Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

[FantasyFreak]

this collusion idea makes no sense to me, if you don't want to sign him at the alleged cost, you don't need to "collude", and if you think it's the right move for your team, why would you do the ravens a favour instead?

It's collusion to keep other QBs from getting the Watson deal. If every QB starts getting fully guaranteed contracts, owners are going to be livid. The bonus is merely getting him on the non exclusive number, because they factually know that no team is going to do that.

If there was a chance a team would actually sign him, they would have put the exclusive tag on him.

If they actively discuss it, or communicate with each other, yes. That hasn't happened to anyone's knowledge. It's not collusion if teams simply don't want to pay fully guaranteed deals and therefore express their lack of interest. There's no evidence of collusion, but it likely never happened.

[Anteaters]

I guess I could give it at least the smallest bit of credence if the NFL was able to produce any other contract that was an "outlier" and remained an outlier in the sense that the barrier remained unbroken thereafter. As far as I can recall, there has never been a contract barrier that was broken once, then never broken again. Every barrier that was broken, then became the norm.

I think you can have the conversation about the Todd Gurley contract and the barrier it broke and look at the fact that the franchise tag number has dropped every year at the RB position since that contract soured as a time the NFL adjusted to a barrier being broken in a way that didn't make business sense top their pocket books. RB's aren't getting the Zeke and Gurley contracts anymore. Barkley just got tagged for $10MM.

That's close, but not a true example.

For one thing, the league shifted overall, reducing the place of "franchise RBs". Once upon a time, every NFL team was looking for its own Franchise RB. Now, half the teams are content to follow the Patriot's lead and go with RBBC and three-year stints. Gone are the days when 6 RBs are drafted in the first half of the first round of the NFL draft.

Also, some RBs still command huge salaries. CMC received a 4yr/$64M with $39M guaranteed. Zeke received a 6yr/$90M with $50M guaranteed. Even with the de-emphasis on franchise RBs, a few continue to threaten Gurley's deal.

NFL teams continue to emphasize the importance of having a Franchise QB. QBs continue to be drafted early and often. And QBs remain the highest paid players in the league. Under these circumstances, there is no logical explanation for Jackson not to receive at least one offer better than the 2nd best QB contract. I'd say "the highest QB contract" but logic demands it should be at least between Watson and the 2nd best deal.

[FantasyFreak]

Watson's contract was potentially an outlier. If Lamar also got it, it becomes a real precedent and every Quarterback gets it in the future.

The NFL has been pushing that narrative. They've even convinced some media outlets to push that narrative.

I guess I could give it at least the smallest bit of credence if the NFL was able to produce any other contract that was an "outlier" and remained an outlier in the sense that the barrier remained unbroken thereafter. As far as I can recall, there has never been a contract barrier that was broken once, then never broken again. Every barrier that was broken, then became the norm.

There was the Defensive players not getting top dollar barrier. There was the Cornerback $ barrier. There was the Tight End pay barrier. There was the length barrier. There was the signing bonus barrier. The $100M total contract value barrier. The $50M/yr barrier. And on and on.

So, if the NFL thinks the public is going to fall for this "outlier" nonsense, wouldn't it be helpful if the NFL provided examples of previous outliers that remained one-off deals?

There are no outliers. Every barrier-breaking NFL contract, becomes the new normal.

Except that's not the case here because Watson's was fully guaranteed for an amount no other team in their right mind was comfortable with. Kyler, Watson and Wilson all got deals that didn't fall in line with Watson's deal. It's not nonsense, it's reality. It's already been proven to be an outlier simply by other teams signing their QB's, this all happened before Lamar's situation this season.

[FantasyFreak]

All this talk about Watson’s deal, but we seem to neglect the fact that Kirk Cousins got a fully guaranteed deal first in 2018. Now he had to bet on himself a couple times on franchise tags to get it, but he got it. Yet I don’t remember all these accusations of collusion when it came to the QB deals between that one and Watson’s. Included during that window was the Mahomes deal and if anybody deserves a fully guaranteed deal it’s him.

Yeah, Cousins got a full guaranteed deal for 3 years, and people then were saying this might be the new norm, and Cousins had changed the game for everyone, type thing. It turned out to be an outlier, as was Watson's. These contracts aren't the norm, and likely won't be. Lamar thought he'd try, and he's entitled to, but there was certainly no guarantee it was going to happen, just because of Watson's deal. As I stated in a previous post, there have been 3 major QB deals since the Watson deal, and none were to the level of Watson's deal.

[mild]

Or it could be that NFL teams have already performed some due diligence and their investigation has turned up that Jackson’s starting point is the fully guaranteed contract in excess of Watson’s and they simply have no interest in entering into such a stupid business arrangement when they also have to give up 2 1st rounders to do so (which are golden to most teams).

Pushing back here.

QB's traded last year:
Russell Wilson - 2x 1sts, 2x 2nds, multiple players, additional pick swap
Deshaun Watson - 3x 1sts, 1x 3rd, 2x 4ths

2x 1sts alone is actually an incredibly competitive price for Lamar, a 26-yo former MVP, in a trade. (Only 1.5 years older than last year's QB1, Kenny Pickett!)

Say you're Atlanta or Carolina - and you wanted to trade up for one of the top rookies - that's going to cost your 1st + additional 1st++ at the least to move up. For a QB you don't even know is good. This is Lamar. He's pretty good. You know what you're getting.

It's the guaranteed money that is the sticking point here. The Picks definitely don't matter; that's a cheap version of the going rate.

The funniest thing to me in all of this is Atlanta saying "we're not interested in Lamar Jackson" less than 10 minutes after the tag was announced.

Acting as if they weren't balls-deep trying to get Deshaun Watson at this exact time a year ago. What's different this time, guys? Not enough off-field issues for your usual taste in rushing QB's?

[murphysxm]

Acting as if they weren't balls-deep trying to get Deshaun Watson at this exact time a year ago. What's different this time, guys? Not enough off-field issues for your usual taste in rushing QB's?

It is the guaranteed money. It is an not insignificant point

[FantasyFreak]

Acting as if they weren't balls-deep trying to get Deshaun Watson at this exact time a year ago. What's different this time, guys? Not enough off-field issues for your usual taste in rushing QB's?

It is the guaranteed money. It is an not insignificant point

Yeah, the reason Cleveland got him was because they paid a substantial amount more. He wasn't interested in Cleveland until that point, if I remember correctly.

[Ice]

Or it could be that NFL teams have already performed some due diligence and their investigation has turned up that Jackson’s starting point is the fully guaranteed contract in excess of Watson’s and they simply have no interest in entering into such a stupid business arrangement when they also have to give up 2 1st rounders to do so (which are golden to most teams).

Pushing back here.

QB's traded last year:
Russell Wilson - 2x 1sts, 2x 2nds, multiple players, additional pick swap
Deshaun Watson - 3x 1sts, 1x 3rd, 2x 4ths

2x 1sts alone is actually an incredibly competitive price for Lamar, a 26-yo former MVP, in a trade.

Say you're Atlanta or Carolina - and you wanted to trade up for one of the top rookies - that's going to cost your 1st + additional 1st++ at the least to move up. For a QB you don't even know is good. This is Lamar. He's pretty good. You know what you're getting.

It's the guaranteed money that is the sticking point here. The Picks definitely don't matter; that's a cheap version of the going rate.

The funniest thing to me in all of this is Atlanta saying "we're not interested in Lamar Jackson" less than 10 minutes after the tag was announced.

Acting as if they weren't balls-deep trying to get Deshaun Watson at this exact time a year ago. What's different this time, guys? Not enough off-field issues for your usual taste in rushing QB's?

The Picks are not the issue

Lamar is worth picks. The issue is the same. Teams don’t want to give away an even more stupid amounts of guaranteed money than they already do on a player that has missed 10 games the last 2 years.

No team really wants to negotiate with momma most likely when the demands are Watson’s contract as starting point plus give 2 picks on top.

Lamar needs a real agent in a bad way. He got an offer way better already than the 32 million.

He left millions on the table last year as well.

He is becoming the L. Bell of QB’s and seems to look more ridiculous with each passing day.

Atlanta didn’t give Watson a 100% Guaranteed Deal back then so why would anyone think they would today.

[mild]

Acting as if they weren't balls-deep trying to get Deshaun Watson at this exact time a year ago. What's different this time, guys? Not enough off-field issues for your usual taste in rushing QB's?

It is the guaranteed money. It is an not insignificant point

No doubt. But how close were they last year on giving Deshaun Watson... and everything that comes with him... something similar to what Cleveland gave him, if not fully guaranteed? We thought he was landing in Atlanta until Cleveland pulled out the fully guaranteed card.

They were fine being in that bidding war. Now they don't even want to pick up the phone.

"Nah, we've got Desmond Ridder. We're good, guys."

[Servo]

Don't teams have until the summer to truly act on this? And all of the ones who say they are "out" could easily be playing hard to get until the draft is over?

My understanding is:
Why give up your 2023 first now, when you wait until May or June to hash out a deal for Lamar that he can't refuse and give up '24 and '25 1sts. The risk here, of course, is that the Ravens decide to match it and you're screwed to some degree because maybe you drafted in 2023 with the idea that Lamar coulda/woulda/shoulda been there for this season.

Nevertheless, maybe no one wants to pay Lamar that kind of money and no one even makes an offer.

[mild]

No team really wants to negotiate with momma most likely when the demands are Watson’s contract as starting point plus give 2 picks on top.

That would still be cheaper than what the Browns gave up for Watson. (3x 1sts + the contract)

For a player with a LOT less baggage.

Lamar's demand of having the contract be fully guaranteed is probably going to have to budge if he doesn't want to have to play on a Franchise Tag this year.

I don't think he looks ridiculous, though. This is only getting started. It's only going to take one team realising that they're -that- desperate for a QB... alternatively, if he "settles" for an 80% gtd. contract, I could see the bidding getting good then, too.

[FantasyFreak]

No team really wants to negotiate with momma most likely when the demands are Watson’s contract as starting point plus give 2 picks on top.

That would still be cheaper than what the Browns gave up for Watson. (3x 1sts + the contract)

For a player with a LOT less baggage.

Lamar's demand of having the contract be fully guaranteed is probably going to have to budge if he doesn't want to have to play on a Franchise Tag this year.

I don't think he looks ridiculous, though. This is only getting started. It's only going to take one team realising that they're -that- desperate for a QB... alternatively, if he "settles" for an 80% gtd. contract, I could see the bidding getting good then, too.

The other thing that is an issue, is that teams will either have to change their personnel on offense, to suit the running style QB, and make wholesale changes the way the Ravens did to try and maximize that, or, take the risk that Lamar can be an elite pocket passer with significantly less designed runs. That's a risk considering the capital in draft and cash you have to give up. His injury history is also probably not the greatest thing for his situation.

Teams certainly need QB's, but some might prefer to just say, let's take Stroud, or move up a bit and take him, and go with a QB on a rookie deal. Teams like the Panthers, and Falcons, who are in the wheel house of the QB's in this draft. If they like the looks of Stroud, they may feel it's better long term (5 years) to build around a quality young QB, on a rookie deal, and save cap space and draft capital.

I think the Jets are going the Rodgers route, they have a really good D, and a some WR talent. A win now type move with a QB who is a surefire HOF'er with a ring, that has a top end D behind him so that he doesn't have to carry the team, isn't the worst strategy for the next couple of years.

[Pullo Vision]

There are no outliers. Every barrier-breaking NFL contract, becomes the new normal.

There's been a number of changes to player movement in the NFL. When the court was hearing the case that led to unrestricted free agency, the NFL's lawyer argued the NFLPA's position would lead to the destruction of the NFL as it was then known. Players used to be on 1 year contracts that team could re-up as many times as they wanted.

With how often people argue that having to give two 1sts as a part of signing a non exclusive tagged player is a factor, this is relevant.

The [Rozelle] Rule allowed the Commissioner, at his discretion, the right to award compensation from a team signing a free agent to the team losing the free agent, unless the teams agreed on a compensation prior to signing. Compensation could be in the form of players, draft choices or cash considerations. Any decision the commissioner made was final and conclusive.
In 1976, the NFLPA challenged the Rozelle Rule in Mackey v. NFL. The court found that the rule violated Section 1 of the Sherman Act as an unreasonable restraint on trade. The court stated that the rule deterred clubs from negotiating with and signing free agents, decreased players' bargaining power in contract negotiations, denied players the right to sell services in an open market, and hindered the movement in interstate commerce of players.
However, the NFLPA sacrificed its free agency victory in Mackey v. NFL for other employment benefits in the 1977 NFL CBA. The Rozelle Rule was replaced by something very similar: the right of first refusal and a compensation structure for teams losing free agents.

The court ruling makes it sound like the non exclusive tag is a violation of the Sherman Act for creating "an unreasonable restraint on trade." Would be interesting the status of those "employment benefits", and if the league hasn't fully followed up on their end.
https://www.patriots.com/news/the-histo ... ree-agency

[Forza_Azzurri]

No team really wants to negotiate with momma most likely when the demands are Watson’s contract as starting point plus give 2 picks on top.

That would still be cheaper than what the Browns gave up for Watson. (3x 1sts + the contract)

For a player with a LOT less baggage.

Lamar's demand of having the contract be fully guaranteed is probably going to have to budge if he doesn't want to have to play on a Franchise Tag this year.

I don't think he looks ridiculous, though. This is only getting started. It's only going to take one team realising that they're -that- desperate for a QB... alternatively, if he "settles" for an 80% gtd. contract, I could see the bidding getting good then, too.

The other thing that is an issue, is that teams will either have to change their personnel on offense, to suit the running style QB, and make wholesale changes the way the Ravens did to try and maximize that, or, take the risk that Lamar can be an elite pocket passer with significantly less designed runs. That's a risk considering the capital in draft and cash you have to give up. His injury history is also probably not the greatest thing for his situation.

I'm not so sure about that. I think part of the beef Lamar has with Baltimore is that the Ravens offense was too limiting. I don't think Lamar will ever be Mahomes, Allen, Burrow or Herbert, but I think with better weapons at WR he could be a better passing threat than Hurts or Kyler.

[remedy29]

Acting as if they weren't balls-deep trying to get Deshaun Watson at this exact time a year ago. What's different this time, guys? Not enough off-field issues for your usual taste in rushing QB's?

It is the guaranteed money. It is an not insignificant point

No doubt. But how close were they last year on giving Deshaun Watson... and everything that comes with him... something similar to what Cleveland gave him, if not fully guaranteed? We thought he was landing in Atlanta until Cleveland pulled out the fully guaranteed card.

They were fine being in that bidding war. Now they don't even want to pick up the phone.

"Nah, we've got Desmond Ridder. We're good, guys."

I wouldn't get caught up in offseason noise or statements.

Presumably, Lamar has let his contract demands be known. Teams are responding to those demands. If they need to make a public comment on it, so be it, they will say something to get the media to stop asking questions.

Its called negotiating. Non of which any of us are aware of, or ever will be. This has been day 1.

Lamar may think he is worth a guaranteed money, more than Watson, and be the highest paid QB. Teams, however, may feel differently on a player who hasn't proved to be a good passer and has missed the last 2 season's playoffs being injured.

Another factor in the guaranteed money is money up front.
"when owners sign a player to a fully guaranteed contract, NFL rules require the team to place the full dollar amount of the contract into an escrow account."
Not every team can easily do this.