Way, way, waaaay too early 2023 Draft class thread

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Javonte rank impervious to influence

[-THE DUDE-]

I see no path to Richardson developing into an NFL caliber QB.

This is a really bad take to have on pretty much anything related to football, fantasy football, dynasty, or evaluating prospects.

Your opinion and that is fine, I do not see an avenue where Richardson is able to overcome his deficiencies that he has in regards to playing the position of QB in the NFL. I have been wrong, will again. I will also raise my hand and admit if I am so. This is not a legit NFL QB prospect in my eyes. He may find a path to being on the field as a gadget/situational tool, but he will never be a long-term NFL QB

As a Gators fan who’s watched every game Richardson has played in I don’t see it either. He’s a very poor passer…HUGE arm but no control of where it’s going. His best assets is his running ability but I’d call him a reluctant runner…he’s not aggressively looking to use his legs. One caveat though is he’s battled soft tissue (hamstring) issues and may have been trying not to get hurt because the plan was always to enter the draft this year.

I’m not drafting him until maybe the 4th round at best…which is likely too late and I’m ok with that

[lic217]

It's pretty reflective of real life too in my experience. I recently offered the 1.08 to a rebuilding team for Javonte and was shot down. I had the 1.06 as well but agree that's too steep for me

Right now I don’t see a huge difference between 6 and 8 but my opinion could change. Still putting rankings together.

The difference for me was twofold: 1) perception of the asset itself (1.06 will be much more coveted if I want to move it) and 2) I think most see a pretty big tier break after 1.07 (pre-draft).

To your point though, I thought even the 1.08 was pretty steep. It was just sort of the most I was willing to pay

Good points. My rankings are usually different than most. Sometimes I am right sometimes I am not. I have tier one with one guy, then tier 2 with one guy. Then 10 guys about same. Guessing some get drafted later and maybe drop out of that tier for me. The next tier has a few guys and not that different from tier 3. I see a ton of similar prospects. I will likely do a lot of trading down if I cannot get one of my top 2.

[kmbryant09]

I see no path to Richardson developing into an NFL caliber QB.

This is a really bad take to have on pretty much anything related to football, fantasy football, dynasty, or evaluating prospects.

Your opinion and that is fine, I do not see an avenue where Richardson is able to overcome his deficiencies that he has in regards to playing the position of QB in the NFL. I have been wrong, will again. I will also raise my hand and admit if I am so. This is not a legit NFL QB prospect in my eyes. He may find a path to being on the field as a gadget/situational tool, but he will never be a long-term NFL QB

I think you're missing my point a bit. We all have players that we like, don't like, are higher / lower on than consensus, etc. - and we should. It's human nature and part of why we follow the NFL and play fantasy / dynasty football.

But thinking in such black & white terms in a sport that lives on variance & unpredictability is a losing bet to make. I don't want to put words in your mouth because I have no idea how you personally valued these players, but people were 100% sure Josh Allen sucked as a passer. People saw Lamar his rookie year and thought - the rushing stats are nice but he will never develop as an NFL QB because he can't throw. Jalen Hurts was a good story last year but people knew he was never going to be a good passer. Fast forward, and Lamar has won an MVP, Allen & Hurts look to be perennial MVP candidates, and a lot of people missed out because they, as you put it, saw no path to them developing into an NFL caliber QB.

There are plenty of Tim Tebows, Pat Whites, Taysom Hills that have athleticism but never develop. But there's enough examples over the past 3 - 5 years that illustrate that it is the best time in the history of the NFL to be an athletic, raw QB. Their athleticism opens up the passing game and dictates what a defense can do SOOOOOOO MUCH, that all they have to become is a serviceable passer and they are legitimate MVP candidates.

I have no idea if Richardson will be any good in the NFL. And honestly you don't either (not trying to be rude). It's not black & white and thinking about it with such a closed mind & formed opinion will leave you blind to any future data point or information.

[Bronco Billy]

[
There are plenty of Tim Tebows, Pat Whites, Taysom Hills that have athleticism but never develop. But there's enough examples over the past 3 - 5 years that illustrate that it is the best time in the history of the NFL to be an athletic, raw QB. Their athleticism opens up the passing game and dictates what a defense can do SOOOOOOO MUCH, that all they have to become is a serviceable passer and they are legitimate MVP candidates.

I’ll challenge you on this. Name a few players with the number and level of flaws as a passer that Richardson currently has and has successfully transferred into a full time starter at QB in the NFL. If you want to know how much shear athleticism has to do with being a successful NFL QB, look at the plethora of top QBs throughout the history of the NFL - including current players - who were barely athletic enough to tie their own shoes (hyperbole on the last liitle snippet for those whose detector is in the shop).

I’ll even start you off and spot you Michael Vick.

[MFundercover]

JSN and Addison look like surefire studs to me. The way they run routes and create separation. JSN specifically smis going to be a super star.

Watching film on Quentin Johnson worries me. I wasn't expecting him to run great routes, but what scares me is that he catches with his body. For a big contested catch guy I'd want to see better hands. If he doeant end up with a good QB in a functional organization I might take him off my board entirely. I think the Chargers is his ideal landing spot.

[kmbryant09]

[
There are plenty of Tim Tebows, Pat Whites, Taysom Hills that have athleticism but never develop. But there's enough examples over the past 3 - 5 years that illustrate that it is the best time in the history of the NFL to be an athletic, raw QB. Their athleticism opens up the passing game and dictates what a defense can do SOOOOOOO MUCH, that all they have to become is a serviceable passer and they are legitimate MVP candidates.

I’ll challenge you on this. Name a few players with the number and level of flaws as a passer that Richardson currently has and has successfully transferred into a full time starter at QB in the NFL. If you want to know how much shear athleticism has to do with being a successful NFL QB, look at the plethora of top QBs throughout the history of the NFL - including current players - who were barely athletic enough to tie their own shoes (hyperbole on the last liitle snippet for those whose detector is in the shop).

I’ll even start you off and spot you Michael Vick.

Are you suggesting it's not the best time for running QB's to find success in the NFL right now? 17 of the top 22 individual QB rushing seasons have happened since 2010, half of which (11 out of the 22) have happened over the past four seasons (!!!!!!!!!!).

Offenses have literally been created around Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and to a lesser degree Josh Allen over the past 5 seasons and they have been among the best offenses in the league. All 3 QBs were regarded as raw, inconsistent throwers of the football and many people wrote them off early in their career. Did they have the same amount of flaws as Richardson or to the same degree? I have no idea, but I know that Richardson is crazy athletic and at least flashes occasionally with his arm.

And let me make my stance clear - I'm not a Richardson fan or believer (don't really have a strong opinion yet), but I'm just pushing back on any stance in which people think they know WITH CERTAINTY the outcome of a player's career before they even step foot in the NFL and are allowed to try and improve.

Again, not to put words into any specific person's mouth, but people knew WITH CERTAINTY that Josh Allen sucked as a passer, that Lamar Jackson was a running back playing the QB position, and that Jalen Hurts couldn't develop into a starting NFL QB. Why do we do this over and over and over and over again?

[kmbryant09]

OKAY—give me one name. One guy that so far is your top secret stash, the player you think nobody is paying attention to, that value pick you can get in the 2nd or 3rd round of your draft that will actually work their way onto your starting roster. Who you got?

ONE NAME I'm keeping an eye on is Cedric Tillman. Now he may not be a super sleeper, but he's a guy I think I might be able to get in the second round of my rookie draft. Though if he gets taken in the first round, no way does he stay under the radar.

Beyond that keep an eye on Jared Wayne.

Israel Abanikanda. Legit think he would've been RB #3 in last year's draft class. Sits at RB #6 in this class for me and that's a testament to this draft class. Will be aggressively targeting him in the early 2nd, just hope he doesn't get amazing draft capital (2nd round pick to an open backfield will skyrocket his ADP). Would love a 3rd round selection behind an aging starter like the Vikings or Bengals so I can continue to get him cheaply.

[killer_of_giants]

this semantics thread is pretty boring.

[MFundercover]

this semantics thread is pretty boring.

That's every dlf thread

[killer_of_giants]

this semantics thread is pretty boring.

That's every dlf thread

no, i've read funnier semantics threads on here.

[Bronco Billy]

[
There are plenty of Tim Tebows, Pat Whites, Taysom Hills that have athleticism but never develop. But there's enough examples over the past 3 - 5 years that illustrate that it is the best time in the history of the NFL to be an athletic, raw QB. Their athleticism opens up the passing game and dictates what a defense can do SOOOOOOO MUCH, that all they have to become is a serviceable passer and they are legitimate MVP candidates.

I’ll challenge you on this. Name a few players with the number and level of flaws as a passer that Richardson currently has and has successfully transferred into a full time starter at QB in the NFL. If you want to know how much shear athleticism has to do with being a successful NFL QB, look at the plethora of top QBs throughout the history of the NFL - including current players - who were barely athletic enough to tie their own shoes (hyperbole on the last liitle snippet for those whose detector is in the shop).

I’ll even start you off and spot you Michael Vick.

Are you suggesting it's not the best time for running QB's to find success in the NFL right now? 17 of the top 22 individual QB rushing seasons have happened since 2010, half of which (11 out of the 22) have happened over the past four seasons (!!!!!!!!!!).

Offenses have literally been created around Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and to a lesser degree Josh Allen over the past 5 seasons and they have been among the best offenses in the league. All 3 QBs were regarded as raw, inconsistent throwers of the football and many people wrote them off early in their career. Did they have the same amount of flaws as Richardson or to the same degree? I have no idea, but I know that Richardson is crazy athletic and at least flashes occasionally with his arm.

And let me make my stance clear - I'm not a Richardson fan or believer (don't really have a strong opinion yet), but I'm just pushing back on any stance in which people think they know WITH CERTAINTY the outcome of a player's career before they even step foot in the NFL and are allowed to try and improve.

Again, not to put words into any specific person's mouth, but people knew WITH CERTAINTY that Josh Allen sucked as a passer, that Lamar Jackson was a running back playing the QB position, and that Jalen Hurts couldn't develop into a starting NFL QB. Why do we do this over and over and over and over again?

None of the 3 you mentioned were as flawed as Richardson. Hurts and Allen were substantially more advanced than he is despite having flaws as you mentioned. Jackson might be the closest next to Vick, but still did not have the level and amalgam of issues that Richardson does. So let’s say I concede Jackson - very debatable but I will - that’s 2 names in all the starting QBs. Are you starting to get an idea of how high of a mountain that he’s going to have to climb?

[kmbryant09]

This will be my last post and then I'll move on.

I'm not arguing that Richardson is going to be a star, or even a starter. I'm simply suggesting that writing off any player with certainty is bad logic and will put you at a disadvantage - especially when that player has not even been drafted, played a snap in the NFL, or given multiple years to grow & develop. That's all I'm arguing. And now I'm done arguing it.

[murphysxm]

This will be my last post and then I'll move on.

I'm not arguing that Richardson is going to be a star, or even a starter. I'm simply suggesting that writing off any player with certainty is bad logic and will put you at a disadvantage - especially when that player has not even been drafted, played a snap in the NFL, or given multiple years to grow & develop. That's all I'm arguing. And now I'm done arguing it.

In that same vein do you also find it bad logic that Bijan is expected to be a star? None of us can see the future. All I am trying to state is the data I have in front of me is telling me Richardson succeeding is highly unlikely. It is a gamble I am choosing not to make.

[PBFalcon]

OKAY—give me one name. One guy that so far is your top secret stash, the player you think nobody is paying attention to, that value pick you can get in the 2nd or 3rd round of your draft that will actually work their way onto your starting roster. Who you got?

Still early in the piece, pending Combine, and I've got plenty to still watch but...

Israel Abanikanda has my supreme interest.

This dude looks gooood on the highlight real. I would be pumped if this guy was available in rd 2 of a rookie draft....but I doubt it.