Way, way, waaaay too early 2023 Draft class thread

[Valhalla]

I won't be owning any shares of Johnston.

Let's say you're at 5, and Bijan/Gibbs/JSN/Addison are all off the board? Trade out or who do you take (not arguing, just curious)?

Rod Tidwell. Ya KNOW!?

[lic217]

BUF needs to concede that their committee approach at RB has been a disaster for the past few years. There are at least 3 legit 3 down RBs in this draft who would fit perfectly into their system. Let the guys on the roster now move down into situational depth like they warrant.

Their rbs are not the problem. It is their refusal to run the ball that is. Their lack of balance is why they got bounced out of the playoffs.

[wickerkat1212]

I won't be owning any shares of Johnston.

Let's say you're at 5, and Bijan/Gibbs/JSN/Addison are all off the board? Trade out or who do you take (not arguing, just curious)?

Good question. Non-superflex, I may take a RB or may take Johnston there. Superflex I'd take a QB obviously. Somebody else said Charbonnet, but I don't know the RBs well enough yet beyond the top two. Tough question.

[YouMightDieTryin]

I won't be owning any shares of Johnston.

Let's say you're at 5, and Bijan/Gibbs/JSN/Addison are all off the board? Trade out or who do you take (not arguing, just curious)?

Charbonnet, and I’m running up to the podium to turn in the card.

x2. Not sure I'm running, but Charb would be my current selection. Also in the mix is Tucker/Evans if they test/draft well. I also have the 1.8 so I'm perfectly fine waiting to see if Johnston falls. He might have a high ceiling, but I'm not sure I want to take the risk with him.

[wickerkat1212]

Let's say you're at 5, and Bijan/Gibbs/JSN/Addison are all off the board? Trade out or who do you take (not arguing, just curious)?

Charbonnet, and I’m running up to the podium to turn in the card.

x2. Not sure I'm running, but Charb would be my current selection. Also in the mix is Tucker/Evans if they test/draft well. I also have the 1.8 so I'm perfectly fine waiting to see if Johnston falls. He might have a high ceiling, but I'm not sure I want to take the risk with him.

1.08 is about where I start thinking about taking him, but I don't have him as the WR1 in this class, as I've seen some media say. IDK, I could be wrong. We'll see how the combine goes. I'll be watching that gauntlet closely.

[Pullo Vision]

Dane Brugler asked his team sources last year why so few QBs went in the first, and first two rounds overall. He got alot of replies that teams had future scouted and said the 2023 class looked alot better than the 22 one,so they were willing to be patient and wait. Guys like Ridder/Corral/Willis went where they did because they were values in the 3rd. Brugler opined that that cohort would have otherwise started going in the late 1st if not for this year's perceived strength at the position.

Interesting to hear how it played out previously, wonder if the 2022 college season changes that appraisal of this class, and would be curious if next year's (apparent) elite top end could lead to doing the same thing this year.

[stoneghost28]

There is hyperbole and there is falsity

TE is a notorious slow burn position. 3-5 years is generally the expectation. Players like Engram and Njoku are just finding their footing after being hyped in one of the best TE classes ever in 2017.

If you get an earlier breakout, you're very lucky.

Hmm, I’ve looked this up before, and from what I recall, most studs at the TE position are breaking out in year 2 or 3 I believe. Probably easy enough to check, might do that later.


Edit:
Trying to keep it to post year 2000

Year 2 breakouts
Kittle
Gronk
Graham
Kelce
Ertz
Gates
Witten


Guys who took 4+ years to break out;
Olsen
Waller
Vernon Davis
Maybe you could argue Delanie Walker or Heath Miller, but that’s questionable


Trying to think of other stud TE’s and am drawing a blank. Maybe for TE’s in general it takes a while, I wouldn’t know I didnt look it up. But stud TEs typically break out within 2 years.

The problem is, you don't know which one is the stud. Sure you know which one the NFL thinks is the stud, that loaded '17 class you mentioned? All of the perceived studs were not close to Kittle who was taken way after a ton of them went.

Lets be straight, most studs at anything break out early, but at TE, there aren't a lot of Kelce's sitting around which is why in any given year, there's only about 2 or 3 TE's that anyone will invest any kind of draft capital in a start up in the position.

People pepper rookie drafts in the hopes that they're peeling off one of those studs near every year, but most of the time they end up being wrong rather than right. In '16 they were wrong, in '17 they were wrong, in '18 freaking Hurst, old as hell hurst, went first, and people argued for him over Goedert (and Goedert still took years to wrestle the job away from Ertz's corpse) and the summer of '17 consensus #1 TE Mark Andrews who tumbled to 3rd or lower on most boards after getting picked on by scouts following his final college season, in '19 you had Hockenson and Fant and both did hit, but neither delivered big production early and neither became the studs people had hoped for even when they hit (there's a reason Kelce would go in startups in rounds 2 and 3 and Hockenson was still going in the late single digits rounds every year). 2020 stunk, none of them have paid off, I still day dream about a non-existent career Trautman is having in some alternate universe, not the utterly useless one he's having in ours. Pitts was Pitts, it aint his fault the falcons are run by dolts etc.

What it comes down to is the simple fact that generally speaking, you don't know who the guy is:

Nobody knew in the '17 class it wasn't the day 1 or day 2 guys, it was day 3 guy Kittle.

Few knew that it was STILL Mark Andrews that was the #1 in the '18 class even if the NFL fell asleep on him, I can look back at those rookie drafts and a lot of people preferred Goedert and Hurst, and both basically took what 3.5 seasons to be remotely worth starting? At least Andrews good largely from the jump but he wasn't going first or second among that group.

In '19 people used high mid 1sts on Hockenson and didn't see a TE1 until season 2, and never saw the breakout star they were hoping for. Fant kind of pulled an Evan Engram, lots of promise, but lots of limitations due to playing for garbage teams, didn't exactly pay you back either.

'20 was a disaster class.

In '21 we got Pitts, but a lot of people were regretting the draft capital used on him last year. It aint his fault, he's still a stud, he's just on a foolish team.

I guess from my perspective, I just dont see the point on wasting draft capital on TE's in round 1. Honestly I've nearly reached the point of just preferring to trade for them, or mine the waiver wire, and rotate guys in and out, hoping I can get by until I can swing a trade. About half my teams have a legit TE1 via Kittle/Goedert/Hockenson and the like, and I did throw some darts at Trey last year after Arizona took him, but I can definitely be counted among the group that has rostered guys for 2 years waiting for the breakout, breakout never happening, and having cut guys who actually did breakout at other positions in the process. I honestly think you can either play the waiver wire game, or trade for a stud game, just don't get caught in the middle, keeping prospects for years and hoping for the best, while cutting better guys just in case Brevin Jordan does it for the next coach or whatever.

It just seems like a waste to me, but if you have a talent for selecting the right TE, the stud in that class, and avoiding the chaff, go for it. It just has to be the perfection situation where you're right that he's a stud (like a Kittle or Goedert or Andrews) and you're also right that he'll get the opportunity (Kittle and Andrews yes, Goedert no).

[stoneghost28]

What do you think is the smarter route for 3rd/4th round picks? Draft a TE where you know you'll have to wait for them to hit OR take a highly athletic dart throw RB/WR (Pacheco for recent example) that could hit/be a nice flip piece.

Most people picked up Chig or Bellinger this year. Some knew Dulcich would be something and stole him in the 4th. Just curious what the odds might be on taking those risks.

I think people just forget that generally speaking you're going to cut these guys before they hit to cover for roster bye's. Unless you play with enormous rosters there is only so long you can afford to stash a 3rd/4th round TE that is unlikely to hit until year 3 before you cave and just cut the guy when you have waiver needs to cover for injured players or guys on byes etc.

It just ends up being a fools errand to me. Should I really keep Kahale Warring 1 more year, or should I cut him now to make room for a waiver wire add? You have these internal discussions in your head about guys over and over year after year waiting after waiting and eventually you end up losing sleeper RB's and WR's you should have kept to house Jonnu 1 more week, or Conklin 1 more week or whatever.

At this point I'm just more of a mind to trade those picks as sweetner in other deals unless there's a guy I really like that I know will be available late.

I'd rather just trade for TE depth, or dumpster dive for prospect TE's than waste draft capital on them in round 3 or 4, I just think it makes more sense long term.

Going for the elite guys? I can see that, kind of, especially if they aren't blocked by other talent a la Goedert, but I definitely no longer see the point in using 3rds and 4ths on speculative adds and I tend to think even the expensive guys are hit and miss and cost a ton to sit and not produce in far too many instances.

[wickerkat1212]

What do you think is the smarter route for 3rd/4th round picks? Draft a TE where you know you'll have to wait for them to hit OR take a highly athletic dart throw RB/WR (Pacheco for recent example) that could hit/be a nice flip piece.

Most people picked up Chig or Bellinger this year. Some knew Dulcich would be something and stole him in the 4th. Just curious what the odds might be on taking those risks.

I think people just forget that generally speaking you're going to cut these guys before they hit to cover for roster bye's. Unless you play with enormous rosters there is only so long you can afford to stash a 3rd/4th round TE that is unlikely to hit until year 3 before you cave and just cut the guy when you have waiver needs to cover for injured players or guys on byes etc.

It just ends up being a fools errand to me. Should I really keep Kahale Warring 1 more year, or should I cut him now to make room for a waiver wire add? You have these internal discussions in your head about guys over and over year after year waiting after waiting and eventually you end up losing sleeper RB's and WR's you should have kept to house Jonnu 1 more week, or Conklin 1 more week or whatever.

At this point I'm just more of a mind to trade those picks as sweetner in other deals unless there's a guy I really like that I know will be available late.

I'd rather just trade for TE depth, or dumpster dive for prospect TE's than waste draft capital on them in round 3 or 4, I just think it makes more sense long term.

Going for the elite guys? I can see that, kind of, especially if they aren't blocked by other talent a la Goedert, but I definitely no longer see the point in using 3rds and 4ths on speculative adds and I tend to think even the expensive guys are hit and miss and cost a ton to sit and not produce in far too many instances.

The TEs are so wild. Kelce at 300+ points stands alone. Hock is #2 with over 200. 17 guys over 100 points, 3 over 150.

Good points. I mean, on my various 1 QB leagues out of the top 32 TEs who is there right now?

#22 Akins 93 points
#26 Dissly 85 points
#28 Moreau 85 points

You're just as likely to grab a guy off WW (as I've done with LThomas, Hooper, and RTonyan). I do tend to carry a few TEs though, so at some point we're going to grab Mayer, Kincaid, Kraft, and/or Washington.

[stoneghost28]

I won't be owning any shares of Johnston.

Let's say you're at 5, and Bijan/Gibbs/JSN/Addison are all off the board? Trade out or who do you take (not arguing, just curious)?

Good question. Non-superflex, I may take a RB or may take Johnston there. Superflex I'd take a QB obviously. Somebody else said Charbonnet, but I don't know the RBs well enough yet beyond the top two. Tough question.

Yeah, probably should've mentioned 1QB, but figured the list of the gone guys would illustrate that.

There's a clear spot in the draft where it gets hinky and that's around slot 5-6 depending upon how you rate the WR's in 1QB leagues. In 2QB obviously the depth gets you to at least 1.08 to 1.09 before you have to make hard decisions.

I'm having a hard time with the the RB's in the next tier, and w/what to do at WR. Can I afford to trade down a good chunk for Boutte, or just RB's I like as much as other guys etc. I wont be taking Mayer at 1.06. I just don't do that w/TE. Id prefer trading to address the position than using a high first.

So for me, its Johnson or a trade down, I haven't dug into the prospects enough yet, and as it goes w/o saying, the combine+the draft will shake this all up to some degree anyway. Bad landing spots (seemingly de rigueur) will have an effect, and I'm just less comfortable with this WR class in general then with past ones.

[wickerkat1212]

Let's say you're at 5, and Bijan/Gibbs/JSN/Addison are all off the board? Trade out or who do you take (not arguing, just curious)?

Good question. Non-superflex, I may take a RB or may take Johnston there. Superflex I'd take a QB obviously. Somebody else said Charbonnet, but I don't know the RBs well enough yet beyond the top two. Tough question.

Yeah, probably should've mentioned 1QB, but figured the list of the gone guys would illustrate that.

There's a clear spot in the draft where it gets hinky and that's around slot 5-6 depending upon how you rate the WR's in 1QB leagues. In 2QB obviously the depth gets you to at least 1.08 to 1.09 before you have to make hard decisions.

I'm having a hard time with the the RB's in the next tier, and w/what to do at WR. Can I afford to trade down a good chunk for Boutte, or just RB's I like as much as other guys etc. I wont be taking Mayer at 1.06. I just don't do that w/TE. Id prefer trading to address the position than using a high first.

So for me, its Johnson or a trade down, I haven't dug into the prospects enough yet, and as it goes w/o saying, the combine+the draft will shake this all up to some degree anyway. Bad landing spots (seemingly de rigueur) will have an effect, and I'm just less comfortable with this WR class in general then with past ones.

There are guys I like a lot in the 2nd, and I have a solid list of WR, the first 6-8 or so. I don't have most of my 1st round picks this year (only in Superflex 1.05) and am also missing my 2nds in two leagues so...I'll miss on a lot of guys sadly, unless I trade back in.

[stoneghost28]

Good question. Non-superflex, I may take a RB or may take Johnston there. Superflex I'd take a QB obviously. Somebody else said Charbonnet, but I don't know the RBs well enough yet beyond the top two. Tough question.

Yeah, probably should've mentioned 1QB, but figured the list of the gone guys would illustrate that.

There's a clear spot in the draft where it gets hinky and that's around slot 5-6 depending upon how you rate the WR's in 1QB leagues. In 2QB obviously the depth gets you to at least 1.08 to 1.09 before you have to make hard decisions.

I'm having a hard time with the the RB's in the next tier, and w/what to do at WR. Can I afford to trade down a good chunk for Boutte, or just RB's I like as much as other guys etc. I wont be taking Mayer at 1.06. I just don't do that w/TE. Id prefer trading to address the position than using a high first.

So for me, its Johnson or a trade down, I haven't dug into the prospects enough yet, and as it goes w/o saying, the combine+the draft will shake this all up to some degree anyway. Bad landing spots (seemingly de rigueur) will have an effect, and I'm just less comfortable with this WR class in general then with past ones.

There are guys I like a lot in the 2nd, and I have a solid list of WR, the first 6-8 or so. I don't have most of my 1st round picks this year (only in Superflex 1.05) and am also missing my 2nds in two leagues so...I'll miss on a lot of guys sadly, unless I trade back in.

Last year was the first, and only draft I've really been in since I started playing dynasty where I actually traded some of my 1sts (3 of 16 teams). I just wasn't a big fan of the '22 class at the back end, and all the teams I sold off picks from were playoff teams save one. This year I've got all my firsts and some extra's in some leagues. My chief frustration is just that I only landed 1.01 in 1 league (via a trade w/an owner with a terrible roster circa '21 where I thought that #1 would likely be top 3 in '23, it ended up landing 1.01), other than that, the firsts tend to be around 1.02-1.04, some 1.05's, and 1.06's, and then a pile of 1.10-1.12's. This year I either won titles, lost titles, or finished about 2/3's of my teams, and the crappier ones sat in the 1.02-1.06 area.

I do like the RB's in that 2nd tier, and plan on just taking swings at RB w/those picks beyond just going after Boutte. Very curious about Roschon Johnson, he's probably going to be high on my target list if he can grab some good draft capital.

[wickerkat1212]

Yeah, probably should've mentioned 1QB, but figured the list of the gone guys would illustrate that.

There's a clear spot in the draft where it gets hinky and that's around slot 5-6 depending upon how you rate the WR's in 1QB leagues. In 2QB obviously the depth gets you to at least 1.08 to 1.09 before you have to make hard decisions.

I'm having a hard time with the the RB's in the next tier, and w/what to do at WR. Can I afford to trade down a good chunk for Boutte, or just RB's I like as much as other guys etc. I wont be taking Mayer at 1.06. I just don't do that w/TE. Id prefer trading to address the position than using a high first.

So for me, its Johnson or a trade down, I haven't dug into the prospects enough yet, and as it goes w/o saying, the combine+the draft will shake this all up to some degree anyway. Bad landing spots (seemingly de rigueur) will have an effect, and I'm just less comfortable with this WR class in general then with past ones.

There are guys I like a lot in the 2nd, and I have a solid list of WR, the first 6-8 or so. I don't have most of my 1st round picks this year (only in Superflex 1.05) and am also missing my 2nds in two leagues so...I'll miss on a lot of guys sadly, unless I trade back in.

Last year was the first, and only draft I've really been in since I started playing dynasty where I actually traded some of my 1sts (3 of 16 teams). I just wasn't a big fan of the '22 class at the back end, and all the teams I sold off picks from were playoff teams save one. This year I've got all my firsts and some extra's in some leagues. My chief frustration is just that I only landed 1.01 in 1 league (via a trade w/an owner with a terrible roster circa '21 where I thought that #1 would likely be top 3 in '23, it ended up landing 1.01), other than that, the firsts tend to be around 1.02-1.04, some 1.05's, and 1.06's, and then a pile of 1.10-1.12's. This year I either won titles, lost titles, or finished about 2/3's of my teams, and the crappier ones sat in the 1.02-1.06 area.

I do like the RB's in that 2nd tier, and plan on just taking swings at RB w/those picks beyond just going after Boutte. Very curious about Roschon Johnson, he's probably going to be high on my target list if he can grab some good draft capital.

Yeah, I have a good list going about seven deep, then it starts to get murky. There is some nice depth at WR this year, and people seem to think at RB as well.

[Patsfan86]

Zay Flowers seems to be a guy the NFL is going to be higher on than these boards are. Could be a nice value later on. I’ve barely heard him mentioned here or anywhere else in the fantasy community. Is that because he played for BC?

[Bronco Billy]

Zay Flowers seems to be a guy the NFL is going to be higher on than these boards are. Could be a nice value later on. I’ve barely heard him mentioned here or anywhere else in the fantasy community. Is that because he played for BC?

Flowers is another guy I’m hoping will be there at my 1.10. I really like his skill set a ton despite his size. He just flat out gets open - sometimes it’s almost criminally easy for him - he can play on the outside or in the slot, has great spacial awareness, he’s a threat at all 3 levels and can take the top of the D in a heartbeat, and his open field ability with the ball in his hands is just flat out outstanding.

I’m a little concerned about his drop rate and he’s not going to help out much on running plays, so it’s not all sunshine. But I’ll take him later in the first and be very happy about it.