Basically that is correct.Sriracha wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:33 pm I'm a bit confused with where you're going with this?
Are you trying to argue that draft capital is a good indicator for TE1 fantasy TEs?
I don't think anyone is disputing that higher draft capital TEs tend to have higher floors.. but what does that floor really mean? ... most people just don't care about TEs outside of elite producers because they are relatively meaningless to your win percentage.
Draft capital just hasn't been a good indicator for TE superstars for well over a decade. Maybe Hock and Fant change that, but in recent memory TE has been the least draft capital reliant fantasy producers.
I suspect it's because of the college game moving to more spread offenses giving NFL scouting departments a lot less NFL parallels to compare these prospects with.. but who knows.
The floor & the likelyhood of the player having actual fantasy relevance for a TE drafted in the 1st round is very safe.
Lets refer to this thread for a moment:
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=157772&p=1430788&hi ... 7#p1430788
You'll see that a 1st round WR here is classified as being successful if they have 2 1000 yard seasons. That may seem like a high barrier but in actually it is a little mis-leading in the sense that you can have a WR3 with a 1000 yard season.
Mike Williams had a 1000 yard season in 2019, His fantasy rank in ppr? 39.
Desean Jackson, Odell Beckham, Vincent Jackson as well had 1000 yard seasons while being in the 24-36 WR3 range.
DJ Moore in 2020 had almost 1200 yards, but was WR 25
And the odds of a 1st round WR basically reaching 2 WR 3 seasons?
36% approximately as shown. Now that was through to 2015, while the 2016/17/19 1st Round WR classes sort of lowered that percentage while the 2018 & 20 classes have somewhat returned it.
But either way 1st round WR pedigree gives you a 36-40% hit rate for a couple of WR2-3 seasons. And that is the high end - as you go down the draft pedigree chart, the later the round the less the percentage of hits. There always going to be hits at all draft rounds, even the occasional UDFA. But the frequency of hit rate is low.
We just had what some would classify as the strongest rookie class in a long time, and possibly a WR class better than 2014.
The # of WRs that have had a successful 1000 yard season? 1.
That is 1 out of 6.
Now obviously Lamb, Jeudy, Aiyuk are all on track to reach that Year 2. But assuming it is a lock - well that is like assuming Barkley was a lock for 3 straight RB1 seasons. Unfortunately injuries & unexpected results happen.
Nothing in life is guaranteed. Upside & actually reaching their potential / ceiling - that is going to depend on health, usage, situation & other factors.
But despite that, I have just shown that the hit rate, at least from a floor perspective, guaranteeing you a TE1 season, is almost 90%
In other words owning a 1st round pedigree TE is 3x safer in terms of will they reach a benchmark of success,.
If you look closer, 8 of the 30 TEs profiled have even had a minimum of 1 top 3 season. Thats a shade over 25%. So not only is the TE going is going to likely have a very safe floor - their odds of reaching their ceiling potential is also pretty decent.
Oh and 1 other note. Again if you look closely - ALMOST all the TEs had a long career. Like the shortest was 5 years. Most hit 10 years. And several knocked on the 14-16 door.
So basically safe floor, long career, decent odds of reaching elite ceiling for at least 1 season. Hmmm probably a bad idea that we should try and hold onto 1 of these players.
I am not claiming Kyle Pitts or any previous 1st Round TE is the greatest fantasy asset out there. I am simply noting that these are, in the long term (which is what dynasty is supposed to be right?) very safe assets to own because of their pedigree.
And that is in ppr format, not te premium scoring or 2 TE start requirements.