TE premium value

[tsarpepe]

I think 1.75 is a big difference when talking the top tier TEs..

...most people do.

It's not.

You are simply wrong. Kelce scored 390pts in that format in 2020. Dalvin scored 332. Kittle is more valuable than Kelce in dynasty. Case closed.

[Adam_172]

I think 1.75 is a big difference when talking the top tier TEs..

...most people do.

It's not.

You are simply wrong. Kelce scored 390pts in that format in 2020. Dalvin scored 332. Kittle is more valuable than Kelce in dynasty. Case closed.

*opens the popcorn*

[Mtt33]

I think 1.75 is a big difference when talking the top tier TEs..

...most people do.

It's not.

You are simply wrong. Kelce scored 390pts in that format in 2020. Dalvin scored 332. Kittle is more valuable than Kelce in dynasty. Case closed.

Case is far from closed, and with .75 I’m a little torn but far far from closed based on that odd logic you applied.
By this logic in single QB leagues, QBs should still go in the first round because they score more points... Comparing the top scoring players across positions is bad practice, you need to compare the difference it makes at the position. There is quite a bit of evidence out there that 0.5 Te premium shouldn’t move your TEs much because all the Tes get the boost and you still don’t want a te in flex when you can flex another position that will score more. Kelce last year is an outlier and if you expect him to repeat that he should be drafted incredibly high, but applying that across the board because he had an all time TE year is not a great move IMO

Not to mention your transitive property you applied there
Makes little sense. Kelce outscored dalvin kittle who won’t ever score like Kelce did is more valuable dynasty wise, therefore kittle somehow > RBs

.75 and 1 premium are where it gets a little sticky because you may be able to flex TEs to your benefit, so I’m not necessarily even disagreeing with your kittle ranking as much as the process...

[zaner75]

I think 1.75 is a big difference when talking the top tier TEs..

...most people do.

It's not.

If its Kittle, Kelce or Waller, I think there is a huge drop-off to the next tier...if we were talking anyone else other than those 3, I agree with you.

Here are 2020 stats from my 1.75 league:
Kelce - 391.5 - TE1/#9 overall - highest non-QB
Kamara - 378.9 - RB1/#10 overall
Waller - 358.9 - TE2/#13 overall
Adams - 358.4 - WR1/#14 overall
Cook - 337.8 - RB2/#16 overall
Hill - 328.9 - WR2/#18 overall
Thomas - 230.6 - TE3 (128.3 points behind Waller)

To say that 1.75 is not significant is a personal opinion more factual to the wasteland of TE than the elite 3. With a 1.75 premium Kelce/Kittle/Waller can/should be included in the conversation of top 10 non-QBs. The drop to replacement level at TE is likely going to be greater than whatever is gained from Barkley over your second RB.

[DonBrazi]

Why on Earth we're using Kelce's 2020 as the barometer for player values is beyond me.

It's also beyond me why TEs get the benefit of being compared to replacement level TEs, but Barkley is only compared to an RB2.

The point is that while the top-tier TEs are way more valuable than their counterparts further down the chain in 1.75 TE-Premium leagues, the same exact thing is true for top-tier TEs in standard leagues, PPR leagues, etc..

This isn't a debate about whether they are valuable. They are. Everywhere. It's about whether they gain enough value in 1.75 TE-premium leagues to be worth more than the top-tier RBs (they certainly do not carry that value in other small TE-premium leagues such as 1.5 TE-premium)..

[zaner75]

I agree to disagree. I used 2020 stats because that's all I have to show scoring with a 1.75 premium. If you have other data to support your side, I would be open to hearing it.
The elite TEs finishing first and third out of all RB/WR/TE tells me that they can be comparable to elite RBs and their positional scarcity tips the scales even more (for me)
I think it's a given that the premium enhances the spread between the elite TE group and the rest of the field. Using the players on the OP's roster, based off of 2020, the difference between TE2 (Kittle's SF ADP) and TE12 (Tonyan's SF ADP) was 170.6 points - over 10 ppg!
I'll take the positional advantage every week, and given the other options on the OP's team, I would think it would be difficult for other teams to make up that deficit.

[DonBrazi]

At every stage or your stated thought process, I think you're building in an objectively problematic bias into your analysis. As such, our disagreement is about your process. Not the data. And it has to be in our best interest to ask whether we're looking at things objectively.

1st Statement:

In my 12 team SF startup with 1.75 TE premium, I took Kittle ahead of Barkley (2.04 vs 2.07) but maybe my Niner fandom influenced the pick just a little. I like the positional advantage of the top 3 TE as I feel the drop to replacement level at TE is massive.

A clear, and admitted, bias (fandom).

2nd Statement:

To say that 1.75 is not significant is a personal opinion more factual to the wasteland of TE than the elite 3. With a 1.75 premium Kelce/Kittle/Waller can/should be included in the conversation of top 10 non-QBs. The drop to replacement level at TE is likely going to be greater than whatever is gained from Barkley over your second RB.

Now, Kittle scored roughly the same in 2020 and 2019 on a ppg basis, and you say he scored 10 ppg more than TE12.. but how many did the top RBs score over a replacement RB? Your 'replacement' player is very important, and you could certainly afford to consider whether you're comparing Barkley to a real 'replacement' player.. and whether you're consistent in your application of the idea of 'replacement' player across the positions. Is Kittle being compared to the TE12 the same as comparing Barkley to the RB12? If you're starting 2 RBs, a 'replacement' RB is RB25ish, not RB13ish. The top RB scored about 30 ppg in each of the last two years. That's about 16 or 17 points more than RB25. What if you thought of a 'replacement' RB as a Flex player? 16 points is more than 10..

3rd Statement:

I agree to disagree. I used 2020 stats because that's all I have to show scoring with a 1.75 premium. If you have other data to support your side, I would be open to hearing it.

There are plenty of articles out there for you to read. I wish I had all the data at hand and/or memorised, but if you don't mind looking, you can find more than enough fairly easily.

Still, I think you could afford to consider whether the season you're looking at is throwing you off at all. How many points did the TE1 score per game in 2019 relative to 2020? Kelce scored somewhere in the neighbourhood of 5 more points a week in 2020. Which of those seasons is more representative of projectable production? Is one an outlier? Which should form your sample? The sample you're using is very important.

Again, I'm not speaking to the data. I'm speaking to the highly problematic thought process that you use to support your perspective. But yes, of course, every conclusion is an opinion.

[zaner75]

This post is a rebuttal to DonBrazi. If others decide to read it, I hope you gain some perspective in your own thoughts about a 1.75 TE premium.

I'm not afraid of doing a little work. Found stats for 1.75 scoring going back to 2017. Before I share my findings, let me address your rebuttals by being more specific in my evidence so that you do not misconstrue my approach, as much of your attempts to bolster your side is based on your misunderstanding of what I did not address in enough detail.

You think I only like Kittle because I am biased as a fan. That is a reason why I took him in my startup but I also recognize that he is an (almost) universally agreed on top 3 TE asset and believe that he provides a significant positional advantage over TE4-TE12, let alone TE13+. Do you rank Kittle as a top 3 dynasty TE? Do other, non-biased, people think Kittle is a top 3 dynasty TE?

The only SF TE premium ADP I could find was for the Scott Fish Bowl (and I know you are not going to provide me with other data to look at, so that's all I have to use). For SFBX, TE1 (Kelce) had an ADP of 7, TE2 (Kittle) had an ADP of 9. It's a specious argument to say that my bias as a fan of the 49ers was the reason I drafted Kittle. Many people value and want elite TEs in TE premium scoring, not just biased Chiefs or 49ers fans.

I was trying to make the point that a 1.75 premium is enough to move the elite TEs into the conversation with RB & WR, that you are very quick to dismiss, with no reasons/evidence to support your claim. In using 'the drop to replacement level' as part of my claim, I did not support my claim with reasons or evidence either, which I will rectify.

In trying to reference the OP's roster replacements if he were to trade Kittle, is where I started using TE ADP data (Kittle being TE2, Tonyan being TE12 per 2021 SF ADP). I never mentioned comparing Barkley to RB12. RB12 is still a RB1. I said second RB as Barkley would be considered one of his top 2 RB starters. In doing so, I neglected to account for flex positions.

Using the OPs roster, if he traded Kittle for Barkley, Barkley would be replacing his lowest flex starter. Assuming a starting lineup of 2RB/2WR/3 flex, as OP stated he can start up to 5 RB, that would mean replacing Etienne/Hubbard/Ruggs. (RB-Cook, CMC, WR-Cooper, Tyreek, Flex-JRob, ARob, Etienne/Hubbard/Ruggs). I will choose Etienne as he has the highest 2021 SF ADP of the last 3 players (54 overall, 142, 140) even though his 2021 SF ADP is higher than that of ARob (59/WR16) as WR16 scored 234.1 points.

Etienne has a 2021 SF ADP of RB21. Using 2020 stats, the RB21 scored a total of 179.5 points. Using Barkley's 2021 SF ADP of RB2 and applying the 2020 stats of RB2 (337.8 points), there is a difference of 158.3 points gained. RB25 scored 168 points for a difference of 169.8 points.

Kittle's 2021 SF ADP is TE2, Tonyan's 2021 SF ADP is TE12. in 2020, TE2 scored 358.9 points. TE12 scored 188.3 points. The difference lost is 170.6 points. That's the 10 ppg difference I was referencing.

Upon running these specific numbers, the difference is not as large as I thought it would be, but is is not as large as the numbers you implied. They are basically even. If you want to take a 3 game sample size for the top RB PPG in 2020 or an historical 2019 season where RB1 outscored RB2 by 156.4 points (9.7 PPG) to try to make your point then more power to you.

Back to your original point,

I think 1.75 is a big difference when talking the top tier TEs..

...most people do.

It's not.

Here is what I found when looking back to 2017. Top 20 PPR flex scorers with 1.75 TE premium
2020
7 RB, 11 WR, 2 TE - TE1 was #1 overall, TE2 was #3
2019
8 RB, 7 WR, 5 TE - TE1 = 3 overall, TE2 = 9, TE3 = 10, TE4 = 11, TE5 = 19
2018
8 RB, 9 WR, 3 TE - TE1 = 4 overall, TE2 = 5, TE3 = 12
2017
8 RB, 9 WR, 3 TE - TE1 = 7 overall, TE2 = 9, TE3 = 16

Based on all of this, I do think elite TEs compare favourably with RB and WR with a 1.75 premium. Out of the 13 TE finishes, 9 were in the top 10. Given that there are few TE capable of entering that level, I stand by my comment that I agree to disagree with you that a 1.75 premium is not a big difference and believe that elite TE production provides a great weekly advantage and is worth valuing with a 1.75 premium.

I know that there is no convincing you off your stance nor am I trying to (if anything, I think this post will probably just serve to antagonize you further into another rebuttal) but as I said, I agree to disagree with you. We would probably make good trade partners. I would trade Barkley to you and you would trade Kittle to me and we would both think we won the trade.

To the OP, my apologies for hijacking your thread. I will not be commenting further.

[DonBrazi]

This post is a rebuttal to DonBrazi. If others decide to read it, I hope you gain some perspective in your own thoughts about a 1.75 TE premium.

...To the OP, my apologies for hijacking your thread. I will not be commenting further.

This type of dialogue is a good thing and I don't think you shouldn't apologise for it. It helps get to the root of what and why the OP asked the question in the first place. At least, that's how I see things. Still, you're right that it is probably best to cut it short at some point.

That being said:

You think I only like Kittle because I am biased as a fan. That is a reason why I took him in my startup but I also recognize that he is an (almost) universally agreed on top 3 TE asset and believe that he provides a significant positional advantage over TE4-TE12, let alone TE13+. Do you rank Kittle as a top 3 dynasty TE? Do other, non-biased, people think Kittle is a top 3 dynasty TE?

Only? No. But you did say it played a role.. so I think it played a role. It was not at all specious for me to bring it up as a factor within a broader context/argument. That's how arguments work, and this back and forth wouldn't even exist if that was the only reason you prefer him.

And yes, Kittle is a consensus top-3 TE. No argument there.

The only SF TE premium ADP I could find was for the Scott Fish Bowl (and I know you are not going to provide me with other data to look at, so that's all I have to use). For SFBX, TE1 (Kelce) had an ADP of 7, TE2 (Kittle) had an ADP of 9.

Perhaps my wording choice was poor. Poor in that it gave you the impression that I didn't think TEs gained any value in a 1.75 TE-premium league. If so, I'm sorry. However, as I've said repeatedly now, the question was never about whether TEs gain value in TE-Premium leagues. Of course they do. The question was about how much value they gain. Do they, or, more specifically, the top-tier TEs overtake the top-tier RBs? You looked at SFBX ADP and noted how high the top-tier TEs went. It's important to note, if we're using this data to justify any claims, that they went after the top-tier RBs.

I don't need to provide further data to argue my point. Again, my point is about your argument. Not the data. This part of your argument, if anything, would only showcase that even in a more extreme TE-premium league, top-tier TEs are not valued more than top-tier RBs.

To that, we can ignore that SFBX is a re-draft league, but it is worth highlighting that, as I alluded to earlier, SFBX gave TEs a 0.5 bonus for receptions and a 0.5 bonus for first downs. That's more than the 0.75 bonus that TEs get in OP's league.

And I did, if you remember, say that 0.75 is not enough to make the drastic move of bumping Kittle over Barkley. But another 0.25 (or 1 point bonus for a 2PPR total) would be more reasonable. That extra 0.25 is worked into SFBX, which represents a much more significant premium for TEs. As such, it is a bad example to use in your argument, and somewhat supports my argument.

I was trying to make the point that a 1.75 premium is enough to move the elite TEs into the conversation with RB & WR, that you are very quick to dismiss, with no reasons/evidence to support your claim. In using 'the drop to replacement level' as part of my claim, I did not support my claim with reasons or evidence either, which I will rectify.

Probably only the pedant in me, but this isn't true. We both gave reasons for our claims. Maybe not evidence.. but reasons, yes. My assumption is that there is no evidence I can present that is not ubiquitous. We all have access to the same 'evidence'. Further, I limited the scope of my dissent from your view to your reasoning. As I am doing now, I highlighted how the information you presented was not saying what you thought it was saying. I don't need any evidence other than what you actually said.

*Maybe unfairly, but I'm 'very quick to dismiss' the idea of Kittle > Barkley in a 1.75 TE-premium league because I feel like we settled this debate a few years ago.. To me, it's like using YPA to argue for the superiority of one RB over another.. or completion percentage for one QB over another. This 1.75 TE-Premium discussion is a horse long dead. However, if we're limiting this to top-tier TEs 'being in the conversation' with top-tier RBs, ok. Fine. Argument over. I never said Kittle should valued significantly less than Barkley in a 1.75 TE-premium league. So we wouldn't have a disagreement.*

In trying to reference the OP's roster replacements if he were to trade Kittle, is where I started using TE ADP data (Kittle being TE2, Tonyan being TE12 per 2021 SF ADP). I never mentioned comparing Barkley to RB12. RB12 is still a RB1. I said second RB as Barkley would be considered one of his top 2 RB starters. In doing so, I neglected to account for flex positions.

The reason I mentioned your usage of 'replacement' was because you said the drop to a replacement level TE (from Kittle) 'is massive'. Yet, you didn't mention that the drop to replacement level RB (from Barkely) is even more massive. If you prefer a player because of their value over replacement, you should prefer Barkley.

Later, you compared the difference between Kittle and a replacement level TE to the difference between Barkley and OP's 'second RB'. I was highlighting that that's comparing apples to oranges. An objective comparison would be Kittle's value over replacement vs. Barkley's value over replacement. What I think you were trying to get at was the value that Kittle, alone, would provide to OP's lineup. A claim about maximising lineup value (rather than maximising roster value). If the scope of your claim was that Kittle provided more bang than Barkley to that specific lineup, that's one thing. It's a completely different thing than Kittle > Barkley in a 1.75 TE-premium league. Naturally, it has it's own problems, but because you never explicitly said it, I didn't want to assume that you were making that claim. But I do think it'd be a better route for your argument. And, as luck would have it, it's the argument you presented most recently.

However, to argue against that would be well beyond the scope of this thread.

Based on all of this, I do think elite TEs compare favourably with RB and WR with a 1.75 premium. Out of the 13 TE finishes, 9 were in the top 10. Given that there are few TE capable of entering that level, I stand by my comment that I agree to disagree with you that a 1.75 premium is not a big difference and believe that elite TE production provides a great weekly advantage and is worth valuing with a 1.75 premium.

I said 1.75 isn't a big 'enough' difference to put the top guys over the top RBs. The top-20 data you presented speaks to TEs, as a whole, in relation to RBs, as a whole.

I would again ask whether you're being true to your argument here. You didn't show it, but it sure looks like RB1/2 outscores TE1/2 the majority of the time (also important to ask whether the one time it didn't happen was an outlier or to be expected going forward). If we're comparing Kittle to Barkley, we should be comparing top-2ish TEs to top-2ish RBs. Apples to apples. If OP asked about moving Kittle for Chubb, that'd be a different thing.

Anyway, like I said, you probably are on to something in saying you won't comment further. I will follow your lead. But thank you for the discussion. I appreciate it.

[srlarson]

I'm in a 1.5 TE Premium (.5 rb 1 wr) and having studs in that format is a HUGE advantage (Kelce, Waller). Kelce was 7th overall #1 non QB, and Waller was 15th overall, 6th non QB.......good choice

[tsarpepe]

Why on Earth we're using Kelce's 2020 as the barometer for player values is beyond me.

It's also beyond me why TEs get the benefit of being compared to replacement level TEs, but Barkley is only compared to an RB2.

The point is that while the top-tier TEs are way more valuable than their counterparts further down the chain in 1.75 TE-Premium leagues, the same exact thing is true for top-tier TEs in standard leagues, PPR leagues, etc..

This isn't a debate about whether they are valuable. They are. Everywhere. It's about whether they gain enough value in 1.75 TE-premium leagues to be worth more than the top-tier RBs (they certainly do not carry that value in other small TE-premium leagues such as 1.5 TE-premium)..

I see you're trying, but it's not working, man... You said in straight text that .75 TEP doesn't make much of a difference for the top tier TEs. We quoted you numbers for Kelce, Kittle, and Waller that show the very opposite. Just stop, OK.

[Mtt33]

Why on Earth we're using Kelce's 2020 as the barometer for player values is beyond me.

It's also beyond me why TEs get the benefit of being compared to replacement level TEs, but Barkley is only compared to an RB2.

The point is that while the top-tier TEs are way more valuable than their counterparts further down the chain in 1.75 TE-Premium leagues, the same exact thing is true for top-tier TEs in standard leagues, PPR leagues, etc..

This isn't a debate about whether they are valuable. They are. Everywhere. It's about whether they gain enough value in 1.75 TE-premium leagues to be worth more than the top-tier RBs (they certainly do not carry that value in other small TE-premium leagues such as 1.5 TE-premium)..

I see you're trying, but it's not working, man... You said in straight text that .75 TEP doesn't make much of a difference for the top tier TEs. We quoted you numbers for Kelce, Kittle, and Waller that show the very opposite. Just stop, OK.

So I want to restate before countering your statement here that I think .75 is getting right around the point it matters so I’m not arguing against you here on that (personally still taking Barkley pretty easily over kittle), BUT you guys keep citing top scorers at each position. Points from one position to another don’t matter (or else QBs would be the most important position in single qb) unless comparing flexes, which I’ve seen no data or arguments on in this thread. differential within the position is what matters. Kelce and Waller had outlier years, they were massive advantages in premium or non-premium. If you think they will repeat that or kittle will give 100 catches a run consistently then yes the .75 absolutely matters. If you get down to the 80 catch range it’s just not a big enough advantage over other TEs in my opinion to draft kittle in the 1st round of a startup, which if you’re taking him over Barkley you are absolutely doing.

Tight ends as a whole get a boost for me at 2ppr because they score enough that they can flexed. 1.75 for me is on the cusp, would love to see some flex/replaceable player data and comparisons on 1.75 if anybody has any.