Christian Watson WR NDSU

[Sriracha]

Perhaps it has something to do with the data points I already gave you

Efficiency matters. Dynamism matters. ATHLETICISM matters (for a certain archetype of WRs). Draft capital matters.

I don't know the exact levers behind the hood for obvious reasons but I suspected he wasn't as bad of an analytical prospect as a few people on here were making him out to be... and low and behold an app that's 100% data has him rated very highly.

You gotta be f--kin kidding me here.

If you'd even dared to call Watson a better prospect than the Heisman Winner and his fast-as-sh-t running mate before the underwear Olympics, we'd have had you taken and whipped out the back of this here restaurant.

You're making one hell of a statement based solely on Athletic Measureables, for a position in the NFL that has perhaps one of the most murky correlations between said measureables and career success. Every other part of your fun sentence, Watson is a dead man walking by comparison.

I wish you well in these endeavours.

Now, about that bridge...

Sigh.. Devonta was likely knocked because we have no athletic testing on him and his extremely low BMI pushed him into outlier territory.

I can guarantee you that it doesn't give one iota that he won the heisman

Would I take Watson over Devonta? No, but that's because I have eyeballs. Easy to see why he'd be underappreciated on a spread sheet. It's not like it hated him, it likely just wasn't as sold that his college production was a lock to transfer to the NFL.

I'm honestly shocked that you're arguing that Devonta and Waddle were good analytical prospects.

I was high on both of them but both him and Waddle had concerns coming out... I really shouldn't have to rehash them...

I feel like I have to mention this because you seem to be intent on taking everything I say here to the extreme; These numbers are not to be taken as Gospel.

My point with referencing them is just to say Watson isn’t the trash analytical prospect he was being portrayed as when you account for more than his gross production, mediocre breakout age, low level of competition and Senior declare

[Ice]

@ Sriracha ;

It is really no use; I have seen fantasy football players like Mild and StripesOfKC over the last several decades that simply refuse to believe anything past their analytic models. They believe players that didn't have a 1000 yard season ,as an example, is completely their fault and system doesn't matter.

In short efficiency of opportunity means even less than an eye test so projecting improvement of any kind as a player matures is a concept so foreign it is like wondering how a cake is actually baked.

You just have to let it go and let them miss on prospects because the forest got in the way of the trees.

It's okay really, from time to time they will actually have good takes but it just won't be on WR's unless by accident because only raw stats are to be considered.

The concept of WR developing in the NFL is as foreign of a concept as some 6th round QB developing.

Remember with these two; The cake is already baked well before it is placed in the oven and nothing else matters but a player reaching some 1000 yard threshold.

Does it matter if they catch 74% of their targets; NO
Does it matter if they average 18.6 yards per catch; NO
Does it matter if their YAC is 8; NO
Does it matter being better than the next 3 receivers combined on his team; NO
Does it matter if his drop rate is less than some of the NFL's best last season; NO

See it doesn't matter if a WR is a phenomenal athlete ,why would it, because even though he crushed it with efficiency of opportunity he will never be any good NO MATTER what ANYONE says because he didn't hit some magical 1000 yard threshold.....

It's all good! but it does remind me of this classic:

“I don’t want to talk to you no more, you empty-headed animal food trough wiper. I fart in your general direction. Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries.” – French knight to King Arthur

[dynastyninja]

Dynasty player models are like a*******, everyone's got one

[Ice]

Dynasty player models are like a*******, everyone's got one

YAY!

Yes we Do! Post of the day......

Sometimes it just takes a bit of sarcasm to pull out a great post!

[Bronco Billy]

Wow, Watson sure is invoking a ton of emotional investment. This will be interesting to watch develop.

[thunderTung]

Doesnt basing your opinion off of analytical models kind of take the fun out of playing? Maybe it's just me, but watching tape of players and learning about them, and then making my own assessment is way more rewarding than just plugging them into a system that spits out some answer that may or may not end up being correct.

Dont get me wrong, if someone's profile is atrocious ill steer clear. I dont really want to take a chance on a profile that has never found NFL success, but I dont really find it enjoyable to micro analyze advanced analytics to come to my conclusions

[Cameron Giles]

Doesnt basing your opinion off of analytical models kind of take the fun out of playing? Maybe it's just me, but watching tape of players and learning about them, and then making my own assessment is way more rewarding than just plugging them into a system that spits out some answer that may or may not end up being correct.

Dont get me wrong, if someone's profile is atrocious ill steer clear. I dont really want to take a chance on a profile that has never found NFL success, but I dont really find it enjoyable to micro analyze advanced analytics to come to my conclusions

A lot of people get just as much joy out of building analytic models as some people get joy out of watching tape and reading up on them. The tape vs. analytics stuff doesn't have to exist. You can use both and consider all the pieces of information you get in the players you want.

It's all subjective at the end of the day.

[Ice]

Doesnt basing your opinion off of analytical models kind of take the fun out of playing? Maybe it's just me, but watching tape of players and learning about them, and then making my own assessment is way more rewarding than just plugging them into a system that spits out some answer that may or may not end up being correct.

Dont get me wrong, if someone's profile is atrocious ill steer clear. I dont really want to take a chance on a profile that has never found NFL success, but I dont really find it enjoyable to micro analyze advanced analytics to come to my conclusions

A lot of people get just as much joy out of building analytic models as some people get joy out of watching tape and reading up on them. The tape vs. analytics stuff doesn't have to exist. You can use both and consider all the pieces of information you get in the players you want.

It's all subjective at the end of the day.

That is true regarding subjectivity; It is a little interesting how many of the analytic types use words like "Tape Grinders" disparagingly as if theirs is the only way as they themselves are reduced to "Number Grinders"

Balance works best. I have always been more of quality of film over quantity evaluator in my mind but do know analytic components are an important tool.

[Jfever]

Balance works best. I have always been more of quality of film over quantity evaluator in my mind but do know analytic components are an important tool.

This ^

[mild]

It is really no use; I have seen fantasy football players like Mild and StripesOfKC over the last several decades that simply refuse to believe anything past their analytic models. They believe players that didn't have a 1000 yard season ,as an example, is completely their fault and system doesn't matter.

Hey man, it's fine when a player has a lacklustre analytical profile - certain people will be turned off, certain people will be turned on. I credit you for actually admitting that Watson is an immense projection who will need time to develop, and that you must look "beyond the stats, the competition level, the analytics, and the extremely raw tape" to see the diamond in the rough.

That's all fine.

This though...

This feels relevant given all of the analytical hate Watson's received here.

Via the "Breakoutfinder" his breakout rating would've placed him higher than every WR besides Ja'Marr Chase in last year's draft class and is almost double the aforementioned Denzel Mims.

... is just lazy. I'm just calling out the b-s.

You can't parachute in from 10,000 feet and "well, actually" us about an "analytical model that I found on the internet" that calls Watson the second best analytical prospect of the last two seasons, and then call it a day like you proved anything.

No citations, no quotes, no showing of the working that got them to that point. We just have to believe it? Nahhh, fam. That ain't it.

Of course those of us that actually pay attention to the analytical modellers are going to call that sh-t out. Can't spell analytical without a-n-a-l.

[Sriracha]

This feels relevant given all of the analytical hate Watson's received here.

Via the "Breakoutfinder" his breakout rating would've placed him higher than every WR besides Ja'Marr Chase in last year's draft class and is almost double the aforementioned Denzel Mims.

... is just lazy. I'm just calling out the b-s.

You can't parachute in from 10,000 feet and "well, actually" us about an "analytical model that I found on the internet" that calls Watson the second best analytical prospect of the last two seasons, and then call it a day like you proved anything.

No citations, no quotes, no showing of the working that got them to that point. We just have to believe it? Nahhh, fam. That ain't it.

Of course those of us that actually pay attention to the analytical modellers are going to call that sh-t out. Can't spell analytical without a-n-a-l.

1st off, it doesn't have him as the "2nd best analytical model of the past two seasons". He would've been the 2nd best in the 2021 class. He finished as a close 6th in what it has considered an abnormally strong 2022 class.

No one is asking you to believe anything.. as you seem pretty dead set on your stance, already.

Watson is a tier 2 prospect in https://profootballpsi.com/2022/05/12/2 ... ft-report/, as well.

And is also the 6th rated prospect in Dynasty Flock's data model (although he does fudge the numbers a bit to account for COVID, so maybe not the best example).

I'm sorry if the data points you obsess over don't like him. To act as if he's a Kadarius Toney level analytical prospect with a minuscule success rate is myopic at best..and lazy at worst. His efficiency, elite size/athleticism combo and dynamism are encouraging data points for NFL success.

I'm all for discussion here, but you seem to only want to flippantly wag your finger at his proponents... so I don't see a point in continuing our back and forth.

Good luck, we'll see what happens

[murphysxm]

In full disclosure. Sitting at 1.12 with Watson and Bell as BPA, I went Wood....... I went ceiling

[TimeWillTell]

In full disclosure. Sitting at 1.12 with Watson and Bell as BPA, I went Wood....... I went ceiling

Wood?

[FantasyFreak]

In full disclosure. Sitting at 1.12 with Watson and Bell as BPA, I went Wood....... I went ceiling

Wood?

Golf analogy, maybe?

[honcho55]

In full disclosure. Sitting at 1.12 with Watson and Bell as BPA, I went Wood....... I went ceiling

So, to me the math here is pretty easy. One guy got traded up for, to a WR needy team with instant access to Aaron Rodgers. Other dude got grabbed nearly 2 full rounds later where he will have to compete harder to be the number two. Also the athletic difference. cool if you don’t care about athleticism in WRs, but man that choice is plain easy.

I like Bell better at his price than I like Watson at his price, but heads up pick one? It’s not real close imo. Take Watson and make a deal if you don’t like him.