That's what I PAID!!!

[JTLoh]

So I'm in this league right here:

QUARANTINE FOOTBALL LEAGUE (https://www76.myfantasyleague.com/2022/home/37216#0)

One of the owners hits me up on GroupMe looking for some RB help. I'm pretty happy with how my team is looking at this point. My RBs are above average and I'm pretty deep. I just need my WR's to start performing. So while I'm not really pressed about needing to make a move, I'm always open for opportunities. I tell him, I could definitely part with a RB or two, I'd want draft picks or WR or WR-upgrade. He says alright I'll look and send you something over. An hour later I get an offer. He wants me to send him Rachaad White and Brian Robinson for two 2023 2nds. Well, at first glance its not a horrible offer. At least he didn't want Walker, Pierce, or Stevenson for that. So I tell him, I'm going to need more, I'd definitely need at least one 2023 1st in the deal, if in included both these RBs. Or shoot me a tier 1 WR and I'll send you back a tier 2 WR along with one of those RBs.

He's like Nah, those guys are really only worth 2nds right now.

Well, here is the thing. I DRAFTED both of these guys in the 2022 rookie draft. I picked Rachaad White with 2.1 and I picked BRob with 2.8. Everywhere I've looked White was pretty consistently taken mid 2nd and BRob, late 2nd to early 3rd. So now, given the state of things for both players 10 weeks into the season, no matter how you feel about their futures, their value HAS TO HAVE INCREASED. It's not like they are Skyy Moore, James Cook or Isaiah Spiller. Who yeah, you could be persuaded to sell for what you paid.

After thinking about this, I looked back at a bunch of other offers/trades/deals that I didn't make and I found a common theme. Owners out there are trying to buy risers for 2022 draft prices. Look guys, I AM NOT SELLING PROMISING PROSPECTS FOR WHAT I PAID! You missed that window. The ship has sailed. I assumed the risk and now there needs to be some reward. I get it, you want these guys now that you see they've had at least a little success in the NFL. But how about before you make the offer, take a look at where they got drafted. Save us all some time. Nobody is SELLING for what they PAID!

[YouMightDieTryin]

And then i found five dolla.

[dustyroads]

I get your point. But also, I wouldn't even pay a future 2nd for Rachaad White. He hasn't had more than 8 carries till this week, has been below average with those carries, and has had some opportunities to show out with Fournette underperforming and getting banged up. That's just me though, and I can see you not wanting to undersell him after where you literally just drafted him.

Advice from experience being in similar circumstances as this before and feeling just like you're feeling now. Just say something similar to "no thanks, don't think this is gonna work out, good luck rest of season" and walk away. It sounds like you weren't looking for a trade anyway. So all that's really left is a meaningless debate/fight with a league member where neither of you will likely change each others minds, and there's nothing to gain from any of that. And again, from an outside perspective, I don't think it was even that insulting of an offer. I've gotten a lot worse this season alone. Just a league mate kicking the tires. And if you want to make future trades in the league, best not to blast someone for it.

[JTLoh]

Advice from experience being in similar circumstances as this before and feeling just like you're feeling now. Just say something similar to "no thanks, don't think this is gonna work out, good luck rest of season" and walk away. It sounds like you weren't looking for a trade anyway. So all that's really left is a meaningless debate/fight with a league member where neither of you will likely change each others minds, and there's nothing to gain from any of that. And again, from an outside perspective, I don't think it was even that insulting of an offer. I've gotten a lot worse this season alone. Just a league mate kicking the tires. And if you want to make future trades in the league, best not to blast someone for it.

Absolutely, not gonna vent to them as I did here.
Everything you say is true, and why I'm venting here, not to him.

[Bronco Billy]

It’s not unreasonable to argue that the offered 2023 2nds have more value than the 2022 2nds that you paid for White and Robinson, given the potential quality in this draft class.

Personally there’s not a chance in Hades that I’d swap a 2023 1st for both those guys, much less either one and something additional from my roster. They’re both limited RBs. The problem could be your valuation of those guys - a very common issue with many FF owners including myself at times.

[Cherokee]

Gimme 2 random 2023 2nds.
You should definitely had taken 1 2nd for Robinson at least.

[moishetreats]

If you're venting, I get it. This is a great place to do it! And feel free to stop reading here if this is just a vent.

--------

If there is some seriousness to it, then feel free to keep reading.

Emotionally, I get what you're saying. But, practically, what you paid is irrelevant. In my team below (2QB, 2TE), I drafted Dulcich with pick 4.10 and Geno with pick 5.01. By the argument of "I paid X so I need more", I should accept any 3rd-round pick for each. It's not *just* about making a profit. In that same league, someone else drafted Skyy Moore at 1.09. Saying "but I paid a late first" wouldn't convince anyone to give you a late 1st for him now.

In other words, a player's value has NO connection to what you paid to get him. Absolutely none. His value is only connected to what he is worth now. I don't care if you got R. White with pick 1.01 or pick 5.10. He's only worth a late first at best, most likely a 2nd. Similarly to B Robinson.

As a broader concept, I think this is one of the great errors we make in trading. "I got player X as a free agent, so I'm making a profit selling him for a 2nd!" If he's worth a 2nd, great. But we'll sometime sell low simply because we got him cheaply. Or the reverse: "I paid a 2nd for someone, so I need to at least get my 2nd back." If he's only worth a late-3rd now, and someone is offering you a high 3rd, you gotta take it. In both cases, what you paid is only relevant emotionally -- "I made a profit! I can't take a loss!" But a player's value *to another owner* is completely independent of what you paid to get him.

[JTLoh]

Gimme 2 random 2023 2nds.

Why?

You should definitely had taken 1 2nd for Robinson at least.

Again, why? I'd love some follow up?
Like the poster before you the only reason I can think is if you think the 2023 class is way deeper than the 2022.

But even so, the hit/miss rates on second rounders aren't going to be that much different between 2022/2023 IMHO.
And hitting on a second rounder is like what, 50-60%

I'd say BRob/White have already increased above a 50-60% hit rate given where they are now. Maybe they don't pan out long term, maybe they get replaced in 2023 but I'd say they are right now BOTH better odds than a random 2023 2nd round pick. That(Those) 2023 2nds could be Skyy Moore, James White, Isaiah Spiller, Alec Pierce, Zamir White, Jalen Tolbert, Tyron Davis-Price. Or even a similar player to what I have (BRob/J.White),that I'll have to wait and see on.

I know the potential in White/BRob is greater than a random 2023 2nd, right now.

[JTLoh]

But, practically, what you paid is irrelevant. In my team below (2QB, 2TE), I drafted Dulcich with pick 4.10 and Geno with pick 5.01. By the argument of "I paid X so I need more", I should accept any 3rd-round pick for each. It's not *just* about making a profit. In that same league, someone else drafted Skyy Moore at 1.09. Saying "but I paid a late first" wouldn't convince anyone to give you a late 1st for him now.

Totally agree, I'm not JUST saying I should get more than a 2nd because that's what I paid.
I'm taking into consideration where they are now, 10 weeks into the season. League winners, no, of course not.
Are they in a spot/situation where their value should be increased from what it was pre season, absolutely.

I'd 100% agree, that if I was selling Sky or J.Cook right now, I'd take less than I paid.

[timeEd32]

Where you drafted them shouldn't really be relevant. What their ADP was is slightly more relevant.

I can certainly understand not wanting to take a 2 for White, even if it projects early. But I also understand no one wanting to pay an actual 1 for him.

Robinson on the other hand was a late 2 / early 3 in a class that got pretty weak fast and, aside from the incredible story of what happened to him and his recovery, has shown very little. He gets no passing work and he's not an efficient runner (and wasn't in college either). I'd consider getting a '23 2 for him a profit and happily do it, particularly on a team with strength at RB.

[murphysxm]

Where you drafted a player stops mattering the second after you drafted him. Brob and White are late 2/early 3's in the 2023 draft class and that is all that really matters today

[Bronco Billy]

But, practically, what you paid is irrelevant. In my team below (2QB, 2TE), I drafted Dulcich with pick 4.10 and Geno with pick 5.01. By the argument of "I paid X so I need more", I should accept any 3rd-round pick for each. It's not *just* about making a profit. In that same league, someone else drafted Skyy Moore at 1.09. Saying "but I paid a late first" wouldn't convince anyone to give you a late 1st for him now.

Totally agree, I'm not JUST saying I should get more than a 2nd because that's what I paid.
I'm taking into consideration where they are now, 10 weeks into the season. League winners, no, of course not.
Are they in a spot/situation where their value should be increased from what it was pre season, absolutely.

I'd 100% agree, that if I was selling Sky or J.Cook right now, I'd take less than I paid.

Honestly, neither guy is startable in our league. They are flex/bye week fillers at best.

[Anteaters]

It was a fair offer.
It's reasonable for you to hold.

No harm, no foul. Just no agreement on value. Don't get riled up over it.

[JTLoh]

Honestly, neither guy is startable in our league. They are flex/bye week fillers at best.

Of course not. They are bench guys with potential.
I'm attempting to make the argument these two specific guys have greater value now than a random 2023 2nd.

If you look at (and believe) this site:
https://thedynastyguru.com/2018/03/06/o ... picks-hit/

its like:
1st round Hit Rate: 45.8%
2nd round Hit Rate: 30.6%
3rd or late Hit Rate: 9.3%

If I had to put a value on R.White/B.Rob becoming a hit (from the above site hit defined as: one season with a top 24 RB finish, top 30 WR finish, top 12 QB/TE finish)

I'm definitely giving them both above 30%. I'd say like 55% for White and 45% for BRob.
I get everyone saying R.White/BRob aren't starter caliber, etc. But man, what do you need to see before you think they are better than a 30% chance at a hit?

I think the issue is, people OVER value draft picks. I don't think they realize/factor that 2nd round rookie picks are hitting at a measly 30%. Heck, I know I overvalue draft picks all the time. Because I LOVE making rookie picks in April.

[Jigga94]

No way I'd give up Rachaad for a random 2nd. He's starting to get more opportunities and just broke 100 yards this past week. Valuing him as a late 2nd or 3rd in next years class is wild to me. He's what you pray that pick becomes.

BRob on the other hand, I'm not a fan of and would take the 2nd to re roll even if I drafted him in the same spot as the new pick would be.