Sell me on Calvin Ridley

[gpaok]

His letter was pretty s crazy to read, and makes you want to root for him even more, also makes you feel like the parallels with Josh Gordon were exaggerated.

Not sure why but I also felt like the Falcons did not protect their asset!

And just two days ago I was ready to start making offers lol I am keeping now just in case we have one of the biggest come back stories!

Falcons really mishandled him. How do you tell someone a broken foot is just a sprain?!?

What Ridley went through is rough. Painkillers are no joke and highly addictive. Crazy that the NFL will let that stuff slide though and not weed. Pretty backwards imo

Right, player gets 1 year suspension, yet the teams has no issues!!!

[gogobradyarm]

Amari: 4.43, 93rd percentile speed score, 97th percentile agility, 23rd percentile burst
Ridley: 4.43, 66th percentile speed score, 43rd percentile agility, 2nd percentile burst

Neither are tortoises, but Amari has better % scores due to doing it with 20+ extra lbs.

Amari WR finishes PPR: 10, 27, 15, 10, 19, 35, 14, 20. 6 out of 8 1k yard seasons
Ridley WR finishes PPR: 22, 27, 5, 101. 1 out of 4 1k yard season

There's a long track record of Amari performing on multiple teams. Even his terrible year was a WR3. Multiple WR1 and high WR2 finishes

I like Ridley. Love the story. Hope he comes back 100% healthy and lights it up. I just don't see why you would prefer him over Amari. Both are worth more than a 2nd now, but I understand why owners were hesitant to pay more than that for Ridley while he was suspended indefinitely.

And if we are talking about value/cheaper to acquire. KTC has Ridley 1 spot higher than Amari, so they cost the same

For me it's quite simple why someone should much prefer Ridley over Cooper... Ridley has top 5 upside and Cooper simply does not. There are so many WRs that can perform at Cooper's level, and yet there are a small amount of WR's that can perform with Ridley's upside. The numbers don't lie... Cooper is basically stuck at ~14/15 PPG. Ridley is a guy that can clearly hit beyond that mark, and if they're the same price, give me the ceiling player in a fantasy world of middling wide receivers... I mean, Ridley played with a broken foot and still blew away Cooper's best season lol. Not to mention that early in his career, Ridley had to contend with arguably the leagues best WR for targets, while Cooper was the only guy in town in Oakland...

2021
Ridley 14.2 PPG
Cooper 13.5 PPG

2020
Ridley 18.7 PPG
Cooper: 14.8 PPG

2019
Ridley 15.2 PPG
Cooper 15.6 PPG

2018
Ridley 12.9 PPG
Cooper 14.6 PPG

[Pullo Vision]

Amari has been a solid WR his whole career and has been undervalued for much of the last few years. I acquired him as a throw in 2 years ago and have been very happy with the return. I would not sell him to get Ridley, but I do think they could have similar seasons. I trust Amari more to hit his numbers because we've seen him do it multiple times now, even last year on the Browns with Brisett and a rusty Watson

I agree that Cooper has a more certain floor. His career production to date has been impressive, but a significant proportion of his yearly production tends to get concentrated in a game or two. Frustrating from a fantasy start/sit decision. To your later post comparing their career production, I wouldn't ding Ridley too hard for that. He spent several years behind Julio and, to his credit, seized the opportunity when the alpha role opened up one year.

The speed/agility/burst score angles are interesting. I knew there were significant differences between the two but the mockdraftable spider graphs show the differences were more than the 25 pounds between the two. Put simply, some legs of Ridley's spider are shrunk to the center. In their nearly 25 year database, the most productive comparable to Ridley is Laveranues Coles. He may not ring bells for some, but he had several productive years of 1k+ yards. In his pro bowl year, he turned 159 targets into 82/1204/6. Insert note/disclaimer about "it was a different league back then", so those stats may have been different if he got those targets this year.

I'm curious both of your thoughts on Amari Cooper as a comparison. WR18 by average last year and has a sustained history of production, close in age (28.2 vs 28.7) and KTC value (32nd WR vs 33rd WR).

I'm not sure I totally understand the question. Cooper and Ridley are very different NFL players (and the fantasy results show it). Cooper is the tortoise and Ridley is the hare. Cooper has many solid seasons but none that are elite. He's a highly reliable WR2 for fantasy. While he's been fine, I don't think Cooper ever lived up to the initial hopes. Kind of the same vector as Michael Crabtree.

I guess the similarity might be that they are about the same age and, like Ridley, Cooper was an uncertain dynasty commodity during the 2022 preseason. No one knew that the move to CLE would mean. Those who bet on him won - but at least in redraft he came at a fairly steep discount.

My POV on Ridley has mostly been a response to the prevailing opinion that he's worth about a mid-2nd round rookie pick. While I think Ridley is risky (we don't know what the time off has done to his game), I think a mid-2nd round rookie pick is even more risky. The hit rate on a mid-2nd is worse than 50/50 and that's just for the player to be fantasy relevant. I'd rather take the shot on Ridley being even close to what he was for 2-3 years over that. There's a reasonable chance that Ridley is a high end WR2 or slightly better. That's a very valuable fantasy asset and I'll worry about 2026 a little later.

The reason I've been focusing on Cooper (and some others) as a comparable is so many people have been pointing to Diggs (and even AJ Brown) when they talk about how excited they are about Ridley this year. The basis has been the new receiver helps the QB perform better. Cooper is a better comparable from an age and current value perspective. Diggs was 26 when he was shipped to Buffalo, while Ridley is 28 and will turn 29 during the upcoming season. If you round that difference to 2 years, those two lost years are huge in dynasty. He entered the league as an "old" rookie at 23, lost several years as Julio's wingman, then a year and a half to the suspension and an injury.

Even if Ridley plays all the games in 2023 and isn't injured (caveats Ridley himself is concerned about), gets fed volume (despite target competition and scheme) and converts those targets into a massive WR1 type fantasy season, where does that leave us in dynasty next year? With a 29 year old productive WR. Ask owners of Hopkins, Adams, Cooper, Cooks and Kupp what kind of return to expect for older productive WRs. You're looking at back end 1st type, maybe with change thrown in.

I understand your interest in him is based on a price of a mid 2nd. Ignoring the anecdotes of the cost I've been quoted by Ridley owners, keeptradecut puts him around pick 2.1 in a 12 team 1 QB. He's already valued near similarly older WRs who have an edge on him with resumes of sustained performance. I can't see ways Ridley gains value compared to these other WRs, and, within the larger dynasty landscape, his age downslope indicates his overall dynasty value will decrease- and that assumes he hits big this year. If he does, the best case right now is you turn a 2.1 into a late 1st (with potential change). If he doesn't, goodbye value.

Paying the going rate of 2.1 for Ridley ignores his floor this year (it assumes he's healthy, gets volume and seizes the opportunity) and sets up the possibility your team loses significant value heading into next offseason. Other older WRs have the health risk and age-related value degradation but have stronger short term production floors, like Cooper. Hopkins actually is valued below Ridley right now, and I'd prefer him.

[gogobradyarm]

Amari has been a solid WR his whole career and has been undervalued for much of the last few years. I acquired him as a throw in 2 years ago and have been very happy with the return. I would not sell him to get Ridley, but I do think they could have similar seasons. I trust Amari more to hit his numbers because we've seen him do it multiple times now, even last year on the Browns with Brisett and a rusty Watson

I agree that Cooper has a more certain floor. His career production to date has been impressive, but a significant proportion of his yearly production tends to get concentrated in a game or two. Frustrating from a fantasy start/sit decision. To your later post comparing their career production, I wouldn't ding Ridley too hard for that. He spent several years behind Julio and, to his credit, seized the opportunity when the alpha role opened up one year.

The speed/agility/burst score angles are interesting. I knew there were significant differences between the two but the mockdraftable spider graphs show the differences were more than the 25 pounds between the two. Put simply, some legs of Ridley's spider are shrunk to the center. In their nearly 25 year database, the most productive comparable to Ridley is Laveranues Coles. He may not ring bells for some, but he had several productive years of 1k+ yards. In his pro bowl year, he turned 159 targets into 82/1204/6. Insert note/disclaimer about "it was a different league back then", so those stats may have been different if he got those targets this year.

I'm curious both of your thoughts on Amari Cooper as a comparison. WR18 by average last year and has a sustained history of production, close in age (28.2 vs 28.7) and KTC value (32nd WR vs 33rd WR).

I'm not sure I totally understand the question. Cooper and Ridley are very different NFL players (and the fantasy results show it). Cooper is the tortoise and Ridley is the hare. Cooper has many solid seasons but none that are elite. He's a highly reliable WR2 for fantasy. While he's been fine, I don't think Cooper ever lived up to the initial hopes. Kind of the same vector as Michael Crabtree.

I guess the similarity might be that they are about the same age and, like Ridley, Cooper was an uncertain dynasty commodity during the 2022 preseason. No one knew that the move to CLE would mean. Those who bet on him won - but at least in redraft he came at a fairly steep discount.

My POV on Ridley has mostly been a response to the prevailing opinion that he's worth about a mid-2nd round rookie pick. While I think Ridley is risky (we don't know what the time off has done to his game), I think a mid-2nd round rookie pick is even more risky. The hit rate on a mid-2nd is worse than 50/50 and that's just for the player to be fantasy relevant. I'd rather take the shot on Ridley being even close to what he was for 2-3 years over that. There's a reasonable chance that Ridley is a high end WR2 or slightly better. That's a very valuable fantasy asset and I'll worry about 2026 a little later.

The reason I've been focusing on Cooper (and some others) as a comparable is so many people have been pointing to Diggs (and even AJ Brown) when they talk about how excited they are about Ridley this year. The basis has been the new receiver helps the QB perform better. Cooper is a better comparable from an age and current value perspective. Diggs was 26 when he was shipped to Buffalo, while Ridley is 28 and will turn 29 during the upcoming season. If you round that difference to 2 years, those two lost years are huge in dynasty. He entered the league as an "old" rookie at 23, lost several years as Julio's wingman, then a year and a half to the suspension and an injury.

Even if Ridley plays all the games in 2023 and isn't injured (caveats Ridley himself is concerned about), gets fed volume (despite target competition and scheme) and converts those targets into a massive WR1 type fantasy season, where does that leave us in dynasty next year? With a 29 year old productive WR. Ask owners of Hopkins, Adams, Cooper, Cooks and Kupp what kind of return to expect for older productive WRs. You're looking at back end 1st type, maybe with change thrown in.

I understand your interest in him is based on a price of a mid 2nd. Ignoring the anecdotes of the cost I've been quoted by Ridley owners, keeptradecut puts him around pick 2.1 in a 12 team 1 QB. He's already valued near similarly older WRs who have an edge on him with resumes of sustained performance. I can't see ways Ridley gains value compared to these other WRs, and, within the larger dynasty landscape, his age downslope indicates his overall dynasty value will decrease- and that assumes he hits big this year. If he does, the best case right now is you turn a 2.1 into a late 1st (with potential change). If he doesn't, goodbye value.

Paying the going rate of 2.1 for Ridley ignores his floor this year (it assumes he's healthy, gets volume and seizes the opportunity) and sets up the possibility your team loses significant value heading into next offseason. Other older WRs have the health risk and age-related value degradation but have stronger short term production floors, like Cooper. Hopkins actually is valued below Ridley right now, and I'd prefer him.

There are measurable ton of wr's in the ~14/15 PPG range each year. There are a finite amount that have the ceiling Ridley does. I'm not sure where you stand on acquiring players that score more points, but that is typically how you win in this game they call fantasy football

[Pullo Vision]

There are measurable ton of wr's in the ~14/15 PPG range each year. There are a finite amount that have the ceiling Ridley does. I'm not sure where you stand on acquiring players that score more points, but that is typically how you win in this game they call fantasy football

It's about controlling the short term ceilings and floors you invest in, as well as long term value.

You see the crazy moonshot ceiling and ignore the floor.

Put your money where your mouth is- who has higher PPR PPG this year, Hopkins or Ridley?

[gogobradyarm]

There are measurable ton of wr's in the ~14/15 PPG range each year. There are a finite amount that have the ceiling Ridley does. I'm not sure where you stand on acquiring players that score more points, but that is typically how you win in this game they call fantasy football

It's about controlling the short term ceilings and floors you invest in, as well as long term value.

You see the crazy moonshot ceiling and ignore the floor.

Put your money where your mouth is- who has higher PPR PPG this year, Hopkins or Ridley?

Crazy moonshot ceiling? He literally has done it before, why is it crazy? Amari has never hit that ceiling, and Riley's floor is basically Cooper's ceiling...

You cray cray!

Not only do I think Ridley outperforms Hopkins in 2023, I think he does in 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027...

[Jigga94]

Brady what do you think Fields season passing totals will be?

[Pullo Vision]

There are measurable ton of wr's in the ~14/15 PPG range each year. There are a finite amount that have the ceiling Ridley does. I'm not sure where you stand on acquiring players that score more points, but that is typically how you win in this game they call fantasy football

It's about controlling the short term ceilings and floors you invest in, as well as long term value.

You see the crazy moonshot ceiling and ignore the floor.

Put your money where your mouth is- who has higher PPR PPG this year, Hopkins or Ridley?

Crazy moonshot ceiling? He literally has done it before, why is it crazy? Amari has never hit that ceiling, and Riley's floor is basically Cooper's ceiling...

You cray cray!

Not only do I think Ridley outperforms Hopkins in 2023, I think he does in 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027...

You ready to do a sig bet on Hopkins vs Ridley in PPR PPG for 2023? No performance bonuses, just recs, yards and TDs.

[CGW]

Brady what do you think Fields season passing totals will be?

Collecting those receipts too I see!

[wickerkat1212]

3500 / 25 / 12 passing
1000 / 6 rushing

[Jigga94]

Brady what do you think Fields season passing totals will be?

Collecting those receipts too I see!

Lol was actually curious as well. Not sure if he expects 3k yards and DJM to get 50% of them

[wickerkat1212]

Brady what do you think Fields season passing totals will be?

Collecting those receipts too I see!

Lol was actually curious as well. Not sure if he expects 3k yards and DJM to get 50% of them

3500 / 25 / 12 passing
1000 / 6 rushing

1000 DJM
800 Mooney
600 Claypool
600 Kmet
500 the rest

[esloan35]

Collecting those receipts too I see!

Lol was actually curious as well. Not sure if he expects 3k yards and DJM to get 50% of them

3500 / 25 / 12 passing
1000 / 6 rushing

1000 DJM
800 Mooney
600 Claypool
600 Kmet
500 the rest

So what are we paying for this dude, 2.5 and up in 2023. I wont go a 2023 1st for dang sure.

[wickerkat1212]

Lol was actually curious as well. Not sure if he expects 3k yards and DJM to get 50% of them

3500 / 25 / 12 passing
1000 / 6 rushing

1000 DJM
800 Mooney
600 Claypool
600 Kmet
500 the rest

So what are we paying for this dude, 2.5 and up in 2023. I wont go a 2023 1st for dang sure.

Paying for what? I don't get your statement here?

[Shoreline Steamers]

3500 / 25 / 12 passing
1000 / 6 rushing

1000 DJM
800 Mooney
600 Claypool
600 Kmet
500 the rest

So what are we paying for this dude, 2.5 and up in 2023. I wont go a 2023 1st for dang sure.

Paying for what? I don't get your statement here?

Guessing he's stating what he'd give for DJM. If looking to buy. Then again, we've already got a ton of discussion on this in a non-Ridley thread. https://forum.dynastyleaguefootball.co ... 5&t=207828