2023 Draft

[Ice]

I always enjoy watching the landing spot overreactions this soon after a draft. Somebody said it earlier that this will be a rookie draft that rewards talent evaluators that don’t rely as heavily on landing spot. Should be a fun fantasy rookie draft to look back on.

Don't disagree but it sure is nice when talent goes to an ideal landing spot without equal or better players already there.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I used the words alternate universe for a reason. I really just meant they have a lot of talent Imo but other things have happened or their personalities take away from that talent. I mean Boutte in the 3rd offers no risk Imo, how often do 3rd round picks even work? May as well take these guys there.

I looked back on this in one of my leagues and on average you get about 2-3 startable players per year in the 3rd round. Some notable examples would be Dak, Kupp, McLaurin, James Conner, Goedert. Last year Allgeier and potentially Sam Howell (and potentially Brian robinson). Year before that you had Rhamandre. Of course it will be different for every league. So ~20% chance of getting a usable fantasy asset really isn’t that bad. The 4th round is where things really drop off a cliff.

This was a very interesting perspective to read. Very divergent from me, as I am a “go get your guy” kind of manager. Usually, I wind up with depth problems.

I have a 14 team 2 QB devy league and I’m go full Rams “eff then picks” as far as the rookie draft 2nd and 3rd rounds. But, each year, as we all do, I get that desire when I’m watching the 2nd and 3rd round from the sidelines as regardless of the devy depletion I’m still wanting someone.

I’ll think this over, thanks for posting.

What I did was I tracked every teams draft picks on a spreadsheet where you could easily see exactly who and how many players in each round that teams were picking. After a few years I realized I was making very few 2nd round picks, realized that my "trading up" approach was terrible, seeing that people were landing great players in the 2nd round especially, but also the 3rd at times. As much as we can dig into players, at the end of the day it's a lot of randomness involved that we can't account for. Their work ethic, injuries, etc. It's probably different in 14-16 team leagues, I have a 16-team contender that I'm constantly selling my entire draft picks for proven players.

[halfbaked88]

I always enjoy watching the landing spot overreactions this soon after a draft. Somebody said it earlier that this will be a rookie draft that rewards talent evaluators that don’t rely as heavily on landing spot. Should be a fun fantasy rookie draft to look back on.

Don't disagree but it sure is nice when talent goes to an ideal landing spot without equal or better players already there.

Draft capital ideally should be what confirms your prior analysis and evaluations on players. Landing spot is just a bonus. Rarely should it elevate lower ranked players into higher tiers. I tend to lower the players that need to be lowered down my rankings based on the draft capital and eventually the board shakes it how I think it should look.

It's not getting the draft capital expected that should expose certain players (especially RB) and cause re-evaluation. Without that DC - if landing spot is the only thing holding them up that's when I get myself into trouble.

If anything using landing spots as tiebreakers between very similar prospects is a perfectly fine way of utilizing that data point. It should not weigh that heavily nearly as much as draft capital, college production, athletics, etc (depending on position)

[Patsfan86]

I just traded 1.03 and 1.05 for 1.02 and 2 23 3rds. That locks up Bijan and Gibbs for me. I felt it was a must do. Locking up the two highest drafted RBs in years in a 1 QB feels pretty big. I don’t like spending huge draft cap on RBs but this felt like I’d be getting a huge advantage having both Gibbs and Bijan on my team. Def an overpay on paper no matter how down someone is on this class but again I felt like this was a must do

[Pullo Vision]

Why did GB use two day 2 picks on TE? Are they just putting Musgrave and Kraft in a pit and saying best man wins the majority of the snaps?

I think there are two seemingly contradictory answers, both of which can still be true at the same time:

1) The GB offense (clearly) needs a productive TE. So they drafted two, more likely insuring they'd get one (the Packers, by the way, have doubled and tripled down on a position of need in a draft a LOT over the years); and
2) LaFleur's vision for his offense includes a lot of 2TE sets, including one being used at times in the FB role.

That second point is my concern. With the murkiness at WR in GB, I was hoping a single TE would get a shot at dominating the position's snaps. Instead, we get two TEs with good receiving skills tripping into each other. The only saving grace is their receiving skills don't directly overlap, though I wouldn't exactly call them complementary.

I was watching both for their landing spots and this was disheartening.

[FantasyFreak]

Jags first round pick was needed. Hope he can play well right away. Worried about Lawrence losing both his starting tackles. Going to be a tough go, early on.

[Cameron Giles]

That second point is my concern. With the murkiness at WR in GB, I was hoping a single TE would get a shot at dominating the position's snaps. Instead, we get two TEs with good receiving skills tripping into each other. The only saving grace is their receiving skills don't directly overlap, though I wouldn't exactly call them complementary.

I was watching both for their landing spots and this was disheartening.

From a real football standpoint, I don't love it, but I don't hate it. But, I think it's clear based on draft capital that Musgrave is the guy to target there. Kraft went a round later and is coming from a smaller school. So, he's tougher to project.

[FantasyFreak]

Deuce Vaughn to Dallas? Welp, RIP Tony Pollard. Your time as the man was fun while it lasted

Love takes like this, personally when I watch the kid play I see talent and based on what I've watched he has football speed. Depending on how our draft ends up I could see myself taking in the late 2nd-mid 3rd

Dont be a fool. Hes 5'5" 179 lbs and ran a 4.56 at his pro day. You are lighting your pick on fire the same way those idiots in Dallas just did with most of this class this year. Luke freaking Schoonmaker, a nearly 25 year old project TE in rnd 2? I am so angry that I dont even know how to process my anger into something productive right now.

Are you saying the Cowboys dropped a "Deuce" with that pick? To stick with the Cowboys/Deuce theme....is this what you're saying

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG_dGG_wAYM

[Pullo Vision]

That second point is my concern. With the murkiness at WR in GB, I was hoping a single TE would get a shot at dominating the position's snaps. Instead, we get two TEs with good receiving skills tripping into each other. The only saving grace is their receiving skills don't directly overlap, though I wouldn't exactly call them complementary.

I was watching both for their landing spots and this was disheartening.

From a real football standpoint, I don't love it, but I don't hate it. But, I think it's clear based on draft capital that Musgrave is the guy to target there. Kraft went a round later and is coming from a smaller school. So, he's tougher to project.

I totally get the moves from a real football perspective but not feeling it for fantasy.

I'll have to watch some film to confirm, but based on scouts' takes, I'd prefer Kraft between the two, and that's before accounting for dynasty ADP cost. If they can manufacture touches for Watson, they can do the same for him. Just like with running QBs that need to work on passing, it's a short term solution contingent on developing route running skills.

[Bot101]

Love takes like this, personally when I watch the kid play I see talent and based on what I've watched he has football speed. Depending on how our draft ends up I could see myself taking in the late 2nd-mid 3rd

Dont be a fool. Hes 5'5" 179 lbs and ran a 4.56 at his pro day. You are lighting your pick on fire the same way those idiots in Dallas just did with most of this class this year. Luke freaking Schoonmaker, a nearly 25 year old project TE in rnd 2? I am so angry that I dont even know how to process my anger into something productive right now.

Are you saying the Cowboys dropped a "Deuce" with that pick? To stick with the Cowboys/Deuce theme....is this what you're saying

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG_dGG_wAYM

[Pullo Vision]

Jags first round pick was needed. Hope he can play well right away. Worried about Lawrence losing both his starting tackles. Going to be a tough go, early on.

Completely agree, I was worried when they lost Taylor in FA, then the ped suspension made OT a huge draft need for them. Great get for them.

[moishetreats]

I totally get the moves from a real football perspective but not feeling it for fantasy.

I'll have to watch some film to confirm, but based on scouts' takes, I'd prefer Kraft between the two, and that's before accounting for dynasty ADP cost.

I'm with you on all this.

[FantasyFreak]

This draft sucks.

7 RB's drafted in the first 3 rounds.

14 in total. The lowest amount since the year 2000.

I've been saying it for months, that this class was not living up to the hype, and was a lot weaker than first anticipated. The RB class is where it kind of fell apart quite a bit, in terms of the missed analysis. TE's look good, WR's not so strong, QB's it's OK. The RB class became a disaster. Was supposed to be it's strength, a year ago.

[Cameron Giles]

This draft sucks.

7 RB's drafted in the first 3 rounds.

14 in total. The lowest amount since the year 2000.

I've been saying it for months, that this class was not living up to the hype, and was a lot weaker than first anticipated. The RB class is where it kind of fell apart quite a bit, in terms of the missed analysis. TE's look good, WR's not so strong, QB's it's OK. The RB class became a disaster. Was supposed to be it's strength, a year ago.

I'll eat crow on this one. I'm still very surprised that this draft actually had less RBs drafted than last years. And, it's not like last year's RB group even projects better long-term.

It remains a deep class though, with a lot of value picks to be made in the 2nd and beyond, but the appeal was to expect many RBs going Day 2 or early Day 3 at the worst, and that did not happen.

[KittleGoat]

I haven't seen this mentioned, but in a draft where RB values were getting killed all over the place, it was awesome for Rhamondre. Considering what the Pats usually do it was extra surprising.