Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:37 pm
ArrylT wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:44 pm
Yeah that is why it is fine, imho, to do both. IE you use the majority of your roster spots for players whose odds you believer are most likely to succeed. But you leave a spot or 2 (depending on league size) for guys you believe in every year just in case (and determine when to cut bait). As we all know, you cannot hit a HR if you do not swing - but at the same time the majority of pitches you swing at should be in the strike zone.
But regardless you cannot own a Cruz or Thielen if you do not take the time to bet on the occasional long shot you have interest in - well at least not at the cheap cost - you can always buy them later for a lot more I suppose.
In any case there are always tiebreakers that can come into play. If Strachan was on say the Bengals or the Steelers would there be as much interest - doubtful. Talent can trump situation when pedigree is involved, but when dealing with players like Strachan situation is huge in terms of opportunity.
Again....I'm not saying to not roster long shots. We all do it. Strachan is clearly worth a roster spot at this time and I thought he looked fine in the game I saw.
I'm saying that trading hype like him off coachspeak for small returns is one of the easiest ways to add small wins to your team. Yes, every now and then, you will miss out on Cruz or Colston, or whoever. But, more times than not, you will get ahead, because those small assets can sweeten other deals and make your team better steadily each season.
There's no science to the hits, but there is a science to the misses...and those misses are overwhelming.
That’s right. There is no science to hits. There is only observation and gathering evidence.
This isn’t advocating picking up every late round and udfa player with the hope of having 1 or 2 break through. This is determining which guys have highly desirable characteristics but have dropped significantly for a reason.
Strachan is a great case in point. Tremendous physical attributes and athleticism, outstanding production at his level of play, and tape shows he has some developed receiving skills. He dropped because he was a Dll player and because he didn’t have a 2020 season when all Dll schools stopped playing football because of COVID, and because of his age. That’s reason for you to dismiss him completely. That reason for me to be intrigued.
So a little legwork in January and February put this guy on the radar over a whole bunch of other players likely to either go very late or be UDFAs. Then he does end up getting drafted to a team that has enough room in its WR corps that it’s more likely he’ll get some opportunity in OTAs and TC. That makes him a guy that I will burn a 6th-8th round pick on in our FF draft.
Now we get to see film of him competing against NFL level players as well as getting feedback from others observing him. It’s way more than just coachspeak that you allude to. We can see him matched up against players who will actually start in regular season NFL games and he’s consistently getting wins against them in multiple ways. He’s beating hard corners and gap coverage. He’s using his body to shield. He’s running by CBs. He’s sinking his hips and making tight cuts that give him 2 yds of separation - all against proven starters or 1st round picks. Feedback from beat writers with their TC film clips and feedback from teammates supports the coachspeak - he’s not just flashing, he’s making these plays regularly day in and day out. He’s developed consistency in his play. Then you get feedback from guys like Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, and Chad Johnson and he’s caught their attention. Then he starts getting reps with the first string offense.
So a guy like me is at the point where there’s no way I’m trading out my 2021 7th round selection for a 2022 3rd round unknown. Not with that body of supporting evidence. You don’t sell off what is now a potential Colston or Rod Smith. Sure, he still might fail and could end up with no meaningful FF impact - just like that future 2nd rounder that you used Strachan and 2 or 3 other trades to get - but I’ve got a large body of evidence that indicates that he might be the real deal, unlike that 2022 2nd rounder that you made all those trades to finally acquire.
If I’m wrong, all it’s cost me is a past 7th round pick and the time used to investigate him - which I enjoy doing anyhow. Worst case it cost me that 2022 2nd rounder when I didn’t trade him away when I could have given up him and other unknown assets to acquire in hope I strike it rich on an unknown next year. But if you’re wrong, you’ve lost any chance of acquiring a meaningful FF asset that is now improving my team that I’m going to use against you in league play for the next few years, or you’re going to have to give me some other meaningful asset to get him that again I’ll use against you in league play.
It’s just a matter of choice how we acquire these assets. I like to do the research and try to mine the diamond in the piles of crap. You choose to try to acquire them later through trade after they’ve proven themselves and you’re forced to give up something else for them.
I’m fairly certain that your methodology of horse trading is just as enjoyable to you as my method of investigation and asset mining is to me. Obviously I like my way better, but it doesn’t make it superior to yours, nor does it make your methodology superior to mine.