Way, way, waaaay too early 2023 Draft class thread

[Servo]

However, if Stroud/Young fall to 1.05, I can't imagine letting that value fall any further.
Draft for value, trade for need, that is how I view it.

QBs, more often than not, will also insulate their value from YR1 to YR2, meaning that you will likely still have a good opportunity to cash out, whereas, if you draft the wrong WR (Harry, Treadwell, Kevin White, Doctson), you're looking at a pretty drastic drop in value and may not be able to sell.

So while a Josh Rosen situation can happen or where it feels like every WR hit (Wilson, Olave, London, etc.)...an early QB pick is usually safest.

[bjd5211]

Ya I don't think there are any size concerns among this WR class. None of the notables are exceptionally short like Rondale Moore or light like Devonta Smith and even they haven't been severely impacted by those size concerns to this point.

There is a discussion here, though? You must have missed it: Jordan Addison came into college weighing only 161 pounds. He's since gotten up to a (reported) 175 lbs, and I expect there to be some water-weight applied at the Combine to get him into the 180+ range. But he's clearly a slight receiver.

I definitely haven't seen it to the degree I saw it with Devonta, and watching them both play in college Addison never came off as noticably skinny as Devonta to my eye.

[Orenthal Shames]

People are still going to say this class is overrated on paper though.

At this point, we might be underrating the depth. The combine will sort everything out, but there's easily a group of 15-20 RBs who are on the radar right now, which is unheard of.

How concerned are you about the lack of size with some of the top receivers (Addison, Downs, Flowers)?

Not concerned at all. I usually fade any concern about size at the WR position. Addison and Downs in particular have shown high level ability as route runners and separators, which is the safest trait to translate to the next level.

This is what I needed to hear. I remembered you being high on Smith and Hollywood when similar concerns were raised, that's I wanted to ask.

[Hankybro21]

Assuming he gets solid draft capital, top 15 range or so, how early is too early for Richardson? I've got 1.02-1.04 then 11, 12, and 15 (Team 2). I feel like top 4 is probably too high so a trade back to 6-7 range would be ideal. Anyone chancing him in the top 4?

[MacDaddy123]

Assuming he gets solid draft capital, top 15 range or so, how early is too early for Richardson? I've got 1.02-1.04 then 11, 12, and 15 (Team 2). I feel like top 4 is probably too high so a trade back to 6-7 range would be ideal. Anyone chancing him in the top 4?

I highly doubt he goes top 4, but if he gets top 15 draft capital, and a good landing spot it is possible.
I still think that 5-7 is as high as he will go, but so much can change during the combine and the draft.

I think he is a huge risk, but no doubt if he does hit, I think he has the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft.
However, I also think he has the biggest bust potential of the top 4 QB's.

[CGW]

Assuming he gets solid draft capital, top 15 range or so, how early is too early for Richardson? I've got 1.02-1.04 then 11, 12, and 15 (Team 2). I feel like top 4 is probably too high so a trade back to 6-7 range would be ideal. Anyone chancing him in the top 4?

Top 4 is a stretch. Not taking him over Bijan, Young, Stroud, Gibbs, JSN, Addison, or Levis at this point. 8th or so is where the risk gets more attractive. Maybe you could use the 11+ to move up for him.

[wickerkat1212]

Assuming he gets solid draft capital, top 15 range or so, how early is too early for Richardson? I've got 1.02-1.04 then 11, 12, and 15 (Team 2). I feel like top 4 is probably too high so a trade back to 6-7 range would be ideal. Anyone chancing him in the top 4?

Top 4 is a stretch. Not taking him over Bijan, Young, Stroud, Gibbs, JSN, Addison, or Levis at this point. 8th or so is where the risk gets more attractive. Maybe you could use the 11+ to move up for him.

This.

[murphysxm]

I think he is a huge risk, but no doubt if he does hit, I think he has the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft.
However, I also think he has the biggest bust potential of the top 4 QB's.

The first statement is probably accurate, the second is underselling his floor. I think his bust potential is the highest of any QB I have ever watched film of.

[halfbaked88]

Assuming he gets solid draft capital, top 15 range or so, how early is too early for Richardson? I've got 1.02-1.04 then 11, 12, and 15 (Team 2). I feel like top 4 is probably too high so a trade back to 6-7 range would be ideal. Anyone chancing him in the top 4?

Top 15 is a broader range for QBs than it looks on paper. Even 9th or 10th overall likely wouldn't be enough for me to make Richardson a must draft prospect for me.

If Richardson gets in the Top6 then that's impossible to ignore.

[kmbryant09]

Alright, I've finally figured out my perfect comp for Bijan Robinson. Might be a little unconventional, but it's a perfect match.

He's a chicken. Being chased by people. Hope you guys get a good laugh at this, I did too. But there's a part of me that buys into it

He's not fast enough to run away from you, but he's just quicker, lower to the ground, and is two steps ahead of everyone else movement wise that he's just darn near impossible to tackle / hit straight on - much like a chicken is so frustratingly difficult to catch.

Chicken comps aside, I've never seen any college RB of any size consistently make so many players miss. He makes the 3rd guy miss after he somehow made the 2nd guy miss after somehow avoiding the 1st guy - it's just incredible how many times he is able to stack his elusiveness on top of each other. The fact that he does it at 220 lbs is just absurd.

Anyways, back to Justin Fields & the Chicago Bears' off-season

[Pullo Vision]

In his first mock (no trades), Daniel Jeremiah had Dalton Kincaid go as the first TE, to LAC @ 21. Michael Mayer went 24th to Jax. Other interesting moves- Anthony Richardson to Baltimore, Bijan to Buffalo, JSN the first WR to Philly @31.

[nathanq42]

In his first mock (no trades), Daniel Jeremiah had Dalton Kincaid go as the first TE, to LAC @ 21. Michael Mayer went 24th to Jax. Other interesting moves- Anthony Richardson to Baltimore, Bijan to Buffalo, JSN the first WR to Philly @31.

First WR at 31?! Throw that mock in the garbage...

[MacDaddy123]

In his first mock (no trades), Daniel Jeremiah had Dalton Kincaid go as the first TE, to LAC @ 21. Michael Mayer went 24th to Jax. Other interesting moves- Anthony Richardson to Baltimore, Bijan to Buffalo, JSN the first WR to Philly @31.

First WR at 31?! Throw that mock in the garbage...

While I do agree that several WR's will go in the 1st round in 2023, I do not think the 23 WR class is as strong as the 2022 WR class was.

[mild]

While I do agree that several WR's will go in the 1st round in 2023, I do not think the 23 WR class is as strong as the 2022 WR class was.

... which is why the few WR's with elite profiles will go higher than 31...

[MacDaddy123]

While I do agree that several WR's will go in the 1st round in 2023, I do not think the 23 WR class is as strong as the 2022 WR class was.

... which is why the few WR's with elite profiles will go higher than 31...

Agree 100%.

I think at least 3, if not 4 WR's go in round 1.
Not so much due to the strength of this WR class as much as the NFL need for the position, like QB.
Especially now that WR's are getting $25+ mil/year 2nd contracts, more teams will want that 5th year option on the rookie deal.