Almost Post Draft Top 10 PPR

[cazzie33]

Was going to say the 2017 TE was even higher rated . That class was the BEAST @ RB & TE (sucked @ WR/QB) although Kupp & Mahomes massively exceeded expectations

Could be a cpl of those exceptions for sure in this draft too but without benefit of hindsight it'd be hard to predict who those are today.

[lic217]

Bijan
Gibbs
Miller
JSN
Spears
Mingo
Addison
Tillman
Flowers
Charb
Roshon
QJ
Kinklaid

[KingsKing]

I mean we got people ranking 3 TEs in the 1st of a 1 QB PPR lol. This class is gawd awful compared to last years class.

Last years top 10 was something like

1. Breece hall, Bijans better

2. Drake London, gibbs is better

3. Kenneth Walker, JSN is better and now Charbonet is in that mix

4. Garrett Wilson, QJ or Addison aren’t as good obviously

5. Treylon Burks, Addison and QJ are better imo

6. Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, not much to go on here, I’ll give to jame o because he has at least stepped on an NFL field.

7. Chris Olave, he’s better than any equivalent here

8. George Pickens or achane, both seem to be highlight machines with a specific skill set, this one is closer than people may want to admit

9. Jahan Dotson or Charbonet, Definitely Dotson here Charbonet to Seattle is what killed the class but it also killed the 2022 class

10. Skyy moore or anyone from 2023. I’m taking my chances on some of these 2023 guys, even TEs in a 1 QB who would be here over Moore

There is some serious overvaluing of the 2022 class going on right now. 2023 did not live up the the crazy hype and this has been disappointing but 2022 has not been this special class it’s being made out to

Whatever you just typed out there makes little sense to me. If I'm ranking the raw prospects from each class, it's something like:

Bijan *23
Hall
Walker
Gibson *23
Wilson
London
Olave
JSN *23
Jamo
Dotson
Burks

And then the 23 guys start to fill in along with Pickens and CWatson.

I don't see how this is anything other than a major indictment of the 23 class. It's got nothing to do with perception. 22 just had better guys (1QB) other than Bijan.

It's really bad from these rankings. Superflex it's a very good class. 1QB is horrible.

The 2nds/3rds, on the other hand, will be awesome in 2023.

He had to type it in a way so it fit his narrative. If we combine the 2 classes this is my top 10 .

Bijan 23
Breece
Wilson
Walker
Olave
London
JSN 23
Gibbs 23
Burks
Jamo

[Patsfan86]

Last years top 10 was something like

1. Breece hall, Bijans better

2. Drake London, gibbs is better

3. Kenneth Walker, JSN is better and now Charbonet is in that mix

4. Garrett Wilson, QJ or Addison aren’t as good obviously

5. Treylon Burks, Addison and QJ are better imo

6. Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, not much to go on here, I’ll give to jame o because he has at least stepped on an NFL field.

7. Chris Olave, he’s better than any equivalent here

8. George Pickens or achane, both seem to be highlight machines with a specific skill set, this one is closer than people may want to admit

9. Jahan Dotson or Charbonet, Definitely Dotson here Charbonet to Seattle is what killed the class but it also killed the 2022 class

10. Skyy moore or anyone from 2023. I’m taking my chances on some of these 2023 guys, even TEs in a 1 QB who would be here over Moore

There is some serious overvaluing of the 2022 class going on right now. 2023 did not live up the the crazy hype and this has been disappointing but 2022 has not been this special class it’s being made out to

Whatever you just typed out there makes little sense to me. If I'm ranking the raw prospects from each class, it's something like:

Bijan *23
Hall
Walker
Gibson *23
Wilson
London
Olave
JSN *23
Jamo
Dotson
Burks

And then the 23 guys start to fill in along with Pickens and CWatson.

I don't see how this is anything other than a major indictment of the 23 class. It's got nothing to do with perception. 22 just had better guys (1QB) other than Bijan.

It's really bad from these rankings. Superflex it's a very good class. 1QB is horrible.

The 2nds/3rds, on the other hand, will be awesome in 2023.

He had to type it in a way so it fit his narrative. If we combine the 2 classes this is my top 10 .

Bijan 23
Breece
Wilson
Walker
Olave
London
JSN 23
Gibbs 23
Burks
Jamo

Ya that’s exactly how I had to type it I roster London and Dotson, spent very high draft cap on London, so ranking Gibbs above London does absolutely nothing to fit any supposed narrative of mine. It’s literally ranking last years top 10 adp players from what I remember next to this year’s potential top 10 adp players. That’s what this post is. It asks for top 10
list, does it not? So I’m ranking last years #1 vs this years #1, then last years #2 vs this years #2 and on and on.

[alewilliam789]

To the point above, TEs were fine as dynasty first round picks until the touted OJ Howard TE class (2017?) busted so badly. Now we have Kyle Pitts not putting up 3 million yards and 280 TDs a season like some people want. So people are scared of the position, I get it. But it’s totally ok to take them in the bottom half of the first of one QB Leagues. Are people really going to pass up on Kincaid just to take a 3rd round RB? Embrace the TE. They offer you an advantage that WR does not so take a shot, you can find a million Chris Olaves, you can only find 1 Travis Kelce.

Yes it’s bad drafting because even Pitts had 1000 yds in his rookie year and still has underperformed other WRs like Waddle and even Chase in some drafts who were drafted after them. If you are drafting the next coming of Kelce (which we are horrific at projecting anyways) then you aren’t getting the positional advantage and it’s just horrific drafting rather than taking RBs/WRs. That is unless you are in TE Premium leagues.

Hence why I said you know it’s bad when we are literally putting 2-3 TEs in the 1st round of 1QB 1st rounds because after around 8 picks it turns into what would normally be end of the second players.

In today’s age 3rd round draft capital is good lol, so yes take a a 3rd round rookie RB with opportunity over a TE like Dalton Kincaid who literally may not be the starter because they have Dawson Knox on a multi-year contract. You are giving people horrific advice lol

[Patsfan86]

To the point above, TEs were fine as dynasty first round picks until the touted OJ Howard TE class (2017?) busted so badly. Now we have Kyle Pitts not putting up 3 million yards and 280 TDs a season like some people want. So people are scared of the position, I get it. But it’s totally ok to take them in the bottom half of the first of one QB Leagues. Are people really going to pass up on Kincaid just to take a 3rd round RB? Embrace the TE. They offer you an advantage that WR does not so take a shot, you can find a million Chris Olaves, you can only find 1 Travis Kelce.

Yes it’s bad drafting because even Pitts had 1000 yds in his rookie year and still has underperformed other WRs like Waddle and even Chase in some drafts who were drafted after them. If you are drafting the next coming of Kelce (which we are horrific at projecting anyways) then you aren’t getting the positional advantage and it’s just horrific drafting rather than taking RBs/WRs. That is unless you are in TE Premium leagues.

Hence why I said you know it’s bad when we are literally putting 2-3 TEs in the 1st round of 1QB 1st rounds because after around 8 picks it turns into what would normally be end of the second players.

In today’s age 3rd round draft capital is good lol, so yes take a a 3rd round rookie RB with opportunity over a TE like Dalton Kincaid who literally may not be the starter because they have Dawson Knox on a multi-year contract. You are giving people horrific advice lol

I mean we can agree to disagree without the shots being thrown. You do things your way. That’s fine. A 3rd round RB is more risky than a first round TE. It’s more risky for multiple reasons. It’s ok to take TEs at pick 1.11 and 1.12. It’s not a team killer and it’s not horrible advice. I’m also not here to give advice. I bolded that so you and everyone else sees it. I’m just here to chat about fantasy.

I’d personally much rather take a shot on Kincaid at 1.12 than Kendre Miller for example

[alewilliam789]

To the point above, TEs were fine as dynasty first round picks until the touted OJ Howard TE class (2017?) busted so badly. Now we have Kyle Pitts not putting up 3 million yards and 280 TDs a season like some people want. So people are scared of the position, I get it. But it’s totally ok to take them in the bottom half of the first of one QB Leagues. Are people really going to pass up on Kincaid just to take a 3rd round RB? Embrace the TE. They offer you an advantage that WR does not so take a shot, you can find a million Chris Olaves, you can only find 1 Travis Kelce.

Yes it’s bad drafting because even Pitts had 1000 yds in his rookie year and still has underperformed other WRs like Waddle and even Chase in some drafts who were drafted after them. If you are drafting the next coming of Kelce (which we are horrific at projecting anyways) then you aren’t getting the positional advantage and it’s just horrific drafting rather than taking RBs/WRs. That is unless you are in TE Premium leagues.

Hence why I said you know it’s bad when we are literally putting 2-3 TEs in the 1st round of 1QB 1st rounds because after around 8 picks it turns into what would normally be end of the second players.

In today’s age 3rd round draft capital is good lol, so yes take a a 3rd round rookie RB with opportunity over a TE like Dalton Kincaid who literally may not be the starter because they have Dawson Knox on a multi-year contract. You are giving people horrific advice lol

I mean we can agree to disagree without the shots being thrown. You do things your way. That’s fine. A 3rd round RB is more risky than a first round TE. It’s more risky for multiple reasons. It’s ok to take TEs at pick 1.11 and 1.12. It’s not a team killer and it’s not horrible advice. I’m also not here to give advice. I bolded that so you and everyone else sees it. I’m just here to chat about fantasy.

I’d personally much rather take a shot on Kincaid at 1.12 than Kendre Miller for example

1. If you are going to tell me their riskier please have something to back that up. In what way? To hit in general? What’s considered a hit with such low bars for TEs?
If 1st round rookie TEs were such safe picks, name me 1 that has actually produced on that value for more than 1 season. I’m not sure most owners would even consider Pitts a hit with how highly he was drafted. Not sure if you’ve noticed, but multiple of the best TEs in fantasy were not NFL 1st round picks, let alone 1st round fantasy picks.

2. I did misread your post at the end of page 3 or 4, but you did say something like “people embrace the te”. I will just continue to elaborate why drafting TEs (even as great and talented as Pitts) is a horrific endeavor for 1QB non-TE premium leagues. There are so few hits and usually in every draft, even in “weak” drafts, into the mid 2nd there are players (WRs/RBs) that end up hitting/gaining value better than rookie TEs.

But if you want to pass up on a rookie RB with what I would say is a riskier asset in a rookie TE (from the standpoint of asset depreciation) than go right ahead. The reality is that unless Kincaid goes bananas in his rookie year, all that is needed is that 3rd round RB to get training camp hype and break off a couple of impressive games and they’ll likely have more value than Kincaid.

[Patsfan86]

Yes it’s bad drafting because even Pitts had 1000 yds in his rookie year and still has underperformed other WRs like Waddle and even Chase in some drafts who were drafted after them. If you are drafting the next coming of Kelce (which we are horrific at projecting anyways) then you aren’t getting the positional advantage and it’s just horrific drafting rather than taking RBs/WRs. That is unless you are in TE Premium leagues.

Hence why I said you know it’s bad when we are literally putting 2-3 TEs in the 1st round of 1QB 1st rounds because after around 8 picks it turns into what would normally be end of the second players.

In today’s age 3rd round draft capital is good lol, so yes take a a 3rd round rookie RB with opportunity over a TE like Dalton Kincaid who literally may not be the starter because they have Dawson Knox on a multi-year contract. You are giving people horrific advice lol

I mean we can agree to disagree without the shots being thrown. You do things your way. That’s fine. A 3rd round RB is more risky than a first round TE. It’s more risky for multiple reasons. It’s ok to take TEs at pick 1.11 and 1.12. It’s not a team killer and it’s not horrible advice. I’m also not here to give advice. I bolded that so you and everyone else sees it. I’m just here to chat about fantasy.

I’d personally much rather take a shot on Kincaid at 1.12 than Kendre Miller for example

1. If you are going to tell me their riskier please have something to back that up. In what way? To hit in general? What’s considered a hit with such low bars for TEs?
If 1st round rookie TEs were such safe picks, name me 1 that has actually produced on that value for more than 1 season. I’m not sure most owners would even consider Pitts a hit with how highly he was drafted. Not sure if you’ve noticed, but multiple of the best TEs in fantasy were not NFL 1st round picks, let alone 1st round fantasy picks.

2. I did misread your post at the end of page 3 or 4, but you did say something like “people embrace the te”. I will just continue to elaborate why drafting TEs (even as great and talented as Pitts) is a horrific endeavor for 1QB non-TE premium leagues. There are so few hits and usually in every draft, even in “weak” drafts, into the mid 2nd there are players (WRs/RBs) that end up hitting/gaining value better than rookie TEs.

But if you want to pass up on a rookie RB with what I would say is a riskier asset in a rookie TE (from the standpoint of asset depreciation) than go right ahead. The reality is that unless Kincaid goes bananas in his rookie year, all that is needed is that 3rd round RB to get training camp hype and break off a couple of impressive games and they’ll likely have more value than Kincaid.

I’m gonna stop here because I actually think this is quite a silly debate we are involved in and no one is right or wrong. 3rd round RBs and 1st round TEs are both risky investments for multiple reasons. I think we can agree there.

I guess it just depends on how you play the game. If you can afford to wait and play the long game you may take The TE, if you are are more win now you are probably gonna take the 3rd round RB.

[FiremanEd]

I don’t do 1QB, but from a SF perspective, the 3 QBs this year are a big jump from Kenny Pickett or bust.

As prospects, I don’t have a tangible delta for Olave vs Addison, for example. I prefer Bijan/Gibbs to Breece/Kenneth Walker. Wilson Vs JSN is close enough. Jameson Williams was sitting out a year. Cook/White/Pierce weren’t anything special to me, and I’d be just as okay with Achane, Miller, or Charbonnet. Kincaid and TE’s are way better, as is Levis who is probably at Pickett level. Toss up Flowers Vs Dotson. Skyy Moore is Downs’esque.

London, Watson, Burks, Pickens make up the rest and admittedly beat out QJ, Mingo, etc. but the TE and QB boost are equally as significant in SF, and TEP.

This is just a ballpark prospect level comparison. We can undoubtedly nitpick those head to heads, but I just don’t think they are as big as some may say. Knowing what they did, sure, but not at the time of post draft.

1QB I agree this is thin, especially in non-TEP.

[mild]

As prospects, I don’t have a tangible delta for Olave vs Addison, for example.

Olave in a landslide, and that's before we even take into account his performance last year.

https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1506639403866722306
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1645623006616600580

It ain't close.

[cazzie33]

Slight lean to Addison here as an actual NFL player but may not be the better fantasy player due to JJ dominating targets & after Cousins is gone ( likely next year or so) have no idea who will be QB

(Sure won't be Kellen Mond ... We've seen him in practice )

[seahawks506]

As prospects, I don’t have a tangible delta for Olave vs Addison, for example.

Olave in a landslide, and that's before we even take into account his performance last year.

https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1506639403866722306
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1645623006616600580

It ain't close.

I think if you take out the hindsight benefit of seeing Olave put up nice numbers in NO they are actually a lot closer as prospects. Yes Olave tested very well, but consensus had question marks on his late declare, poor YAC, being overshadowed by Wilson/JSN at OSU, and perceived him as a lower upside prospect.
I liked Olave coming into last year's draft personally, but we should keep in mind the narrative on him was very different this time last year vs today. I view Olave slightly above Addison as a prospect but don't think the gap is huge.

[dynastyninja]

As prospects, I don’t have a tangible delta for Olave vs Addison, for example.

Olave in a landslide, and that's before we even take into account his performance last year.

https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1506639403866722306
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1645623006616600580

It ain't close.

I think if you take out the hindsight benefit of seeing Olave put up nice numbers in NO they are actually a lot closer as prospects. Yes Olave tested very well, but consensus had question marks on his late declare, poor YAC, being overshadowed by Wilson/JSN at OSU, and perceived him as a lower upside prospect.
I liked Olave coming into last year's draft personally, but we should keep in mind the narrative on him was very different this time last year vs today. I view Olave slightly above Addison as a prospect but don't think the gap is huge.

I disagree pretty strongly, but I've always been high on Olave. I think he's clearly better.

Addison is my 2nd or 3rd favorite receiver in this class, so I like him, but I don't think they're particularly close as prospects.

[Jigga94]

As prospects, I don’t have a tangible delta for Olave vs Addison, for example.

Olave in a landslide, and that's before we even take into account his performance last year.

https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1506639403866722306
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1645623006616600580

It ain't close.

I think if you take out the hindsight benefit of seeing Olave put up nice numbers in NO they are actually a lot closer as prospects. Yes Olave tested very well, but consensus had question marks on his late declare, poor YAC, being overshadowed by Wilson/JSN at OSU, and perceived him as a lower upside prospect.
I liked Olave coming into last year's draft personally, but we should keep in mind the narrative on him was very different this time last year vs today. I view Olave slightly above Addison as a prospect but don't think the gap is huge.

I also disagree that they are very close as prospects, but not miles off.

The late declare on Olave should never have been a ding. Same thing with Flowers this year imo. Now a guy like Mingo needed his senior year to improve his production

[murphysxm]

3. Flowers (only placed above JSN b/c he has a more likely path to being WR1 in Bal)

Not to poke at the OP, but I love seeing this thought process. JSN is still the best WR in this class and should still be the first WR taken in this draft. I actually like his landing spot over landing on Baltimore on top of it.