Zach Ertz Value Thread - Now in Arizona

[Anteaters]

It’s possible that their read of the situation is that Ertz is getting cut, in which case, why trade for him and give up draft capital to pay more for him?

Possible.

OTOH, we can go through a huge list of NFL teams and ask why they would give up a 3rd/4th rounder to get a guy whose probably not better than the TEs already on their roster. You have to go through over half the NFL to find teams where Ertz is a significant upgrade at TE. And then we have to ignore the rebuilding teams who shouldn't give up draft capital to get a TE past his prime. At that point, we're left with maybe 4 or 5 teams that might want to give up a draft pick to get Ertz but I still doubt it would be a 3rd/4th.

How much better is Ertz than other free agent TEs this offseason?

BTW, I don't hate Ertz, and if I had him in fantasy, I might hold him too. But I wouldn't trade much to get him.

[CGW]

It’s possible that their read of the situation is that Ertz is getting cut, in which case, why trade for him and give up draft capital to pay more for him?

Possible.

OTOH, we can go through a huge list of NFL teams and ask why they would give up a 3rd/4th rounder to get a guy whose probably not better than the TEs already on their roster. You have to go through over half the NFL to find teams where Ertz is a significant upgrade at TE. And then we have to ignore the rebuilding teams who shouldn't give up draft capital to get a TE past his prime. At that point, we're left with maybe 4 or 5 teams that might want to give up a draft pick to get Ertz but I still doubt it would be a 3rd/4th.

How much better is Ertz than other free agent TEs this offseason?

BTW, I don't hate Ertz, and if I had him in fantasy, I might hold him too. But I wouldn't trade much to get him.

Its unlikely anyone is giving up capital in the NFL for him. It was likely either a Wentz package or they cut him to save $4.7m.

As far as free agency goes, Hunter Henry is really the only attractive TE available. More speculative, maybe Everett and Jonnu.

[Vcize]

I’d sell for a 3. I’m only in 2 leagues, but that seems like going rate for player like him in both. Having an elite TE is super valuable, but then there’s always tons of guys available for nearly nothing who put up same. I don’t really see likely scenario of ertz becoming elite again.

I’d understand if a believer and need more than a 3, but the “late first” discussion kind of shocked me, I won’t lie

Until this season, Ertz the last 5 seasons has at least 70 receptions and 800 receiving yards. That's high-end TE production. Add in a reasonable amount of TDs and you're talking about 175-190 PPR points. Those amount of points are good enough for Top 6 TE production the last 4 seasons.

It just doesn't make much sense that a TE with that upside and a proven track record, who isn't even old for positional standards is worth some random 3rd round rookie pick. 3rd round picks in a typical draft are usually roster clogger players who don't even play much or at all as rookies. In other words, if they even become fantasy relevant, you're excited.

Ertz is still good enough that he can go somewhere, play every down, and command 100+ targets.

This all makes sense when I read it, but man he just looks toast out there. He's 30 but he looks like he's 40 when he's running around.

Then again so does Gronk and he still managed to come back and put up a nice season. It's certainly possible Ertz resurrects his career somewhere else and at the cost of a 3rd maybe I'd take that chance, but I'm not paying anything more than that.

There have been some reasonable good players with ADPs in the 3rd round over the last 3 years. Goedert, J Allen, Andrews, McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, Gibson, Claypool, Herbert. That's 8 out of 36 picks over the last 3 years and I don't think I could fault someone for taking a ~20% chance on landing a nice young player like those guys over an ~xx% chance of Ertz coming back and being an aging mid/low TE1 at his upside.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

As an owner I wouldn't sell for a 2nd

*Update

He sold Moss for a '22 4th. So the net on the deal for HIM is...

Give 2.10 + '22 4th
Receive Ertz + 3.05

[Pullo Vision]

I've seen various speculation about where Ertz could/will be traded. Haven't seen Tennessee mentioned much/at all. Pair him with potential Julio acquisition and it'd take care of that hole on offense, assuming their current teams help pay the contract.

[jordanzs]

This weekend I saw an owner offload Ertz, David Johnson, and a late 2022 1st for Kittle.

There must be some Ertz truthers out there who believe in his career revival. Go out & find them

[SoShady]

He was cut in one of my 12 team SF dynasty leagues. Ended up grabbing him at the top of the 4th round. Weird draft I got Chase then traded my second and third to move up for D Smith. Followed up by vets in Ertz and L Bel in the 4th and 5th rounds.

[StripesOfKC]

Hold and sell when he signs

He is washed--yeah I know Wentz is flaming hot garbage but still even on his own

Old TEs do not "bounce back" from down years

[ArrylT]

It seems Ertz's injury last year was a high ankle sprain. Those, if I understand correctly, are slow to recover from, and have an effect on the rest of the season regardless. From what I have read it takes about 6 weeks normally for a recovery, but you can still suffer symptoms for up to 6 months after. Davante Adams struggled through one in 2015 and that was the year many people labeled him a bust (to their misfortune). At 30 going 31 in a position with longevity & constant need for on his side it is not likely we've seen the last of him.

I think we'll have a better idea once we see Ertz on the field this year - but if his decline in play in 2020 was due mainly to the issues surrounding a high ankle sprain then a rebound year could be in store. I doubt we'll see a return to consistent top 3-4 production whether he sticks in Philly or goes to a new team, but low end TE1 production could be feasible.

Probably a case if you do not own - to monitor unless you can get at a good discount - whereas if you own and are looking to sell - then holding and waiting for the uncertainty to clear away is likely a better idea. But right now does not seem like the right time to sell.

[slaughterrt]

I know this part is a little league specific, but in a 16 team salary cap/contract league, I was able to get Ertz at the absolute minimum bid (and was the only one to bid). So I have him on a $300k contract, and our salary cap is 80M. Someone else do the math, but it’s dirt cheap and if he can rebound and even put up 600 yards/6TDs, I’ll take that all the way to the bank. Whether it’s in Philly or somewhere else.

What’s not league specific…people are sleeping on Ertz big time and even if he can put up TE2 numbers…it’s a win for the price.

[Pullo Vision]

I know this part is a little league specific, but in a 16 team salary cap/contract league, I was able to get Ertz at the absolute minimum bid (and was the only one to bid). So I have him on a $300k contract, and our salary cap is 80M. Someone else do the math, but it’s dirt cheap and if he can rebound and even put up 600 yards/6TDs, I’ll take that all the way to the bank. Whether it’s in Philly or somewhere else.

What’s not league specific…people are sleeping on Ertz big time and even if he can put up TE2 numbers…it’s a win for the price.

I'm with you on the value proposition but I'm assuming he has too much name cache to try to buy low enough to interest me.

[Ice]

This weekend I saw an owner offload Ertz, David Johnson, and a late 2022 1st for Kittle.

There must be some Ertz truthers out there who believe in his career revival. Go out & find them

Really too early to determine if 2022 is a late first.

Once I was the highest scoring team in the league by around 200 points coming off a championship and had traded my first knowing it was late

Needless to say I was the most unlucky player ever in that league and lost out on Zeke as I finished last as I played the highest scoring team weekly. It was just awful.

Talk about bad beats; second worst ever in my 30 plus years playing FF

[Shoreline Steamers]

Really too early to determine if 2022 is a late first.

Once I was the highest scoring team in the league by around 200 points coming off a championship and had traded my first knowing it was late

Needless to say I was the most unlucky player ever in that league and lost out on Zeke as I finished last as I played the highest scoring team weekly. It was just awful.

Talk about bad beats; second worst ever in my 30 plus years playing FF

Absolutely agree with this. You can only hold and hope with future picks for any given year. There is no way to predict how an upcoming season unfolds, and how it will affect the teams in your league. To do otherwise is folly.

[tresskid84]

It seems Ertz's injury last year was a high ankle sprain. Those, if I understand correctly, are slow to recover from, and have an effect on the rest of the season regardless. From what I have read it takes about 6 weeks normally for a recovery, but you can still suffer symptoms for up to 6 months after. Davante Adams struggled through one in 2015 and that was the year many people labeled him a bust (to their misfortune). At 30 going 31 in a position with longevity & constant need for on his side it is not likely we've seen the last of him.

I think we'll have a better idea once we see Ertz on the field this year - but if his decline in play in 2020 was due mainly to the issues surrounding a high ankle sprain then a rebound year could be in store. I doubt we'll see a return to consistent top 3-4 production whether he sticks in Philly or goes to a new team, but low end TE1 production could be feasible.

Probably a case if you do not own - to monitor unless you can get at a good discount - whereas if you own and are looking to sell - then holding and waiting for the uncertainty to clear away is likely a better idea. But right now does not seem like the right time to sell.

He looked slow/done before the injury. Watch every Eagles game (as an Eagles fan) and I love Ertz, but its over . . . beyond maybe being a red zone target.

[honcho55]

Really too early to determine if 2022 is a late first.

Once I was the highest scoring team in the league by around 200 points coming off a championship and had traded my first knowing it was late

Needless to say I was the most unlucky player ever in that league and lost out on Zeke as I finished last as I played the highest scoring team weekly. It was just awful.

Talk about bad beats; second worst ever in my 30 plus years playing FF

Absolutely agree with this. You can only hold and hope with future picks for any given year. There is no way to predict how an upcoming season unfolds, and how it will affect the teams in your league. To do otherwise is folly.

As with most things, I think the true answer for this lies somewhere in the middle.

I’ve had pretty good success projecting picks, and therefore pretty good success making trades based on those projections. There is indeed plenty of variance, though. So for me, I’ll happily project picks out as far as the league allows trading, just won’t do so with a huge amount of confidence, the further out it is.

Closest quick explanation of my process there: if you are 85% sure a pick is gonna be top 3, value it at 85% of what you think 1.03 that year is worth, minus a little bit.