Jalen Hurts: What's the verdict?

[murphysxm]

Hurts is obviously a very good fantasy QB and is very steady as a leader. I really like his personality and think he will be successful because of it.

But I was in not so impressed with his passing in the Super Bowl and doubly so the NFC championship game, where he was abysmal. He played so poorly against Niners D that with a healthy Purdy that kept the ball out of his hands more I doubt he would have gotten to even 100 yards passing, even with the Devonta non-catch counting - I mean Hurts only had 121 yards in the air on 25 attempts including that 29yd Devonta catch. To me it was one of the worst performances against the Niners D I watched all season. Bottom 5 at least.

I wonder what happens when, as happens with all rushing QBs, he gets injured or can no longer rely on his legs as he ages. And what happens losing multiple important coaches. And what happens when he signs a big co tract likely after next season and loses probably 2-3 All-Pro/Pro Bowl level teammates on his roster because of it.

And as I posted in the Mahomes thread, 17 straight QBs who lost their Super Bowl debut never again returned to the Super Bowl as a starter.

I doubt he is ever worth more than he is right now. He’s the number one sell at QB in dynasty imo, unless you count finding someone to overpay you for say Lance or Murray or Prescott, which isn’t likely in any good league.

Man you are exhausting. Literally set Super Bowl records.

[dondickenson]

Hurts is obviously a very good fantasy QB and is very steady as a leader. I really like his personality and think he will be successful because of it.

But I was in not so impressed with his passing in the Super Bowl and doubly so the NFC championship game, where he was abysmal. He played so poorly against Niners D that with a healthy Purdy that kept the ball out of his hands more I doubt he would have gotten to even 100 yards passing, even with the Devonta non-catch counting - I mean Hurts only had 121 yards in the air on 25 attempts including that 29yd Devonta catch. To me it was one of the worst performances against the Niners D I watched all season. Bottom 5 at least.

I wonder what happens when, as happens with all rushing QBs, he gets injured or can no longer rely on his legs as he ages. And what happens losing multiple important coaches. And what happens when he signs a big co tract likely after next season and loses probably 2-3 All-Pro/Pro Bowl level teammates on his roster because of it.

And as I posted in the Mahomes thread, 17 straight QBs who lost their Super Bowl debut never again returned to the Super Bowl as a starter.

I doubt he is ever worth more than he is right now. He’s the number one sell at QB in dynasty imo, unless you count finding someone to overpay you for say Lance or Murray or Prescott, which isn’t likely in any good league.

Man you are exhausting. Literally set Super Bowl records.

I’d appreciate it if you stayed on subject and didn’t act like an asshole towards me or anyone else on these boards anymore. It’s completely out of line and only displays your lack of character.

Why not address the actual post and the fact that Hurts played piss poor against the Niners? Or the very very real concerns that exist for his future when his legs run out and his contract makes his team significantly worse?

[dondickenson]

One case that Hurts brings to mind is Dak Prescott. Definitely have their differences and Dak is not as good a rusher(even before injury) and will simply never be the leader with the poise that Hurts has, but here is what happened to Dak that concerns Hurts…

In 2019 Dak had an elite O line, and was averaging 300+ yards rushing and 6 TDs for his first 3 years in the league and then threw that year for 4900y and 30 TDs. Then in 2020, he got hurt, which is not unexpected for QBs who run a lot. In 2021 he signed his mega contract and his O line has deteriorated since, and so has Dak. He’s run for something like 300 yards and 2 TDs in his last 2 full season combined, and he no longer has the protection or talent around him to perform as an elite QB like he did earlier in his career.

In 2022, Hurts had not only an elite O line but THE elite O line; one of the best ever to play the game. He had elite weapons, and was an absolute beast running the ball. What happens if/when he hits the same set of issues that Dak and so many other QBs have hit? Or is he just magically immune and didn’t benefit at all from everything about his situation being as good as it will likely ever get?

[mild]

In 2022, Hurts had not only an elite O line but THE elite O line; one of the best ever to play the game. He had elite weapons, and was an absolute beast running the ball. What happens if/when he hits the same set of issues that Dak and so many other QBs have hit? Or is he just magically immune and didn’t benefit at all from everything about his situation being as good as it will likely ever get?

How about we worry about that in 2024 when it's actually an issue? Because the whole gang is back for 2023 at this stage.

Unless, y'know, you don't like winning fantasy leagues, I guess that's fair.

The number 1 QB sell in fantasy eh... I look forward to asking how that's going in the future. If you're saying "sell him now" then I can't imagine you had many (or any) shares to begin with, sounds like you would have sold a long time ago...

[Ice]

In 2022, Hurts had not only an elite O line but THE elite O line; one of the best ever to play the game. He had elite weapons, and was an absolute beast running the ball. What happens if/when he hits the same set of issues that Dak and so many other QBs have hit? Or is he just magically immune and didn’t benefit at all from everything about his situation being as good as it will likely ever get?

How about we worry about that in 2024 when it's actually an issue? Because the whole gang is back for 2023 at this stage.

Unless, y'know, you don't like winning fantasy leagues, I guess that's fair.

The number 1 QB sell in fantasy eh... I look forward to asking how that's going in the future. If you're saying "sell him now" then I can't imagine you had many (or any) shares to begin with, sounds like you would have sold a long time ago...

I get varying opinions but as it relates to the O Line of the Eagles;

Lane Johnson is one of the best RT in the league but he turns 33 in May and is getting ready to go through surgery for a torn abductor.

Jason Kelce is already a 1st ballot HOF type but he is 35 and turns 36 in November. These are their best two players and both could call it a career at any time and if not the inevitable drop off could happen early next year.

Isaac Seumalo the RG turns 30 in October

We have seen teams coming off SB appearances and it usually isn't pretty.

I could also see Hurts having clean up surgery on his throwing shoulder he hurt during the season in the next few weeks. I haven't heard anything but that is pretty common.

Some may want to wait until 2024 to worry but my guess is the Eagles are already quite concerned about the O Line. They played together most of the year but they are of that age that succession plans are a high priority.

That said, Hurts has proven himself IMO and is a Hold, not a sell in fantasy.

[trc]

I doubt he is ever worth more than he is right now. He’s the number one sell at QB in dynasty imo, unless you count finding someone to overpay you for say Lance or Murray or Prescott, which isn’t likely in any good league.

I guess the bolded part is true.

But saying he's the number one sell right now is imo wrong. It really depends on circumstances and I can only see him as a sell if you are looking at a multiple year rebuild -> and that is only because in a rebuild I don't like planning 2-3+ years ahead with an elite rushing QB on my roster.

[dondickenson]

I doubt he is ever worth more than he is right now. He’s the number one sell at QB in dynasty imo, unless you count finding someone to overpay you for say Lance or Murray or Prescott, which isn’t likely in any good league.

I guess the bolded part is true.

But saying he's the number one sell right now is imo wrong. It really depends on circumstances and I can only see him as a sell if you are looking at a multiple year rebuild -> and that is only because in a rebuild I don't like planning 2-3+ years ahead with an elite rushing QB on my roster.

That’s fair. I’ve just had a lot more success, winning competitive leagues at 2-3x the rate that I theoretically should for the last 25 years of playing, by fading running QBs. It’s a long list of guys that gave only a few years of elite play before falling off the map hard.

Guys like Cunningham, Young, McNair, Vick, RGIII, Kaep, Newton, Dak are some of the best examples of running QBs that all couldn’t keep it up with their legs, took beatings, and fell off hard at some point too early compared to the elite pocket passers. Take a look at Andrew Luck, who had near 1000 yards and 12 TDs rushing in his first 3 years in the league, before managing just 148 yards and 0 TDs in the year before he abruptly retired because of the abuse his body took.

I think I have just been around the block too many times to put any amount of trust in these running QBs, and Hurts relies on his running as much as any of the above guys, making him very vulnerable to that swift downfall. What he does have going for him is the rules nowadays, which keep QBs a lot safer. So I would guess he lasts several years being able to run like he does, but the threat of soft tissue injury is always looming for these guys(like Kyler), or just losing a bit of athleticism each year they get older, and being forced to rely on their pocket passing. Then there is what was brought up about his situation likely never getting better, with potential for the bottom to fall out if/when he loses multiple HoF linemen and gets his mega contract in the next 1-2 seasons.

In sum I get chasing these running QBs, but I’d much rather go after guys like Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence who have longer horizons as elite players, with perhaps slightly lower ultimate ceilings in the next year or two, than guys like LJax, Murray, Hurts, Fields, who I see burn their owners time and again and flame out quicker.

Shoot Kirk Cousins has been very good to me, outright winning me leagues time and again over the last 8 years, having 6 QB1 seasons and 2 high end QB2 seasons during that time. Paying virtually nothing for that production has allowed me to absolutely stack my rosters elsewhere and consistently beat the guys that pay way too much for and neglect to sell the next hot thing at QB, which is almost always a young rushing QB.

[Pullo Vision]

Yes, Hurts has run alot. The question of determining his long term prospects hinges on his passing ability. What I've seen so far gives me confidence he'll continue to develop there, as he scales back on the runs between the 20s. I could see him continue to be a goal line endzone plunger like Brees.

[Ruggenater]

Hurts is absolutely the number one sell in dynasty—please send him my way!

I don’t know how anyone watches the Super Bowl and doesn’t come away impressed with Hurts’ passing in the game.

[dondickenson]

Hurts is absolutely the number one sell in dynasty—please send him my way!

I don’t know how anyone watches the Super Bowl and doesn’t come away impressed with Hurts’ passing in the game.

Against a very poor pass defense with absolutely perfect protection. Chiefs relied heavily on their rush to defend the pass this season, but when the rush didn’t get there they completely fell apart. They were the only team in the NFL to give up 30 or more TDs passing, and they gave up 33, which is not good, obviously.

Just two weeks prior playing against a good SF defense(whose weakness is still secondary), Hurts didn’t even put up a legit 100 yards through the air and was completely outmatched, objectively looking like one of the worst QBs the 49ers faced all year. But at least he didn’t have any catastrophic unforced errors like he did in the SB.

And no one has even attempted to address the fact that his situation was perfect in every way, and has nowhere to go but down from here. Roster, specifically OL, will get worse. His rushing ability will deteriorate. NFL isn’t likely to make rules on their scrum QB sneak any more favorable than they already are, likely less. Historically QBs in his position, whether it be on a rookie contract, SB debut loser, predominantly running QB, have regressed, often spectacularly. I guess if people want to bury their heads in the sand on this and make snarky, insightless comments here then that is on them.

It’d be more helpful if you, or one of the other posters that chooses to come here to detract from conversations, could make an argument as to why this isn’t Hurts’ absolute peak in value, or name reasons why Hurts will have a better situation and will gain value moving forward, or name a few better QB sells in dynasty right now.

[Jigga94]

Hurts is absolutely the number one sell in dynasty—please send him my way!

I don’t know how anyone watches the Super Bowl and doesn’t come away impressed with Hurts’ passing in the game.

Both QB in the SB were amazing. It's really silly that people are trying to spin it into negatives for either one. Nothing better to do I guess

[Anteaters]

Yes, Hurts has run alot. The question of determining his long term prospects hinges on his passing ability. What I've seen so far gives me confidence he'll continue to develop there, as he scales back on the runs between the 20s. I could see him continue to be a goal line endzone plunger like Brees.

I agree Hurts has improved and impressed as a passer. The problem is, all those hits from running will also eventually diminish his passing ability. Just look at Cam Newton's dead arm at 30. That's not because his arm naturally gave out at such a young age. It was directly related to all those runs where he made us go "ooohhhh" when he lowered his shoulders and fought for more yards. Hurts runs the same way. It's not unreasonable to think Hurts' throwing shoulder might wear out as quickly as Newton's did.

But Hurts is still a long way from 30. I wouldn't take away any value from him today for what his status might be at 30. But when Hurts is 28, I won't give him the same value as a 29 year old QB who hasn't taken as much punishment as a runner.

[Forza_Azzurri]

Yes, Hurts has run alot. The question of determining his long term prospects hinges on his passing ability. What I've seen so far gives me confidence he'll continue to develop there, as he scales back on the runs between the 20s. I could see him continue to be a goal line endzone plunger like Brees.

I agree Hurts has improved and impressed as a passer. The problem is, all those hits from running will also eventually diminish his passing ability. Just look at Cam Newton's dead arm at 30. That's not because his arm naturally gave out at such a young age. It was directly related to all those runs where he made us go "ooohhhh" when he lowered his shoulders and fought for more yards. Hurts runs the same way. It's not unreasonable to think Hurts' throwing shoulder might wear out as quickly as Newton's did.

But Hurts is still a long way from 30. I wouldn't take away any value from him today for what his status might be at 30. But when Hurts is 28, I won't give him the same value as a 29 year old QB who hasn't taken as much punishment as a runner.

As a Josh Allen owner, I'm worried about this, but I don't see Hurts' running style the same or as risky. To me, he runs more like Lamar.

[dondickenson]

Yes, Hurts has run alot. The question of determining his long term prospects hinges on his passing ability. What I've seen so far gives me confidence he'll continue to develop there, as he scales back on the runs between the 20s. I could see him continue to be a goal line endzone plunger like Brees.

I agree Hurts has improved and impressed as a passer. The problem is, all those hits from running will also eventually diminish his passing ability. Just look at Cam Newton's dead arm at 30. That's not because his arm naturally gave out at such a young age. It was directly related to all those runs where he made us go "ooohhhh" when he lowered his shoulders and fought for more yards. Hurts runs the same way. It's not unreasonable to think Hurts' throwing shoulder might wear out as quickly as Newton's did.

But Hurts is still a long way from 30. I wouldn't take away any value from him today for what his status might be at 30. But when Hurts is 28, I won't give him the same value as a 29 year old QB who hasn't taken as much punishment as a runner.

As a Josh Allen owner, I'm worried about this, but I don't see Hurts' running style the same or as risky. To me, he runs more like Lamar.

Injury is definitely a concern with all of them for sure, but Allen and LJax have done more on an individual level with less around them already. Hurts has a ton to prove. Think Hurts’ real skill is his poise and leadership, which fits perfectly with that stacked roster. Similar in that way to Brock Purdy.

The comparison to LJax though is apt as much as it is concerning, with LJax only having played 54 out of his last 66 reg season games - and that’s without a major injury. Hurts has started down that path, playing in 30 of his last 34.

Allen, on the other hand, has shown the best pure arm talent of the bunch and much better durability, missing only a single game in his 5 year career since taking over the starting job, aka playing in 76 of his last 77 games.

[Forza_Azzurri]

I agree Hurts has improved and impressed as a passer. The problem is, all those hits from running will also eventually diminish his passing ability. Just look at Cam Newton's dead arm at 30. That's not because his arm naturally gave out at such a young age. It was directly related to all those runs where he made us go "ooohhhh" when he lowered his shoulders and fought for more yards. Hurts runs the same way. It's not unreasonable to think Hurts' throwing shoulder might wear out as quickly as Newton's did.

But Hurts is still a long way from 30. I wouldn't take away any value from him today for what his status might be at 30. But when Hurts is 28, I won't give him the same value as a 29 year old QB who hasn't taken as much punishment as a runner.

As a Josh Allen owner, I'm worried about this, but I don't see Hurts' running style the same or as risky. To me, he runs more like Lamar.

Injury is definitely a concern with all of them for sure, but Allen and LJax have done more on an individual level with less around them already. Hurts has a ton to prove. Think Hurts’ real skill is his poise and leadership, which fits perfectly with that stacked roster. Similar in that way to Brock Purdy.

The comparison to LJax though is apt as much as it is concerning, with LJax only having played 54 out of his last 66 reg season games - and that’s without a major injury. Hurts has started down that path, playing in 30 of his last 34.

Allen, on the other hand, has shown the best pure arm talent of the bunch and much better durability, missing only a single game in his 5 year career since taking over the starting job, aka playing in 76 of his last 77 games.

LJax injuries have been lower body ... obviously not ideal. My concern with Allen is the injury to his UCL ... & yes, I know that occurred while in the pocket. But in the context of Cam Newton, once his shoulder/arm was shot, he had no chance to develop as a passer. A mobile QB with leg issues still has a chance to be a good passer. Obviously a ton of risk all around, but I'd still prefer leg injuries for a QB than arm issues.