100 catch potential guys as they learn the NFL game.

This is very true and reminds me a bit of the 2019 WR class that had guys like Deebo, AJB, DK, Diontae, McLaurin emerge in the 2nd and 3rd round.

There's a lot of uncertainty with who emerges from this bucket since these are flawed WRs with strong strengths and big weaknesses.

[frerichs5]

Apologize for off topic a little, but I don’t get the top out at 70 targets in a good year for Addison. Theilen and KJ Osborn both averaged the same 5.8/week (64 total each) in the 11 games with Hock there. That’s a 17 game pace of 98-99 targets for option #3 and option #4 in that offense. I’d argue Addison’s talent will demand more than those two, but even if not…seems closer to 100 is a better number. Unless you’re betting on a major drop off in number of pass attempts.

[Jigga94]

I agree with the notion that Addison profiles as a WR2 for the NFL (JJ all but guarantees that in for the foreseeable future) and a WR2/3 for fantasy. Sure, there are Devonta Smiths of the world who are just that talented and can hit low end WR1 numbers for fantasy, but I don't expect that from most.

I also agree that Mingo/Tillman could hit the WR1 upside, but they have a much lower shot of doing this than Addison does at being a solid WR2 at least imo. All about team building and risk tolerance. Higher floor/Low Ceiling vs Boom/bust

[Hjorimir]

Mingo just went 12th overall in one of my leagues. I get the appeal. After the Flowers/Achane tier, it's the wild, wild West. You can pretty much make an argument for or against the next heap of prospects.

[Jigga94]

Mingo just went 12th overall in one of my leagues. I get the appeal. After the Flowers/Achane tier, it's the wild, wild West. You can pretty much make an argument for or against the next heap of prospects.

After the top 3 (or 6 in SF), there's a lot of players that are fair game

[FantasyFreak]

Johnny Mingo, he's your huckleberry.

[Forza_Azzurri]

Johnny Mingo, he's your huckleberry.

Oh ... that's good.

[Ice]

Apologize for off topic a little, but I don’t get the top out at 70 targets in a good year for Addison. Theilen and KJ Osborn both averaged the same 5.8/week (64 total each) in the 11 games with Hock there. That’s a 17 game pace of 98-99 targets for option #3 and option #4 in that offense. I’d argue Addison’s talent will demand more than those two, but even if not…seems closer to 100 is a better number. Unless you’re betting on a major drop off in number of pass attempts.

Just to set the record straight, I am pretty sure I said 70 RECEPTIONS not targets. If he plays great he will be around 110 targets to hit that number.