Cam Akers Official Thread

[Cameron Giles]

The reality is there is a very good chance Akers returns just fine. Surgery techniques are much better then even a few years ago and rehab is as well.

It may take more than a year but that is more about how he rehabs.

Kevin Durant was out longer than a year but is back to being one of the best if not the best basketball player on the planet and his sport is probably way harder when consider the constant various movements required.

Dallas just signed Malik Hooker who just had surgery in November and is expected to compete for a starting job this season.

Going back 7-11 years to look at data when medical procedure techniques are doubling about every 7 years or so is not really realistic.

No doubt there is risk but it isn't like it once was in the recent past.

Time and Desire will matter a lot with Akers.

Additionally, Emmanuel Sanders tore an Achilles in December and was back with no issues the start of the following season. That was impressive.

You can't just dismiss a study that looked at every player who suffered the injury during a recent span, and then prop up a few people who have recovered well from it. That's not an objective view. I even posted recent examples of NBA players who've torn their Achilles and Durant is an outlier.

Achilles injuries event recently in the NBA, NFL, and MLB are still hindering careers.

Yes, there is a possibility that Akers can recover from this, but I don't understand dismissing the significance of the injury and how it has factually derailed careers historically and recently. It's not probable or even favorable that anyone can return to form from it. Players do return to the sport, but their effectiveness often declines.

[Ice]

@ Cameron Giles

Like my first sentence stated....The reality is there is a very good chance Akers returns just fine. Surgery techniques are much better then even a few years ago and rehab is as well.

Further down.....No doubt there is risk but it isn't like it once was in the recent past.

So the very words "Good Chance" and "No Doubt there is Risk"

Should give any reader an indication that I am not dismissing anything.

I will say studies from a years ago will most likely be different than today given surgical improvements. After all at one point the consensus was the earth was flat.

I did not disagree with that statistical study but it is dated which was the point.

No clue how, when, or if he comes back better than ever but the odds are good he will IMO.

[FiremanEd]

Sounds like Akers will be on all your rosters. I hope it works out for you. It would be good to see him recover as you anticipate.

[Jigga94]

mack should give us some answers this season. if he looks sprite then there's hope for akers.

haha, arian foster. wasn't he about 35 years old when he did his Achilles?

I have consistently seen that Mack should give proof of modern medicine on achilles injuries. I see a huge problem in that Mack will see very little carries this year as Taylor will see the majority of the carries and Hines receiving role. Mack will not see significant work so it will be very hard to see the impact. It will be easy to see if he is completely ineffective, but being able to tell if he is the same RB from when he would have lost his role to Taylor anyways will be hard to determine.

Comparing Mack to Akers is wrong. Akers was expected to be the lead back. Mack is definitely not.

Spot on. If JT hadn't been drafted by IND, then maybe it would be comparable.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Additionally, Emmanuel Sanders tore an Achilles in December and was back with no issues the start of the following season. That was impressive.

I've no idea what type of player Akers will be when he returns from injury. Hopefully he can regain form at some point, but how long that will take is anyone's guess. I agree that Sanders' return was impressive.

Also impressive was the Russian gymnast competing earlier in the week 3 months after his Achilles repair. While I imagine he was probably under some quality pain meds (if allowed by the IOC) he still had to land all his skills. I was almost expecting him to re-injure himself at some point, but it seems he made it through the competition OK.

Maybe evaluating current injury recovery based on recovery rates from year's past isn't as predictive as some would like. Maybe it is? But I won't guess either way, since I'm not a medical professional with any experience in the field.

[Sriracha]

What I'm trying to get at here is that you really can't say that Akers would be an outlier if he returns to form because we do not have an established baseline due to low sample size.

Just because we have nothing to look back at and point to a successful recovery does not mean that Akers chances of returning to form are low; It means that we can't confidently forecast that he will.

Summarizing a successful Akers return as "dumb luck" is overly dramatic.

By definition, it would still be an outlier. Achilles injuries are not high volume injuries to begin with. It's not an ankle sprain or a hamstring pull. We likely won't even reach 50 or so RBs with torn Achilles for many, many years.

We not only look at the low volume for position, but the increased volume across the sport. And the larger sample shows a clear decline in value for players who tear their Achilles in the NFL.

3 words: "Small Sample Trap"

Even including every NFL player, the total referenced in the study was 76 players with wildly different circumstances (date of surgery, age of player, position played, quality of player). That is still a low sample size.

What we have right now is uncertainty in Akers return. That's not anyone's fault -- it's just the result of Achilles ruptures being a rare NFL injury.

If someone right now wanted to plant their flag and say that Akers will return from the Achilles injury, and still go on to be the player he was possibly on pace to being, it would purely be a hunch. There's nothing I can point at to even reach that conclusion.

Agreed; Conversely, if someone were to plant a flag and say that Akers will not return from the Achilles injury as a franchise RB they'd also be going out on a limb or coming to premature conclusions based on insufficient data.

[FantasyFreak]

Well, my Groupme is on the fritz, and I can't chat about football with anyone, so I decided to pop in, and see what was up.

The Akers news sucks. I was trying to acquire him all off season, but the price just kept going up and up, with the twitter echo chamber no doubt helping it's cause. At that point I started viewing him like I did Miles Sanders last off season. A guy that I liked, who had become overvalued, based on a small sample size of production late in the season. His startup ADP, IMO wasn't worth it, nor what it would cost to get him, at a certain point, as much as I tried.

In terms of his recovery, I agree that medicine has improved, but trying to compare different positions in football, let alone different sports, is pretty tough to do. Durant was also a world class player at his sport, while Akers was not, so that comparison is just invalid IMO. Akers was a late 2nd round pick, who was raw, but with some physical gifts, but not a player like Durant, in his respective sport, not even close.

In terms of Akers Dynasty value, I have a few thoughts. First off, some owners are in denial, based on twitter polls I've seen, as to his value. Some thinking he should fetch CEH, or Jacobs, and backs of that caliber, and that's just not realistic, unless you happen to have a rube in your league you can fleece.

Akers Dynasty value, sadly, has peaked. It will never recover to the level it was this offseason. In terms of his value in rookie picks, I can't see a good argument on why he even holds his original rookie pick value, which was early/mid first in 1 QB leagues, and mid first in SF leagues, from what I saw last year. He will be in a similar situation he was as a rookie, having to compete for a role, but being 2 years older, and having a career threatening injury to work through.

Akers has now lost 2 years of his prime for a RB, with relatively little to show for it. He will be 23, coming off a major injury, which he will have been rehabbing, with no opportunity to gain experience and work on his craft, as a result. He plays at a position that turns over so quickly. Things can change in an instant, just ask Gurley owners from a few years ago. The Rams will almost certainly address the position in FA/draft next year. They spent two 3rds on Henderson, and a year later, were fine using a late 2nd on Akers. With The uncertainty of Akers, and little depth, the Rams will be in the market for a RB next off season. It's just not realistic to think they will sit back and hope for the best case scenario with Akers.

Akers lost his window for being a true FF difference maker, sadly. A ton of his value was tied to this year, and the assumption he'd be the 3 down workhorse in a McVay/Stafford offense. It really sucks for him. I think he may still be able to carve out a role in committee of some sort, if his recovery goes well enough, next year, but the career arc of what could have been was totally destroyed, and it obviously won't be the same as what many, including myself had hoped.

[CGW]

Well, my Groupme is on the fritz, and I can't chat about football with anyone, so I decided to pop in, and see what was up.

The Akers news sucks. I was trying to acquire him all off season, but the price just kept going up and up, with the twitter echo chamber no doubt helping it's cause. At that point I started viewing him like I did Miles Sanders last off season. A guy that I liked, who had become overvalued, based on a small sample size of production late in the season. His startup ADP, IMO wasn't worth it, nor what it would cost to get him, at a certain point, as much as I tried.

In terms of his recovery, I agree that medicine has improved, but trying to compare different positions in football, let alone different sports, is pretty tough to do. Durant was also a world class player at his sport, while Akers was not, so that comparison is just invalid IMO. Akers was a late 2nd round pick, who was raw, but with some physical gifts, but not a player like Durant, in his respective sport, not even close.

In terms of Akers Dynasty value, I have a few thoughts. First off, some owners are in denial, based on twitter polls I've seen, as to his value. Some thinking he should fetch CEH, or Jacobs, and backs of that caliber, and that's just not realistic, unless you happen to have a rube in your league you can fleece.

Akers Dynasty value, sadly, has peaked. It will never recover to the level it was this offseason. In terms of his value in rookie picks, I can't see a good argument on why he even holds his original rookie pick value, which was early/mid first in 1 QB leagues, and mid first in SF leagues, from what I saw last year. He will be in a similar situation he was as a rookie, having to compete for a role, but being 2 years older, and having a career threatening injury to work through.

Akers has now lost 2 years of his prime for a RB, with relatively little to show for it. He will be 23, coming off a major injury, which he will have been rehabbing, with no opportunity to gain experience and work on his craft, as a result. He plays at a position that turns over so quickly. Things can change in an instant, just ask Gurley owners from a few years ago. The Rams will almost certainly address the position in FA/draft next year. They spent two 3rds on Henderson, and a year later, were fine using a late 2nd on Akers. With The uncertainty of Akers, and little depth, the Rams will be in the market for a RB next off season. It's just not realistic to think they will sit back and hope for the best case scenario with Akers.

Akers lost his window for being a true FF difference maker, sadly. A ton of his value was tied to this year, and the assumption he'd be the 3 down workhorse in a McVay/Stafford offense. It really sucks for him. I think he may still be able to carve out a role in committee of some sort, if his recovery goes well enough, next year, but the career arc of what could have been was totally destroyed, and it obviously won't be the same as what many, including myself had hoped.

Don't care what all you said but welcome back!

[TimeWillTell]

FF is back!!

[Bot101]

Well I sold for the best deal I could get. Gave Akers and got Gaskin and a 2023 2nd. Id rather not gamble on the risk.

I’d take that also. One year out, who knows how long until effective, if ever

Well my primary concerns were the fact I have a top 2 team for title contention, losing Akers was a blow to that. But I took Gaskin away from my primary competitor for said title, but his RB core is at the point you think about selling in dynasty (Henry, Cook, Aaron Jones). Hes mentioned blowing it up after this season, so if he does that 2nd will be early in a 10 teamer.

[Bronco Billy]

Well, my Groupme is on the fritz, and I can't chat about football with anyone, so I decided to pop in, and see what was up.

The Akers news sucks. I was trying to acquire him all off season, but the price just kept going up and up, with the twitter echo chamber no doubt helping it's cause. At that point I started viewing him like I did Miles Sanders last off season. A guy that I liked, who had become overvalued, based on a small sample size of production late in the season. His startup ADP, IMO wasn't worth it, nor what it would cost to get him, at a certain point, as much as I tried.

In terms of his recovery, I agree that medicine has improved, but trying to compare different positions in football, let alone different sports, is pretty tough to do. Durant was also a world class player at his sport, while Akers was not, so that comparison is just invalid IMO. Akers was a late 2nd round pick, who was raw, but with some physical gifts, but not a player like Durant, in his respective sport, not even close.

In terms of Akers Dynasty value, I have a few thoughts. First off, some owners are in denial, based on twitter polls I've seen, as to his value. Some thinking he should fetch CEH, or Jacobs, and backs of that caliber, and that's just not realistic, unless you happen to have a rube in your league you can fleece.

Akers Dynasty value, sadly, has peaked. It will never recover to the level it was this offseason. In terms of his value in rookie picks, I can't see a good argument on why he even holds his original rookie pick value, which was early/mid first in 1 QB leagues, and mid first in SF leagues, from what I saw last year. He will be in a similar situation he was as a rookie, having to compete for a role, but being 2 years older, and having a career threatening injury to work through.

Akers has now lost 2 years of his prime for a RB, with relatively little to show for it. He will be 23, coming off a major injury, which he will have been rehabbing, with no opportunity to gain experience and work on his craft, as a result. He plays at a position that turns over so quickly. Things can change in an instant, just ask Gurley owners from a few years ago. The Rams will almost certainly address the position in FA/draft next year. They spent two 3rds on Henderson, and a year later, were fine using a late 2nd on Akers. With The uncertainty of Akers, and little depth, the Rams will be in the market for a RB next off season. It's just not realistic to think they will sit back and hope for the best case scenario with Akers.

Akers lost his window for being a true FF difference maker, sadly. A ton of his value was tied to this year, and the assumption he'd be the 3 down workhorse in a McVay/Stafford offense. It really sucks for him. I think he may still be able to carve out a role in committee of some sort, if his recovery goes well enough, next year, but the career arc of what could have been was totally destroyed, and it obviously won't be the same as what many, including myself had hoped.

Can’t quit us, huh?

Glad to see you back

[Ice]

Sounds like Akers will be on all your rosters. I hope it works out for you. It would be good to see him recover as you anticipate.

Actually that would be a big no. I wasn't a fan of his coming out of college and while he did play well late last season running he was no threat at all in the passing game.

Doesn't mean the odds of making a full recovery at his age are any less.

Welcome Back FF !

BTW Tendons are not something one can make bigger and significantly stronger by working out. The size of a tendon is pretty standard between normal people and athletes. There is quite a bit of recent research that certain antibiotics like Cipro and Levaquin can be significant factors in Achilles ruptures.

[Anteaters]

Well I sold for the best deal I could get. Gave Akers and got Gaskin and a 2023 2nd. Id rather not gamble on the risk.

That is a very good deal.
12 months from now, anyone still holding Akers and trying to trade him will look back at this deal and say "THAT WAS A GREAT DEAL!!!"

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Offered Fornette for Akers.

Rejected.

[Cameron Giles]

3 words: "Small Sample Trap"

Even including every NFL player, the total referenced in the study was 76 players with wildly different circumstances (date of surgery, age of player, position played, quality of player). That is still a low sample size.

What we have right now is uncertainty in Akers return. That's not anyone's fault -- it's just the result of Achilles ruptures being a rare NFL injury.

But that's the thing. Because an Achilles injury is low volume, a large case study of recent years will never exist. Even in the NBA, there's been 5 Achilles injuries in the last 6 years. So while low sample sizes are not undisputed evidence, you're dismissing it completely while knowing there will never be a large, modern case study. We will only have small sample sizes to help build opinions with.

I'm by no means trying to convince you that this is a open and shut case, but the fact that there is a proven history of Achilles injuries derailing careers is relevant at bare minimum. The small sample size also means that the medical community doesn’t have ample data on surgical & rehab outcomes for an NFL RB. Of course Akers will be working with some of the best doctors in the world, but having a rare injury, especially at a position that requires a ton of planting and cutting while getting hit frequently is not a good combination.

Agreed; Conversely, if someone were to plant a flag and say that Akers will not return from the Achilles injury as a franchise RB they'd also be going out on a limb or coming to premature conclusions based on insufficient data.

There will never be sufficient data. They would at least be presenting an opinion with some form of practical data. The Achilles tendon functions the same regardless of player size or athleticism. So while this data isn't perfect, and you won't find an apples to apples comparison for position, draft pedigree or upside, it's the best look into what can happen.