Ja'Marr Chase Thread

[Anteaters]

Here’s the point that’s being completely missed here. Even if Pitts isn’t Travis Kelce, as long as he fits into the Darren Waller tier he will still create an incredible positional advantage over most teams. On top of positional longevity with TEs, this dude is so young that even if he doesn’t hit he will still retain value just as TJ Hockenson did as a rookie because of the existing stigma that rookie TEs so rarely break out their rookie year’s. It will also be much easier for Pitts to be a highly TE4/5 as compared to WR4/5 for Chase.

That's my point exactly, though we seem to view it differently.

To justify his fantasy draft capital, Pitts has to become either the #1 TE or #2 TE of his era, season after season. Any season he slips to #4-#5 he becomes a bust for that season.

For instance, in 2020, Kelce averaged 20.9pts/gm and Waller 17.4pts/gm. After them, there are about eight TEs between 12.2-10.4pts/gm considered the next-best group - and that group is barely above the next group of 8-10 TEs who are as interchangeable as ice cubes. To be a true hard-to-get asset for a fantasy team, a highly drafted TE needs to finish in the top2or3 every season. Anything below that and he's just part of a group that can be acquired for a lot less than 1.03-05. I don't want to have to pick a perennial top2TE to make my draft successful.

Flip that to Chase. What if, in order for Chase to be worthy at 1.03 he HAS TO BECOME no worse than WR4 his rookie season and either WR1 or WR2 for the next 7 years? With those parameters for success, I'm not making that pick either. I don't want to base my draft's success on something that statistically happens 0.005% of the time.

I can watch Pitts' game film on a neverending loop for five months straight and I won't ever conclude I can predict he'll do that. Even the top 2 TEs of today took 3-4 seasons to become close to being considered for the top tier. If Pitts becomes the #3TE from 2020, Hockenson (11 pts/gm,) Pitts becomes LoganT and Tonyan (both 11pts/gm,) or maybe Guess-sicki (10.6pts/gm).

When you say Pitts doesn't have to become Kelce/Waller, you are saying it's okay/expected for Pitts to produce like Gesicki (700tds/6Tds in only 9 games starting). As big a Dolphins fan as I am, I'm never trading my 1.03 for Gesicki. Even if we elevate Pitts to Andrews (basically 800yds/8TDs) I don't think that's enough to consider him a better choice than Chase.

[StripesOfKC]

Here’s the point that’s being completely missed here. Even if Pitts isn’t Travis Kelce, as long as he fits into the Darren Waller tier he will still create an incredible positional advantage over most teams. On top of positional longevity with TEs, this dude is so young that even if he doesn’t hit he will still retain value just as TJ Hockenson did as a rookie because of the existing stigma that rookie TEs so rarely break out their rookie year’s. It will also be much easier for Pitts to be a highly TE4/5 as compared to WR4/5 for Chase.

The retain value part is true but Darren Waller is Kelce tier (or close enough). Asking Waller/Kittle as the expectation is still enormously high

Robert Tonyan was the TE4 last season. Try to trade him for a Diontae Johnson or Cooper Kupp and see what happens

[Cameron Giles]

Here’s the point that’s being completely missed here. Even if Pitts isn’t Travis Kelce, as long as he fits into the Darren Waller tier he will still create an incredible positional advantage over most teams. On top of positional longevity with TEs, this dude is so young that even if he doesn’t hit he will still retain value just as TJ Hockenson did as a rookie because of the existing stigma that rookie TEs so rarely break out their rookie year’s. It will also be much easier for Pitts to be a highly TE4/5 as compared to WR4/5 for Chase.

The retain value part is true but Darren Waller is Kelce tier (or close enough). Asking Waller/Kittle as the expectation is still enormously high

Robert Tonyan was the TE4 last season. Try to trade him for a Diontae Johnson or Cooper Kupp and see what happens

Agreed. Waller is firmly in the Big 3 of TEs now. He looks like a healthy Jordan Reed.

[FantasyFreak]

Here’s the point that’s being completely missed here. Even if Pitts isn’t Travis Kelce, as long as he fits into the Darren Waller tier he will still create an incredible positional advantage over most teams. On top of positional longevity with TEs, this dude is so young that even if he doesn’t hit he will still retain value just as TJ Hockenson did as a rookie because of the existing stigma that rookie TEs so rarely break out their rookie year’s. It will also be much easier for Pitts to be a highly TE4/5 as compared to WR4/5 for Chase.

The retain value part is true but Darren Waller is Kelce tier (or close enough). Asking Waller/Kittle as the expectation is still enormously high

Robert Tonyan was the TE4 last season. Try to trade him for a Diontae Johnson or Cooper Kupp and see what happens

Agreed. Waller is firmly in the Big 3 of TEs now. He looks like a healthy Jordan Reed.

Many have Waller as TE 1, and yes, he's interchangeable with the other two in that tier.

[honcho55]

Love the back and forth on Pitts.

However, back to chase.

I’m officially worried. Can explain away a good bit. But it ain’t lookin great right now. Has this hyped of a WR prospect had this rough a preseason? For any reason?

[Jrblaha]

Love the back and forth on Pitts.

However, back to chase.

I’m officially worried. Can explain away a good bit. But it ain’t lookin great right now. Has this hyped of a WR prospect had this rough a preseason? For any reason?

I’m not sure there’s ever been this hyped of a wr that took a year off of football. I expect him to have rust for the first half of the season, but hopefully get back to hyped wr after that

[Shankopotamus]

Love the back and forth on Pitts.

However, back to chase.

I’m officially worried. Can explain away a good bit. But it ain’t lookin great right now. Has this hyped of a WR prospect had this rough a preseason? For any reason?

How hyped was Treadwell?

[FantasyFreak]

Love the back and forth on Pitts.

However, back to chase.

I’m officially worried. Can explain away a good bit. But it ain’t lookin great right now. Has this hyped of a WR prospect had this rough a preseason? For any reason?

I’m not sure there’s ever been this hyped of a wr that took a year off of football. I expect him to have rust for the first half of the season, but hopefully get back to hyped wr after that

There's no excuses for the drops he's had, though. Year off should have nothing to do with it. Unless of course he literally wasn't catching footballs at all in that time. Catching a pass right in your hands, when you are standing still isn't "rust" IMO. Especially with an entire off season program. Seems more like the yips, is what he has.

[Jrblaha]

Love the back and forth on Pitts.

However, back to chase.

I’m officially worried. Can explain away a good bit. But it ain’t lookin great right now. Has this hyped of a WR prospect had this rough a preseason? For any reason?

I’m not sure there’s ever been this hyped of a wr that took a year off of football. I expect him to have rust for the first half of the season, but hopefully get back to hyped wr after that

There's no excuses for the drops he's had, though. Year off should have nothing to do with it. Unless of course he literally wasn't catching footballs at all in that time. Catching a pass right in your hands, when you are standing still isn't "rust" IMO. Especially with an entire off season program. Seems more like the yips, is what he has.

Catching footballs with a friend tossing you the ball, versus catching footballs in an actual game where big contact is going/could happen happen is different tho, and could definitely be caused by the year off imo. Feels like a mental condition from not playing last year, and I don’t think it’d be there if he had, but maybe you disagree.

[FantasyFreak]

I’m not sure there’s ever been this hyped of a wr that took a year off of football. I expect him to have rust for the first half of the season, but hopefully get back to hyped wr after that

There's no excuses for the drops he's had, though. Year off should have nothing to do with it. Unless of course he literally wasn't catching footballs at all in that time. Catching a pass right in your hands, when you are standing still isn't "rust" IMO. Especially with an entire off season program. Seems more like the yips, is what he has.

Catching footballs with a friend tossing you the ball, versus catching footballs in an actual game where big contact is going/could happen happen is different tho, and could definitely be caused by the year off imo. Feels like a mental condition from not playing last year, and I don’t think it’d be there if he had, but maybe you disagree.

It's definitely mental. That's sort of what the yips is. Psychological and motor skill functions that prevent you from performing a task that you used to be able to do with no issues. The concern for me is, that stuff sometimes isn't corrected. Hopefully it will be, but right now, he's got some serious issues with dropping the football, and it's been there for months.

[AussieMate]

There's no excuses for the drops he's had, though. Year off should have nothing to do with it. Unless of course he literally wasn't catching footballs at all in that time. Catching a pass right in your hands, when you are standing still isn't "rust" IMO. Especially with an entire off season program. Seems more like the yips, is what he has.

Catching footballs with a friend tossing you the ball, versus catching footballs in an actual game where big contact is going/could happen happen is different tho, and could definitely be caused by the year off imo. Feels like a mental condition from not playing last year, and I don’t think it’d be there if he had, but maybe you disagree.

It's definitely mental. That's sort of what the yips is. Psychological and motor skill functions that prevent you from performing a task that you used to be able to do with no issues. The concern for me is, that stuff sometimes isn't corrected. Hopefully it will be, but right now, he's got some serious issues with dropping the football, and it's been there for months.

can be a compounding thing as well, Chase was at his best when he didn't have to "think" about catching the ball. After so much time off he is a little rusty and drops a ball, no biggie, but then he starts to overthink his catching of the next ball, drops another....... I'm still confident of him turning it around but the mental side of this stuff does interest me. I didn't think Amari Cooper had many drops in college (I could be remembering wrong here) but damn did it take off once in the NFL.

[FantasyFreak]

Catching footballs with a friend tossing you the ball, versus catching footballs in an actual game where big contact is going/could happen happen is different tho, and could definitely be caused by the year off imo. Feels like a mental condition from not playing last year, and I don’t think it’d be there if he had, but maybe you disagree.

It's definitely mental. That's sort of what the yips is. Psychological and motor skill functions that prevent you from performing a task that you used to be able to do with no issues. The concern for me is, that stuff sometimes isn't corrected. Hopefully it will be, but right now, he's got some serious issues with dropping the football, and it's been there for months.

can be a compounding thing as well, Chase was at his best when he didn't have to "think" about catching the ball. After so much time off he is a little rusty and drops a ball, no biggie, but then he starts to overthink his catching of the next ball, drops another....... I'm still confident of him turning it around but the mental side of this stuff does interest me. I didn't think Amari Cooper had many drops in college (I could be remembering wrong here) but damn did it take off once in the NFL.

Personal life stuff may be getting to him, too, combined with the pressure (perhaps self imposed to some degree) of being a top 5 pick and the expectations of starting off hot, after his college teammate did last year. The time off stuff I don't really buy, TBH. Kenneth Gainwell has been the most targeted back in Eagles camp, and has been targeted in pre-season quite often, and haven't seen or heard an issue with him dropping passes. I remember Coop was hit and miss with the Raiders, and he really did have some issues that appeared to be upstairs, as he was just dropping passes he didn't used to at Bama, no doubt.

[killer_of_giants]

if he tries to catch them with one hand he probably gets less drops.

[TheNuts]

They took this guy in the first round. Why will teams never learn?

[Jigga94]

They took this guy in the first round. Why will teams never learn?

At 5 overall. When they have their franchise QB coming back from major injury and could've taken OL or traded down and received a haul.