Marlon Mack vs Dameon Pierce

[Two Cents]

Who do you think will be more productive in 2022?

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[dlf4lyfe]

Imma go Pierce. It's a RBBC and they ain't playing for the playoffs, so Pierce will get plenty of looks later in the season if he earns it I bet.

[Gator Sens]

Pierce for dynasty even this year. No one is buying Mack. Take the value here.

[Two Cents]

Pierce for dynasty even this year. No one is buying Mack. Take the value here.

I bought Mack. I think he is a cheaper throw in with sneaky upside for this year. Pierce still has to prove he can do the intangibles, and they are both 4th round NFL draft picks that were brought in by the same regime. Pierce has no real advantage in terms of capital, regime, experience or talent - just age. Im taking the seasoned veteran in his prime at a lower price for now. Thats just me though. Its definitely a coin flip and I would feel more confident long term in having them both.

¢¢

[dlf4lyfe]

I'm not hear to argue, and Mack could certainly end up being their guy for all we know (and proved he could in 2019), but if they really felt Marlon Mack was their RB1, why would they (1) pay Rex Burkhead more money (2) draft a RB in the 4th round?

For me, the writing is on the wall that Mack & Rex are there on 1 year deals to provide veteran leadership and hold things over til 2023 where the Texans can find their franchise QB. Pierce certainly has to prove it, as does every rookie, but it seems like he'll be given a shot as their main carrying back considering his profile while Rex is more of their pass catching back. You would have to think they brought in Mack & drafted Pierce to compliment one each other in the run game, considering theirs was basically non existent last season. They'll give the better player more looks if they want to win, but they are more invested in Pierce (thru 2025)

[ericanadian]

This is Pep Hamilton… He’s going to run the reliable veteran into the ground. If Mack stays healthy, he’s probably leading this backfield.

[dlf4lyfe]

This is Pep Hamilton… He’s going to run the reliable veteran into the ground. If Mack stays healthy, he’s probably leading this backfield.

Is there a track record for Pep doing that or something? In 2016 when he was the 1-15 Browns, they finished 19th in rushing.

[Two Cents]

I'm not hear to argue....if they really felt Marlon Mack was their RB1, why would they (1) pay Rex Burkhead more money (2) draft a RB in the 4th round?

For me, the writing is on the wall that Mack & Rex are there on 1 year deals

I think these are interesting questions.

1) I think they extended Burkhead for a year as insurance as a change of pace, emergency RB. He is familiar with their system and that means something in terms of competing while rebuilding.
2) I think Marlon and Dameon are both attempts to try and solve the RB position for a low cost. I think they didnt want to sink too much money into the RB position while rebuilding their roster.

With that in mind there are a couple ways this can go
A) If Mack is effective and Pierce doesnt show ability to overtake him, they will likely re-sign Mack and draft another RB next year. (Think Tevin Coleman to Breece Hall....there were a few 3rd round RBs in there before the Jets drafted Hall.)
B) If both Mack and Pierce are effective, of course they will eventually go with Pierce and let Mack walk. May still draft another RB though depending on how effective Pierce is.
C) If Mack isnt effective at all, of course they will go with Pierce.
But if D) Pierce also isnt effective then they will likely draft another RB next year, let Macks contract expire and continue their search.

I think you are right about Mack being on a short leash. But I dont know if that means that Dameon Pierce will be a better producer this year.

¢¢

[StableOfRBs]

Been trying to acquire Pierce anywhere I can tbh, by all accounts he's been showing great vision and burst all camp long.

They may give Mack the vet nod over Pierce to start the year but I think it'll be at least somewhat of a split early on with Pierce taking over more touches within the first few games. Mack may have the proven production at the NFL level but that was 3 years and a torn Achilles ago, he's only played in six games since that injury and was very underwhelming in those games.

(Also imo even though they may both be 4th round picks I don't really think the capital is the same, two completely different coaches in two different systems years apart, as RBs have been pushed down drafts in the past couple years I think 4th rounders are becoming the new 3rd rounders in the same way 2nd rounders are the new 1st rounders, the Texans only investment into Mack is a 2 million dollar, one-year deal with 250k guaranteed)

[ericanadian]

This is Pep Hamilton… He’s going to run the reliable veteran into the ground. If Mack stays healthy, he’s probably leading this backfield.

Is there a track record for Pep doing that or something? In 2016 when he was the 1-15 Browns, they finished 19th in rushing.

I was more looking at his OC track record from back in Indy. He ran TRich, even though TRich was absolutely awful. Then went with a 32 year old Frank Gore. Part of that might have been because Ahmad Bradshaw couldn’t stay healthy, but the team also hated Donald Brown for some reason I never really figured out. Maybe they were right about Brown as he went over to San Diego and didn’t do anything either, but his efficiency numbers certainly suggested he should’ve gotten more run, especially compared to TRich.

Now, Pep may just want a goon-sized grinder and maybe that favours Pierce, and its entirely possible Pep has evolved. My guess though is that Mack has the inside track if he can stay healthy.

[Anteaters]

Let's not forget what the best version of Mack was as a NFL RB. He was an 80TotYds/gm plodder who averaged 0.6TD/gm. And that was BEFORE HE TORE HIS ACHILLES.

No one is suggesting Mack can possibly be a better RB post-recovery than before. Everyone accepts he's going to be a lesser version of his pre-injury self. The only question is how much lesser? If Mack is 15% less effective than before, we might say that makes him a 68TotYd/gm who scores 0.5TDs/gm. If Mack is 30% less effective, that might translate to 55TotYds/gm and 0.4TDs/gm. Or Mack could be even more diminished by his injury. But even at a best case scenario of only 15% decline in ability, he's not a good bet to win the starting job unless Pierce is complete garbage. Let's not overlook that Mack's ypc dropped an entire yard from 4.6 in his two-year prime down to 3.6ypc in 2021. That is not the ypc of a starting RB in the NFL. Further, his yards-per-reception dropped from a pre-injury average of 8.0 to 4.0yds in 2021. Yes, the sample size was small for his post-injury stats, but still noteworthy.

My prediction is Burkhead will be the steady hand who does not start but does all the dirty work - with the current backfield options, Burkhead's on-field percentages are locked in. Mack will receive a couple of starts to begin the season. Pierce will come off the bench in the beginning but quickly prove to be better than Mack. By midseason, it will be a RBBC with Pierce and Rex splitting 80% of the touches, Pierce will be the nominal starter, and Mack will split scraps with the RB4.

Go with Pierce. Pierce may or may not be the long term answer, but it's almost a certainty that Mack is not the answer for the season or beyond.

[dlf4lyfe]

Well takes in this thread aged quickly . We are all playing the guessing game in fairness, but the writing was on the wall early with Pierce.