Drake London vs. Christian Watson

[CGW]

On London, I was sitting at the #10 pick in our rookie draft and can't even tell you who I was targeting (James Cook maybe? Who went before I picked) and when my pick came up it was one of those, "Okay, what am I missing? Why is London still on the board?" things.

So ummmmmm, yeah. I drafted him. I'm sufficiently pleased right now, as I didn't think I'd get anything of value.

Lucky, never saw him make it past pick 3 in five leagues. I did get Olave and Williams late in the first a few times though.

[lukkynumber13]

I’ll never forget in one league, a 24T DOUBLE COPY league

The FIRST copy of Watson went at 1.04…

[CGW]

I’ll never forget in one league, a 24T DOUBLE COPY league

The FIRST copy of Watson went at 1.04…

Wow, I thought I reached when I took him at 1.09 haha

[AussieMate]

Not going to make comments about Watson as its only been 3 weeks into his rookie year and he always seemed raw to me so give it time.

London on the other hand, yes its also only been 3 weeks, but, I'm sure we have already seen enough to put to bed most of the concerns people had for him. The guy can play, that is all.

On another note, when all we hear is that this WR class would be really good, then teams fall over themselves to move up and grab them, we should probably pay attention because every 1st rnd WR has looked good in their own way.

[mild]

Fading all the other RB seemed more obvious this year than most. Still doesnt stop most people from reaching for RB. Sound reasoning on London pick as well. I would think he went 2-5 in 90% of leagues. Watson was never truly comparable. Draft capital alone proves that

You are, of course, right as usual. But to be clear, this thread was created in those glorious halycon days of May, because posters around here were LITERALLY saying they would rather have Watson, straight up. Like - leaving relative cost completely out of it - they would rather have Watson. That's how far the offseason silliness had got.

I'm all for calling your shot, but it just goes to show - if you're going to willingly spit in the face of production profiles (breakout age, college market share, real-world draft capital) and call someone a "future bust who wouldn't even make it as a TE because he runs a 4.8 forty"... whilst ALSO stumping for a DIV2 athlete with a lot of profile questions... then like, at least don't be a d--k about it in the process for the day those receipts get cashed.

[halfbaked88]

This thread really surprises me. I thought I was bold for having Christian Watson over Skyy Moore, but to have him over London... I'm just shaking my head right now

When a WR has an early breakout age playing alongside not one, but two, WRs drafted into the NFL who then go on to have early success, you can not dismiss that easily. When you weigh team targets earned against other proven talent - that in itself tells you that WR is talented. I really challenge someone on that point to prove me otherwise. It's 100% law that targets at the WR position are earned through skill. Or is London just that lucky?

Who was Christian Watson competing with for targets? I can tell for you for a fact it wasn't Michael Pittman and Amon Ra St-Brown.

I'm also not bold enough to think I can properly analyze film the way people think they can. But judging from what I've seen the overly contested catches come down to poorly thrown footballs - not lack of separation and speed.

Since we're showing receipts... I've nailed a safe method for hitting on elite rookie WRs. And it's easy. Two simple questions: "Who were their teammates in college?" ... "Were they producing at the same time?"

That's it. That's 90% of what you need to know at the WR position in rookie drafts.

Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, JSN

Drake London, Michael Pittman, Amon Ra-St Brown

When you play alongside future NFL 1st and 2nd round WRs and outcompete/earn targets in college you are a proven talent.

Not a single person with that knowledge should have doubted Drake London for a single second with his production profile AND who he was producing with. Ditto for Wilson.

[Mjvb5]

This thread really surprises me. I thought I was bold for having Christian Watson over Skyy Moore, but to have him over London... I'm just shaking my head right now

When a WR has an early breakout age playing alongside not one, but two, WRs drafted into the NFL who then go on to have early success, you can not dismiss that easily. When you weigh team targets earned against other proven talent - that in itself tells you that WR is talented. I really challenge someone on that point to prove me otherwise. It's 100% law that targets at the WR position are earned through skill. Or is London just that lucky?

Who was Christian Watson competing with for targets? I can tell for you for a fact it wasn't Michael Pittman and Amon Ra St-Brown.

I'm also not bold enough to think I can properly analyze film the way people think they can. But judging from what I've seen the overly contested catches come down to poorly thrown footballs - not lack of separation and speed.

Since we're showing receipts... I've nailed a safe method for hitting on elite rookie WRs. And it's easy. Two simple questions: "Who were their teammates in college?" ... "Were they producing at the same time?"

That's it. That's 90% of what you need to know at the WR position in rookie drafts.

Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, JSN

Drake London, Michael Pittman, Amon Ra-St Brown

When you play alongside future NFL 1st and 2nd round WRs and outcompete/earn targets in college you are a proven talent.

Not a single person with that knowledge should have doubted Drake London for a single second with his production profile AND who he was producing with. Ditto for Wilson.

X4 producing alongside other NFL level talents(especially at a younger age like London and jsn) is absurdly predictable of NFL success

[Jigga94]

Throw in DK, AJB and Elijah Moore

[ericanadian]

This thread really surprises me. I thought I was bold for having Christian Watson over Skyy Moore, but to have him over London... I'm just shaking my head right now

When a WR has an early breakout age playing alongside not one, but two, WRs drafted into the NFL who then go on to have early success, you can not dismiss that easily. When you weigh team targets earned against other proven talent - that in itself tells you that WR is talented. I really challenge someone on that point to prove me otherwise. It's 100% law that targets at the WR position are earned through skill. Or is London just that lucky?

Who was Christian Watson competing with for targets? I can tell for you for a fact it wasn't Michael Pittman and Amon Ra St-Brown.

I'm also not bold enough to think I can properly analyze film the way people think they can. But judging from what I've seen the overly contested catches come down to poorly thrown footballs - not lack of separation and speed.

Since we're showing receipts... I've nailed a safe method for hitting on elite rookie WRs. And it's easy. Two simple questions: "Who were their teammates in college?" ... "Were they producing at the same time?"

That's it. That's 90% of what you need to know at the WR position in rookie drafts.

Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, JSN

Drake London, Michael Pittman, Amon Ra-St Brown

When you play alongside future NFL 1st and 2nd round WRs and outcompete/earn targets in college you are a proven talent.

Not a single person with that knowledge should have doubted Drake London for a single second with his production profile AND who he was producing with. Ditto for Wilson.

Jerry Jeudy is still hoping you’re right!

[mild]

Been thinking about this thread again recently...

I'll admit, it did look pretty good there for Christian Watson for a 6 game stretch there last year with a HoF QB throwing him the ball.

Since then? That guy is gone, and the new guy would rather throw to Dontavion Wicks and Jayden Reed. Watson himself seems plagued by drops, mental mistakes, and injuries. He had a toe tapper TD today in Week 11, but he didn't have the technical skill to drag his feet in bounds. Is it ever going to happen for this guy? Is he really going to be a Year 3 star like some people predicted?

Through 28 weeks of football to start their careers:

Drake London
26 games
178 targets / 112 receptions
1340 yards
6 TD's (4 in 2022, 2 in 2023)

Christian Watson
20 games
99 targets / 55 receptions
847 yards
8 TD's (7 in 2022, 1 in 2023)

Both of these guys are now stuck with bottom-tier QB play, like so many in the league. Those tiebreakers because "Watson was tied to a top passing offense" lasted all of one year. Nobody rostering Drake is exactly happy... but then again, perhaps it could be worse...

Any of the team Watson truthers ready to jump the fence yet? Or are you guys still holding your "year 3 breakout star"? Genuinely curious.

[FantasyFreak]

Been thinking about this thread again recently...

I'll admit, it did look pretty good there for Christian Watson for a 6 game stretch there last year with a HoF QB throwing him the ball.

Since then? That guy is gone, and the new guy would rather throw to Dontavion Wicks and Jayden Reed. Watson himself seems plagued by drops, mental mistakes, and injuries. He had a toe tapper TD today in Week 11, but he didn't have the technical skill to drag his feet in bounds. Is it ever going to happen for this guy? Is he really going to be a Year 3 star like some people predicted?

Through 28 weeks of football to start their careers:

Drake London
26 games
178 targets / 112 receptions
1340 yards
6 TD's (4 in 2022, 2 in 2023)

Christian Watson
20 games
99 targets / 55 receptions
847 yards
8 TD's (7 in 2022, 1 in 2023)

Both of these guys are now stuck with bottom-tier QB play, like so many in the league. Those tiebreakers because "Watson was tied to a top passing offense" lasted all of one year. Nobody rostering Drake is exactly happy... but then again, perhaps it could be worse...

Any of the team Watson truthers ready to jump the fence yet? Or are you guys still holding your "year 3 breakout star"? Genuinely curious.

That catch was next to impossible. I'm not going to fault him for that one. However, he's not a good route runner, and is not a good contested catch guy for his size. He has Roberto Duran hands.

I prefer London as a player, by a lot. I also think Love is better than any of the Falcons, and I think that in a year or two, the pass offense will look a lot better. Just not sure Watson's going to be a big part of it. I think he's a guy that has some use in the RZ, and for deep plays/stretching the D, but I think, a lot like Jameson Williams, he's a tactical piece to an NFL offense, more than a reliable FF option.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Been thinking about this thread again recently...

I'll admit, it did look pretty good there for Christian Watson for a 6 game stretch there last year with a HoF QB throwing him the ball.

Since then? That guy is gone, and the new guy would rather throw to Dontavion Wicks and Jayden Reed. Watson himself seems plagued by drops, mental mistakes, and injuries. He had a toe tapper TD today in Week 11, but he didn't have the technical skill to drag his feet in bounds. Is it ever going to happen for this guy? Is he really going to be a Year 3 star like some people predicted?

Through 28 weeks of football to start their careers:

Drake London
26 games
178 targets / 112 receptions
1340 yards
6 TD's (4 in 2022, 2 in 2023)

Christian Watson
20 games
99 targets / 55 receptions
847 yards
8 TD's (7 in 2022, 1 in 2023)

Both of these guys are now stuck with bottom-tier QB play, like so many in the league. Those tiebreakers because "Watson was tied to a top passing offense" lasted all of one year. Nobody rostering Drake is exactly happy... but then again, perhaps it could be worse...

Any of the team Watson truthers ready to jump the fence yet? Or are you guys still holding your "year 3 breakout star"? Genuinely curious.

That catch was next to impossible. I'm not going to fault him for that one. However, he's not a good route runner, and is not a good contested catch guy for his size. He has Roberto Duran hands.

I prefer London as a player, by a lot. I also think Love is better than any of the Falcons, and I think that in a year or two, the pass offense will look a lot better. Just not sure Watson's going to be a big part of it. I think he's a guy that has some use in the RZ, and for deep plays/stretching the D, but I think, a lot like Jameson Williams, he's a tactical piece to an NFL offense, more than a reliable FF option.

Hmm, Watson had a great open score as a rookie (73 if I remember correctly) and his open score this year is also very good (67) (23rd best in the league). Whatever you want to call it, route running or whatever, he’s getting open. Better than London, both years.

[ThirdWW]

Watson getting outplayed by a couple 4th round picks. Love would be a huge upgrade to Ridder, and he’s not that good.

[mild]

Hmm, Watson had a great open score as a rookie (73 if I remember correctly) and his open score this year is also very good (67) (23rd best in the league). Whatever you want to call it, route running or whatever, he’s getting open. Better than London, both years.

And yet...

67 on Open Score but a 36 on Catch Score on that same chart kinda says it all. Watson having spotty hands was always part of the rub with his evaluation. As was his lack of polish, and coming from DIV2 competition... but yes big receiver run fast get open go brrrr.

Elijah Moore being the 8th highest scorer in "Open Score" should tell us there's more to playing WR than just getting "Open" by their metric imo.

Likewise, receivers like ARSB, Devonta Smith, Jordan Addison, DJ Moore, Nico Collins all having open scores in the 50's (or lower) should tell us that it's a highly subjective stat that doesn't really tell us the full story of what's going on out there contextually.

It honestly might be my least favourite WR metric to judge by at this point, outside of box-scouting their 40 time.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Hmm, Watson had a great open score as a rookie (73 if I remember correctly) and his open score this year is also very good (67) (23rd best in the league). Whatever you want to call it, route running or whatever, he’s getting open. Better than London, both years.

And yet...

67 on Open Score but a 36 on Catch Score on that same chart kinda says it all. Watson having spotty hands was always part of the rub with his evaluation. As was his lack of polish, and coming from DIV2 competition... but yes big receiver run fast get open go brrrr.

Elijah Moore being the 8th highest scorer in "Open Score" should tell us there's more to playing WR than just getting "Open" by their metric imo.

Likewise, receivers like ARSB, Devonta Smith, Jordan Addison, DJ Moore, Nico Collins all having open scores in the 50's (or lower) should tell us that it's a highly subjective stat that doesn't really tell us the full story of what's going on out there contextually.

It honestly might be my least favourite WR metric to judge by at this point, outside of box-scouting their 40 time.

I’ve made the exact point you’re making in the Elijah Moore thread. My intent wasn’t to show how great a receiver Watson is, I was merely saying the narrative that he can’t run routes or get open might be unfounded.

And open score isn’t subjective…. It’s the exact opposite