Jalen Hurts: What's the verdict?

[ThunderTung]

it kills me. Drafted Hurts in the 5th round of our rookie draft that year, sold him for a 2nd right before he blew up smh

If only there was a thread on this forum where people were saying positive things about how good of a fantasy QB he could be, and how if the arm ever even-slightly caught up with the legs... alas.

nah, I just wanted to cash out while I could. Still turned a 5th into a 2nd so its not like I lost. I just sold too early lol

[mild]

nah, I just wanted to cash out while I could. Still turned a 5th into a 2nd so its not like I lost. I just sold too early lol

"while I could"

I will never NEVER understand why this forum was in a hurry to give up on a 23 year old dual threat QB who:

- had just rushed for nearly 800 yards
- had thrown for 3100+ yards
- had just gotten AJ Brown
- had never gotten to stay in the same offensive system for longer than 1 year, going all the way back to college

Did you guys know - he only threw for 550 more yards than that this year? A major leap by the eye-test, for sure... but statistically, he was already this QB in 2021, he just refined it, majorly.

Could have turned that 5th into multiple high quality 1sts pal, and done a proper dynasty-shaking move. Congrats to your trade partner.

[Jigga94]

nah, I just wanted to cash out while I could. Still turned a 5th into a 2nd so its not like I lost. I just sold too early lol

"while I could"

I will never NEVER understand why this forum was in a hurry to give up on a 23 year old dual threat QB who:

- had just rushed for nearly 800 yards
- had thrown for 3100+ yards
- had just gotten AJ Brown
- had never gotten to stay in the same offensive system for longer than 1 year, going all the way back to college

Did you guys know - he only threw for 550 more yards than that this year? A major leap by the eye-test, for sure... but statistically, he was already this QB in 2021, he just refined it, majorly.

Could have turned that 5th into multiple high quality 1sts pal, and done a proper dynasty-shaking move. Congrats to your trade partner.

I think he was saying he sold before 2021...

[mild]

I think he was saying he sold before 2021...

So when his value was in complete limbo, and one of his outcomes was becoming the full time starter for a team that went to the Superbowl 3 years prior...?

Even worse

[trc]

I think he was saying he sold before 2021...

So when his value was in complete limbo, and one of his outcomes was becoming the full time starter for a team that went to the Superbowl 3 years prior...?

Even worse

Correct you should never ever sell anyone when their value is in limbo…

[YouMightDieTryin]

Hear me out -

Eagles trade #10 & 30 (along with some other future picks) to Chicago for the 1.1 taking Bryce Young.

Boom Mic drop.

/sips 8th shot of tequila.

[Jigga94]

I think he was saying he sold before 2021...

So when his value was in complete limbo, and one of his outcomes was becoming the full time starter for a team that went to the Superbowl 3 years prior...?

Even worse

I was just pointing out that you were on different timelines as the other poster... As I'm pretty sure they were hinting at selling "before he blew up" so pre 2021. But you quoted all of his 2021 stats as a reason he shouldn't have sold.

Its definitely not worse to sell Hurts for a 2nd pre blowup than it was to sell Hurts for a 2nd after 2021...

[mild]

Its definitely not worse to sell Hurts for a 2nd pre blowup than it was to sell Hurts for a 2nd after 2021...

I disagree strictly from the perspective of process. The "when" of why you sell someone should always factor in their potential outcomes. By selling for a 2nd, with a season as the locked-in starter looming - you were basically saying you saw no upside, and wanted your money back.

For a 22 year old dual-threat QB. In a Superflex league.

That is just *terrible* process.

And sure, obviously nobody is selling for a 2nd once he started putting up numbers as the QB2 overall in Fantasy from Weeks 1-12 in 2021.

Especially considering a late 2nd is what a lot of us originally paid in the draft. (raises hand)

The point remains: our condolences to the Thundertung on selling 2023's redraft QB2 overall for a 2nd in a Superflex league.

[Jigga94]

Its definitely not worse to sell Hurts for a 2nd pre blowup than it was to sell Hurts for a 2nd after 2021...

I disagree strictly from the perspective of process

No, it would definitely be worse process to sell a player for a 2nd post-breakout instead of before the breakout...

[mild]

Its definitely not worse to sell Hurts for a 2nd pre blowup than it was to sell Hurts for a 2nd after 2021...

I disagree strictly from the perspective of process

No, it would definitely be worse process to sell a player for a 2nd post-breakout instead of before the breakout...

You are technically correct! The best kind of correct.

I still think it's even worse jumping ship on someone with promise who is about to enter their first full season as a starter. It sometimes pays to see what you have...

If you abandon ship during said year, at least you got a look at them and didn't like what you saw.

The tale of this thread is that everyone saw the guy literally be the QB2 in fantasy for the first 12 weeks of that season... and still didn't like what they saw.

[Pullo Vision]

First, TT never said it was a SF league and didn't indicate if the trade was in one of his sig leagues. Also, the focus may have been to clear a roster crunch; in those situations, you sell players you like to clear a spot. I might need to do that with Okonkwo in a league, even though I like him.

More importantly, bailing on a player with all the questions Hurts had in the 2021 offseason made a ton (or "tonne") of sense. He had questions about the weapons (rookie Smith and Goedert, with a committee of meh at RB) and scheme/OC issues. He started the season poorly until the OC restructured things around his running ability.

You might disagree with the trade results, I might have angled for a different deal, maybe by adding value for a 1st. Broadly speaking, selling a guy with serious long term questions for quality dynasty value is strong on process, even if you disagree on the exact returns. I bailed on JRob using that process, wish I'd done that in more leagues for the value he was fetching at the time.

We shouldn't allow Hurts' performance for the last year and a half to make us forget the concerns that offseason over whether he'd continue to get opportunities to start.

[mild]

More importantly, bailing on a player with all the questions Hurts had in the 2021 offseason made a ton (or "tonne") of sense. He had questions about the weapons (rookie Smith and Goedert, with a committee of meh at RB) and scheme/OC issues. He started the season poorly until the OC restructured things around his running ability.

...

We shouldn't allow Hurts' performance for the last year and a half to make us forget the concerns that offseason over whether he'd continue to get opportunities to start.

We can agree to disagree. He actually started the 2021 Season RED HOT from a Fantasy perspective (QB3 overall from Weeks 1-4) but the problem was that they were losing games.

But anyone savvy should have seen the upside that was possible there if he could play that way and actually sustain it, from a passing perspective.

In 2022 he made good on that promise, and delivered.

You guys can re-litigate how afraid you were of believing in this player that offseason all you like, but my point then still remains my point now: if you're not pricing in the "happy path" outcome alongside the "unhappy path" then you will continue to run the risk of selling at a loss. In this case? A supreme loss.

We all know where my receipts lie for this player, they are all through this thread. It really wasn't -that hard- to see coming. Some people just can't leave their prior convictions and biases at the door.

(And if old mate TT is playing in a 1QB league and complaining of selling for a 2nd then who cares anyway... next you'll tell me he's still watching Baseball in 2023...)

[ericanadian]

You have guys like Dak who were late-round rookie picks or FA additions, but the ROI Hurts has returned has been massive for dynasty owners who scooped him in the late 2nd or 3rd round of rookie drafts.

it kills me. Drafted Hurts in the 5th round of our rookie draft that year, sold him for a 2nd right before he blew up smh

Ya, I moved him as well because I had Herbert ahead of him. Wishing I went the other direction with Herbert being so much higher value at the time.

[Pullo Vision]

More importantly, bailing on a player with all the questions Hurts had in the 2021 offseason made a ton (or "tonne") of sense. He had questions about the weapons (rookie Smith and Goedert, with a committee of meh at RB) and scheme/OC issues. He started the season poorly until the OC restructured things around his running ability.

...

We shouldn't allow Hurts' performance for the last year and a half to make us forget the concerns that offseason over whether he'd continue to get opportunities to start.

We can agree to disagree. He actually started the 2021 Season RED HOT from a Fantasy perspective (QB3 overall from Weeks 1-4) but the problem was that they were losing games.

But anyone savvy should have seen the upside that was possible there if he could play that way and actually sustain it, from a passing perspective.

In 2022 he made good on that promise, and delivered.

You guys can re-litigate how afraid you were of believing in this player that offseason all you like, but my point then still remains my point now: if you're not pricing in the "happy path" outcome alongside the "unhappy path" then you will continue to run the risk of selling at a loss. In this case? A supreme loss.

We all know where my receipts lie for this player, they are all through this thread. It really wasn't -that hard- to see coming. Some people just can't leave their prior convictions and biases at the door.

(And if old mate TT is playing in a 1QB league and complaining of selling for a 2nd then who cares anyway... next you'll tell me he's still watching Baseball in 2023...)

Fantasy performance didn't dictate future opportunities- whether that's starting or, in a QB's case, pass attempts. Hurts had 35, 23, 39, 48, 37 pass attempts the 1st 5 games. 7, 10, 9, 8, 9 rush attempts those games. Two games the rest of the year with 30+ pass attempts while he went of a tear of double digit rush attempts, capping out at 18. The OC clearly restructured around Hurts' skills. The fact the team was 1-3 through 4 games was more important for the Eagles than Hurts' statistical performance.

You can be enthusiastic about Hurts (then and now) but the case you're zooming in on is a weak one on which to base your argument. Not only do we not know the league/roster settings, but he specifically said he drafted him in the 5th and flipped him for a 2nd, so your point about others having drafted him late 2nd is irrelevant.

Cases like Hurts where there's a wide range of potential outcomes are always interesting. I agree that generally it's good to factor in a player's potential ceiling when considering selling, but I don't think selling towards the bottom 30% of that outcome range is "selling at a loss". You will miss out on capitalizing if he sees a value spike, but also take advantage of his current value before it crashes down.

So, as a big Hurtsfan, where would you rank him in dynasty? I've seen people put Mahomes and Allen in tier 1, with others in tier 2. Would you stick Hurts in that 1st group?

[ThunderTung]

Its definitely not worse to sell Hurts for a 2nd pre blowup than it was to sell Hurts for a 2nd after 2021...

The point remains: our condolences to the Thundertung on selling 2023's redraft QB2 overall for a 2nd in a Superflex league.

1. Not a SF league

2. I flipped a 5th round pick into a 2nd, I cashed out because it was good business. There is always a risk that a young asset you sell will vault up in value. Hindsight 20/20 yea I would not have sold. I'm glad you have perfect foresight to know exactly how every young player's career will turn out though, you must be winning all of your leagues every year with that type of power.

Go ahead and take your weird victory lap lmao, I took a flier in the 5th to get a guy with a bunch of question marks and flipped him for a 2nd which I used to trade up to 1.03 last year and grabbed G. Wilson. Poor me lol.