My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
With his current ADP, there's no way I'll be selecting him in any of my rookie drafts.
Javonte Williams won't be a full on bust but I wouldn't be shocked to see him selected in the third round, fourth round, or even later in the NFL draft. I'd be a little shocked/disappointed to see him taken in the top 5 of all running backs. I thinking the NFL draft will push him back to where he belongs in all dynasty drafts: late second or third rounder at best.
He lacks talent. He lacks speed. He put up good numbers in the ACC but the NFL is literally two whole notches above that. Williams had a lot of success running outside, but his lack of speed behind the LOS will make him more one-dimensional, which doesn't bode well for his future.
Nope, I'm out on this kid. I think he'll be similar to Jamaal Williams for his career. I don't trust him to be any better than that.
My over-valued for 2020 was Jonathan Taylor, and I said the only thing that could change my mind is if he went to a power system as a backup, which happened so I did indeed change my mind prior to the draft. With Williams that is not the case. I don't care who drafts him or what system he goes to, I will not be joining his fan club.
EDIT: Williams ran with a playing weight of 220-225 during his time at UNC. He obviously played slower than his counterpart Michael Carter. Then during his pro day, Williams weighed in at 212 and ran a 4.56 while Carter ran a 4.54. Did Williams drop weight just to have a better 40 time?
Also, here is the latest startup draft data regarding Williams vs other veteran fantasy players. IMO this is madness. Do people really think Williams has more upside than Aiyuk?
EDIT2: I had to rewatch everything I made notes on and I thought I was wrong. His inside runs are definitely above average, as is his vision and feet. Then I watch him try to take a pitch or a sweep and he constantly gets brought down. He just doesn't have the speed to go outside and his hips never point up field. He's an inside runner with excellent hands. He's not worthy of a mid first pick imo.
EDIT3: I love his inside running. I LOVE it. It's more than above average. It's good to very good. He has a lot of quick moves and enough power to get the job done. Plus he can catch. He's be a starter somewhere, but I don't love his long term outlook (over 4 years).
EDIT4: I watched his film again my opinion of him just went down tbh. He leans into his cuts. He can't even make the simple moves to help make a defender miss. He takes too many hits, especially low ones as players try to take this big man down. He plowed through defenders a lot on film but he won't be able to do that in the NFL. I just can't get on board.
Check out this still image below. It's an option play that appears to be disguised as yet another option play (?? No idea what UNC is doing here). But all Williams has to do is run in the open space and use his blockers, so he elects to keep it, which is a solid choice imo. Look at what he sees and tell me you disagree that he should keep it:
But what happens is utter chaos. He can't outrun the middle linebacker, despite the linebacker being 5 yards away when he originally decides to attack, and running diagonally at Williams while Williams basically runs horizontally to the sideline. There's no way a backer should catch up to him this easily. Williams finally rounds the corner and LEANS into his cut -- another bad sign -- chops his feet uselessly before being tackled easily by the corner.
Agree or Disagree? Please share!
Javonte Williams won't be a full on bust but I wouldn't be shocked to see him selected in the third round, fourth round, or even later in the NFL draft. I'd be a little shocked/disappointed to see him taken in the top 5 of all running backs. I thinking the NFL draft will push him back to where he belongs in all dynasty drafts: late second or third rounder at best.
He lacks talent. He lacks speed. He put up good numbers in the ACC but the NFL is literally two whole notches above that. Williams had a lot of success running outside, but his lack of speed behind the LOS will make him more one-dimensional, which doesn't bode well for his future.
Nope, I'm out on this kid. I think he'll be similar to Jamaal Williams for his career. I don't trust him to be any better than that.
My over-valued for 2020 was Jonathan Taylor, and I said the only thing that could change my mind is if he went to a power system as a backup, which happened so I did indeed change my mind prior to the draft. With Williams that is not the case. I don't care who drafts him or what system he goes to, I will not be joining his fan club.
EDIT: Williams ran with a playing weight of 220-225 during his time at UNC. He obviously played slower than his counterpart Michael Carter. Then during his pro day, Williams weighed in at 212 and ran a 4.56 while Carter ran a 4.54. Did Williams drop weight just to have a better 40 time?
Also, here is the latest startup draft data regarding Williams vs other veteran fantasy players. IMO this is madness. Do people really think Williams has more upside than Aiyuk?
EDIT2: I had to rewatch everything I made notes on and I thought I was wrong. His inside runs are definitely above average, as is his vision and feet. Then I watch him try to take a pitch or a sweep and he constantly gets brought down. He just doesn't have the speed to go outside and his hips never point up field. He's an inside runner with excellent hands. He's not worthy of a mid first pick imo.
EDIT3: I love his inside running. I LOVE it. It's more than above average. It's good to very good. He has a lot of quick moves and enough power to get the job done. Plus he can catch. He's be a starter somewhere, but I don't love his long term outlook (over 4 years).
EDIT4: I watched his film again my opinion of him just went down tbh. He leans into his cuts. He can't even make the simple moves to help make a defender miss. He takes too many hits, especially low ones as players try to take this big man down. He plowed through defenders a lot on film but he won't be able to do that in the NFL. I just can't get on board.
Check out this still image below. It's an option play that appears to be disguised as yet another option play (?? No idea what UNC is doing here). But all Williams has to do is run in the open space and use his blockers, so he elects to keep it, which is a solid choice imo. Look at what he sees and tell me you disagree that he should keep it:
But what happens is utter chaos. He can't outrun the middle linebacker, despite the linebacker being 5 yards away when he originally decides to attack, and running diagonally at Williams while Williams basically runs horizontally to the sideline. There's no way a backer should catch up to him this easily. Williams finally rounds the corner and LEANS into his cut -- another bad sign -- chops his feet uselessly before being tackled easily by the corner.
Agree or Disagree? Please share!
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2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
Let me get comfortable for this one.
Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
RB1 confirmed.
Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
I like his vision, balance, and ability to break tackles. If used right, he can be successful, like the dreaded David Montgomery.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
Well here we go again. At least you aren’t hedging like you did last year on Taylor when you called him the most overrated RB in the draft. And like last year, I believe that you are wrong. Williams has a complete 3 down game in all facets of the skills required for NFL RBs and his 40 time has been resolved to a 4.57, which is just fine for a guy with his size and running style. The only thing I see lacking in his game is breakaway speed to pull away in the open.
Needless to say, I’m all in on him and think he’ll be the best RB in this class. You want overrated? You should have picked Entienne. IMO.
Needless to say, I’m all in on him and think he’ll be the best RB in this class. You want overrated? You should have picked Entienne. IMO.
Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
Nice.
I’m actually more interested in your arguments for the backs you have ahead of him. Couple guys starting to grow on me, but I still have Williams the clear number 3. I am big on draft capital though, so I will change my tune if you’re right about him dropping to the 5th, for instance
I’m actually more interested in your arguments for the backs you have ahead of him. Couple guys starting to grow on me, but I still have Williams the clear number 3. I am big on draft capital though, so I will change my tune if you’re right about him dropping to the 5th, for instance
main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
12 team. 2019 champ, 2020 runner up, ‘21 3rd
start 2SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT
QB: T Lawrence, K Cousins, R Wilson, Z Wilson
RB: K Walker, T Ettiene, JK Dobbins, D Gore, J Hasty, D Johnson, L Rountree
WR: JJ, AJB, A Cooper, Juju, C Kirk, J Dotson, N Westbrook-Ikhine, I McKenzie
TE. T Kelce, Pitts, Albert O, D Parham, J O’Shaunessy
1.03, 1.11, 2.02, 2.09
Extra 24 1st
12 team. 2019 champ, 2020 runner up, ‘21 3rd
start 2SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT
QB: T Lawrence, K Cousins, R Wilson, Z Wilson
RB: K Walker, T Ettiene, JK Dobbins, D Gore, J Hasty, D Johnson, L Rountree
WR: JJ, AJB, A Cooper, Juju, C Kirk, J Dotson, N Westbrook-Ikhine, I McKenzie
TE. T Kelce, Pitts, Albert O, D Parham, J O’Shaunessy
1.03, 1.11, 2.02, 2.09
Extra 24 1st
Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
His forty time was “resolved”? I must’ve missed that..Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:18 am Well here we go again. At least you aren’t hedging like you did last year on Taylor when you called him the most overrated RB in the draft. And like last year, I believe that you are wrong. Williams has a complete 3 down game in all facets of the skills required for NFL RBs and his 40 time has been resolved to a 4.57, which is just fine for a guy with his size and running style. The only thing I see lacking in his game is breakaway speed to pull away in the open.
Needless to say, I’m all in on him and think he’ll be the best RB in this class. You want overrated? You should have picked Entienne. IMO.
A combine adjusted 40 time of 4.63 puts a damper on his upside
Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
As with almost everyone else I have Javonte as a top 3 back in this class and really like him as a prospect in this class.
I also absolutely think he’s being overrated. The most common comparison I see is that people are claiming he’s just like Nick Chubb, which is ridiculous. Nick Chubb is the best or at worst a top 3 runner in the NFL. Javonte is certainly talented, but is nowhere as nuanced as a rusher as Nick Chubb is.
I also absolutely think he’s being overrated. The most common comparison I see is that people are claiming he’s just like Nick Chubb, which is ridiculous. Nick Chubb is the best or at worst a top 3 runner in the NFL. Javonte is certainly talented, but is nowhere as nuanced as a rusher as Nick Chubb is.
Dynasty Team 1:
10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex
QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Breece Hall, Swift, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jamarr Chase, DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Travis Kelce
2023 Picks: 1.4, 1.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.6, 3.8
Dynasty Team 2:
10 Man, Half PPR, Double Flex
QB: Tua
RB: Barkley , Mixon, Javonte, Jacobs, CEH
WR: AJB, Tyreek, Lamb, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Kittle
2022 Picks: 1.5, 1.6, 2.3
2023 Picks: 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd
10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex
QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Breece Hall, Swift, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jamarr Chase, DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Travis Kelce
2023 Picks: 1.4, 1.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.6, 3.8
Dynasty Team 2:
10 Man, Half PPR, Double Flex
QB: Tua
RB: Barkley , Mixon, Javonte, Jacobs, CEH
WR: AJB, Tyreek, Lamb, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Kittle
2022 Picks: 1.5, 1.6, 2.3
2023 Picks: 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
40 times have been “normalized” here:Sriracha wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:32 pmHis forty time was “resolved”? I must’ve missed that..Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:18 am Well here we go again. At least you aren’t hedging like you did last year on Taylor when you called him the most overrated RB in the draft. And like last year, I believe that you are wrong. Williams has a complete 3 down game in all facets of the skills required for NFL RBs and his 40 time has been resolved to a 4.57, which is just fine for a guy with his size and running style. The only thing I see lacking in his game is breakaway speed to pull away in the open.
Needless to say, I’m all in on him and think he’ll be the best RB in this class. You want overrated? You should have picked Entienne. IMO.
A combine adjusted 40 time of 4.63 puts a damper on his upside
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... view#gid=0
Williams was a state champion on his 4x100 relay team in high school. I’m fairly confident he has enough speed to be able to succeed at the NFL level. He’s not Taylor, but if he fails it won’t be because he’s too slow, and trying to tag him as too slow to play in the NFL is a false narrative.
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
I haven’t seen the Chubb comp yet. I have seen him comped to Leveon Bell, Kareem Hunt, Frank Gore, and Mark Ingram.Kmani6 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:52 pm As with almost everyone else I have Javonte as a top 3 back in this class and really like him as a prospect in this class.
I also absolutely think he’s being overrated. The most common comparison I see is that people are claiming he’s just like Nick Chubb, which is ridiculous. Nick Chubb is the best or at worst a top 3 runner in the NFL. Javonte is certainly talented, but is nowhere as nuanced as a rusher as Nick Chubb is.
Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
what's your ranking this year?
2019 Champion! 2022 Champion!
Team 1: Superflex, Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex WR/TE,1 Sflex
QB:P. Mahomes, R.Tannehill, J.Hurts
RB: E.Elliott,James Robinson, Chris Carson, L.Fournette, T.Etienne , Tony Pollard,hassan haskins,donta foreman, jaylen warren
WR: Justin Jefferson A.J Brown, M.Thomas, Marquise Brown, T.Lockett, skyy moore, romeo doubs, alec pierce Donovan Peoples-Jones, J.Palmer
TE: kyle pitts, juwan johnson,mckitty
2021 Champion!
Team 2: Superflex, Start 1Qb, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex Wr/TE. 1 SFlex, 1 Flex RB/WR/TE
QB: J.Herbert, Z.Wilson, K.Cousins, K.Pickett,K.Mond
RB: J.Taylor, JK Dobbins, N.Harris, N.Hines, G.Edwards, James Cook, J.Ford, Dameon Pierce, P.Strong, D.Foreman (Jermaine Burton Devy)
WR: J.Chase,Garett Wilson , B.Aiyuk, C.Sutton, R.Bateman, G.Davis, M.Hardman,J.Palmer,
TE: D.Waller R.Tonyan, B.Jordan, Cameron Brate, Cade Otton, G.Everett
Team 1: Superflex, Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex WR/TE,1 Sflex
QB:P. Mahomes, R.Tannehill, J.Hurts
RB: E.Elliott,James Robinson, Chris Carson, L.Fournette, T.Etienne , Tony Pollard,hassan haskins,donta foreman, jaylen warren
WR: Justin Jefferson A.J Brown, M.Thomas, Marquise Brown, T.Lockett, skyy moore, romeo doubs, alec pierce Donovan Peoples-Jones, J.Palmer
TE: kyle pitts, juwan johnson,mckitty
2021 Champion!
Team 2: Superflex, Start 1Qb, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex Wr/TE. 1 SFlex, 1 Flex RB/WR/TE
QB: J.Herbert, Z.Wilson, K.Cousins, K.Pickett,K.Mond
RB: J.Taylor, JK Dobbins, N.Harris, N.Hines, G.Edwards, James Cook, J.Ford, Dameon Pierce, P.Strong, D.Foreman (Jermaine Burton Devy)
WR: J.Chase,Garett Wilson , B.Aiyuk, C.Sutton, R.Bateman, G.Davis, M.Hardman,J.Palmer,
TE: D.Waller R.Tonyan, B.Jordan, Cameron Brate, Cade Otton, G.Everett
Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
ETN ran a 4.45 official pro day time... I can’t take that list seriously after it ran with the 4.41 initially reported.Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:57 pm40 times have been “normalized” here:Sriracha wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:32 pmHis forty time was “resolved”? I must’ve missed that..Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:18 am Well here we go again. At least you aren’t hedging like you did last year on Taylor when you called him the most overrated RB in the draft. And like last year, I believe that you are wrong. Williams has a complete 3 down game in all facets of the skills required for NFL RBs and his 40 time has been resolved to a 4.57, which is just fine for a guy with his size and running style. The only thing I see lacking in his game is breakaway speed to pull away in the open.
Needless to say, I’m all in on him and think he’ll be the best RB in this class. You want overrated? You should have picked Entienne. IMO.
A combine adjusted 40 time of 4.63 puts a damper on his upside
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... view#gid=0
Williams was a state champion on his 4x100 relay team in high school. I’m fairly confident he has enough speed to be able to succeed at the NFL level. He’s not Taylor, but if he fails it won’t be because he’s too slow, and trying to tag him as too slow to play in the NFL is a false narrative.
We want these guys to be faster because we’re all starving for RB production... but sometimes there just isnt that much talent at the position in an entire draft class. Weve had entire draft classes of misses before... and the knock on this class prior to the season was the RB depth.
I’m not saying that Javonte can’t have success in the NFL because of his speed... he’s a very physical back with the potential to have a 3 down skill set... but his pro comps right now is basically a less explosive and slower Marion Barber — which is a player you want — but that’s just not where he’s being valued at the moment. We’ve got people so enthused by his running style and highlights that theyre valuing him like Marshawn Lynch who was just a flat out better prospect
Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
I read all the replies, this is my favorite.Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:18 am Well here we go again. At least you aren’t hedging like you did last year on Taylor when you called him the most overrated RB in the draft. And like last year, I believe that you are wrong. Williams has a complete 3 down game in all facets of the skills required for NFL RBs and his 40 time has been resolved to a 4.57, which is just fine for a guy with his size and running style. The only thing I see lacking in his game is breakaway speed to pull away in the open.
Needless to say, I’m all in on him and think he’ll be the best RB in this class. You want overrated? You should have picked Entienne. IMO.
I don't think it's a hedge to say that JT needed to go to a power scheme to be successful, which happened so I dropped my claim. I said the same thing about Miles Sanders & zone schemes but nobody brings that one up. I also said that about Penny, who went to Seattle and they tried to make him something he's not, ruining his career imo. I think it's important for RBs to match the system they are in.
I agree with you that Williams does indeed have a complete 3 down game, but it's pedestrian imo. A 40 time of 4.57 is not that impressive for RBs drafted in this era, and his size isn't that big.... huh, I had to look it up just now. Apparently he was 220-225 for much of his time in college, then dropped to 210-215 for his 40 time / pro day. I think that's another reason I don't love him tbh. That means his 40 time might actually be slower under his normal playing weight. Not good. I saw a backup linebacker from a small school run laterally to chase him down. Not very impressive.
Best RB in the 2021 class? That's quite the flag you're planting there. If that happens you will be a hero in my eyes. I wish you good luck!
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Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
I don't think Williams is the slam dunk pick some have made him out to be. I liked what I saw of him but I think he's a landing spot dependent guy. Unless he lands in am ideal situation with good draft capital, I'd rather spend a premium pick on someone like Bateman or Waddle.
Re: My over-valued rookie RB for 2021? Javonte Williams
The first installment will be posted in a few days, maybe 4-7 days tbh. We have a lot of writers right now.
I think I only have two first-round rated RBs, and a ton in the second and third. Just a lot of average guys imo. Decent players like Williams, but nothing dominant like Etienne or Harris.
This is fair. Good post!MFundercover wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:19 pm I don't think Williams is the slam dunk pick some have made him out to be. I liked what I saw of him but I think he's a landing spot dependent guy. Unless he lands in am ideal situation with good draft capital, I'd rather spend a premium pick on someone like Bateman or Waddle.
ULTIMATE RB GURUs
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!
REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!
REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134
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