AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
stoneghost28
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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby stoneghost28 » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:32 pm

Was kind of relieved to see that neither of the two trades I made of my 9 shares last year were bad. I had 9/11 dynasty leagues, stupidly took DJ Moore over him in my one startup last year, even more stupidly had cut him early in '19 for an emergency bye fix thinking there was no way he'd be one of my five keepers (had four top 10 RB's, and 2 top 10 WR's at the time but it was still insanely stupid) to make it 9/12, plus one share in my two RSO leagues, and I reacquired him in that keeper league in a trade. Anyway was relieved to see that my two AJ Brown trades in the offseason were for legit pieces:

I sent him out along with the 3.03 for OJ Howard and JK Dobbins before the rookie draft last spring.

I also sent him out along with the 2.04 for Diontae and the pick I used on Jonathan Taylor.

In both cases my teams badly needed RB's and I was stacked at WR.

I kinda get why so many still have Adams so high (really one of the weirder climbs in recent dynasty history considering where he was in '15), but at the same time, I just find myself wondering why people would have him so high having already seen what has happened to the value of AJ Green and Julio as they got closer and closer to their nadir as prime dynasty assets. If I had Adams I'd trade him in a second if I could get things like DK/AJ Brown+ in compensation. W/o a second thought. It would be insane not too.

I'm just baffled at that. As for Brown himself, I'm happy to have him on 7/12 dynasty team, and 9 of 15 total. Wish I had him on more, but in fairness, there was only 2 other leagues I could've reasonably acquired him where I didn't, so I'm happy that. Just wish he was with a more innovative offense.

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Ice » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:00 pm

stoneghost28 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:32 pm
I kinda get why so many still have Adams so high (really one of the weirder climbs in recent dynasty history considering where he was in '15), but at the same time, I just find myself wondering why people would have him so high having already seen what has happened to the value of AJ Green and Julio as they got closer and closer to their nadir as prime dynasty assets. If I had Adams I'd trade him in a second if I could get things like DK/AJ Brown+ in compensation. W/o a second thought. It would be insane not too.

I'm just baffled at that.
AJ Green is 4.5 years older than D. Adams. Adams just turned 28. Nothing wrong with trading Adams for either of those two but given winning matters if your are contending it wouldn't be very smart to trade away 4-6 points weekly.

I would go younger in a start up but Adams is the best WR in the NFL in the near term and not a player to be discarded easily in his prime. Trading him should be more about situation IMO.
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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:49 pm

Ice wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:00 pm
stoneghost28 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:32 pm
I kinda get why so many still have Adams so high (really one of the weirder climbs in recent dynasty history considering where he was in '15), but at the same time, I just find myself wondering why people would have him so high having already seen what has happened to the value of AJ Green and Julio as they got closer and closer to their nadir as prime dynasty assets. If I had Adams I'd trade him in a second if I could get things like DK/AJ Brown+ in compensation. W/o a second thought. It would be insane not too.

I'm just baffled at that.
AJ Green is 4.5 years older than D. Adams. Adams just turned 28. Nothing wrong with trading Adams for either of those two but given winning matters if your are contending it wouldn't be very smart to trade away 4-6 points weekly.

I would go younger in a start up but Adams is the best WR in the NFL in the near term and not a player to be discarded easily in his prime. Trading him should be more about situation IMO.
No guarantee that Adams is the WR1 next year either though. I mean, everyone was saying that MT was the unquestioned WR1 before the year. He was WR1 in ADP into the season. WR8 for Mizelles December ADP. Things change, Adams, DJ, AJB, etc are all talented. I wouldn't give anything to go from one to the other. Some are closer to the age cliff than others though so it's a fair consideration

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Ice » Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:23 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:49 pm
Ice wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:00 pm
stoneghost28 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:32 pm
I kinda get why so many still have Adams so high (really one of the weirder climbs in recent dynasty history considering where he was in '15), but at the same time, I just find myself wondering why people would have him so high having already seen what has happened to the value of AJ Green and Julio as they got closer and closer to their nadir as prime dynasty assets. If I had Adams I'd trade him in a second if I could get things like DK/AJ Brown+ in compensation. W/o a second thought. It would be insane not too.

I'm just baffled at that.
AJ Green is 4.5 years older than D. Adams. Adams just turned 28. Nothing wrong with trading Adams for either of those two but given winning matters if your are contending it wouldn't be very smart to trade away 4-6 points weekly.

I would go younger in a start up but Adams is the best WR in the NFL in the near term and not a player to be discarded easily in his prime. Trading him should be more about situation IMO.
No guarantee that Adams is the WR1 next year either though. I mean, everyone was saying that MT was the unquestioned WR1 before the year. He was WR1 in ADP into the season. WR8 for Mizelles December ADP. Things change, Adams, DJ, AJB, etc are all talented. I wouldn't give anything to go from one to the other. Some are closer to the age cliff than others though so it's a fair consideration
Never are guarantees but with Adams he was #1 this year. Last year he was #6 in points per game in an injury year. In 2018 he was also #1.

I am not a big fan of ADP as it's an average of a lot of people that may or may not be any good.

That said, we are talking about an Uber Stud vs High Stud potential players so depending on situation the choice should be made but the point remains Adams in that system, with a great QB and way above line should continue to be fantastic for the next few years if he stays healthy. His route running is flawless.

I am the biggest fan there is of DK and was pimping him way before the draft as the next Julio type player but still in one of my money leagues I would not trade my Adams away today because that team is win now and for the next coupe of years.

In another rebuild I tried to trade away Adams for DK and was rejected so I get both sides of the coin.

In a 3rd I moved Chubb and Hopkins and a next years 1st for what turned out to be CEH, Swift, Jefferson, Gibson and Herbert. I kept Adams as my Uber Stud. He wanted Adams but I wouldn't go higher than Hopkins.

3 different situations involving Adams. Why I mention situation. Adams value is really high and 28 is not old for a WR but it is a consideration for sure.
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stoneghost28
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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby stoneghost28 » Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:42 pm

Ice wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:00 pm
stoneghost28 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:32 pm
I kinda get why so many still have Adams so high (really one of the weirder climbs in recent dynasty history considering where he was in '15), but at the same time, I just find myself wondering why people would have him so high having already seen what has happened to the value of AJ Green and Julio as they got closer and closer to their nadir as prime dynasty assets. If I had Adams I'd trade him in a second if I could get things like DK/AJ Brown+ in compensation. W/o a second thought. It would be insane not too.

I'm just baffled at that.
AJ Green is 4.5 years older than D. Adams. Adams just turned 28. Nothing wrong with trading Adams for either of those two but given winning matters if your are contending it wouldn't be very smart to trade away 4-6 points weekly.

I would go younger in a start up but Adams is the best WR in the NFL in the near term and not a player to be discarded easily in his prime. Trading him should be more about situation IMO.

I know this, my point was that your objective should be to beat the decline in value, to sell at peak, or a year after peak, and the whole "better to sell early than sell late" old saw which was laughably proven wrong with Fitz and others so definitely carries risk, but I still am a believer in the idea. When should you trade Adams? Depends. And I agree w/you on that, but that's also kind of my point, if Adams is the consensus #1, can you sell any higher on that? I don't think so, and I'd grab the booty while you can.

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Ice » Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:59 am

stoneghost28 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:42 pm
Ice wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:00 pm
stoneghost28 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:32 pm
I kinda get why so many still have Adams so high (really one of the weirder climbs in recent dynasty history considering where he was in '15), but at the same time, I just find myself wondering why people would have him so high having already seen what has happened to the value of AJ Green and Julio as they got closer and closer to their nadir as prime dynasty assets. If I had Adams I'd trade him in a second if I could get things like DK/AJ Brown+ in compensation. W/o a second thought. It would be insane not too.

I'm just baffled at that.
AJ Green is 4.5 years older than D. Adams. Adams just turned 28. Nothing wrong with trading Adams for either of those two but given winning matters if your are contending it wouldn't be very smart to trade away 4-6 points weekly.

I would go younger in a start up but Adams is the best WR in the NFL in the near term and not a player to be discarded easily in his prime. Trading him should be more about situation IMO.

I know this, my point was that your objective should be to beat the decline in value, to sell at peak, or a year after peak, and the whole "better to sell early than sell late" old saw which was laughably proven wrong with Fitz and others so definitely carries risk, but I still am a believer in the idea. When should you trade Adams? Depends. And I agree w/you on that, but that's also kind of my point, if Adams is the consensus #1, can you sell any higher on that? I don't think so, and I'd grab the booty while you can.
My Goal is to win Championships. No issues with selling early or late but if the risk/reward ratio impacts winning then pause.

We all want to win trades but interestingly enough in dynasty many seem to focus on the future at the expense of winning now.

Sounds like we are in agreement.
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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby mild » Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:11 pm

Any AJ Brown owners worried about the impending loss of Arthur Smith, OC extraordinaire?

He's an elite talent, so this isn't the hugest of worries to me personally - but I do also feel like Smith was getting the most possible out of the Henry / Tannehill duo. I would wager SF Tanny owners counting on him for 2021 will be feeling a slight bit of heat with this move.

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby Yarnith » Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:49 pm

mild wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:11 pm Any AJ Brown owners worried about the impending loss of Arthur Smith, OC extraordinaire?

He's an elite talent, so this isn't the hugest of worries to me personally - but I do also feel like Smith was getting the most possible out of the Henry / Tannehill duo. I would wager SF Tanny owners counting on him for 2021 will be feeling a slight bit of heat with this move.
As long as they stay power run focused I don't think Brown can fail. The big boys on defense have to stay close to the line of scrimmage letting him just bully the DB's trying to cover him. Guy is basically playing like a TE in the WR spot and getting the same mismatch advantages.
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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby CGW » Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:18 am

Same worry the JJ owners have with Kubiak retiring. Ultimately, elite WR will produce. If there is a dip in production from either of these guys I plan to send some offers. Plus it could open up more creative areas of the passing game to get these guys the ball.

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A.J. Brown knee surgery

Postby Kelldon » Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:07 pm

I read that he underwent surgery on both knees and said he should have been out for the season after week 2. Any know anymore regarding injury and what this affect this will have on him going forward, performance and fantasy value?
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Re: A.J. Brown knee surgery

Postby Mjvb5 » Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:14 pm

Reportedly a cleanout(no tears, structural damage etc) shouldn't impact his long term situation

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Re: A.J. Brown knee surgery

Postby joeya2001 » Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:01 am

Mjvb5 wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:14 pm Reportedly a cleanout(no tears, structural damage etc) shouldn't impact his long term situation


That's what she said
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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby thebadferret » Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:20 am

Jonnu Smith? Gone! Corey Davis? Gone!

Is it fair to get hyped about next season for AJ Brown?

I'm pretty sure they will add some weapons, but still...

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:23 am

thebadferret wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:20 am Jonnu Smith? Gone! Corey Davis? Gone!

Is it fair to get hyped about next season for AJ Brown?

I'm pretty sure they will add some weapons, but still...
I just wish Arthur Smith had stayed

But besides that arrows point up (and there isn't even that much room to go up)

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Re: AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

Postby hoos89 » Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:55 am

thebadferret wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:20 am Jonnu Smith? Gone! Corey Davis? Gone!

Is it fair to get hyped about next season for AJ Brown?

I'm pretty sure they will add some weapons, but still...
Going to be hard for him to get open with the entire secondary shadowing him.
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