Keeper League Keeper Dilemma

[Bay City Original]

10 Team, 15 man roster, Non-PPR, 4-6 Player Keeper League

We must keep four players, can keep a 5th and lose 2nd round pick, can keep a 6th and lose 4th round pick. The draft is 11 rounds. After all teams submit their keepers, assume the top 50-55 players are off the board.

Starting requirements are Q/R/R/W/W/T/Flex/Flex/K/DEF and my roster is:
QB: Dak
RB: Hall, Javonte, Dobbins, Akers, Gibson, Hunt
WR: Waddle, Garrett Wilson, DJM, Dionte, Jeudy, Claypool
TE: Knox, Friermuth

I also have the 1st pick of each round, so Bijan is probably my 1.01.

I think Hall, Javonte, Waddle, and Wilson are my "for sure" keepers. If I keep a fifth player, I should also keep a sixth.

Based on my roster, would you keep a fifth and sixth player, if so, who? Or should I gamble and keep only 4, thus, giving letting me keep my 2.01 and 4.01 picks that potentially could get me back some of these players (or better)?

[Gator Sens]

Tough to let Dobbins and Jeudy walk for me but they could go either way. Moore is interesting but needs a QB badly. I would lean holding Dobbins and Jeudy but that's just me.

Who do you think are the best likely available players in the 2nd round? I know that is a tough question.

[Bay City Original]

Below is last year's draft (Vets are bolded). Some interesting things to note (which are common trends in past drafts)...
•Only one team had a 2nd round pick, meaning 9/10 teams kept a 5th player.
•Only two teams had a 4th round pick, meaning 8/10 teams kept a 6th player.
•Rookies and RBs are heavily drafted in the early rounds.

1.1 B HALL
1.2 D LONDON
1.3 D PIERCE
1.4 K WALKER
1.5 J COOK
1.6 D SCHULTZ
1.7 E ELLIOT
1.8 A RODGERS
1.9 R BATEMAN
1.1O T BURKS
2.1 C SUTTON
3.1 G WILSON
3.2 G PICKENS
3.3 JAMESON W
3.4 DIONTAE J
3.5 CEH
3.6 R PENNY
3.7 DAMIEN H
3.8 R STEVENSON
3.9 AJ DILLON
3.1O T ALLGEIER
4.1 SKY M
4.2 Z WHITE
5.1 A GIBSON
5.2 CHASE E
5.3 G DAVIS
5.4 MIKE W
5.5 P FREIERMUTH
5.6 BILLS
5.7 TJ HOCKENSON
5.8 C OLAVE
5.9 D GOEDTERT
5.1O B AIYUK

[BigBawseRoss]

jeudy and dobbins for me as well

[jenkins.math]

When you're only keeping 4 players it's essentially a redraft in terms of player value. Basically does the player you're keeping have top 4 round value?

So with that in mind, why are you keeping Javonte for sure? They are talking about him missing multiple games to start the year and then possibly needing a ramp up process. I'd easily draft Dobbins, Jeudy, or DJM in a redraft over Javonte.

[moishetreats]

Jeudy > 2nd-round pick
Then probably Dobbins for the equivalent of the 4th.

[ProfPoobah]

With a 15-man roster, I think I'd see if Javonte Williams had any trade value. Or a 2-for-1s not really done in this league? With Williams, Jeudy, Dobbins, and even Moore, I think you have a group you could offer to a bad team.