The Kyle "Is not the" Pitts Thread

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Ice
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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Ice » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:43 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:39 am
Ice wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:36 am Engram has zero concentration skills. He is a fine athletic specimen but simply hasn't developed as a player to be counted on when needed. Dude has skillets for hands. I bet he has had more drops than any since entering the league. He gets targets by default IMO.

I'll bet Engram's metrics were probably better than Kelce's but there is a key difference. One is a HOF player that can catch and plays hard every play.

It is obvious that if you excel in the 3-cone you will suck and DK proved the reverse is true! :D
Sure, but it's not like anyone expected Travis Kelce to become one of the best TEs ever.

As always athletic metrics mean nothing if you just aren't that good at football, but despite the drops, I don't think Engram is bad at all. He could still become a high-end TE.
So you're the one who voted him to the Pro Bowl :D
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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:47 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:24 amReally, Engram's only flaws outside of blocking is that he's struggled with health for a few seasons.
And that he can't catch the ball.

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby briank » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:09 am

murphysxm wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:55 am
briank wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:18 am
Pitts is absolutely comparable to Engram statistically and athletically. Engram doesn't have the size, but he was an athletic freak coming out of college.
I am not on board with "absolutely comparable" to Engram, he was straight speed at the position coming out of college. Pitts is 3-4" taller, with similiar speed and has a much more prolific red zone resume. The NFL covets playmakers and match up nightmares in 2021, Pitts is both and will be a top 10 NFL selection and will be the 2nd pass catcher drafted IMO. If I have to wait a year, so be it. I want all of him I can get
You're taking my comment out of context. I'm not saying absolutely in the sense that they are the same player. I noted the size difference in the same comment. My point is that it is absolutely relevant to compare the 2.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Tubisky/Lock
RB Mixon/Harris/Etienne
WR DJ Moore
TE Kelce/Irv
2022 1.06/1.09
2023 3x 1st

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Ryan
RB CMC/Zeke/Mixon/Sanders
WR Evans/Godwin/Robinson/Golladay/Thielen/Lockett/Fuller
TE Kittle/Waller/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Brady
RB CMC
WR Adams/Hill/Diggs/AJ Brown/Aiyuk/Woods/R. Moore
TE Kelce/Kittle/Njoku
2x 2023 1sts

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Lawrence/Fields
RB Harris/Etienne
WR Jefferson/Deebo/Lamb/DSmith/Sutton/Juedy/Kirk/E. Moore/R. Moore
TE Kittle/Pitts/Waller/Fant/Njoku
2022 1.01/1.12/2.02

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby briank » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:13 am

Packerland wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:31 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:24 am
murphysxm wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:55 am

I am not on board with "absolutely comparable" to Engram, he was straight speed at the position coming out of college. Pitts is 3-4" taller, with similiar speed and has a much more prolific red zone resume. The NFL covets playmakers and match up nightmares in 2021, Pitts is both and will be a top 10 NFL selection and will be the 2nd pass catcher drafted IMO. If I have to wait a year, so be it. I want all of him I can get
Engram was:

98th percentile in 40YD
82nd percentile in Vert
94th percentile in Broad Jump
80th percentile in 20YS
88th percentile in 3Cone

If Pitts replicates the above, everyone will be absolutely thrilled.

Engram had an elite athletic profile for a TE coming out of college on top of good production. He was a mismatch nightmare in college and fit the direction the NFL is going with receiving TEs. Really, Engram's only flaws outside of blocking is that he's struggled with health for a few seasons.

Hey guys,

Need some advice on Pitts. I have a pretty solid team in a 1 QB league start 10 PPR with my main guys being Murray, Cook, Gibson, Aaron Jones, Jefferson, Godwin, Lamb, Reagor, Mooney, Hardman. I also have the 1.01 via trade and only have Jonnu as my TE. I think 1.01 is too early to go TE as it's my biggest need and I love Ja'Marr Chase. Do you think I would be crazy to take Pitts at 1.01 in a non TE premium? I know he will be gone by 1.05 and I'm not sure if the other TE's will fall to my pick in the 2nd round. Appreciate your thoughts.
Personally, I think it's crazy to take him at 1.01. Trade down to 1.04 and take him there if you must. If someone is crazy enough to take him before 1.04, you'll still get an elite prospect.
Last edited by briank on Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Tubisky/Lock
RB Mixon/Harris/Etienne
WR DJ Moore
TE Kelce/Irv
2022 1.06/1.09
2023 3x 1st

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Ryan
RB CMC/Zeke/Mixon/Sanders
WR Evans/Godwin/Robinson/Golladay/Thielen/Lockett/Fuller
TE Kittle/Waller/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Brady
RB CMC
WR Adams/Hill/Diggs/AJ Brown/Aiyuk/Woods/R. Moore
TE Kelce/Kittle/Njoku
2x 2023 1sts

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Lawrence/Fields
RB Harris/Etienne
WR Jefferson/Deebo/Lamb/DSmith/Sutton/Juedy/Kirk/E. Moore/R. Moore
TE Kittle/Pitts/Waller/Fant/Njoku
2022 1.01/1.12/2.02

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby briank » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:18 am

Ice wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:36 am Engram has zero concentration skills. He is a fine athletic specimen but simply hasn't developed as a player to be counted on when needed. Dude has skillets for hands. I bet he has had more drops than any since entering the league. He gets targets by default IMO.

I'll bet Engram's metrics were probably better than Kelce's but there is a key difference. One is a HOF player that can catch and plays hard every play.

It is obvious that if you excel in the 3-cone you will suck and DK proved the reverse is true! :D
Engram didn't have a problem with drops until last season. It's amazing what 1 drop in prime time can do to someone's perception.

We're not comparing Engram today to Pitts. We're comparing Engram as a prospect to the prospect Pitts.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Tubisky/Lock
RB Mixon/Harris/Etienne
WR DJ Moore
TE Kelce/Irv
2022 1.06/1.09
2023 3x 1st

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Ryan
RB CMC/Zeke/Mixon/Sanders
WR Evans/Godwin/Robinson/Golladay/Thielen/Lockett/Fuller
TE Kittle/Waller/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Brady
RB CMC
WR Adams/Hill/Diggs/AJ Brown/Aiyuk/Woods/R. Moore
TE Kelce/Kittle/Njoku
2x 2023 1sts

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Lawrence/Fields
RB Harris/Etienne
WR Jefferson/Deebo/Lamb/DSmith/Sutton/Juedy/Kirk/E. Moore/R. Moore
TE Kittle/Pitts/Waller/Fant/Njoku
2022 1.01/1.12/2.02

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby briank » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:24 am

bjd5211 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:47 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:24 amReally, Engram's only flaws outside of blocking is that he's struggled with health for a few seasons.
And that he can't catch the ball.
Again, his hands were never a problem in college, or in his first 2 years in the NFL. Engram has also had terrible QB play. Bringing up a problem that developed in year 3 has absolutely nothing to do with each of their prospect profiles.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Tubisky/Lock
RB Mixon/Harris/Etienne
WR DJ Moore
TE Kelce/Irv
2022 1.06/1.09
2023 3x 1st

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Ryan
RB CMC/Zeke/Mixon/Sanders
WR Evans/Godwin/Robinson/Golladay/Thielen/Lockett/Fuller
TE Kittle/Waller/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Brady
RB CMC
WR Adams/Hill/Diggs/AJ Brown/Aiyuk/Woods/R. Moore
TE Kelce/Kittle/Njoku
2x 2023 1sts

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Lawrence/Fields
RB Harris/Etienne
WR Jefferson/Deebo/Lamb/DSmith/Sutton/Juedy/Kirk/E. Moore/R. Moore
TE Kittle/Pitts/Waller/Fant/Njoku
2022 1.01/1.12/2.02

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby wickerkat1212 » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:26 am

How high in the NFL draft does he have to go for you to think he's elite, unique, a stud? Top half? First round? Just curious what it will take for those that aren't believers OR to confirm for those that are already on board? I know draft capital is important. Thoughts?
D3:
QB—Allen RB—Kamara, Jacobs, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Harrison, TILLMAN, Marshall, Jefferson TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington KRAFT PK—Prater DEF—BAL

D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC RB—BIJAN, Conner, Gainwell, Gainwell, HULL, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin, Murray WR—Jefferson, Hill, Diggs, Adams, Allen, TILLMAN, Boyd, Woods, HUTCHINSON, DOUGLAS TE—Kelce, Kmet, Schultz, Parham PK—Butker DEF—PIT

Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, Howell RB—BIJAN, Kamara, Allgeier, Singletary, Mostert, BRob, Warren, HULL, GRAY WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, Myers, Hardman, Reynolds BOUTTE TE—Kmet, Smith, Hurst, Ertz, KRAFT PK—Elliott DEF—PHI

Superflex 2:
QB: Goff, Cousins, Wentz, White; RB: BIJAN, BRob, ZWhite, Hines, TDP, McLaughlin WR: Higgins, JSN, JWilliams, DJM, RMoore, DOWNS, Atwell, TILLMAN, BOUTTE, SMoore, PCampbell, DPJ, ATP, CJONES TE: Trautman, Ferguson, KRAFT, Hooper

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby briank » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:35 am

wickerkat1212 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:26 am How high in the NFL draft does he have to go for you to think he's elite, unique, a stud? Top half? First round? Just curious what it will take for those that aren't believers OR to confirm for those that are already on board? I know draft capital is important. Thoughts?
First of all, I do think he's an elite prospect. I do think he's unique. I do think he could be a stud. I also think there's a good chance he'll be drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round and possibly in the top 10. I just don't think any situation justifies ranking him as the TE4 in a startup. Too many can't miss TE miss in fantasy. It has historically been a difficult position to predict. I'm fully in the don't take a rookie TE in the first round of rookie drafts group because of historical context. I'm excited enough for Pitts' unique profile that I'm willing to take him in the back half of the 1st. I just think it's absurd how far the hype has gone and how willing people are to ignore history.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Tubisky/Lock
RB Mixon/Harris/Etienne
WR DJ Moore
TE Kelce/Irv
2022 1.06/1.09
2023 3x 1st

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Ryan
RB CMC/Zeke/Mixon/Sanders
WR Evans/Godwin/Robinson/Golladay/Thielen/Lockett/Fuller
TE Kittle/Waller/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Brady
RB CMC
WR Adams/Hill/Diggs/AJ Brown/Aiyuk/Woods/R. Moore
TE Kelce/Kittle/Njoku
2x 2023 1sts

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Lawrence/Fields
RB Harris/Etienne
WR Jefferson/Deebo/Lamb/DSmith/Sutton/Juedy/Kirk/E. Moore/R. Moore
TE Kittle/Pitts/Waller/Fant/Njoku
2022 1.01/1.12/2.02

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:38 am

briank wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:18 am Engram didn't have a problem with drops until last season. It's amazing what 1 drop in prime time can do to someone's perception.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF/status/1 ... 2953746432

Except he has more drops than any TE in the league since he came into the league, it wasn't just "1 drop in prime time". The fact that he's only played in 50 of a possible 64 career regular season games makes that "accomplishment" even more impressive.

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby briank » Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:09 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:38 am
briank wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:18 am Engram didn't have a problem with drops until last season. It's amazing what 1 drop in prime time can do to someone's perception.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF/status/1 ... 2953746432

Except he has more drops than any TE in the league since he came into the league, it wasn't just "1 drop in prime time". The fact that he's only played in 50 of a possible 64 career regular season games makes that "accomplishment" even more impressive.
He had just 3 drops in each of his 1st 2 seasons.

Drop Rate:
2018: 4.7%
2019: 4.4%

Let's compare that to the GOAT:

Kelce:

2018: 4.7%
2019: 5.9%

That stat is heavily driven by last year's performance. For the 3rd time, drops were not an issue before last year.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Tubisky/Lock
RB Mixon/Harris/Etienne
WR DJ Moore
TE Kelce/Irv
2022 1.06/1.09
2023 3x 1st

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Ryan
RB CMC/Zeke/Mixon/Sanders
WR Evans/Godwin/Robinson/Golladay/Thielen/Lockett/Fuller
TE Kittle/Waller/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Brady
RB CMC
WR Adams/Hill/Diggs/AJ Brown/Aiyuk/Woods/R. Moore
TE Kelce/Kittle/Njoku
2x 2023 1sts

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Lawrence/Fields
RB Harris/Etienne
WR Jefferson/Deebo/Lamb/DSmith/Sutton/Juedy/Kirk/E. Moore/R. Moore
TE Kittle/Pitts/Waller/Fant/Njoku
2022 1.01/1.12/2.02

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Farley » Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:35 pm

briank wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:35 am
wickerkat1212 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:26 am How high in the NFL draft does he have to go for you to think he's elite, unique, a stud? Top half? First round? Just curious what it will take for those that aren't believers OR to confirm for those that are already on board? I know draft capital is important. Thoughts?
First of all, I do think he's an elite prospect. I do think he's unique. I do think he could be a stud. I also think there's a good chance he'll be drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round and possibly in the top 10. I just don't think any situation justifies ranking him as the TE4 in a startup. Too many can't miss TE miss in fantasy. It has historically been a difficult position to predict. I'm fully in the don't take a rookie TE in the first round of rookie drafts group because of historical context. I'm excited enough for Pitts' unique profile that I'm willing to take him in the back half of the 1st. I just think it's absurd how far the hype has gone and how willing people are to ignore history.
Why is it so absurd?

You subscribe to the "I never draft a TE in round 1" philosophy. But, you've stated that you're willing to make an exception for Pitts.

Others subscribe to the "take a TE in back half of 1st" philosophy. But, they seem willing to make an exception for Pitts and take him mid-1st.

Still others may have no trouble being patient with TE's (or, more than likely play in TE premium), and are more open to drafting TE's earlier (mid-late 1st). They, too, seem willing to make an exception for Pitts and take him with an earlier 1st.

Seems like almost everyone is ready to make some sort of an exception for Pitts this year (especially if he actually goes top 6 of NFL draft.)

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Sriracha » Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:56 pm

Farley wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:35 pm
briank wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:35 am
wickerkat1212 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:26 am How high in the NFL draft does he have to go for you to think he's elite, unique, a stud? Top half? First round? Just curious what it will take for those that aren't believers OR to confirm for those that are already on board? I know draft capital is important. Thoughts?
First of all, I do think he's an elite prospect. I do think he's unique. I do think he could be a stud. I also think there's a good chance he'll be drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round and possibly in the top 10. I just don't think any situation justifies ranking him as the TE4 in a startup. Too many can't miss TE miss in fantasy. It has historically been a difficult position to predict. I'm fully in the don't take a rookie TE in the first round of rookie drafts group because of historical context. I'm excited enough for Pitts' unique profile that I'm willing to take him in the back half of the 1st. I just think it's absurd how far the hype has gone and how willing people are to ignore history.
Why is it so absurd?

You subscribe to the "I never draft a TE in round 1" philosophy. But, you've stated that you're willing to make an exception for Pitts.

Others subscribe to the "take a TE in back half of 1st" philosophy. But, they seem willing to make an exception for Pitts and take him mid-1st.

Still others may have no trouble being patient with TE's (or, more than likely play in TE premium), and are more open to drafting TE's earlier (mid-late 1st). They, too, seem willing to make an exception for Pitts and take him with an earlier 1st.

Seems like almost everyone is ready to make some sort of an exception for Pitts this year (especially if he actually goes top 6 of NFL draft.)
It's just an inefficient allocation of draft capital.

Choosing a RB/WR/QB (in SF) over a TE is simply the arbitrage play. The upside for hitting on an elite RB, WR, QB is at worst equal to, but usually better than hitting on an elite TE. The return on investment is faster. Even if these TE's do hit (like Noah Fant his rookie year) the average fantasy player won't recognize it, and the ones that do will still likely undervalue them based on how divergent they are from consensus rankings.

Let's go all the way back to 2019 when we had two "generational TE talents" in Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson. Noah Fant put up the 5th most rookie receiving yards in two decades at the highest efficiency (in terms of YPRR, YPR, YPT). His value did not shoot up, and near every single fantasy player would've given you Fant+ for either Kyler Murary, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, DK Metcalf. Players selected behind them in a lot of rookie drafts Daniel Jones, AJB, Deebo Samuel, Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, Devin Singletary, Drew Lock could've also probably netted you them from a lot of owners.

And 2019 was a relatively weak draft class.

In this draft class, with 5 1st round QBs, 6 elite WR prospects, 2 - 3 stud RB prospects.. it makes absolutely no sense to go Pitts in the mid 1st unless you have a crystal ball telling you which of these guys will hit, which will bust, or that Pitts is going to make Travis Kelce look like a schmuck in 2 years.

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:16 pm

Anyone remember Marques Colston?
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Herbert, Goff
RB: Bijan, JT, Saquon, J.Cook, K.Hunt, Foreman, Z.White, McKinnon, S.Tucker
WR: G.Wilson, Olave, Jeudy, Pittman, J.Williams, OBJ, N. Brown, JuJu,
TE: Chig, Conklin, L. Thomas
Taxi: M.Mims, Ro. Johnson
'24: (4) 1sts, 2nd, (2) 3rds, 4th
'25: (2) 1sts, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Sriracha » Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:21 pm

YouMightDieTryin wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:16 pm Anyone remember Marques Colston?
7th round TE out of Hofstra who was converted to WR?

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby wickerkat1212 » Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:33 pm

briank wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:35 am
wickerkat1212 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:26 am How high in the NFL draft does he have to go for you to think he's elite, unique, a stud? Top half? First round? Just curious what it will take for those that aren't believers OR to confirm for those that are already on board? I know draft capital is important. Thoughts?
First of all, I do think he's an elite prospect. I do think he's unique. I do think he could be a stud. I also think there's a good chance he'll be drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round and possibly in the top 10. I just don't think any situation justifies ranking him as the TE4 in a startup. Too many can't miss TE miss in fantasy. It has historically been a difficult position to predict. I'm fully in the don't take a rookie TE in the first round of rookie drafts group because of historical context. I'm excited enough for Pitts' unique profile that I'm willing to take him in the back half of the 1st. I just think it's absurd how far the hype has gone and how willing people are to ignore history.
Oh I wouldn't put him TE4 in a startup, that's way too early. AGREE. I have him in the back half of the first round of rookie drafts as well. I have the #7 and #8 and both teams have TEs that are "okay" so it could be BPA and need.

Harris
Etienne
Chase
Smith
Williams
Lawrence
Bateman

I could see Pitts and 7 or 8.
D3:
QB—Allen RB—Kamara, Jacobs, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Harrison, TILLMAN, Marshall, Jefferson TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington KRAFT PK—Prater DEF—BAL

D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC RB—BIJAN, Conner, Gainwell, Gainwell, HULL, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin, Murray WR—Jefferson, Hill, Diggs, Adams, Allen, TILLMAN, Boyd, Woods, HUTCHINSON, DOUGLAS TE—Kelce, Kmet, Schultz, Parham PK—Butker DEF—PIT

Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, Howell RB—BIJAN, Kamara, Allgeier, Singletary, Mostert, BRob, Warren, HULL, GRAY WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, Myers, Hardman, Reynolds BOUTTE TE—Kmet, Smith, Hurst, Ertz, KRAFT PK—Elliott DEF—PHI

Superflex 2:
QB: Goff, Cousins, Wentz, White; RB: BIJAN, BRob, ZWhite, Hines, TDP, McLaughlin WR: Higgins, JSN, JWilliams, DJM, RMoore, DOWNS, Atwell, TILLMAN, BOUTTE, SMoore, PCampbell, DPJ, ATP, CJONES TE: Trautman, Ferguson, KRAFT, Hooper


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