Are You Starting Olave? What WR is he to YOU?

[wickerkat1212]

I was just curious about your thoughts on Olave. I only got one share, but really wanted to get him, so I moved an aging stud and a pick to acquire him. Here are my questions for you:

1. Are you starting him at all this year?
2. If you are, what numbers will he put up—WR1, WR2, WR3, WR4?
3. In time, what do you think he'll be?

I am starting him in the league I have him, as a WR3/WR4 behind players like Diggs and Lamb. You?

[prinefan]

Only have in one league. Not planning on starting him unless I lose a starter, or he lights it up. Hoping for WR3 when I do play him. I have 3 competent RB's so only starting 3 wr's (Kupp, Drake London, Elijah Moore/Skye Moore). In time (no hurry), I expect wr 2 numbers.

[StableOfRBs]

I think he's probably a WR3 on the year with room potential to move into a low-end WR2 depending on what Landry looks like and I have several 4WR and 3WR/2Flex leagues where I can definitely see myself starting him this season if I own him.

The Saints offense has been kinda in turmoil the past couple years with Thomas being hurt and no Brees but I think they can get back on track and their 504 pass attempts last year (iirc that's an 8 year low or something along those lines for them) is closer to the 580ish they had in 2019, probably somewhere in the 550-560 range, a little below average compared to the rest of the league. I think Thomas will get the 140 targets or so he was getting before he got hurt (by all accounts he's completely healthy and looks like the best player on the offense in camp right now) with Kamara getting his 60-75 targets (a little less than the ~100 he was getting before but I do think the addition of Olave and Landry does eat into his target share a bit).

This leaves about 335 targets unaccounted for. Now the Saints did sign Landry *after* the draft (and obviously after they had taken Olave) but they gave him a very cheap one-year prove-it deal that is very incentive-laden so there's not a real cash commitment forcing them to justify his cost by giving him a ton of playing time and personally I think they wanted to bring in a solid vet possession receiver to hedge against Thomas's health and Olave maybe struggling as a rookie. (That and Landry is a hometown guy: he's from NO, went to high school there, and played at LSU).

I think there's a decent chance that Olave can see 80-90 targets as a rookie, Landry probably taking another 70-80 himself and the remaining 175ish targets being distributed among Trautman, Harty, Callaway, etc. Off those 80-90 targets I think Olave probably catches ~55 of those for 700-725 yards and 4-6 TDs which would give him ~150 points in PPR which is right around the WR36 from last year with the potential for him to do more if he can be more efficient (either with yards or TDs) or if he can play his way into 100+ targets.

Going forward I think it's likely he can be their WR1 once Thomas either moves on or starts to decline due to age/injuries. I can't say whether it's likely he'll be that 140+ target guy Thomas was in recent years but I think it's possible for him and he can be that 120ish annual target guy with room for more.

[wickerkat1212]

I think he's probably a WR3 on the year with room potential to move into a low-end WR2 depending on what Landry looks like and I have several 4WR and 3WR/2Flex leagues where I can definitely see myself starting him this season if I own him.

The Saints offense has been kinda in turmoil the past couple years with Thomas being hurt and no Brees but I think they can get back on track and their 504 pass attempts last year (iirc that's an 8 year low or something along those lines for them) is closer to the 580ish they had in 2019, probably somewhere in the 550-560 range, a little below average compared to the rest of the league. I think Thomas will get the 140 targets or so he was getting before he got hurt (by all accounts he's completely healthy and looks like the best player on the offense in camp right now) with Kamara getting his 60-75 targets (a little less than the ~100 he was getting before but I do think the addition of Olave and Landry does eat into his target share a bit).

This leaves about 335 targets unaccounted for. Now the Saints did sign Landry *after* the draft (and obviously after they had taken Olave) but they gave him a very cheap one-year prove-it deal that is very incentive-laden so there's not a real cash commitment forcing them to justify his cost by giving him a ton of playing time and personally I think they wanted to bring in a solid vet possession receiver to hedge against Thomas's health and Olave maybe struggling as a rookie. (That and Landry is a hometown guy: he's from NO, went to high school there, and played at LSU).

I think there's a decent chance that Olave can see 80-90 targets as a rookie, Landry probably taking another 70-80 himself and the remaining 175ish targets being distributed among Trautman, Harty, Callaway, etc. Off those 80-90 targets I think Olave probably catches ~55 of those for 700-725 yards and 4-6 TDs which would give him ~150 points in PPR which is right around the WR36 from last year with the potential for him to do more if he can be more efficient (either with yards or TDs) or if he can play his way into 100+ targets.

Going forward I think it's likely he can be their WR1 once Thomas either moves on or starts to decline due to age/injuries. I can't say whether it's likely he'll be that 140+ target guy Thomas was in recent years but I think it's possible for him and he can be that 120ish annual target guy with room for more.

Thank you for all of this. Well said. I agree. Fingers crossed.

[Cameron Giles]

If I'm competing/contending, I'm not starting him off the bat. Give it time, wait for signs of good usage, and then play him. There's too much unknown with the Saints offense right now without Sean Payton, Jameis returning from ACL, Thomas back after two wasted seasons...

I think this season he's probably more WR3/Flex.

[j4pac]

He was readily getting open all day today against the Packers…including Jaire Alexander.

[CGW]

I've got him as my WR5 this season, behind Adams, Evans, Diontae, Mooney. If he becomes my WR4 I'd be thrilled this year. Long term I see him as a steady WR2 with volume WR1 upside.

[Mjvb5]

Expected to get a bunch of him going into the year as I had him at 6th overall in this rookie class and consistently saw him at 8 or 9. However between often times picking either too high or too low and various guys I prefer falling to me(mainly Wilson) I didn't wind up with a single share of him.

Saying that I expect him to be a spot startable wr4 type at various points this year

[MacDaddy123]

I was just curious about your thoughts on Olave. I only got one share, but really wanted to get him, so I moved an aging stud and a pick to acquire him. Here are my questions for you:

1. Are you starting him at all this year? No, I have Zero shares of Olave
2. If you are, what numbers will he put up—WR1, WR2, WR3, WR4? I'd guess WR3 numbers for 2022.
3. In time, what do you think he'll be? Mid to late WR2, at best.

I am starting him in the league I have him, as a WR3/WR4 behind players like Diggs and Lamb. You?

I am not a fan, I feel he is over-rated, so I have shares of every WR in the top 2 rounds except for Olave and London.
London I would want, but haven't been able to get any yet.
Olave, I have been avoiding. Grabbing Jameson Williams, George Pickens and Skyy Moore in that range.

I could see Olave having a career similar to Terry McLaurin. McLaurin has had WR29, WR20, and WR25 finishes his first 3 seasons.

[jman3134]

Why don't you like him if he is like McLaurin?

[mls]

I've got him as my WR5 this season, behind Adams, Evans, Diontae, Mooney. If he becomes my WR4 I'd be thrilled this year. Long term I see him as a steady WR2 with volume WR1 upside.

This is a good assessment. If you start Olave make him your WR4. Long term he could be a WR2 with WR1 weeks thrown in.

[thebadferret]

For some reason he fell to me at pick 11 so I got him and he is going straight to my taxi squad. Could see him putting up a WR3 season and he will probably become a solid WR2 for the years to come.

[j4pac]

People overlooking Olave are making a mistake. He’s been every bit as good as Pickens, but he doesn’t need to do a triple backflip one handed catch with a defender draped over him because…wait for it…he consistently gets open

[CGW]

People overlooking Olave are making a mistake. He’s been every bit as good as Pickens, but he doesn’t need to do a triple backflip one handed catch with a defender draped over him because…wait for it…he consistently gets open

I'd hope no one is overlooking him at this point. I think most people are just hesitant to expect starting numbers from rookies, although maybe that is beginning to change in today's NFL.

[MacDaddy123]

Why don't you like him if he is like McLaurin?

Because I have other WR's in that tier that I like better than McLaurin, higher ceiling.
WR's like Burks, Pickens, and Skyy Moore.

I do like Olave over Christian Watson, but he is always gone by then.

I think Olave has a nice, safe floor, but other WR's in his tier have higher ceilings.
I'll go for the ceiling.

This is just my opinion. I do realize that some are higher on Olave than I am.
Just like with any player, some are higher, some are lower than average.

Personally, 4th and 5th year seniors give me reason to pause.
The top players tend to come out ASAP.