Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

[Jigga94]

Can anyone please name a TE that translated instantly into the NFL?

There was a rookie last year that was pretty good

[dondickenson]

As someone in an SF TE Prem league with Kelce, Hock, Engram, Muth, and who traded the 2021 1.02(Pitts) for the 2021 1.04(Chase), 2.04(Muth), and 2022 2nd(Dotson) I love this thread.

[wickerkat1212]

I got him at 1.05 and 1.06 in two different leagues. I got one share of Chase—1.05 in a Superflex. I wouldn't trade him now for a 1.05/1.06. I would do it for the 1.01 and Bijan.

DLF has his value at 571, the #30 player in all of dynasty. And the #2 TE behind Andrews. Kelce (at his age) is the TE3.

He's not a bust. ATL is a mess. Fingers crossed they draft Stroud. I don't think Ridder is the answer.

[Anteaters]

It was an awful pick for real football, but a 1000 yard season as a 21 y/o rookie TE, and people think he's a bust?

He's the OP who said we'd "waste our premium pick" on him. I don't think anyone else (or more rational) is saying he's a bust yet.

He's just looking for a W after getting dunked on for literally Pitts entire rookie season, it's understandable.

That's my take to the letter. Pitts was undeniably a waste of a premium pick, but he is far from an overall bust as a fantasy football player. Barring something very strange happening, Pitts should/can be a T10TE year after year for the next decade. Not worth 1.03 but worth 1.12 on a team with no other needs.

[mild]

That's my take to the letter. Pitts was undeniably a waste of a premium pick, but he is far from an overall bust as a fantasy football player. Barring something very strange happening, Pitts should/can be a T10TE year after year for the next decade. Not worth 1.03 but worth 1.12 on a team with no other needs.

Lol. Cool take bro.

You don't value Pitts, and that's fine. Saying he's going to be a Top 10 TE for the next decade doesn't really take any balls... the position is so weak, he can do that by rolling out of bed in the morning. He's already considered (at least) the TE3 in Dynasty by most ranking sites, so yeah, no need to belabour it: you think he's overvalued, despite having an 1000 yard season at age 21, as a rookie TE.

He was drafted at 1.05 in my Super Flex league. I think that's likely the cheapest he will ever go for in the next few years.

Just for fun, let's say the following TE's are all likely to be "T10TE year after year for the next decade":

- Dallas Goedart
- TJ Hockensen
- Pat Friermuth

Do you think paying the 1.12 could net any of them, even Friermuth?
Do you think paying the 1.05 could net any of them, perhaps Friermuth?

Now pretend that all of those TE's suddenly bumped their athletic profile up into this kind of range, had an 1000 yard Rookie Season, and were used all over the formation more akin to a mismatch receiver than a traditional inline TE.

For what it's worth, none of those TE's listed have even had a 900 yard season yet, let alone an 1000 yard one. As a rookie. A 21 year old rookie.

Open your eyes, Anteaters. Or don't, we won't weep for you.

[remedy29]

Lol - when is it safe to say Pitts is a bust?

In regards to the 2021 draft, who are the obvious picks that should have been drafted over Pitts in Rookie Drafts (assume 1 QB leagues)?

2021 Rookie Rankings (more or less): Najee, Chase, Pitts, ETN, Javonte Williams, Trey Sermon?!?, DeVonta Smith, Waddle, Bateman, M. Carter, ME Moore, R. Moore, Terrance Marshall, Toney.

KTC Jan 2023 value in order: Chase, Waddle, ETN, Pitts, D. Smith, Javonte, Najee, Bateman, ME Moore, Toney, R, Moore, M, Carter

Sure a case can be made for DeVonta Smith, Javonte & Najee, they are all closely valued per KTC. But it dries up real fast after that.

But if you think Pitts is a bust, then you should trade him for a Cole Kmet type and pat yourself on the back for being smarter than the rest. The only problem you will have is if you wanted to trade Cole Kmet after that, his value will likely be significantly lower than Pitts.

[CGW]

I dont think he's a unicorn like some had thought, but I'm still in the camp that thinks Pitts will have a very successful fantasy career long term. He's well ahead of the typical TE production curve going into his 3rd year and likely to get a QB upgrade in the next year or two.

Are we still saying hes worth significantly more than Hockenson despite the massive change in situations over the past few months?

[Anteaters]

I dont think he's a unicorn like some had thought, but I'm still in the camp that thinks Pitts will have a very successful fantasy career long term. He's well ahead of the typical TE production curve going into his 3rd year and likely to get a QB upgrade in the next year or two.

Are we still saying hes worth significantly more than Hockenson despite the massive change in situations over the past few months?

"Worth more" is a hard thing for me to address. I think Pitts will probably have a higher trade value simply because so many fantasy managers are stuck on the unicorn storyline.

What I'm comfortable saying is I think there will be no meaningful difference between their stats over the next 3-4 seasons. Or that if there is a difference, it's just as likely to be Hockenson who outscores Pitts as the other way around.

[Patsfan86]

In my 1 QB draft Pitts went 1.03 BEFORE Jamar Chase. My league values RBs way too highly imo so Najee and Etienne went 1.01, 1.02. I believe Pitts was the consensus 1.03 tho for the most part in 1 QB so I’m not sure it was a reach there. Hindsight is 2020 and I hate doing it but i think it’s safe to say that if we were to redraft again Pitts would probably go in the 1.06 range definitely after waddle and maybe after Devonta Smith for some.

Personally I still think he is a mega talented player, we saw enough of it last year. He is just stuck in an awful offense and had maybe the worst QB in the league passing him the ball this year. Arthur Smith also still thinks it’s 1967 and that the ground and pound works in a full season.

I’d say the question to if you wasted a premium pick on Pitts is still a no BUT it’ll be fun to see how the TE market changes this offseason because of him. People will be scared to invest in TEs now. Will Mayer fall in fantasy drafts? Will consistent players like Freiermuth gain value because at least they don’t kill teams? Will people go after guys like Dulcich and Chiggy more because they see a value play there and don’t want to spend a lot on TE? We will see.

[jenkins.math]

AJ Brown averaged 44 yards per game with Mariota as his QB and when they made the switch to Tannehill, AJB averaged 77 yards per game the rest of that season.

We all believe AJB is a stud and even he struggled with Mariota throwing him the ball. Pitts is a victim of his circumstances I’m afraid.

[TimeWillTell]

In my 1 QB draft Pitts went 1.03 BEFORE Jamar Chase. My league values RBs way too highly imo so Najee and Etienne went 1.01, 1.02. I believe Pitts was the consensus 1.03 tho for the most part in 1 QB so I’m not sure it was a reach there. Hindsight is 2020 and I hate doing it but i think it’s safe to say that if we were to redraft again Pitts would probably go in the 1.06 range definitely after waddle and maybe after Devonta Smith for some.

Personally I still think he is a mega talented player, we saw enough of it last year. He is just stuck in an awful offense and had maybe the worst QB in the league passing him the ball this year. Arthur Smith also still thinks it’s 1967 and that the ground and pound works in a full season.

I’d say the question to if you wasted a premium pick on Pitts is still a no BUT it’ll be fun to see how the TE market changes this offseason because of him. People will be scared to invest in TEs now. Will Mayer fall in fantasy drafts? Will consistent players like Freiermuth gain value because at least they don’t kill teams? Will people go after guys like Dulcich and Chiggy more because they see a value play there and don’t want to spend a lot on TE? We will see.

He went 1.01 in my 1QB league. Insane. Guy def regrets it now and has tried to unload him for 3 1sts worth of value to everyone in the league. No takers.

[Anteaters]

He went 1.01 in my 1QB league. Insane. Guy def regrets it now and has tried to unload him for 3 1sts worth of value to everyone in the league.

No takers

[tstafford]

TLDR (obviously). IMHO - The issue is positional scarcity. If you are in a 1QB, TEP league (as I am) and you don't have a TE of merit (and most folks don't) it's very tempting to chase a guy like Pitts. TE is by far the hardest position to fill in fantasy. The allure of having a guy, like Kelce, who can put up reliable numbers is really strong. Not saying this justifies anything, but it starts to explain it.

FWIW - Someone asked "when is it okay to call Pitts a bust". I think that's the key question at this point. If I could move on for him for 90 cents on the dollar (and I think in most leagues you can), I would. He still carries a lot of value. And maybe he still breaks out. But if he doesn't do something next season, it's basically over for his fantasy value.

[bjd5211]

And maybe he still breaks out. But if he doesn't do something next season, it's basically over for his fantasy value.

He already did breakout, and he is in no danger of "it basically being over for his fantasy value". Lmfao

[JoeJoe88]

And maybe he still breaks out. But if he doesn't do something next season, it's basically over for his fantasy value.

He already did breakout, and he is in no danger of "it basically being over for his fantasy value". Lmfao

20 year-old 1000 yard rookie TE’s happen every year, didn’t you know?