Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

In no way is he an elite WR prospect in the TE slot. He's an elite TE prospect. He's simply not a guy that would be an elite WR on the outside. That's a disservice to actual elite WR prospects.

Why not? He has age adjusted production in the SEC combined with his athleticism that would make him a phenomenal wr prospect.

Because he's not an elite WR prospect. That was the claim, and he's not. He hasn't played out there nearly enough to make this claim. He's a Tight End, and was defended as such, playing that position. Hypotheticals about what he could have done at another position doesn't make him an elite prospect at a position he didn't play.

I agree with the Evans body size and speed comp. They don't play the same position, though. I think Evans and Pitts are different types of players, though I do think the size and speed are similar.

I see what you're saying, and it has merit. One point though- he was not always guarded like a TE. He saw a lot of Horn and Surtain in games against SC and Bama, for example. His usage wasn't all that different from Justin Jefferson's Jr year (Pitts lined up more on the outside his Jr year than Jefferson did, if 4for4 is correct).
You are right that he has a lot less snaps outside and in the slot to judge him vs most top wr prospects, and I don't really think he'll be used outside much. Similar y the Calvin comments (thanks for clarifying btw), I just think we're in uncharted territory, and he's as close a comp to top WRs as he is former top TEs, and so I think you can draw from both when considering his range of outcomes.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

I just sold him in a competitive TE premium for Waller and Diggs.

Holy moly! I'm a huge Pitts fan, but I'd say Waller vs Pitts is 100% team dependant. Diggs on top is crazy. Nice haul!

[YouMightDieTryin]

I'm a huge Pitts believer and drafted him wherever I could, but the hype is insane at this point. This is bigger than people paying more than 3 firsts to get the 1.01 whn barkley was available.

I just sold him in a competitive TE premium for Waller and Diggs.
The other owner - the defending champion who knows what he's doing - had approached me since draft day with various offers and I told him it would have to be a huge overpay. I turned down a few different variations before this one.

I bring it up also because once the trade went through I was told by more than one owner in that league that they believe I made a mistake making that deal. Unreal.

Who sometimes knows what he's doing.

You destroyed this trade. Good for you. Your league mates who told you that was a bad move are in a cult at this point.

I am one of the biggest fans of Pitts around but that was pretty easy. Waller and Diggs are fantastic players.

Waller does turn 29 in September and Diggs turns 28 in November but both should still have years of production left.

In 7 years when Waller and Diggs are 36 and 35, respectively, you'll be very sad you made this trade. Pitts will be 27 and in his prime of owning slow LBs and topping small DBs! Seriously, nice trade.

[sugbear65]

I haven’t read through all the posts. But I will say, if Pitts is not a top five tight end in a couple years, and for a long stretch of years, then I may have to hang up my fantasy hat. I don’t think I’ve ever seen, in my opinion, a safer rookie prospect. Andrew luck is the only other player that comes to mind, where you just know that barring catastrophe, they are going to be elite. I wouldn’t hesitate to use a mid round first on him, and if I could get him with a late round first I would consider it a steal. In rebuild I would be actively targeting him.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I haven’t read through all the posts. But I will say, if Pitts is not a top five tight end in a couple years, and for a long stretch of years, then I may have to hang up my fantasy hat. I don’t think I’ve ever seen, in my opinion, a safer rookie prospect. Andrew luck is the only other player that comes to mind, where you just know that barring catastrophe, they are going to be elite. I wouldn’t hesitate to use a mid round first on him, and if I could get him with a late round first I would consider it a steal. In rebuild I would be actively targeting him.

I like Pitts. The only player I’ve drafted ahead of him in any rookie draft this off-season was Lawrence in a SuperFlex 6 point passing TD league. I’ve traded up to draft him.

Having said that, as good as he is, is any TE really that “safe?”

Vernon Davis, OJ Howard, Kellen Winslow Jr. l, it seems like even though they eventually perform, none of these top TE prospects have lived up to their hype. while virtually all of the top TEs in recent history (Gronk, Kelce, Kittle, Graham, Gates- basically everybody except Tony Gonzalez) were relatively unheralded prospects. Forgive me- I’m just doing this off the top of my head and probably missed some guys.

Again, I like Pitts. He’s the best fantasy TE prospect I have ever seen. I’m just wondering if maybe as a community we’re so bad at evaluating this position that we shouldn’t be talking about any of them as though they’re extraordinarily safe.

[smbkrypt24]

I haven’t read through all the posts. But I will say, if Pitts is not a top five tight end in a couple years, and for a long stretch of years, then I may have to hang up my fantasy hat. I don’t think I’ve ever seen, in my opinion, a safer rookie prospect. Andrew luck is the only other player that comes to mind, where you just know that barring catastrophe, they are going to be elite. I wouldn’t hesitate to use a mid round first on him, and if I could get him with a late round first I would consider it a steal. In rebuild I would be actively targeting him.

I think the difference people are speaking about when it comes to Pitts is that he is being taken at 1.01-1.03 in 1 QB leagues and not a mid 1st. I like Pitts myself and do not have a problem taking him very early.

[sugbear65]

You guys bring up fair points, and like I said, I didn’t read previous comments. I can see how using a top 3 pick on TE would be scary. I could pull that trigger based on my stated belief in him, but that is very high compared to where we traditionally draft TEs.
And yeah there is a decent list of other “generational” prospects coming out at TE that didn’t pan out. It is a tough position to evaluate. All I’m saying is I’ve never seen a prospect that I, personally, viewed as fool proof as Pitts. He’s Calvin Johnson playing TE. Sure I could be wrong, again it’s just my viewpoint. I just wanted to put my thoughts out there on record too!

[DJB]

I haven’t read through all the posts. But I will say, if Pitts is not a top five tight end in a couple years, and for a long stretch of years, then I may have to hang up my fantasy hat. I don’t think I’ve ever seen, in my opinion, a safer rookie prospect. Andrew luck is the only other player that comes to mind, where you just know that barring catastrophe, they are going to be elite. I wouldn’t hesitate to use a mid round first on him, and if I could get him with a late round first I would consider it a steal. In rebuild I would be actively targeting him.

Only way he is not a unanimous top 5 dynasty TE is God forbid an injury.

[FantasyFreak]

I haven’t read through all the posts. But I will say, if Pitts is not a top five tight end in a couple years, and for a long stretch of years, then I may have to hang up my fantasy hat. I don’t think I’ve ever seen, in my opinion, a safer rookie prospect. Andrew luck is the only other player that comes to mind, where you just know that barring catastrophe, they are going to be elite. I wouldn’t hesitate to use a mid round first on him, and if I could get him with a late round first I would consider it a steal. In rebuild I would be actively targeting him.

Only way he is not a unanimous top 5 dynasty TE is God forbid an injury.

Or he gets into off field trouble, or doesn't apply himself, gets his money, and checks out, thinks he can get by just on talent etc. I know it may seem like I am ragging on him, but I'm not. I like him a lot. I think there's a good chance he's a really elite NFL TE, but I don't know him, like all of us. Injury is not the only reason he won't be a top 5 TE. Just like any other high end prospect entering the league. I really hope he doesn't do any of those things, because I like to watch extremely talented players at their best. Nobody should be hanging up their Fantasy hat on a guy they don't know, if he doesn't live up to the hype, for any reason, injury, off field stuff (on a guy who doesn't have any know red flags in that area) etc. We can't predict that stuff.

[mild]

Lots of good talk going on in this thread. Figured I'd weigh in. I'm team Pitts... here's my case for him succeeding in the NFL (seeing as that somehow seems to be in question)

Firstly, this is a great video breakdown of him - there is some great stuff in there about how advanced he is already with his releases. It's even got a nice clickbait title - "Kyle Pitts is a Superstar - but NOT as a TE". I recommend this as a companion piece.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms_Y3F6tmaM

We're talking about a guy that is simply off-the-charts as an athlete. His catch radius, hand size, and movement skills at 250lbs are the stuff of unicorns. When people say "he's Calvin Johnson" - this is what they're referring to. Obviously it's not 1:1 accurate - he is not literally the spitting image of Megatron - but he is also most assuredly a complete freak, and not "just" at his position. Here's a decent twitter thread putting his measureables in historical context:
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/138 ... 05028?s=20

Apart from the fact that we're talking about a 20-year-old unicorn who has already developed advanced WR releases and (probably) can't be covered by most CB's (let alone LB's) - lets talk about who has specifically made a bet on him, and why.

Terry Fontenot is in his first year as GM. He may never get another pick this high again. If this pick busts, he will wear it in perpetuity for the rest of his professional career (and doubly so if he is wrong about Fields, Matt Ryan's remaining shelf life, Mac Jones, and whatever else we feel like citing). Whilst we can't say for sure that he knows what he was doing at this point, we can be assured that this decision would have only been reached after many hours of intense scrutiny and research. Based on conversations I've heard him have with the media, I don't think he is a rube. We can also surmise - thanks to post-draft reports about other GM's wanting Pitts - that the League told us what they thought of Pitts as a prospect when he was made the first skill position drafted, and the highest drafted TE of the modern era. And yet: Nobody blinked at this pick. The whole league wanted him.

This pick, the Julio Jones trade, keeping Matt Ryan and not re-setting at QB - none of this happens without Arthur Smith explicitly telling Fontenot that he can make it work, and that this is the best way forward. If you happen to be high on Arthur Smith as a head coach (I very much am) then you are very much paying attention when he OK's the trading away of your HoF number 1 WR, and drafts a TE to help fill that target/production void.

Early reports out of camp are that Pitts is rarely lining up in the same place twice. He's out wide, in the slot, in line, and moving pre-snap. This is excellent news - and is confirming the thesis of the original video I posted. If Arthur Smith could be said to have one defining trait - it's that, in his time at Tennessee - he was incredibly adept at leveraging whatever personnel he had. Anyone can call 25 Derrick Henry dive bombs down the middle. Not anyone can design an entire scheme leveraged around it, creating one of the best play-action offenses in the league and turning Ryan Tannehill into a bonafide all-star.

He's going to use what he has available - and what he has, is Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts... and a dream. Choo choo... all aboard.

[FantasyFreak]

Lots of good talk going on in this thread. Figured I'd weigh in. I'm team Pitts... here's my case for him succeeding in the NFL (seeing as that somehow seems to be in question)

Firstly, this is a great video breakdown of him - there is some great stuff in there about how advanced he is already with his releases. It's even got a nice clickbait title - "Kyle Pitts is a Superstar - but NOT as a TE". I recommend this as a companion piece.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms_Y3F6tmaM

We're talking about a guy that is simply off-the-charts as an athlete. His catch radius, hand size, and movement skills at 250lbs are the stuff of unicorns. When people say "he's Calvin Johnson" - this is what they're referring to. Obviously it's not 1:1 accurate - he is not literally the spitting image of Megatron - but he is also most assuredly a complete freak, and not "just" at his position. Here's a decent twitter thread putting his measureables in historical context:
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/138 ... 05028?s=20

Apart from the fact that we're talking about a 20-year-old unicorn who has already developed advanced WR releases and (probably) can't be covered by most CB's (let alone LB's) - lets talk about who has specifically made a bet on him, and why.

Terry Fontenot is in his first year as GM. He may never get another pick this high again. If this pick busts, he will wear it in perpetuity for the rest of his professional career (and doubly so if he is wrong about Fields, Matt Ryan's remaining shelf life, Mac Jones, and whatever else we feel like citing). Whilst we can't say for sure that he knows what he was doing at this point, we can be assured that this decision would have only been reached after many hours of intense scrutiny and research. Based on conversations I've heard him have with the media, I don't think he is a rube. We can also surmise - thanks to post-draft reports about other GM's wanting Pitts - that the League told us what they thought of Pitts as a prospect when he was made the first skill position drafted, and the highest drafted TE of the modern era. And yet: Nobody blinked at this pick. The whole league wanted him.

This pick, the Julio Jones trade, keeping Matt Ryan and not re-setting at QB - none of this happens without Arthur Smith explicitly telling Fontenot that he can make it work, and that this is the best way forward. If you happen to be high on Arthur Smith as a head coach (I very much am) then you are very much paying attention when he OK's the trading away of your HoF number 1 WR, and drafts a TE to help fill that target/production void.

Early reports out of camp are that Pitts is rarely lining up in the same place twice. He's out wide, in the slot, in line, and moving pre-snap. This is excellent news - and is confirming the thesis of the original video I posted. If Arthur Smith could be said to have one defining trait - it's that, in his time at Tennessee - he was incredibly adept at leveraging whatever personnel he had. Anyone can call 25 Derrick Henry dive bombs down the middle. Not anyone can design an entire scheme leveraged around it, creating one of the best play-action offenses in the league and turning Ryan Tannehill into a bonafide all-star.

He's going to use what he has available - and what he has, is Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts... and a dream. Choo choo... all aboard.

I am a believer in Pitts, just not willing to pay the price. I will say, to the parts in bold, that it was Julio that wanted out, not the Falcons wanting to move him, from everything I have seen. In terms of resetting at QB, the Falcons were going to take Lance, from a lot of indications, if he fell. He didn't, and at that point, they weren't sold on who was left, over Pitts. Ryan also has a ton left on his contract for 2 years, I believe.

I'm also not a believer that he can separate vs top NFL corners. I do think his catch radius at times may make that a mute point, though. So it depends what you mean by covered. I think he can certainly out jump them on well placed passes, but I don't think he's going to consistently beat NFL corners with separation. It will be interesting to see how D's deal with him.

[Sriracha]

We're talking about a guy that is simply off-the-charts as an athlete. His catch radius, hand size, and movement skills at 250lbs are the stuff of unicorns. When people say "he's Calvin Johnson" - this is what they're referring to. Obviously it's not 1:1 accurate - he is not literally the spitting image of Megatron - but he is also most assuredly a complete freak, and not "just" at his position. Here's a decent twitter thread putting his measureables in historical context:
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/138 ... 05028?s=20

There’s some miscommunication going on here. TEs are some of the freakiest athletes in the world— the fact that he’s not in Megatron’s weight class as an athlete has nothing to do with comparing him to other TEs.

As an athlete regardless of position the comp just does not hold water.

[mild]

I am a believer in Pitts, just not willing to pay the price. I will say, to the parts in bold, that it was Julio that wanted out, not the Falcons wanting to move him, from everything I have seen. In terms of resetting at QB, the Falcons were going to take Lance, from a lot of indications, if he fell. He didn't, and at that point, they weren't sold on who was left, over Pitts. Ryan also has a ton left on his contract for 2 years, I believe.

I'm also not a believer that he can separate vs top NFL corners. I do think his catch radius at times may make that a mute point, though. So it depends what you mean by covered. I think he can certainly out jump them on well placed passes, but I don't think he's going to consistently beat NFL corners with separation. It will be interesting to see how D's deal with him.

We are probably splitting hairs here - Julio didn't want out so much as his contract (and their timetable to win) did. The Falcons had to reset their cap sheet one way or the other... even with Julio gone, you can see here how hard up against it they are for this year and next. They are in cap hell, some big re-signings pending, and with not a lot else to show for it:
https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/atlanta-falcons/

We are also splitting hairs on the Lance pick. Yes, if he had fallen, they take him. He didn't fall. They still took a TE as the first non-QB in the draft, and the highest TE drafted of the modern era. I maintain: this is as serious a "nuts-on-the-table" call as you can make as a 1st year GM.

He doesn't have to be separated from his defender any more than Mike Evans does. We are talking about a contested catch monster with extremely sure hands (no charted drops in 2020) who was hand-picked to be schemed up by one of the rising offensive minds of the NFL. It's exciting.
https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/ ... 15936?s=20

I did say "most" CB's... but heck, don't take my word for it - SI's beat writer had this to say:

Goodall: This is a tough question because during his time at Florida, I saw Pitts do things that tight ends can only imagine doing. It's nearly impossible to cover Pitts one on one, I would think only a handful of defenders such as Jalen Ramsey or Derwin James would be capable of manning him up. At his size he's obviously a contested-catch weapon, but Pitts legitimately runs routes like a receiver and owns incredibly nimble footwork through his releases, both when flexed out as a receiver and from a three-point stance.

[FantasyFreak]

I am a believer in Pitts, just not willing to pay the price. I will say, to the parts in bold, that it was Julio that wanted out, not the Falcons wanting to move him, from everything I have seen. In terms of resetting at QB, the Falcons were going to take Lance, from a lot of indications, if he fell. He didn't, and at that point, they weren't sold on who was left, over Pitts. Ryan also has a ton left on his contract for 2 years, I believe.

I'm also not a believer that he can separate vs top NFL corners. I do think his catch radius at times may make that a mute point, though. So it depends what you mean by covered. I think he can certainly out jump them on well placed passes, but I don't think he's going to consistently beat NFL corners with separation. It will be interesting to see how D's deal with him.

We are probably splitting hairs here - Julio didn't want out so much as his contract (and their timetable to win) did. The Falcons had to reset their cap sheet one way or the other... even with Julio gone, you can see here how hard up against it they are for this year and next. They are in cap hell, some big re-signings pending, and with not a lot else to show for it:
https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/atlanta-falcons/

We are also splitting hairs on the Lance pick. Yes, if he had fallen, they take him. He didn't fall. They still took a TE as the first non-QB in the draft, and the highest TE drafted of the modern era. I maintain: this is as serious a "nuts-on-the-table" call as you can make as a 1st year GM.

He doesn't have to be separated from his defender any more than Mike Evans does. We are talking about a contested catch monster with extremely sure hands (no charted drops in 2020) who was hand-picked to be schemed up by one of the rising offensive minds of the NFL. It's exciting.
https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/ ... 15936?s=20

I did say "most" CB's... but heck, don't take my word for it - SI's beat writer had this to say:

Goodall: This is a tough question because during his time at Florida, I saw Pitts do things that tight ends can only imagine doing. It's nearly impossible to cover Pitts one on one, I would think only a handful of defenders such as Jalen Ramsey or Derwin James would be capable of manning him up. At his size he's obviously a contested-catch weapon, but Pitts legitimately runs routes like a receiver and owns incredibly nimble footwork through his releases, both when flexed out as a receiver and from a three-point stance.

I don't agree with Goodall. I think plenty of NFL corners can blanket him 1 on 1. I just don't think many/any can out jump him. NFL DB's are another level. I don't think he is "nimble" enough to shake them for pure separation. The fact he mentions Derwin James as 1 of 2 DB's that can cover him tells me a lot. I think he knows the names of a handful of DB's, the big name ones, and he spit those out. Derwin James is nowhere near the 2nd best 1 on 1 cover man in the league. I understand he's 6ft 2, 215, but I really think he's doing top NFL DB's a disservice, here. Any DB out jumping him will be an issue. So covering definitely includes that, per se. I am just not sure he's going to deal with NFL corners as easily as some think. I am also curious how they deploy him and Hurst. I think Pitts may play slot quite a bit. Would make sense. He can avoid real press coverage, and operate with a clean release.

[mild]

I don't agree with Goodall. I think plenty of NFL corners can blanket him 1 on 1. I just don't think many/any can out jump him. NFL DB's are another level. I don't think he is "nimble" enough to shake them for pure separation. The fact he mentions Derwin James as 1 of 2 DB's that can cover him tells me a lot. I think he knows the names of a handful of DB's, the big name ones, and he spit those out. Derwin James is nowhere near the 2nd best 1 on 1 cover man in the league. I understand he's 6ft 2, 215, but I really think he's doing top NFL DB's a disservice, here. Any DB out jumping him will be an issue. So covering definitely includes that, per se. I am just not sure he's going to deal with NFL corners as easily as some think. I am also curious how they deploy him and Hurst. I think Pitts may play slot quite a bit. Would make sense. He can avoid real press coverage, and operate with a clean release.

All good, and more than fair. It's going to be great to watch! We're just going to have to wait and see.

Regardless, I got in for what I thought was a fair price, and I'm excited for him. If those that gambled on him get an 800 yard season out of him for his rookie year then the hype will be justified, and we'll be looking at the TE1 this time next offseason. I legitimately think he can hit that number, based on what I scouted, and based on the lack of weapons outside Ridley in ATL.

If he falls flat, then he will join a very long list of TE disappointments... and still be ranked as a top 5 dynasty TE next offseason

With a prospect like this, at a position like Tight End - sometimes the juice is worth the squeeze.