D'Andre Swift: Skilled but "soft"

[ericanadian]

Well, if someone thinks Swift is actually soft and he was the problem. A contract year might fix that.

If the issue is the coaching staff, he was averaging around 12 touches a game (with 11 missed targets) over the last six games and was functional as a flex guy. You probably don’t want him starting in 2023, but he’ll be fine as a depth guy and clearly still has some big upside.

There is certainly some risk of Monty eating into his passing work, but I’ll wait to see how it shakes out. Not much else you can do at this point. Even if Monty completely takes over the role, the main goal is to just make it through this year and hope he can find his way somewhere else.

[nathanq42]

Big difference in the comps between Swift & Penny.

When healthy Coach Pete fed Penny the ball ... We will never know what Swift would do in a lead role of 15 touches per gm. We've seen what Penny can do (especially against the Lions) and if not for the knee injury Penny stocks would be way up. Unfortunately previous posts are right. There's no reason for the Lions to trade probably the most talented backup RB in the lg who they have on a cheap contract.Being basically on a one year prove it deal there's no reason for a team to overpay either.

That's why I keep saying Swift or his agent need to be a**holes and demand a trade or force a way out of Detroit. Quite sure a Buff or Cincy team would take a flier. Maybe even KC as a contender wanting to get a more explosive option added to backfield.

Now I don't think it will happen. Also agree with earlier post & have said so myself many times even if Monty(Jamaal before) were to get injured they wouldn't turn the full time job over to Swift. C. Reynolds or whomever they bring back would get a serious chunk of run.

Prepare yourself for a repeat of last year where coaching staff say they have a plan to limit/monitor his touches to keep him healthy. UNLESS their hand is forced by injuries and then if Swift tears it up they will tell you this is what they always expected from #32 & knew he was capable of.

He hasn't done it consistently but when he has gotten the touches he feasts, just scroll through his game logs sort by attempts or targets, when he gets the opportunity to make plays he does.

[cazzie33]

Big difference in the comps between Swift & Penny.

When healthy Coach Pete fed Penny the ball ... We will never know what Swift would do in a lead role of 15 touches per gm. We've seen what Penny can do (especially against the Lions) and if not for the knee injury Penny stocks would be way up. Unfortunately previous posts are right. There's no reason for the Lions to trade probably the most talented backup RB in the lg who they have on a cheap contract.Being basically on a one year prove it deal there's no reason for a team to overpay either.

That's why I keep saying Swift or his agent need to be a**holes and demand a trade or force a way out of Detroit. Quite sure a Buff or Cincy team would take a flier. Maybe even KC as a contender wanting to get a more explosive option added to backfield.

Now I don't think it will happen. Also agree with earlier post & have said so myself many times even if Monty(Jamaal before) were to get injured they wouldn't turn the full time job over to Swift. C. Reynolds or whomever they bring back would get a serious chunk of run.

Prepare yourself for a repeat of last year where coaching staff say they have a plan to limit/monitor his touches to keep him healthy. UNLESS their hand is forced by injuries and then if Swift tears it up they will tell you this is what they always expected from #32 & knew he was capable of.

He hasn't done it consistently but when he has gotten the touches he feasts, just scroll through his game logs sort by attempts or targets, when he gets the opportunity to make plays he does.

Preachin' to the choir brother

[stoneghost28]

Big difference in the comps between Swift & Penny.

When healthy Coach Pete fed Penny the ball ... We will never know what Swift would do in a lead role of 15 touches per gm. We've seen what Penny can do (especially against the Lions) and if not for the knee injury Penny stocks would be way up. Unfortunately previous posts are right. There's no reason for the Lions to trade probably the most talented backup RB in the lg who they have on a cheap contract.Being basically on a one year prove it deal there's no reason for a team to overpay either.

That's why I keep saying Swift or his agent need to be a**holes and demand a trade or force a way out of Detroit. Quite sure a Buff or Cincy team would take a flier. Maybe even KC as a contender wanting to get a more explosive option added to backfield.

Now I don't think it will happen. Also agree with earlier post & have said so myself many times even if Monty(Jamaal before) were to get injured they wouldn't turn the full time job over to Swift. C. Reynolds or whomever they bring back would get a serious chunk of run.

Prepare yourself for a repeat of last year where coaching staff say they have a plan to limit/monitor his touches to keep him healthy. UNLESS their hand is forced by injuries and then if Swift tears it up they will tell you this is what they always expected from #32 & knew he was capable of.

Penny had five seasons in Seattle, he wasn't injured that whole time, Penny ran into the problem that was bothersome ticky tacky injuries matched with a cheap strong option in Chris Carson.

There's no "If this...." with Penny., There's a reason his dynasty start up value dropped from a high in the 40's in 2018 to the freaking 220's by the fall of '21. He did nothing for 3 years hurt and not hurt, by '21, his fourth year, he was an absolute nothing (less than 65 touches a year on average) and Seattle chose to move on from him until Carson's career got derailed, and they looked under the couch cushions, remembered they wasted a very high pick on Penny and rolled him out there too and boom, Penny showed what he could be with some bell cow looks.

Swift's been enormously productive when healthy and getting touches since day 1. The problem is, like with Penny, he hasn't been consistently healthy either, so he's always been in a committee. I dont think Penny and he are like for like in any way, Penny was a lost cause, until Seattle turned to the only option left, and he suddenly was randomly healthy enough in that moment to produce.

I do agree w/your assessment of Swift's situation, though truth be told, Detroit aint trading him, he's cost controlled, cheap and they can run out most of his prime, and let him go so someone else can buy his decline (lol I know). It is what it is. He's stuck.

If I'm him, I put enough pressure inside the offices for a trade that I can, but not so much that my name gets poisoned before my walk year. If I can't get traded out, the season is about being healthy in Feb/March '24, and that's it. That's the only piece that matters.

[natjjohn]

Is there anybody more hyped without the production to back it up as Swift? I say this as someone who mostly likes him but he’s nowhere near sniffed the hype. Can already see how the hype continues no matter how he performs. He performs poorly, it’s going to be all about him on a different team that knows how to use him, conveniently ignoring that the Lions were an offensive powerhouse last year. That wherever he goes will revive him and use him right.

Will see. Imagine his ADP drops in redraft and dynasty and there could be a but opportunity. The reality is Swift owners should’ve sold him before every season after his rookie year. His value has just consistently dropped every year. Will the trend continue?

[Needalife]

Swift is still quite young. Just turned 24 and is only 14 days older than Etienne for perspective. He'll be a UFA next season. He's going to dominate when he lands in MIA

[stoneghost28]

I don't get that take. Swift backs it up in terms of production when he gets the ball, he doesn't get the production when he's hurt, or because of his injury issues or whatever, isn't getting touches. By any metric the guy is ridiculously productive per touch, period. His rushing metrics are absurd, his pass catching metrics are absurd.

He's just always hurt and his team doesn't trust him anymore as a bell cow back.

So honestly, I don't know what to say to that.

You have to have the nuance to tell the difference between a guy that just can't cut it as a player in this league, period, guys like Paul Perkins from the '16 class, Samaje Perine from '17, Royce Freeman from '18, Zach Moss and Key Vaughn from '20 etc. Those guys flat out couldn't cut it which is why their careers petered out beyond Perine who found a second life in Cincy as Mixon's backup. Swift aint that, he's not overhyped, he's injury prone, and has a team quitting on him because of that. First detroit had Billy Sims, then the knee did him in, decades later they had another great one in Jahvid Best, and that guy was also derailed by injuries, now its Swift. Hopefully it doesn't go as awful as it went for Sims and Best, but for now, that's more analogous to me.

To my mind anyway, this is why you have to tell the difference between say, the Sony Michel's of the '18 class, and the Penny's. As a poster above me mentioned, Penny never sucked, his team just quit on him because he could never sustain health and they had healthy tough options. It was only random chance that allowed Penny to have an opportunity but he took it when he had it. Penny was never Royce Freeman, or Zach Moss or Perkins, a flat out scrub, he was a guy so injury prone, the team completely ignored him as an asset until there was nothing else available.

We've got to be able to tell the difference between these guys, and the Mosses and Perkins and Perine's of the world. If Swift is healthy and a team gives him the ball, great things will happen, no matter the team. He aint overhyped, he's injury prone. There's a fundamental difference between that, and a never had it scrub.

[stoneghost28]

Will see. Imagine his ADP drops in redraft and dynasty and there could be a but opportunity. The reality is Swift owners should’ve sold him before every season after his rookie year. His value has just consistently dropped every year. Will the trend continue?

Forgot to respond to this. You're right, for the first time, now. About his historical value.

His trend line is pretty straight forward:

2020: Went down during summer than up at end of season and into offseason.

2021: Went up and down up and down numerous times in the offseason before peaking October-December of '21 (October '21 was the high watermark of his value as well).

2022: His value dipped again in the offseason before rising slightly and peaking in September again, the value collapse began in November '22 and accelerated during the winter.

It's basically been going up, down, up, down, up down, non stop w/the peak value for trading him October '21-October '22 when he was essentially carry a startup ADP inside the top 3-10 for a full year straight.

If you sold before, during or after his rookie year you would have taken it in the shorts, the time to make your bones was basically the window I reference above.

Since I believe in the talent, and was never getting offers anyway, I saw no need. His value is now less than 1/4 to 1/5 what it once was, and that window is long gone.

Only time he may approach it again is if there is an injury with Monty, or if he's pursued and signed to be a full time starter in '24. We'll see.

But yeah, for my pile of shares? I'm just gonna hold. If I didn't believe in his talent, like say Royce Freeman a few years after he was drafted, I'd move on, but I do believe in him, and so I'll keep him around and just weep bitter tears periodically lol.

[Cameron Giles]

Is there anybody more hyped without the production to back it up as Swift? I say this as someone who mostly likes him but he’s nowhere near sniffed the hype. Can already see how the hype continues no matter how he performs. He performs poorly, it’s going to be all about him on a different team that knows how to use him, conveniently ignoring that the Lions were an offensive powerhouse last year. That wherever he goes will revive him and use him right.

Will see. Imagine his ADP drops in redraft and dynasty and there could be a but opportunity. The reality is Swift owners should’ve sold him before every season after his rookie year. His value has just consistently dropped every year. Will the trend continue?

He was RB10 overall in PPG in 2021. So, it's not like he hasn't produced at an RB1 level before. He's a very good player, but injuries have really been the culprit of seeing his real potential.

[Jigga94]

Good when healthy... thought I was in the Penny thread

[mild]

Good when healthy... thought I was in the Penny thread

The resemblance is getting uncanny...

KTC has Swift at equal value to the 2023 1.12 right now.
Penny at 2.11-2.12, a whole round later.

Am I crazy for thinking I'd probably prefer Penny at cost, as a contender?

(Obviously no rebuilders are seriously thinking Swift given that he's set to lose another season of his Prime, and will be 25 before he even gets a shot at a bellcow role in FA)

[Cameron Giles]

Good when healthy... thought I was in the Penny thread

The resemblance is getting uncanny...

KTC has Swift at equal value to the 2023 1.12 right now.
Penny at 2.11-2.12, a whole round later.

Am I crazy for thinking I'd probably prefer Penny at cost, as a contender?

(Obviously no rebuilders are seriously thinking Swift given that he's set to lose another season of his Prime, and will be 25 before he even gets a shot at a bellcow role in FA)

Penny has worse competition and a clear route to early down work. Montgomery is worse than Williams for Swift's chances, because he has a three-down back skill set and he's got more juice to his game. Silver lining is that Montgomery is very average.

I'd rather have Penny given cost, though it's clear that Swift's price has a "wait and see" mindset baked into it for his free agency a year from now.

[Jigga94]

Good when healthy... thought I was in the Penny thread

The resemblance is getting uncanny...

KTC has Swift at equal value to the 2023 1.12 right now.
Penny at 2.11-2.12, a whole round later.

Am I crazy for thinking I'd probably prefer Penny at cost, as a contender?

(Obviously no rebuilders are seriously thinking Swift given that he's set to lose another season of his Prime, and will be 25 before he even gets a shot at a bellcow role in FA)

https://stathead.com/football/pcm_finde ... d=PennRa00

Yeah give me the cheaper guy when they are this close. Of course in a vacuum, I'd prefer Swift just to turn around and sell him. At least with Penny, you knew he was hurt and out. Could cut him or IR and move on. With Swift, you were likely starting him a lot of dud weeks.

[Anteaters]

Am I crazy for thinking I'd probably prefer Penny at cost, as a contender?

I'd prefer Penny at cost value, and head to head. Swift is done for 2023, and if he doesn't prove himself somehow, he might be done overall as a fantasy asset.

[stoneghost28]

Well "done" is the wrong word. NFL FO's get his talent, but I think it's reasonable to argue that he's never again going to be close to worth what he was from fall '21 to early fall '22.

But if Monty can leave chicago and get a big deal and Miles Sanders can leave Philly and get a big deal, its hard to imagine Swift won't get an interesting deal next offseason but regardless, he's no longer 21, 22, 23, he's gonna be 25 when he gets his next maybe, bell cow opportunity which means the runaway is leading to a cliff.

People who jumped off before the '22 season made the right decision, the rest of us can hold, or sell at a huge loss. Only saving grace for me is that I tried repeatedly to trade for him in 2 of the 6 leagues I don't have him in and could never swing a deal, so at least there's that tiny solace lol.

I will hold. Hoping to get another good season or two out of him. Maybe flip him if good things happen, if not, just ride this ride into the side of the mountain/off the cliff, choose your metaphor.