Don't disagree but it sure is nice when talent goes to an ideal landing spot without equal or better players already there.murphysxm wrote: ↑Sun Apr 30, 2023 4:25 pm I always enjoy watching the landing spot overreactions this soon after a draft. Somebody said it earlier that this will be a rookie draft that rewards talent evaluators that don’t rely as heavily on landing spot. Should be a fun fantasy rookie draft to look back on.
2023 Draft
Re: 2023 Draft
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Re: 2023 Draft
What I did was I tracked every teams draft picks on a spreadsheet where you could easily see exactly who and how many players in each round that teams were picking. After a few years I realized I was making very few 2nd round picks, realized that my "trading up" approach was terrible, seeing that people were landing great players in the 2nd round especially, but also the 3rd at times. As much as we can dig into players, at the end of the day it's a lot of randomness involved that we can't account for. Their work ethic, injuries, etc. It's probably different in 14-16 team leagues, I have a 16-team contender that I'm constantly selling my entire draft picks for proven players.Lumps wrote: ↑Sun Apr 30, 2023 3:45 pmThis was a very interesting perspective to read. Very divergent from me, as I am a “go get your guy” kind of manager. Usually, I wind up with depth problems.Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Sun Apr 30, 2023 9:59 amI looked back on this in one of my leagues and on average you get about 2-3 startable players per year in the 3rd round. Some notable examples would be Dak, Kupp, McLaurin, James Conner, Goedert. Last year Allgeier and potentially Sam Howell (and potentially Brian robinson). Year before that you had Rhamandre. Of course it will be different for every league. So ~20% chance of getting a usable fantasy asset really isn’t that bad. The 4th round is where things really drop off a cliff.Patsfan86 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 30, 2023 9:41 am
I used the words alternate universe for a reason. I really just meant they have a lot of talent Imo but other things have happened or their personalities take away from that talent. I mean Boutte in the 3rd offers no risk Imo, how often do 3rd round picks even work? May as well take these guys there.
I have a 14 team 2 QB devy league and I’m go full Rams “eff then picks” as far as the rookie draft 2nd and 3rd rounds. But, each year, as we all do, I get that desire when I’m watching the 2nd and 3rd round from the sidelines as regardless of the devy depletion I’m still wanting someone.
I’ll think this over, thanks for posting.
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Re: 2023 Draft
Draft capital ideally should be what confirms your prior analysis and evaluations on players. Landing spot is just a bonus. Rarely should it elevate lower ranked players into higher tiers. I tend to lower the players that need to be lowered down my rankings based on the draft capital and eventually the board shakes it how I think it should look.Ice wrote: ↑Sun Apr 30, 2023 4:31 pmDon't disagree but it sure is nice when talent goes to an ideal landing spot without equal or better players already there.murphysxm wrote: ↑Sun Apr 30, 2023 4:25 pm I always enjoy watching the landing spot overreactions this soon after a draft. Somebody said it earlier that this will be a rookie draft that rewards talent evaluators that don’t rely as heavily on landing spot. Should be a fun fantasy rookie draft to look back on.
It's not getting the draft capital expected that should expose certain players (especially RB) and cause re-evaluation. Without that DC - if landing spot is the only thing holding them up that's when I get myself into trouble.
If anything using landing spots as tiebreakers between very similar prospects is a perfectly fine way of utilizing that data point. It should not weigh that heavily nearly as much as draft capital, college production, athletics, etc (depending on position)
Re: 2023 Draft
I just traded 1.03 and 1.05 for 1.02 and 2 23 3rds. That locks up Bijan and Gibbs for me. I felt it was a must do. Locking up the two highest drafted RBs in years in a 1 QB feels pretty big. I don’t like spending huge draft cap on RBs but this felt like I’d be getting a huge advantage having both Gibbs and Bijan on my team. Def an overpay on paper no matter how down someone is on this class but again I felt like this was a must do
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Re: 2023 Draft
That second point is my concern. With the murkiness at WR in GB, I was hoping a single TE would get a shot at dominating the position's snaps. Instead, we get two TEs with good receiving skills tripping into each other. The only saving grace is their receiving skills don't directly overlap, though I wouldn't exactly call them complementary.moishetreats wrote: ↑Sun Apr 30, 2023 3:33 pmI think there are two seemingly contradictory answers, both of which can still be true at the same time:Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Sun Apr 30, 2023 1:47 pm Why did GB use two day 2 picks on TE? Are they just putting Musgrave and Kraft in a pit and saying best man wins the majority of the snaps?
1) The GB offense (clearly) needs a productive TE. So they drafted two, more likely insuring they'd get one (the Packers, by the way, have doubled and tripled down on a position of need in a draft a LOT over the years); and
2) LaFleur's vision for his offense includes a lot of 2TE sets, including one being used at times in the FB role.
I was watching both for their landing spots and this was disheartening.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
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Re: 2023 Draft
Jags first round pick was needed. Hope he can play well right away. Worried about Lawrence losing both his starting tackles. Going to be a tough go, early on.
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Re: 2023 Draft
From a real football standpoint, I don't love it, but I don't hate it. But, I think it's clear based on draft capital that Musgrave is the guy to target there. Kraft went a round later and is coming from a smaller school. So, he's tougher to project.Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Sun Apr 30, 2023 8:21 pm
That second point is my concern. With the murkiness at WR in GB, I was hoping a single TE would get a shot at dominating the position's snaps. Instead, we get two TEs with good receiving skills tripping into each other. The only saving grace is their receiving skills don't directly overlap, though I wouldn't exactly call them complementary.
I was watching both for their landing spots and this was disheartening.
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Re: 2023 Draft
Are you saying the Cowboys dropped a "Deuce" with that pick? To stick with the Cowboys/Deuce theme....is this what you're sayingBot101 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 29, 2023 5:01 pmDont be a fool. Hes 5'5" 179 lbs and ran a 4.56 at his pro day. You are lighting your pick on fire the same way those idiots in Dallas just did with most of this class this year. Luke freaking Schoonmaker, a nearly 25 year old project TE in rnd 2? I am so angry that I dont even know how to process my anger into something productive right now.Rosenbluu wrote: ↑Sat Apr 29, 2023 4:43 pmLove takes like this, personally when I watch the kid play I see talent and based on what I've watched he has football speed. Depending on how our draft ends up I could see myself taking in the late 2nd-mid 3rdlukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 29, 2023 4:16 pm Deuce Vaughn to Dallas? Welp, RIP Tony Pollard. Your time as the man was fun while it lasted
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Re: 2023 Draft
I totally get the moves from a real football perspective but not feeling it for fantasy.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 5:25 amFrom a real football standpoint, I don't love it, but I don't hate it. But, I think it's clear based on draft capital that Musgrave is the guy to target there. Kraft went a round later and is coming from a smaller school. So, he's tougher to project.Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Sun Apr 30, 2023 8:21 pm
That second point is my concern. With the murkiness at WR in GB, I was hoping a single TE would get a shot at dominating the position's snaps. Instead, we get two TEs with good receiving skills tripping into each other. The only saving grace is their receiving skills don't directly overlap, though I wouldn't exactly call them complementary.
I was watching both for their landing spots and this was disheartening.
I'll have to watch some film to confirm, but based on scouts' takes, I'd prefer Kraft between the two, and that's before accounting for dynasty ADP cost. If they can manufacture touches for Watson, they can do the same for him. Just like with running QBs that need to work on passing, it's a short term solution contingent on developing route running skills.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
Re: 2023 Draft
FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:11 amAre you saying the Cowboys dropped a "Deuce" with that pick? To stick with the Cowboys/Deuce theme....is this what you're sayingBot101 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 29, 2023 5:01 pmDont be a fool. Hes 5'5" 179 lbs and ran a 4.56 at his pro day. You are lighting your pick on fire the same way those idiots in Dallas just did with most of this class this year. Luke freaking Schoonmaker, a nearly 25 year old project TE in rnd 2? I am so angry that I dont even know how to process my anger into something productive right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG_dGG_wAYM
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Re: 2023 Draft
Completely agree, I was worried when they lost Taylor in FA, then the ped suspension made OT a huge draft need for them. Great get for them.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Sun Apr 30, 2023 10:27 pm Jags first round pick was needed. Hope he can play well right away. Worried about Lawrence losing both his starting tackles. Going to be a tough go, early on.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
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Re: 2023 Draft
I'm with you on all this.Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:39 am I totally get the moves from a real football perspective but not feeling it for fantasy.
I'll have to watch some film to confirm, but based on scouts' takes, I'd prefer Kraft between the two, and that's before accounting for dynasty ADP cost.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball
QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble
2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th
12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball
QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186
IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball
QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble
2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th
12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball
QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186
IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --
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Re: 2023 Draft
7 RB's drafted in the first 3 rounds.
14 in total. The lowest amount since the year 2000.
I've been saying it for months, that this class was not living up to the hype, and was a lot weaker than first anticipated. The RB class is where it kind of fell apart quite a bit, in terms of the missed analysis. TE's look good, WR's not so strong, QB's it's OK. The RB class became a disaster. Was supposed to be it's strength, a year ago.
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Re: 2023 Draft
I'll eat crow on this one. I'm still very surprised that this draft actually had less RBs drafted than last years. And, it's not like last year's RB group even projects better long-term.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 9:05 am7 RB's drafted in the first 3 rounds.
14 in total. The lowest amount since the year 2000.
I've been saying it for months, that this class was not living up to the hype, and was a lot weaker than first anticipated. The RB class is where it kind of fell apart quite a bit, in terms of the missed analysis. TE's look good, WR's not so strong, QB's it's OK. The RB class became a disaster. Was supposed to be it's strength, a year ago.
It remains a deep class though, with a lot of value picks to be made in the 2nd and beyond, but the appeal was to expect many RBs going Day 2 or early Day 3 at the worst, and that did not happen.
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Re: 2023 Draft
I haven't seen this mentioned, but in a draft where RB values were getting killed all over the place, it was awesome for Rhamondre. Considering what the Pats usually do it was extra surprising.
10 Team - 0.5 PPR - QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, FLEX, DEF
QB: J. Allen, Lance
RB: Kamara, Ekeler, Rhamondre, Bijan, Montgomery, Kendre Miller, Tank Bigsby, Damien Harris
WR: Diggs, M. Brown, Aiyuk, Pittman, Smith-Ngjiba, Dotson, Sutton, Jayden Reed, Boutte
TE: Kittle, Pat Freiermuth, T. McBride, C. Okonkwo
QB: J. Allen, Lance
RB: Kamara, Ekeler, Rhamondre, Bijan, Montgomery, Kendre Miller, Tank Bigsby, Damien Harris
WR: Diggs, M. Brown, Aiyuk, Pittman, Smith-Ngjiba, Dotson, Sutton, Jayden Reed, Boutte
TE: Kittle, Pat Freiermuth, T. McBride, C. Okonkwo
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