Breece Hall thread (1.01)

[FantasyFreak]

Would you guys pay a 2023 1st likely in the 1.03 to 1.05 range to stash him (thinking it'll be 1.05 but too early to tell)? Looked really good but his knee is reported to be ACL and meniscus which means likely longer recovery

Meniscus was minor, isn't supposed to affect recovery time. That's the report, though you never truly know. In non SF I probably would, in SF I'd probably hold the pick.

[Jigga94]

Would you guys pay a 2023 1st likely in the 1.03 to 1.05 range to stash him (thinking it'll be 1.05 but too early to tell)? Looked really good but his knee is reported to be ACL and meniscus which means likely longer recovery

Meniscus was minor, isn't supposed to affect recovery time. That's the report, though you never truly know. In non SF I probably would, in SF I'd probably hold the pick.

Agreed. Was thinking of the players I'd swap on a contender for Breece and it landed somewhere around a mid 1st for SF. I don't expect him 100% next year and by then, a few of those rookie RB probably pass him by.

Another thing that I've at least noticed is since these injuries take a while, their perceived value is still lower when they come back because now they're "injury prone". That was what I was told about Barkley just this past week

[FantasyFreak]

Would you guys pay a 2023 1st likely in the 1.03 to 1.05 range to stash him (thinking it'll be 1.05 but too early to tell)? Looked really good but his knee is reported to be ACL and meniscus which means likely longer recovery

Meniscus was minor, isn't supposed to affect recovery time. That's the report, though you never truly know. In non SF I probably would, in SF I'd probably hold the pick.

Agreed. Was thinking of the players I'd swap on a contender for Breece and it landed somewhere around a mid 1st for SF. I don't expect him 100% next year and by then, a few of those rookie RB probably pass him by.

Another thing that I've at least noticed is since these injuries take a while, their perceived value is still lower when they come back because now they're "injury prone". That was what I was told about Barkley just this past week

First year back it's hard to trust them, Dr. Morse from Fantasy Doctors just stated this in his most recent video. I agree. Each player is different, though. He should be good to go week 1 according to Dr. Morse, but performance may not be like his pre-tear performance. At least the injury isn't as significant as say JK, or Javonte. JK having a 2nd surgery for arthrofibrosis is concerning.

Breece showing elite upside I think would make me feel better about moving a pick for him, but it's still a calculated risk.

[bjd5211]

No. You can likely draft a RB prospect just as good as him without a knee injury that could diminish his 2023 (if not entire career), or trade that pick during the draft at the peak of Rookie Fever. Just hold it.

[FantasyFreak]

No. You can likely draft a RB prospect just as good as him without a knee injury that could diminish his 2023 (if not entire career), or trade that pick during the draft at the peak of Rookie Fever. Just hold it.

If it's 1 QB, you won't get a prospect as good as Breece if it's 1.05, SF you might. I do agree that the pick value hasn't peaked yet, though. The fever is undefeated.

[Anteaters]

No. You can likely draft a RB prospect just as good as him without a knee injury that could diminish his 2023 (if not entire career), or trade that pick during the draft at the peak of Rookie Fever. Just hold it.

++

Not to mention that 1.3-1.6 pick could be Waddle/Lamb/JJ/Olave - all WRs drafted in that range. I'm not sure I would give up any of them to acquire damaged-goods Breece. Even in 1QB, 1.5 is a pretty valuable pick. I remember a guy named Pitts going in that range and people were then able to ransom him off for three 1sts+starter at the time.

Etienne and Javonte were going in the 1.3-1.7 range two drafts ago in 1QB.

I'm holding that pick, especially in a supposed loaded '23 draft. I don't see the value of holding an injured guy until 2024 to see if he comes back healthy and ready to rock. ACLs don't have a 100% recovery rate back to full potential.

[Jigga94]

No. You can likely draft a RB prospect just as good as him without a knee injury that could diminish his 2023 (if not entire career), or trade that pick during the draft at the peak of Rookie Fever. Just hold it.

++

Not to mention that 1.3-1.6 pick could be Waddle/Lamb/JJ/Olave

Could also be Harry, Ruggs, Jeudy, Reagor...

[Mjvb5]

Would you guys pay a 2023 1st likely in the 1.03 to 1.05 range to stash him (thinking it'll be 1.05 but too early to tell)? Looked really good but his knee is reported to be ACL and meniscus which means likely longer recovery

I would, think he's the 2nd best rb prospect in next year's class even with the injury

[FantasyFreak]

Would you guys pay a 2023 1st likely in the 1.03 to 1.05 range to stash him (thinking it'll be 1.05 but too early to tell)? Looked really good but his knee is reported to be ACL and meniscus which means likely longer recovery

I would, think he's the 2nd best rb prospect in next year's class even with the injury

For sure. The combination of size/athleticism, college production, early declare, and draft capital makes him that. Plus he was showing elite NFL capabilities as a rookie. The injury risk is there, we don't know how it will go, but if he has a successful surgery and rehab, then he's still going to be an elite young NFL back. It's all about your risk tolerance. Rookie picks have risk too, and the fact Breece has shown it in the NFL on top of his prospect profile pre NFL does mitigate the risk on his side, a bit more. It's not like you're taking a complete unknown at the NFL level.

There is risk on both sides of the equation, here.

[TimeWillTell]

Definitely a risk. For my situation I'm thinking I'll take it (offer on the table as a 3 way trade which I hate). My league dynamic is weird and all 2023 1sts are concentrated with 3 teams (me and 2 heavy rebuilders) and given my team I don't think I would get a veteran better than my current players for that pick.

[FantasyFreak]

Definitely a risk. For my situation I'm thinking I'll take it (offer on the table as a 3 way trade which I hate). My league dynamic is weird and all 2023 1sts are concentrated with 3 teams (me and 2 heavy rebuilders) and given my team I don't think I would get a veteran better than my current players for that pick.

Time to move Jacobs ahead of Swift and Dobbins in that sig. Give the man some respect!

I would think that if you have some other first next season, I'd make the move for Breece, with the added context you've provided.

[Prison_Mike]

Definitely a risk. For my situation I'm thinking I'll take it (offer on the table as a 3 way trade which I hate). My league dynamic is weird and all 2023 1sts are concentrated with 3 teams (me and 2 heavy rebuilders) and given my team I don't think I would get a veteran better than my current players for that pick.

Good lord that team is loaded. Yeah, I'd add Breece to that team

[bjd5211]

No. You can likely draft a RB prospect just as good as him without a knee injury that could diminish his 2023 (if not entire career), or trade that pick during the draft at the peak of Rookie Fever. Just hold it.

If it's 1 QB, you won't get a prospect as good as Breece if it's 1.05, SF you might. I do agree that the pick value hasn't peaked yet, though. The fever is undefeated.

I wouldn't rule it out. Breece wasn't some super great prospect everyone was in love with last year, he was just the best of fairly shallow group. I don't think guys like Zach Evans or Tank Williams are much different than Breece as a prospect, they're just in a stronger class.

Plus you're only taking the low end outcome into account, he projected it finished 1.03-1.05 and you jumped straight to 5, but what if it is indeed 1.03? That would guarantee you Gibbs or Tucker (Bijan going 2 if he somehow doesn't go 1), and I would much rather have Gibbs or Tucker right now than I did Breece this time last year (and I liked Breece).

Either way the pick is the appreciating asset at this time and Hall is the deprecating asset, until he returns and looks good his value is going to trickle downwards and then rocket up or down depending upon his performance.

[TimeWillTell]

I have a 1st that'll be either 1.01 (most likely) or 1.02. And another one likely in that 1.03-1.05 range.

[jomaed]

I have a 1st that'll be either 1.01 (most likely) or 1.02. And another one likely in that 1.03-1.05 range.

I'm surprised the rest of the league hasn't thrown in the towel yet with your lineup. AND 4 2023 firsts . well done.