Way, way, waaaay too early 2023 Draft class thread

[Cameron Giles]

I don’t follow college football much but Syracuse is not considered a top football school right? Probably the small school bias kicking in

They're a very mediocre program, which to me makes Tucker's production more impressive. He's not playing behind some stout offensive line or something. Everytime I watch, Tucker just pops off the screen with a lot of traits that should be desirable for an RB.

His combine will be even more interesting, because he's going to have a great 40 time.

[YouMightDieTryin]

This is from 1/24, but Dane Brugler's Top-15 by position (in order)

QB: Young, Stroud, Levis, Richardson, McKee, Hooker, Haener, O'Connell, Tune, Duggan, Bennett, Bagent, Hall, Thompson-Robinson, DeMorat

RB: Bijan, Gibbs, Achane, Charbonnet, Evans, Bigsby, Roschon, McIntosh, Spears, Abanikanda, McBride, Miller, Gray, Tucker, Rodriguez Jr.

WR: Addison, Johnston, JSN, Downs, Hyatt, Rice, Scott, Perry, Flowers, Tillman, Boutte, Washington, Wicks, Mims, Mingo

TE: Mayer, Musgrave, Washington, Kincaid, Kraft, LaPorta, Schoonmaker, Latu, Allen, Whyle, Strange, Durham, Mallory, Kuntz, Willis

- Haener as a sleeper QB to watch if you're looking for a Brock Purdy-type sleeper
- Compares Spears to James Cook and says he has three-down potential (SO YOU"RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!!!)
- Concerns from teams about Hyatt's limited route tree and Tennessee's offensive scheme, but speed and ball skills are coveted and some teams have him as a T-3 WR
- LaPorta stock rising for mental makeup, success in intermediate route running and good hands

Sean Tucker as the 14th RB is an eye opener. Wondering what the disconnect is with the NFL and dynasty community in his game.

Miller being that low is surprising.
Boutte at 10?

I don’t follow college football much but Syracuse is not considered a top football school right? Probably the small school bias kicking in

They looked past that for Javonte Williams at UNC. Skill shines through. He's being underrated, but that's also partly due to all the skill this year at the same position. The underwear Olympics will help hopefully.

[bjd5211]

This is from 1/24, but Dane Brugler's Top-15 by position (in order)

QB: Young, Stroud, Levis, Richardson, McKee, Hooker, Haener, O'Connell, Tune, Duggan, Bennett, Bagent, Hall, Thompson-Robinson, DeMorat

RB: Bijan, Gibbs, Achane, Charbonnet, Evans, Bigsby, Roschon, McIntosh, Spears, Abanikanda, McBride, Miller, Gray, Tucker, Rodriguez Jr.

WR: Addison, Johnston, JSN, Downs, Hyatt, Rice, Scott, Perry, Flowers, Tillman, Boutte, Washington, Wicks, Mims, Mingo

TE: Mayer, Musgrave, Washington, Kincaid, Kraft, LaPorta, Schoonmaker, Latu, Allen, Whyle, Strange, Durham, Mallory, Kuntz, Willis

I see Tucker being ranked really low a lot. I feel like I’m missing something because I think he is the front runner in the RB3 conversation for this class

He's not a very good receiver, and that's pretty valued in the position these days especially in a deep class. There seems to be a tendency to assume that the smaller or more athletic RBs are good receivers, while large between the tackles RBs are the ones that struggle as receivers, but that's not always the case.

[Cameron Giles]

This is from 1/24, but Dane Brugler's Top-15 by position (in order)

QB: Young, Stroud, Levis, Richardson, McKee, Hooker, Haener, O'Connell, Tune, Duggan, Bennett, Bagent, Hall, Thompson-Robinson, DeMorat

RB: Bijan, Gibbs, Achane, Charbonnet, Evans, Bigsby, Roschon, McIntosh, Spears, Abanikanda, McBride, Miller, Gray, Tucker, Rodriguez Jr.

WR: Addison, Johnston, JSN, Downs, Hyatt, Rice, Scott, Perry, Flowers, Tillman, Boutte, Washington, Wicks, Mims, Mingo

TE: Mayer, Musgrave, Washington, Kincaid, Kraft, LaPorta, Schoonmaker, Latu, Allen, Whyle, Strange, Durham, Mallory, Kuntz, Willis

I see Tucker being ranked really low a lot. I feel like I’m missing something because I think he is the front runner in the RB3 conversation for this class

He's not a very good receiver, and that's pretty valued in the position these days especially in a deep class. There seems to be a tendency to assume that the smaller or more athletic RBs are good receivers, while large between the tackles RBs are the ones that struggle as receivers, but that's not always the case.

Tucker has 60+ receptions in three seasons and a good target share. He's at least an above average receiving threat in this class.

[stoneghost28]

I've never seen any college RB of any size consistently make so many players miss.

I love the guy as a prospect too, he seems to carry a similar upside as these guys since 1999 coming out of college in terms of hype and performance:

Ricky Williams 1999
AP 2007
Saquon Barkley 2018

I can't recall anyone else, maybe LT2 twenty some odd years ago (though I don't remember the same level of height due to the obscure school, however, I will say this. There is a guy that is absolutely peerless since I've been watching college football and nobody has come within the same universe of what I saw in that era of watching college football (about 1983-2022) and that's Barry Sanders. Still don't know how he was behind Thurman Thomas, but I still remember seeing the highlights saturday nights after my soccer games as an 8th grader in 1988 and they were extraordinary.

Rushing Raw #'s:
Miami (Ohio): 18-178 and 3 TD's
Texas A&M 20-157 and 3 TD's
Tulsa: 33-304 and 5 TD's
Colorado 24-174 and 4 TD's
Nebraska 35-189 and 4 TD's
Missouri 25-154-2 TD's
Kansas State 37-320-3 TD's
Oklahoma 39-215-2 TD's
Kansas 37-312-5 TD's
Iowa State 32-293-4 TD's
Texas Tech 44-332-4 TD's
Wyoming (Bowl) 29-222-5 TD's

I don't think I'll ever see the likes of that again, I haven't in the 34 years since anyway.

[bjd5211]

And he's not particularly productive on those receptions, averaging just 7.1 yards per reception this year on a 2.0 ADoT with 8.2 YAC, so basically all of his production is just on screen passes he breaks for a decent gain and roughly 20% of his entire receiving yards for the season came on one 55 yard reception (screen he broke). He also has an 11.9% drop rate, no other RB with 35+ receptions had higher than 8.7. Only Zach Evans and Roschon Johnson had higher drop rates among the notable RBs in this class, and they only had 19 and 21 targets respectively opposed to 52 for Tucker. He got manufactured receptions because he was the best offensive weapon on a somewhat talent deficient roster that was just getting the ball in their best players hands, but he didn't produce at a very high level on those opportunities in comparison to his peers in this class.

[stoneghost28]

I think Richardson is closer to a Josh Allen pie-in-the-sky outcome.

And frankly, I'm starting to think I'd rather have Richardson than Levis. I could see Richardson becoming what people thought Trey Lance's upside is.

It's interesting, its basically balancing the floors of the higher ranked guys vs Richardson's ceiling because the evidence is that Richardson is the only dual threat QB worth investing in, and dual threat QB's are just signficantly more valuable than pocket guys. So you can bet on the risk but upside of Richardson, or bet on the more likely "hit" that is a Young or Stroud, but the lower productivity, more than likely if those guys hit, they're probably middle of the road fantasy QB's and just how valuable is that? For me, not that much unless i can get them cheap and since neither are going to be cheap, I'll probably just go after Richardson if he falls, or target other positions. I have no interest in Levis due to age. Better to me to go after Richardson, try to pry Lance, wish I had gone after Fields and Lawrence last offseason etc (admittedly nobody was trading either of those guys at a discount in my leagues).

[stoneghost28]

This is a really bad take to have on pretty much anything related to football, fantasy football, dynasty, or evaluating prospects.

Your opinion and that is fine, I do not see an avenue where Richardson is able to overcome his deficiencies that he has in regards to playing the position of QB in the NFL. I have been wrong, will again. I will also raise my hand and admit if I am so. This is not a legit NFL QB prospect in my eyes. He may find a path to being on the field as a gadget/situational tool, but he will never be a long-term NFL QB

I’m pretty much onboard with Murph here. Richardson has multiple glaring flaws as a passer. Like Lance, I just don’t see a path where the light suddenly goes on snd he overcomes those negatives sufficiently to be a long term starter in the NFL. Guys just don’t change so dramatically and become starting level NFL QB when they can’t even throw with repeatable consistency and reasonable accuracy at the college level.

It only takes one team to fall in love with the physical tools and draft him early, but I can’t help but think that a lot of teams are going to look at SF’s results to date and be very risk adverse with Richardson.

If I’m looking at taking a large risk at QB, I’d burn a much lower pick for Lindsay Scott Jr. That kid understands how to play QB and has the arm to back it up. Put a couple inches on him and he’d be a Power 5 stud.

I don't really think Lance is illustrative of anything. I would argue that he didn't look great w/the Niners, but the sample size is so infintesimal as to be irrelevent. THey weren't expecting him to start from what I can recall back in '21, they hoped he might be ready by the end of the season, but they weren't anticipating he could take over from day 1, and then in season 2 he was hurt in the first quarter of the first game. There's literally next to no usable information on the guy period. Again, I'm not gonna argue he blew people away in preseason or whatever, he did not, its not like a Howell situation where the guy looked good from the jump (not that we know yet), but it's also just a lot of white noise. Looked not ready in year 1, and then was hurt immediately in year 2.

What do people honestly take away from that that has any value in helping them make decisions? I dont know. That whole draft class is bizarro world for me except for Wilson (who seemingly everyone but the Jets and Draftniks in the media thought was crap (considering the media's take on him though, I think it's worth arguing that most NFL front offices overrated the hell out of him)):
Lawrence: Goes from an Andrew Luck Eval to horrific until the back end of '22.
Fields: My QB 1B, now a great dual threat and money throw guy but still, anemic passing that's almost comically bad. How much is the talent around him?
Lance: Not ready early then hurt.
Wilson: Sucks
Mac Jones: Fantastic 2021, horrific 2022.

Just nuts, but w/regards to Lance, there's no lesson yet from what I can tell, nobody knows what he's gonna become.

[stoneghost28]

I don't like it. Partially because you left off a comparison for Tucker and Evans. They're both my biggest question marks sitting at 1.5 on who to take. Landing spots should help out. Really enjoy Miller, but experts are all over the board on him too. Not as big of a fan of Charb because he just looks slow. I'm probably wrong, but I'm hoping he runs at the combine to clear that up. Conner isn't fast, but does everything very well so perhaps I'm looking too deep. What's the "death number" for 40s? 4.7?

The only certainty in this draft is that there's talent. The rest is uncertainty on where everyone should go.

4.65 as of a few years ago, I think one or two guys have kinda hit since then at a little slower but it still holds up really well as a drop dead number.

[Forza_Azzurri]

I think Tucker has a solid RB2 floor with RB1 ceiling. I'm hoping he gets into a good enough system to justify 1.03 because I really don't like any of the WRs that high.

[Jigga94]

I don't like it. Partially because you left off a comparison for Tucker and Evans. They're both my biggest question marks sitting at 1.5 on who to take. Landing spots should help out. Really enjoy Miller, but experts are all over the board on him too. Not as big of a fan of Charb because he just looks slow. I'm probably wrong, but I'm hoping he runs at the combine to clear that up. Conner isn't fast, but does everything very well so perhaps I'm looking too deep. What's the "death number" for 40s? 4.7?

The only certainty in this draft is that there's talent. The rest is uncertainty on where everyone should go.

4.65 as of a few years ago, I think one or two guys have kinda hit since then at a little slower but it still holds up really well as a drop dead number.

I agree with the 4.65 being the bar as of late. Originally thought Rhamondre was over that (he wouldve been the only good RB in recent memory over 4.65), but pro day was technically 4.64. I have him down with the .05 added.

A good example is Spillers stock this time last year. Dropped like a rock after the 40

[zeeshan2]

Mixon might be done; there's a warrant out for him

[PFF_Mike] Sources tell me a warrant has been issued in Cincinnati for RB Joe Mixon’s arrest on a count of Aggravated Menacing

[Kleiman] The warrant out for Joe Mixon alleges that Mixon pointed a gun at a woman in downtown Cincinnati, according to local reports.

https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/stat ... 9324447744

He allegedly said “you should be popped in the face. I should shoot you now. The police can’ get me”.

[Cameron Giles]

And he's not particularly productive on those receptions, averaging just 7.1 yards per reception this year on a 2.0 ADoT with 8.2 YAC, so basically all of his production is just on screen passes he breaks for a decent gain and roughly 20% of his entire receiving yards for the season came on one 55 yard reception (screen he broke). He also has an 11.9% drop rate, no other RB with 35+ receptions had higher than 8.7. Only Zach Evans and Roschon Johnson had higher drop rates among the notable RBs in this class, and they only had 19 and 21 targets respectively opposed to 52 for Tucker. He got manufactured receptions because he was the best offensive weapon on a somewhat talent deficient roster that was just getting the ball in their best players hands, but he didn't produce at a very high level on those opportunities in comparison to his peers in this class.

I think the usage is a lot more foreshadowing than the drops. Typically teams won't force RBs who don't have that element of their game into that role. Tucker has the acceleration after the catch and lateral agility to make plays as a receiver and he looks comfortable on tape in the role. I still wouldn't say he's a non-factor in those roles. You don't come into the NFL with that type of target share if you can't function in the role.

[bjd5211]

I think the poor production on the usage is as much or more of a problem than the drops, the drops add another issue to be concerned about.

[wickerkat1212]

Jayden Reed—6’0” MSU is getting a lot of love at the senior bowl. He may be a name for you all in the 2nd or 3rd round of your rookie drafts. He's on my sleeper list now. We'll see if he gets any draft capital.

Tyjae Spears is no longer a sleeper RB, the hype is already building after the senior bowl.