Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

[FantasyFreak]

I think Kyle Pitts value may have peaked this off season. Not saying he can't have a good career, but he was the first non QB taken in many SF/TE premium drafts, including one I did in August. He had a massive value spike, where you could have netted a boatload off your original early first value, and I'm not so certain he'll ever get back to that value. Atlanta has enough wins to make the QB thing concerning already for next year, and the draft class at QB could end up like that great class we had with T Law at the top, where everybody was convinced it was the next '84 class (hyperbole).

There's still a chance in a few years, Pitts has the value of that top guy, but it's a lot more doubtful at this point. Again, love the talent, but he's a middling TE, bordering on droppable for re-draft purposes, without a clear indication things will be a whole lot different next year.

[Cameron Giles]

As usual, there is always a buy-low window before the real TE breakout.

[murphysxm]

Until Atlanta decides the passing game is needed in the NFL, his value is simply capped. Gotta have the targets to shine

[FantasyFreak]

As usual, there is always a buy-low window before the real TE breakout.

Yeah, but the likelihood is, the sell high window is closed. The top asset in TE premium is a tough thing to come by, and I think it's likely he's never that again. I have my doubts people will sell low, as they are ingrained in that mindset of that insane value he had this off season.

[wickerkat1212]

Yep, I'm in for the long haul now. I hope ATL drafts a stud and this turns around. His red zone use is especially troubling.

[dustyroads]

It's still only his second year, and I don't think anyone would say he's doing anything poorly to bring down his own value. Atlanta is just doing the same as the Giants, Jets, Carolina.... running the ball first and finding enough success with it to not attempt to drastically change anything else. Sure I doubt he regains his value in a year; but with Waller bottoming out, Kittle still missing significant playing time every season, and the lack of other TEs really blowing up, I don't think anyone can say he'll never get back there again. Also, as usual, the value thing is very subjective. Owners had him overvalued to a point where it became a mirage as you can't claim a player has that kind of heightened value if no one is actually paying those prices to get him. I would not be at all shocked for ATL to draft a good QB, change their scheme, and have Pitts up there neck and neck with Andrews (and the ageless wonder Kelce) again for most valuable tight ends in the league.

And as I remember, the real argument two years ago was people saying they'd be able to buy him cheaper than where he was being drafted. Outside of one-off Taco leagues, I still don't see him getting moved for less that a future 1st round pick by any of his owners. People could claim that's his value after another down season, but again, if he's not being sold for that we can't really claim that's his "value".

[bjd5211]

Well he should hopefully get a lot of opportunities to practice and improve his blocking this year.

[dustyroads]

Well he should hopefully get a lot of opportunities to practice and improve his blocking this year.

Well there's a great optimistic way to look at it!! For real though, we could also point out he's not being vocal about his usage or otherwise distracting the team. Actually been questioned on it by media and says the complete opposite "it's not all about me. we are winning and doing well." And doesn't seem to be taking any plays off either. When he's out there, even just as a blocker, he's putting in the effort. So a check mark for being consummate pro

[jenkins.math]

This thread is another reminder that there is a lot of redraft mindset in dynasty. The prevailing thought of “talent over situation” because situation can change quickly is always preached on here. Yet we have a player that seemingly nobody questions the talent but is in a situation where his team isn’t throwing the ball. I mean literally his team doesn’t throw the ball at all. Hard to say that’s his fault when even down multiple scores they only throw the ball 15 times. So are you down in the talent of the player? If not, then why would you lower his value a ton since it’s more the passing game as a whole. Are we dropping Drake London a lot as well or have we just decided to drop Pitts?

I also think these “sell high” windows are great in theory but I very rarely see a monster deal in any league. Sure Pitts has lost value, but you only have a sell high window if someone in your league can actually afford to pay it. The irony is if you check the advice forum the advice is usually slanted towards whoever the best player is. If someone really turned down SF/TE premium top non QB trades for him that’s one thing. But I bet there are so few of those that got offered across all leagues that the point is irrelevant.

I actually think more buying windows are created in season than selling windows because people panic. If you believe in Pitts this is probably the first time his owner would even entertain moving him. Most though are just going to hold, but it’s certainly worth checking. I bought in one league and I had tried to get him for over a year and never once even got a counter before last week’s deal.

[Jrblaha]

This thread is another reminder that there is a lot of redraft mindset in dynasty. The prevailing thought of “talent over situation” because situation can change quickly is always preached on here. Yet we have a player that seemingly nobody questions the talent but is in a situation where his team isn’t throwing the ball. I mean literally his team doesn’t throw the ball at all. Hard to say that’s his fault when even down multiple scores they only throw the ball 15 times. So are you down in the talent of the player? If not, then why would you lower his value a ton since it’s more the passing game as a whole. Are we dropping Drake London a lot as well or have we just decided to drop Pitts?

I also think these “sell high” windows are great in theory but I very rarely see a monster deal in any league. Sure Pitts has lost value, but you only have a sell high window if someone in your league can actually afford to pay it. The irony is if you check the advice forum the advice is usually slanted towards whoever the best player is. If someone really turned down SF/TE premium top non QB trades for him that’s one thing. But I bet there are so few of those that got offered across all leagues that the point is irrelevant.

I actually think more buying windows are created in season than selling windows because people panic. If you believe in Pitts this is probably the first time his owner would even entertain moving him. Most though are just going to hold, but it’s certainly worth checking. I bought in one league and I had tried to get him for over a year and never once even got a counter before last week’s deal.

Curious what you bought for?

[jenkins.math]

Curious what you bought for?

14 team non-PPR league

Gave Swift
Got Pitts + early 23 2nd

[mild]

Can't wait for the "Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Drake London" thread.

Should be a good time.

[Anteaters]

Did I miss hundreds of posts that insisted London would set all-time WR records and become the #1 WR (using Muhammad Ali voice) of ALL TIME!!!!!!!

[mild]

Did I miss hundreds of posts that insisted London would set all-time WR records and become the #1 WR (using Muhammad Ali voice) of ALL TIME!!!!!!!

Nah, but I think you might have missed the 2021 season when Kyle Pitts had 1000 yards as a 21 year old rookie TE.

Keep looking past the point I'm making if you like, though - that's fully fine, and about par for the course for you.

I'd gladly buy Pitts or Drake right now. They're going to be fine.

[TimeWillTell]

What are we buying pitts for now? Offer of me getting pitts for a 2023 1st in the 1.03-1.05 range is in my inbox. I would still have a pick guaranteed to either be 1.01 or 1.02.