Zach Wilson

[Ice]

The year Wilson blew up BYU had to throw together a hodgepodge schedule full of any team that was willing to play them in a COVID stricken year.. this led to one of the easiest strength of schedules BYU has played in probably over a decade. The one team that came in with a defense in the top 30 was Coastal Carolina... which was coincidentally BYU's only loss of the season.

Not a Wilson truther or hater as I have no dog in the fight but this is the most interesting post I have read about him.

QB's for the most part are never really drafted based on their College win/loss record but that was interesting.

[Kcarr]

The year Wilson blew up BYU had to throw together a hodgepodge schedule full of any team that was willing to play them in a COVID stricken year.. this led to one of the easiest strength of schedules BYU has played in probably over a decade. The one team that came in with a defense in the top 30 was Coastal Carolina... which was coincidentally BYU's only loss of the season.

Not a Wilson truther or hater as I have no dog in the fight but this is the most interesting post I have read about him.

QB's for the most part are never really drafted based on their College win/loss record but that was interesting.

I took this as less a statement about wins and losses so much as a statement about the quality of defenders he was facing in those games

[drobes]

The year Wilson blew up BYU had to throw together a hodgepodge schedule full of any team that was willing to play them in a COVID stricken year.. this led to one of the easiest strength of schedules BYU has played in probably over a decade. The one team that came in with a defense in the top 30 was Coastal Carolina... which was coincidentally BYU's only loss of the season.

Not a Wilson truther or hater as I have no dog in the fight but this is the most interesting post I have read about him.

He's in year 2. Trying to glean insight of NFL success based on his college career at this point is an exercise in futility. NFL talent evaluating is a billion dollar business. An insane amount of resources go into the process, especially for lottery picks. Wilson went #2 overall and any negative aspects of his college performance were baked into the equation long ago.

That's not to say that high draft picks are guaranteed NFL success, hardly. But that will be determined by things that happen after they were drafted: injuries, growth as a player and person, fit with culture/personnel/scheme, how their commitment and focus changes, etc. It won't be determined by something that happened during his college career, especially something so obvious and easily quantifiable as strength of competition.

[Yarnith]

I think theres no reason to give up hope on any of last years rookie QBs. I stated before in other threads Wilson measurably improved as the year progressed. There are a lot of things to find fault with but then he looked better than most of the rookie class and didn't have the kind of coddling Mac Jones enjoyed to keep the game slow and dumbed down. That is not a shot at Jones, I like him but a simple fact of how gently he was handled and eased into the NFL as a starter by the Patriots.

I really am only baffled by people who pound the drum for Fields, Lawrence or Lance while simultaneously disparaging Wilson. Doesn't make any sense.

[AZK]

The year Wilson blew up BYU had to throw together a hodgepodge schedule full of any team that was willing to play them in a COVID stricken year.. this led to one of the easiest strength of schedules BYU has played in probably over a decade. The one team that came in with a defense in the top 30 was Coastal Carolina... which was coincidentally BYU's only loss of the season.

Not a Wilson truther or hater as I have no dog in the fight but this is the most interesting post I have read about him.

He's in year 2. Trying to glean insight of NFL success based on his college career at this point is an exercise in futility. NFL talent evaluating is a billion dollar business. An insane amount of resources go into the process, especially for lottery picks. Wilson went #2 overall and any negative aspects of his college performance were baked into the equation long ago.

That's not to say that high draft picks are guaranteed NFL success, hardly. But that will be determined by things that happen after they were drafted: injuries, growth as a player and person, fit with culture/personnel/scheme, how their commitment and focus changes, etc. It won't be determined by something that happened during his college career, especially something so obvious and easily quantifiable as strength of competition.

I was mainly commenting on the fact that he was a relative unknown in terms of the QBs in that draft class prior to blowing up the year before he came out and was selected #2 overall. I had no clue BYU played such an easy schedule that year and it makes sense why he became so popular so quick. I haven't watched enough Jets games to form an opinion on him one way or another. Thanks for pointing out that the NFL is a billion dollar business though.

[zaner75]

The year Wilson blew up BYU had to throw together a hodgepodge schedule full of any team that was willing to play them in a COVID stricken year.. this led to one of the easiest strength of schedules BYU has played in probably over a decade. The one team that came in with a defense in the top 30 was Coastal Carolina... which was coincidentally BYU's only loss of the season.

Not a Wilson truther or hater as I have no dog in the fight but this is the most interesting post I have read about him.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/292 ... ing-finish

Lazy analysis to say that the reason they lost the game was Wilson. BYU got stopped on the one yard line at the end of the game.

"BYU had gotten the ball back down five with 55 seconds to play and driven 81 yards total with a final Zach Wilson pass to Dax Milne coming just three feet short of a walk-off victory.

Wilson finished 19-of-30 passing for 240 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

BYU gained 405 total yards to Coastal's 366, though the Chanticleers were held to just 85 passing yards. It's the first loss for the Cougars since falling to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl last December."

Stats aren't great but he gave them a chance at winning the game at the end. Just like that game, Wilson didn't have a good rookie season but was markedly improved at the end of it. The organization has provided the support around him for him to succeed. I hope that he builds on that late season improvement and takes the next step.
People writing him off because of one loss in college or what he did at the beginning of his rookie season have already made up their mind about him and aren't willing to move off their priors, imo. If he lays an egg at the beginning of the season, I'll join them in all their negativity but until that point, I am choosing to have optimism.

[Sriracha]

The year Wilson blew up BYU had to throw together a hodgepodge schedule full of any team that was willing to play them in a COVID stricken year.. this led to one of the easiest strength of schedules BYU has played in probably over a decade. The one team that came in with a defense in the top 30 was Coastal Carolina... which was coincidentally BYU's only loss of the season.

Not a Wilson truther or hater as I have no dog in the fight but this is the most interesting post I have read about him.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/292 ... ing-finish

Lazy analysis to say that the reason they lost the game was Wilson. BYU got stopped on the one yard line at the end of the game.

"BYU had gotten the ball back down five with 55 seconds to play and driven 81 yards total with a final Zach Wilson pass to Dax Milne coming just three feet short of a walk-off victory.

Wilson finished 19-of-30 passing for 240 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

BYU gained 405 total yards to Coastal's 366, though the Chanticleers were held to just 85 passing yards. It's the first loss for the Cougars since falling to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl last December."

Stats aren't great but he gave them a chance at winning the game at the end. Just like that game, Wilson didn't have a good rookie season but was markedly improved at the end of it. The organization has provided the support around him for him to succeed. I hope that he builds on that late season improvement and takes the next step.
People writing him off because of one loss in college or what he did at the beginning of his rookie season have already made up their mind about him and aren't willing to move off their priors, imo. If he lays an egg at the beginning of the season, I'll join them in all their negativity but until that point, I am choosing to have optimism.

I didn’t even say that game was “his fault”; But games like Coastal Carolina are not why Wilson went #2 overall and are closer to the game situations he’s going to be under in the NFL.

He obviously has talent and the Jets are doing their best to put him in situations he can succeed in but there’s a strong case to be made that he had further to go in his NFL development than many of his fans would’ve had you believe when he was coming out

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I thought I remember ppl saying he was playing through a shoulder injury prior to his last season which is why his stats weren’t so great. I don’t remember the details now but I’m not so sure it was just because of his schedule

[Sriracha]

I thought I remember ppl saying he was playing through a shoulder injury prior to his last season which is why his stats weren’t so great. I don’t remember the details now but I’m not so sure it was just because of his schedule

Went hunting through twitter

Zach Wilson:
vs Power 5 non-Bowl teams or G5 under 9 Wins:
10.3 YPA, 9.5% TD%, 1.2% INT

vs Power 5 teams Bowl or G5 9+ Wins
7.3 YPA, 2.2% TD%, 2.9% INT


https://twitter.com/thorku/status/1376977468872134658

Level of competition has greatly affected Wilson's play throughout his career which leads me to believe his 2020 breakout year was largely the result of a significantly lower level of competition

[StripesOfKC]

I thought I remember ppl saying he was playing through a shoulder injury prior to his last season which is why his stats weren’t so great. I don’t remember the details now but I’m not so sure it was just because of his schedule

Went hunting through twitter

Zach Wilson:
vs Power 5 non-Bowl teams or G5 under 9 Wins:
10.3 YPA, 9.5% TD%, 1.2% INT

vs Power 5 teams Bowl or G5 9+ Wins
7.3 YPA, 2.2% TD%, 2.9% INT


https://twitter.com/thorku/status/1376977468872134658

Level of competition has greatly affected Wilson's play throughout his career which leads me to believe his 2020 breakout year was largely the result of a significantly lower level of competition

There a lot of valid complains espeically about his rookie year but level of competition I really don’t give a bleep about

Like yeah when BYU faces SEC athletes they’ll get punked. It’s not exactly some radical idea

Big Ben and Josh Allen at Miami Ohio and Wyoming got their asses beat facing Iowa and in Allen’s case Oregon and had a hard time even scoring a TD

I’d expect no different when Mormon missionaries and 2 star athletes face actual high end athletes from top of the line schools

[mild]

There a lot of valid complaints especially about his rookie year but level of competition I really don’t give a bleep about

This right here.

Those stats from his college career are nice, but they're literally a year too late. That's what we were talking about this time last year. Don't come at us about Coastal Carolina in the year of our Lord, 2022. Once a player has NFL game tape, there's no need to project his college situation any further.

It is what it is; there's far more relevant data to review.

At a certain point - the throws are the throws. Did they come against poor competition? Yes. Does that make them any less remarkable in terms of this dude's arm talent? Because there's no debating that - Wilson's got a cannon capable of launching off-platform on the run. These are rare and excellent traits that translate to fantasy; and we've already seen them flash.

By all reports, his ability to diagram and understand the game are off the charts. Where he needs to bring it together is in his decision making (and thus therefore processing speed) on the field. That is something that can come with time. He can also be helped out by having a better supporting cast around him too; no-one was asked to do more with less last year out of the Rookies.

If you're talking about "guys that have all the tools, and could take the leap" you couldn't do a lot better in terms of a buy low right now. If there's anything here - we're going to know right away, this season. I'd rather gamble on ZW over Fields and Lawrence at their respective price points, every day of the week.

[Sriracha]

I thought I remember ppl saying he was playing through a shoulder injury prior to his last season which is why his stats weren’t so great. I don’t remember the details now but I’m not so sure it was just because of his schedule

Went hunting through twitter

Zach Wilson:
vs Power 5 non-Bowl teams or G5 under 9 Wins:
10.3 YPA, 9.5% TD%, 1.2% INT

vs Power 5 teams Bowl or G5 9+ Wins
7.3 YPA, 2.2% TD%, 2.9% INT


https://twitter.com/thorku/status/1376977468872134658

Level of competition has greatly affected Wilson's play throughout his career which leads me to believe his 2020 breakout year was largely the result of a significantly lower level of competition

There a lot of valid complains espeically about his rookie year but level of competition I really don’t give a bleep about

Like yeah when BYU faces SEC athletes they’ll get punked. It’s not exactly some radical idea

Big Ben and Josh Allen at Miami Ohio and Wyoming got their asses beat facing Iowa and in Allen’s case Oregon and had a hard time even scoring a TD

I’d expect no different when Mormon missionaries and 2 star athletes face actual high end athletes from top of the line schools

These weren't just "SEC athletes" it also included non-power 5 conference teams with 9+ wins like Boise St., San Diego St, (2019) Hawaii and Coastal Carolina.

BYU also had a pretty good team around him...

There a lot of valid complaints especially about his rookie year but level of competition I really don’t give a bleep about

This right here.

Those stats from his college career are nice, but they're literally a year too late. That's what we were talking about this time last year. Don't come at us about Coastal Carolina in the year of our Lord, 2022. Once a player has NFL game tape, there's no need to project his college situation any further.

It is what it is; there's far more relevant data to review.

At a certain point - the throws are the throws. Did they come against poor competition? Yes. Does that make them any less remarkable in terms of this dude's arm talent? Because there's no debating that - Wilson's got a cannon capable of launching off-platform on the run. These are rare and excellent traits that translate to fantasy; and we've already seen them flash.

By all reports, his ability to diagram and understand the game are off the charts. Where he needs to bring it together is in his decision making (and thus therefore processing speed) on the field. That is something that can come with time. He can also be helped out by having a better supporting cast around him too; no-one was asked to do more with less last year out of the Rookies.

If you're talking about "guys that have all the tools, and could take the leap" you couldn't do a lot better in terms of a buy low right now. If there's anything here - we're going to know right away, this season. I'd rather gamble on ZW over Fields and Lawrence at their respective price points, every day of the week.

I think he's a fine buy low candidate (and I own him in a few leagues) but he still scares the bejeesus out of me.

I mentioned this earlier, but I actually liked Drew Lock coming out as well. It's all about the price point for these toolsy QBs for me. Hopefully he puts it all together this year as the Jets have given him the alley-oop he just needs to slam it home.

[Ice]

Never been too worried about production against vastly better competition in a team game. A player like Wilson who is reliant on 10 others is going to struggle when a defense has 10 others that are just way better at football. The Power 5 is just deeper.

Wilson does have the tools. He seems to make quick decisions and throwing into NFL windows isn't a problem. QB's going to bad teams are just going to struggle.

Scouts look at the player not really the team. They will obviously take in account what a QB does under massive duress or when his targets are not open but they are evaluating the QB in this instance.

Scouts actually get good information around duress plays since it is obvious his arm talent is going hit the playing catch plays when his target defeats coverage.

While I am not 100% sold on Wilson, this year should tell a lot as his weapon upgrade across the offense has been outstanding on paper. He will have to deal with rookies at several positions but by mid season his QB numbers should begin to shine through compared to his rookie season when he was thrown in the fire with limited protection.

I feel much better about his development this year than Fields whose team looks lost IMO.

[Lumps]

Zach is leaving Cabo to go attend Tight End university with Kittle after he pressured him to come. Continuation of him bring all about football.

[Chwf3rd]

I thought I remember ppl saying he was playing through a shoulder injury prior to his last season which is why his stats weren’t so great. I don’t remember the details now but I’m not so sure it was just because of his schedule

Went hunting through twitter

Zach Wilson:
vs Power 5 non-Bowl teams or G5 under 9 Wins:
10.3 YPA, 9.5% TD%, 1.2% INT

vs Power 5 teams Bowl or G5 9+ Wins
7.3 YPA, 2.2% TD%, 2.9% INT


https://twitter.com/thorku/status/1376977468872134658

Level of competition has greatly affected Wilson's play throughout his career which leads me to believe his 2020 breakout year was largely the result of a significantly lower level of competition

There a lot of valid complains espeically about his rookie year but level of competition I really don’t give a bleep about

Like yeah when BYU faces SEC athletes they’ll get punked. It’s not exactly some radical idea

Big Ben and Josh Allen at Miami Ohio and Wyoming got their asses beat facing Iowa and in Allen’s case Oregon and had a hard time even scoring a TD

I’d expect no different when Mormon missionaries and 2 star athletes face actual high end athletes from top of the line schools

Think relative strength of schedule is more important.

Sure BYU didn’t play great teams but BYU also doesn’t have the same level of talent as other schools.

I’d say that Justin Fields and Ohio St, with Henderson, Garret Wilson, Olave, etc., probably had a bigger talent advantage against his competition most weeks than BYU had. Plus, with the exception of Alabama in the playoffs, Fields was awful in his toughest games in 2020 (Northwestern and Indiana).

TLDR: relative strength of competition is what matters.