Mike Strachan...hype or real deal?

[Cameron Giles]

Your right coaches wouldn’t care about breakout ages and divisions, but they’re a pretty good indication of the talent level.

College players that dominate at a younger age than their peers against better competition are more likely to succeed in the NFL - seems reasonable.

The hit rate for day 3 wide receivers is minuscule, my money probably isn’t on the 24 year old div 2 rookie.

Take a pick and use it as a throw in in another trade for a better player imo, the NFL isn’t a developmental league.

Correct. There's certainly a scenario where Strachan overachieves and becomes a legitimately good WR, but from our view...it's largely luck. Teams have no incentive to care about the development of a 7th round pick or undrafted player unless they just set the world.

There will be another couple of late round or undrafted players every year who get good coachspeak. The overwhelming majority of those players won't go on to do anything of note. One of them might actually become Victor Cruz or Marques Colston. Good luck guessing who that is.

Using your methodology, you never give yourself a chance to roster those guys. I’d rather pay close attention to actual play than to dogmatically following a regimen that would see those guys on my opponents’ rosters.

You're not really reading what I'm saying, because I've already twice said that rostering him is fine. End of bench stash, we all do it.

What I'm saying is explaining why you sell those players, even if it's for unexciting and small returns like a 3rd. I'd rather pay attention to the historical odds than hope that this is the time that I have the correct 7th round or undrafted WR who is going to hit.

[murphysxm]

Correct. There's certainly a scenario where Strachan overachieves and becomes a legitimately good WR, but from our view...it's largely luck. Teams have no incentive to care about the development of a 7th round pick or undrafted player unless they just set the world.

There will be another couple of late round or undrafted players every year who get good coachspeak. The overwhelming majority of those players won't go on to do anything of note. One of them might actually become Victor Cruz or Marques Colston. Good luck guessing who that is.

Using your methodology, you never give yourself a chance to roster those guys. I’d rather pay close attention to actual play than to dogmatically following a regimen that would see those guys on my opponents’ rosters.

You're not really reading what I'm saying, because I've already twice said that rostering him is fine.

What I'm saying is reasoning why you sell those players, even if it's for unexciting returns like a 3rd. I'd rather pay attention to the historical odds than assume that every undrafted WR who has a decent offseason is going to become relevant.

I could be wrong, but I think BB's point is you lose any chance of rostering this kind of player as they excel. I would trade 10 3 round picks for 1 Coltson or AB or pick the rare player that hits. Both sides have risks and strategies, just different approaches

[Cameron Giles]

Using your methodology, you never give yourself a chance to roster those guys. I’d rather pay close attention to actual play than to dogmatically following a regimen that would see those guys on my opponents’ rosters.

You're not really reading what I'm saying, because I've already twice said that rostering him is fine.

What I'm saying is reasoning why you sell those players, even if it's for unexciting returns like a 3rd. I'd rather pay attention to the historical odds than assume that every undrafted WR who has a decent offseason is going to become relevant.

I could be wrong, but I think BB's point is you lose any chance of rostering this kind of player as they excel. I would trade 10 3 round picks for 1 Coltson or AB or pick the rare player that hits. Both sides have risks and strategies, just different approaches

But again...you have no way of really knowing who that player is. The most stable strategy by far is selling for small returns. You may miss out on Victor Cruz one year, but more times than not you will be right. Your profit will be so high that it won't matter.

Adam Thielen's career timeline:

Undrafted
Signed a three-year deal with Minnesota as an UDFA
Cut
Signed to practice squad
Promoted
20 catches in his first two seasons
Third year breakout of a 69/967/5 season.

That happened in a span of three years. Again, if you have a feel for that type of luck from our view, then more power to you, but there is literally nothing that foreshadows it.

[Cameron Giles]

Yeah that is why it is fine, imho, to do both. IE you use the majority of your roster spots for players whose odds you believer are most likely to succeed. But you leave a spot or 2 (depending on league size) for guys you believe in every year just in case (and determine when to cut bait). As we all know, you cannot hit a HR if you do not swing - but at the same time the majority of pitches you swing at should be in the strike zone.

But regardless you cannot own a Cruz or Thielen if you do not take the time to bet on the occasional long shot you have interest in - well at least not at the cheap cost - you can always buy them later for a lot more I suppose.

In any case there are always tiebreakers that can come into play. If Strachan was on say the Bengals or the Steelers would there be as much interest - doubtful. Talent can trump situation when pedigree is involved, but when dealing with players like Strachan situation is huge in terms of opportunity.

Again....I'm not saying to not roster long shots. We all do it. Strachan is clearly worth a roster spot at this time and I thought he looked fine in the game I saw.

I'm saying that trading hype like him off coachspeak for small returns is one of the easiest ways to add small wins to your team. Yes, every now and then, you will miss out on Cruz or Colston, or whoever. But, more times than not, you will get ahead, because those small assets can sweeten other deals and make your team better steadily each season.

There's no science to the hits, but there is a science to the misses...and those misses are overwhelming.

[murphysxm]

There's no science to the hits, but there is a science to the misses...and those misses are overwhelming.

I have not used more than a 5th round pick for him in a rookie draft or a free FA pickup, how would that miss be overwhelming?

[Cameron Giles]

There's no science to the hits, but there is a science to the misses...and those misses are overwhelming.

I have not used more than a 5th round pick for him in a rookie draft or a free FA pickup, how would that miss be overwhelming?

The misses are the dirt low chances of a 7th round pick or UDFA becoming anything relevant.

If you drafted him in the 5th and someone offers you a 3rd...congratulations. You are winning at dynasty. Take the win and move onto the next undrafted/waiver wire hype.

[Straycatz2]

If you drafted him in the 5th and someone offers you a 3rd...congratulations. You are winning at dynasty. Take the win and move onto the next undrafted/waiver wire hype.

That's the whole point in why many view these forums. To find hidden gems that league mates may not know about and flip them for profit or hope they can actually be used for depth.

Not sure why ppl are dogging on him since he's basically free and can probably be flipped for more without risk. If he had 4th round draft capital + his athleticism + his hype, he wouldn't be free.

Many still keep Hilton on their roster despite knowing he's probably going to drop off a cliff and no one is going to offer any value for him. But MS could offer Preston Williams type of return at his peak.

[Plank]

ughh... I've been monitoring him for awhile, but this thread is making me antsy.

Would you guys cut Brian Hill or Keke Coutee for him?

I was hoping to hold on to them to see Coutee's role and if Hill can be backup (I'm not a Henry owner, but still like to stash those guys at end of my roster)

Yes x2

Yes x3 ..

[Bronco Billy]

Yeah that is why it is fine, imho, to do both. IE you use the majority of your roster spots for players whose odds you believer are most likely to succeed. But you leave a spot or 2 (depending on league size) for guys you believe in every year just in case (and determine when to cut bait). As we all know, you cannot hit a HR if you do not swing - but at the same time the majority of pitches you swing at should be in the strike zone.

But regardless you cannot own a Cruz or Thielen if you do not take the time to bet on the occasional long shot you have interest in - well at least not at the cheap cost - you can always buy them later for a lot more I suppose.

In any case there are always tiebreakers that can come into play. If Strachan was on say the Bengals or the Steelers would there be as much interest - doubtful. Talent can trump situation when pedigree is involved, but when dealing with players like Strachan situation is huge in terms of opportunity.

Again....I'm not saying to not roster long shots. We all do it. Strachan is clearly worth a roster spot at this time and I thought he looked fine in the game I saw.

I'm saying that trading hype like him off coachspeak for small returns is one of the easiest ways to add small wins to your team. Yes, every now and then, you will miss out on Cruz or Colston, or whoever. But, more times than not, you will get ahead, because those small assets can sweeten other deals and make your team better steadily each season.

There's no science to the hits, but there is a science to the misses...and those misses are overwhelming.

That’s right. There is no science to hits. There is only observation and gathering evidence.

This isn’t advocating picking up every late round and udfa player with the hope of having 1 or 2 break through. This is determining which guys have highly desirable characteristics but have dropped significantly for a reason.

Strachan is a great case in point. Tremendous physical attributes and athleticism, outstanding production at his level of play, and tape shows he has some developed receiving skills. He dropped because he was a Dll player and because he didn’t have a 2020 season when all Dll schools stopped playing football because of COVID, and because of his age. That’s reason for you to dismiss him completely. That reason for me to be intrigued.

So a little legwork in January and February put this guy on the radar over a whole bunch of other players likely to either go very late or be UDFAs. Then he does end up getting drafted to a team that has enough room in its WR corps that it’s more likely he’ll get some opportunity in OTAs and TC. That makes him a guy that I will burn a 6th-8th round pick on in our FF draft.

Now we get to see film of him competing against NFL level players as well as getting feedback from others observing him. It’s way more than just coachspeak that you allude to. We can see him matched up against players who will actually start in regular season NFL games and he’s consistently getting wins against them in multiple ways. He’s beating hard corners and gap coverage. He’s using his body to shield. He’s running by CBs. He’s sinking his hips and making tight cuts that give him 2 yds of separation - all against proven starters or 1st round picks. Feedback from beat writers with their TC film clips and feedback from teammates supports the coachspeak - he’s not just flashing, he’s making these plays regularly day in and day out. He’s developed consistency in his play. Then you get feedback from guys like Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, and Chad Johnson and he’s caught their attention. Then he starts getting reps with the first string offense.

So a guy like me is at the point where there’s no way I’m trading out my 2021 7th round selection for a 2022 3rd round unknown. Not with that body of supporting evidence. You don’t sell off what is now a potential Colston or Rod Smith. Sure, he still might fail and could end up with no meaningful FF impact - just like that future 2nd rounder that you used Strachan and 2 or 3 other trades to get - but I’ve got a large body of evidence that indicates that he might be the real deal, unlike that 2022 2nd rounder that you made all those trades to finally acquire.

If I’m wrong, all it’s cost me is a past 7th round pick and the time used to investigate him - which I enjoy doing anyhow. Worst case it cost me that 2022 2nd rounder when I didn’t trade him away when I could have given up him and other unknown assets to acquire in hope I strike it rich on an unknown next year. But if you’re wrong, you’ve lost any chance of acquiring a meaningful FF asset that is now improving my team that I’m going to use against you in league play for the next few years, or you’re going to have to give me some other meaningful asset to get him that again I’ll use against you in league play.

It’s just a matter of choice how we acquire these assets. I like to do the research and try to mine the diamond in the piles of crap. You choose to try to acquire them later through trade after they’ve proven themselves and you’re forced to give up something else for them.

I’m fairly certain that your methodology of horse trading is just as enjoyable to you as my method of investigation and asset mining is to me. Obviously I like my way better, but it doesn’t make it superior to yours, nor does it make your methodology superior to mine.

[Rondalebaby]

I’m pretty sure Chad Johnson and Steve Smith have anointed every rookie WR to lace a boot the last few years lol their praise means nothing.

He toasted Horn in a single random 1 v 1, a second for a player with his profile is daylight robbery.

[Rondalebaby]

Yeah that is why it is fine, imho, to do both. IE you use the majority of your roster spots for players whose odds you believer are most likely to succeed. But you leave a spot or 2 (depending on league size) for guys you believe in every year just in case (and determine when to cut bait). As we all know, you cannot hit a HR if you do not swing - but at the same time the majority of pitches you swing at should be in the strike zone.

But regardless you cannot own a Cruz or Thielen if you do not take the time to bet on the occasional long shot you have interest in - well at least not at the cheap cost - you can always buy them later for a lot more I suppose.

In any case there are always tiebreakers that can come into play. If Strachan was on say the Bengals or the Steelers would there be as much interest - doubtful. Talent can trump situation when pedigree is involved, but when dealing with players like Strachan situation is huge in terms of opportunity.

Again....I'm not saying to not roster long shots. We all do it. Strachan is clearly worth a roster spot at this time and I thought he looked fine in the game I saw.

I'm saying that trading hype like him off coachspeak for small returns is one of the easiest ways to add small wins to your team. Yes, every now and then, you will miss out on Cruz or Colston, or whoever. But, more times than not, you will get ahead, because those small assets can sweeten other deals and make your team better steadily each season.

There's no science to the hits, but there is a science to the misses...and those misses are overwhelming.

This.

[Bronco Billy]

I’m pretty sure Chad Johnson and Steve Smith have anointed every rookie WR to lace a boot the last few years lol their praise means nothing.

I’m pretty sure that’s not the case, but if you can show me otherwise lol it would be appreciated.

He toasted Horn in a single random 1 v 1, a second for a player with his profile is daylight robbery.

You’re right right up to the point where you’re wrong. And his resume to date is a bit more extensive than that, not that I’d expect you to know that.

[cazzie33]

^^^
With Bronco Billy on this one !

[jman3134]

I tend to do things the BB way, but I also flip the script occasionally when a player doesn't pass the "eye" test. Sell on hype. For me, because I have been in contention for a long time (and most of my league is trade averse b/c they are afraid they will be on the "losing" side), the only young talent I can acquire is end of the round picks. However, I tend to trade my draft picks away in season to acquire assets at injury ridden positions, perpetually playing for this year. As such, it makes 0 sense for me to trade what might be an in season asset for a future pick, which contributes 0 to me winning this year. Plus, an asset in hand is always better than an unknown.

[Cameron Giles]

That’s right. There is no science to hits. There is only observation and gathering evidence.

This isn’t advocating picking up every late round and udfa player with the hope of having 1 or 2 break through. This is determining which guys have highly desirable characteristics but have dropped significantly for a reason.

Strachan is a great case in point. Tremendous physical attributes and athleticism, outstanding production at his level of play, and tape shows he has some developed receiving skills. He dropped because he was a Dll player and because he didn’t have a 2020 season when all Dll schools stopped playing football because of COVID, and because of his age. That’s reason for you to dismiss him completely. That reason for me to be intrigued.

So a little legwork in January and February put this guy on the radar over a whole bunch of other players likely to either go very late or be UDFAs. Then he does end up getting drafted to a team that has enough room in its WR corps that it’s more likely he’ll get some opportunity in OTAs and TC. That makes him a guy that I will burn a 6th-8th round pick on in our FF draft.

And I think this is a fair assessment of it. Like I said earlier, from what I saw watching the game, he looked fine and is someone who is a more than acceptable stash at the end of rosters.

Now we get to see film of him competing against NFL level players as well as getting feedback from others observing him. It’s way more than just coachspeak that you allude to. We can see him matched up against players who will actually start in regular season NFL games and he’s consistently getting wins against them in multiple ways. He’s beating hard corners and gap coverage. He’s using his body to shield. He’s running by CBs. He’s sinking his hips and making tight cuts that give him 2 yds of separation - all against proven starters or 1st round picks. Feedback from beat writers with their TC film clips and feedback from teammates supports the coachspeak - he’s not just flashing, he’s making these plays regularly day in and day out. He’s developed consistency in his play. Then you get feedback from guys like Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, and Chad Johnson and he’s caught their attention. Then he starts getting reps with the first string offense.

All of these things can be true, but it doesn't mean he's going to become a fantasy relevant player in the short window he has to become one. It does mean that he belongs in the NFL though. Like I said, if you are a 7th round or UDFA, teams have no incentive to care about your development unless you come out guns blazing and set the world on fire. Otherwise, they are going to bring in players who will push you down the depth chart.

So a guy like me is at the point where there’s no way I’m trading out my 2021 7th round selection for a 2022 3rd round unknown. Not with that body of supporting evidence. You don’t sell off what is now a potential Colston or Rod Smith. Sure, he still might fail and could end up with no meaningful FF impact - just like that future 2nd rounder that you used Strachan and 2 or 3 other trades to get - but I’ve got a large body of evidence that indicates that he might be the real deal, unlike that 2022 2nd rounder that you made all those trades to finally acquire.

This is where you lose me.

Every UDFA who flashes in training camp does not have the potential to be Colston, Smith, or Cruz. You're getting a few inches and taking a mile. Just like Zach Pascal didn't have the potential to be Rod Smith three years ago when he was a 24-year-old UDFA rookie for the Colts. Showing you might belong in the NFL doesn't mean = next anomaly upside.

I'm not going to tell you how to play dynasty. You're free to play how you want. I'm only saying that sometimes people are too quick to label dream upside scenarios for players that don't warrant it. Because of that overvaluation, you miss out on small wins that can help you sweeten deals every single offseason. I'm not saying trade him for a 3rd and draft a rookie a year from now. Draft picks are just simply stable and steady, and the hype of 7th round WRs is not.

Strachan has looked fine; I just don't see some rare or abnormal set of circumstances, skills, or reception that is different from what we've seen in the past with hype late round prospects. If someone offers me a 3rd for him right now, I take it. If I miss out on some historical anomaly, then fine, but if I make that same decision every single offseason, the odds are in my favor to be right.