Antonio Gibson Rocket Ship - Round 2

[Krypto_King]

Yep, that’s what I’m thinking as well.

Not sure that’s it so much as how teams play defense. Team like Dallas could put 9 in the box and couldn’t stop anyone as an example.

Teams like San Fran are so good with the front 4 they can mix it up.

Rb’s effectiveness with players 6+ is what matters if one wants to research it.

A lot really depends on the match up schedule. Teams also love to blitz teams like the Rams due to weapons so that will clog up the box.

Gibsons light front carry rate (which is 6 or less defenders in the box) is 67%, or #3 in the entire NFL.

How is this calculated? Because if it is strictly vs carries and not snaps or some other weird adjustment, there's just zero chance that is accurate.

[Bronco Billy]

Not sure that’s it so much as how teams play defense. Team like Dallas could put 9 in the box and couldn’t stop anyone as an example.

Teams like San Fran are so good with the front 4 they can mix it up.

Rb’s effectiveness with players 6+ is what matters if one wants to research it.

A lot really depends on the match up schedule. Teams also love to blitz teams like the Rams due to weapons so that will clog up the box.

Gibsons light front carry rate (which is 6 or less defenders in the box) is 67%, or #3 in the entire NFL.

How is this calculated? Because if it is strictly vs carries and not snaps or some other weird adjustment, there's just zero chance that is accurate.

Agreed. Some just seem to throw common sense out the window and attach importance to any stats posted by others without any thought process attached.

[Ruggenater]

Gibsons light front carry rate (which is 6 or less defenders in the box) is 67%, or #3 in the entire NFL.

How is this calculated? Because if it is strictly vs carries and not snaps or some other weird adjustment, there's just zero chance that is accurate.

Agreed. Some just seem to throw common sense out the window and attach importance to any stats posted by others without any thought process attached.

If his average defenders in the box is 6.4 (from the prior page), he must be seeing 6 (or fewer) pretty often... Doesn’t seem all that unlikely to me, and far from “zero chance” it’s accurate.

[stoneghost28]

Its really not a complicated offense for running backs to understand, so this whole "he's raw" thing is overblown IMO.

Hes losing touches to McKissick because his blocking needs to get better and also because the former has been pretty solid. Hopefully at some point he'll take on a bigger role but, even if he doesn't, he has weekly RB2 upside.

He pops on tape, both in the run and pass game. He's good in redzone and can find the end zone. He has the size and all the traits needed to blossom into a real contributer- just needs some time. The real key will be what happens with the rest of the offensive personnel in the offseason. I don't see the Skins replacing him with so many holes to plug, so if the rest of the offense improves, especially at QB, he could ascend to top 10-15 status as soon as next season. That is what you are buying right now. It may never fully pan out but there's just not a lot of young, talented RBs out there with the opportunity that he has that can be had as cheaply.

I think hes a strong buy right now, especially with a couple so so weeks when lots of people were predicting a breakout.

What would you consider a good buying price right now? A 2nd?

I just gave a 2nd + Akers in a league where I had a surplus of picks. I've devalued Akers a lot since May when our rookie draft occurred.

They might bring in a vet to compete with him next year but I sure don't see the Skins spending much money on it or drafting a guy in the first 4 rounds.

He looks far better as a runner than some folks in here are saying. He has the wiggle that adds an extra yard or two on tough runs and has showed a ton of burst and pure speed. And again, the running scheme is not all that complex. His receiving chops are excellent.

He's definitely not a sure thing but I'm saying there's a decent floor right now, a big ceiling, and tons of opportunity in front of him. IMO hes probably the best RB trade target if you're looking for potential growth vs cost to acquire. And yes I'm a Skins fan but I generally avoid their players as much as possible.

Being a Redskins fan + playing in about half of my dynasty leagues with my brother really hurt me with Gibson. I was all set to target the guy in round 2 in rookie drafts after most of my second tier grouping of WR's were gone until my own team drafted him, and then poof, he was gone as an option.

1.Guice was the bell cow, but instead went to jail
2. A.P. was the backup/starter
3. I've been a Love believer because of how spectacular he was in college, stashing him everywhere until the latest IR push.
4. The team went out and signed multiple RB's in the offseason.

To me, those four things combined w/zero belief in my team, meant I was not going to draft him period, in almost any league, especially because my brother, who would draft him in part because he plays for the redskins+ he likes him, was in half of those leagues. So it has been brutal to watch the value that could've been as the clarity of the teams actions became clear (Barber+McKissic+GIbson in retrospect clearly meant they knew more about Guice's issues than the rest of us, and that they didn't probably want to keep AP unless Gibson looked totally out of his depth, I didn't know any of that and assumed the signings and Gibson were about a new regime and camp bodies).

The only smart thing I did was acquire Gibson in 2 of my last 3 rookie drafts out of 12 dynasty leagues (1 thanks to my brother in our 1 duo league), and acquire him in another deadline deal to put my total shares at 2 in dynasty and 1 in an RSO league.

I will add that in season I have divested myself of zero shares of any of the RB's, I've just been adding, period:

CEH: +1 after week 1 (whoops)
Taylor: +1 at the deadline
Akers: +1 at the deadline
Swift: +1 just before season kickoff (DK and Moss for Swift and Diontae)
Gibson: +1 via a deadline deal
Dobbins: +0 (nobody would budge, but I already had him on 8 dynasty teams 1 keeper and 1 RSO team)

The only guys Im concerned with are CEH and Taylor, so for now, my dynasty shares are good:
Dobbins 8
Swift 7
Taylor 6
CEH 5
Akers: 2
Gibson: 2

plus I've got other shares in RSO (Akers 2 shares, Dobbins 1, Gibson 1) and in keeper (Swift/Dobbins/Taylor on that team).


Going to be fun to read the rest of this thread and the Akers thread, I get people jumping off CEH or Taylor, tons of red flags there, but w/the other guys, the issues were circumstantial or peripheral at best and not the players fault for the most part.

[Bronco Billy]

How is this calculated? Because if it is strictly vs carries and not snaps or some other weird adjustment, there's just zero chance that is accurate.

Agreed. Some just seem to throw common sense out the window and attach importance to any stats posted by others without any thought process attached.

If his average defenders in the box is 6.4 (from the prior page), he must be seeing 6 (or fewer) pretty often... Doesn’t seem all that unlikely to me, and far from “zero chance” it’s accurate.

Here’s where common sense comes in. WAS is bottom 5 in the league in passing. Their 2nd best WR is Isaiah Wright with 27 catches on the season. Their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best receiving options are RBs and a TE. So even when they are passing, aside from McLaurin, their best receiving options are coming from near the ball, and there is no reason to send additional outside help to Wright’s side of the field.

So if WAS opponents are playing them, and say they shade McLaurin with the FS and only have 6 in the box, where are the other 1 or 2 guys playing? Standing over by the WAS bench making faces at them? Playing deep middles in the event of a quick kick? It just does not make any sense that opponents are not taking away the run with at least 7 guys committed on D, even if that guy(s) is not technically in the box - which I’d guess he is.

[stoneghost28]

Jacobs > Gibson

Not really looking on point now. Might be true if he was being used properly but him as a raider, and Gibson as a WFT guy, I’m taking Gibson every time.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

I think as startups approach, you won’t be seeing Gibson going ahead of Jacobs.

http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/

[stoneghost28]

I think as startups approach, you won’t be seeing Gibson going ahead of Jacobs.

http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/

I think that’s a mistake but the turf toe issue will probably back your take. 2 years in and Jacobs still isn’t getting enough touches.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

This has not been updated since turf toe. This is a pretty reliable standard for startup ADP produced by a member here and used by many here. To each their own. I’m a fan of both players, especially when the injuries are healed.

[Krypto_King]

How is this calculated? Because if it is strictly vs carries and not snaps or some other weird adjustment, there's just zero chance that is accurate.

Agreed. Some just seem to throw common sense out the window and attach importance to any stats posted by others without any thought process attached.

If his average defenders in the box is 6.4 (from the prior page), he must be seeing 6 (or fewer) pretty often... Doesn’t seem all that unlikely to me, and far from “zero chance” it’s accurate.

hehe "zero chance" was code for "I watched 10 minutes of film to check my prior and have come away willing to bet this point and watch/chart all the rest of his carries to prove I'm right"
I still don't know how DD's stat was calculated but it is just very rare I see 6 or less in the box when I watch Gibson and he hasn't even been playing 3rd down or 2 minute offense snaps when you'd expect this to be the case. Also, "in the box" seems to be about as subjective as "contact" or "broken tackle" any time I've looked into it.

[Pullo Vision]

Seems the rocket ship launched. Where do you put Gibson? How does the Curtis Samuel and Ryan Fitzpatrick signing affect your valuation?

[Ice]

Seems the rocket ship launched. Where do you put Gibson? How does the Curtis Samuel and Ryan Fitzpatrick signing affect your valuation?

Should help on both counts as it should give both LB’s and safeties more to deal with.

I view Gibson as an upside RB1 going forward

[failblazer]

Seems the rocket ship launched. Where do you put Gibson? How does the Curtis Samuel and Ryan Fitzpatrick signing affect your valuation?

Should help on both counts as it should give both LB’s and safeties more to deal with.

I view Gibson as an upside RB1 going forward

From a team building point of view, I don't want Gibson as my RB1. I would rather have a more solidified RB1 and have Gibson as my RB2 because he has the upside to vault into the RB1 range and at that point is a huge advantage. Value wise though, he should absolutely be valued as an RB1.

[Patsfan86]

Do we think any major competition gets brought in for him via the draft? Or is he all set?

[murphysxm]

Do we think any major competition gets brought in for him via the draft? Or is he all set?

Define major? I think they will take a RB for depth, but true competition I don't think will be drafted. He took the ball and ran with it