Zach Ertz Value Thread - Now in Arizona

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Oh, I mean if it’s one of those FFPC keeper leagues then whatever, that’s fine.

Not much change on my end. But for him, he would not buy at 3.01 but would for the above. Got to see if from their perspective.

Well yeah, but that’s not really applicable to dynasty leagues. The marginal difference between Ertz and his last keeper is way smaller than the difference between Ertz and the worst guy on an average dynasty roster. That’s why he’s willing to pay less.

Good point. For reference, here are his three bubble players that he would have other choices of:

Tua (he has Burrrow and Kyler)
Z Moss
Mike Williams

the rest are objectively kept

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Not much change on my end. But for him, he would not buy at 3.01 but would for the above. Got to see if from their perspective.

Well yeah, but that’s not really applicable to dynasty leagues. The marginal difference between Ertz and his last keeper is way smaller than the difference between Ertz and the worst guy on an average dynasty roster. That’s why he’s willing to pay less.

Good point. For reference, here are his three bubble players that he would have other choices of:

Tua (he has Burrrow and Kyler)
Z Moss
Mike Williams

the rest are objectively kept

If he is unable to sell Moss, etc. you can view it like Moss + 2.10 for Ertz + 3.05 which actually washes that point out a little too tho.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Well yeah, but that’s not really applicable to dynasty leagues. The marginal difference between Ertz and his last keeper is way smaller than the difference between Ertz and the worst guy on an average dynasty roster. That’s why he’s willing to pay less.

Good point. For reference, here are his three bubble players that he would have other choices of:

Tua (he has Burrrow and Kyler)
Z Moss
Mike Williams

the rest are objectively kept

If he is unable to sell Moss, etc. you can view it like Moss + 2.10 for Ertz + 3.05 which actually washes that point out a little too tho.

That’s exactly the point I was trying to make. This is why you couldn’t get the 3.01 for Ertz straight up.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Good point. For reference, here are his three bubble players that he would have other choices of:

Tua (he has Burrrow and Kyler)
Z Moss
Mike Williams

the rest are objectively kept

If he is unable to sell Moss, etc. you can view it like Moss + 2.10 for Ertz + 3.05 which actually washes that point out a little too tho.

That’s exactly the point I was trying to make. This is why you couldn’t get the 3.01 for Ertz straight up.

Time will tell w the if/what he sells Moss at

[dynastyninja]

As an owner I wouldn't sell for a 2nd

[Pac_Eddy]

FWIW I think I'd pay a 2nd but not a first if I needed a TE. I'd sell for a mid to early 2nd if I wanted to move him. A third is just too little by a longshot.

[SteelLake]

I’d sell for a 3. I’m only in 2 leagues, but that seems like going rate for player like him in both. Having an elite TE is super valuable, but then there’s always tons of guys available for nearly nothing who put up same. I don’t really see likely scenario of ertz becoming elite again.

I’d understand if a believer and need more than a 3, but the “late first” discussion kind of shocked me, I won’t lie

[dynastyninja]

I’d sell for a 3. I’m only in 2 leagues, but that seems like going rate for player like him in both. Having an elite TE is super valuable, but then there’s always tons of guys available for nearly nothing who put up same. I don’t really see likely scenario of ertz becoming elite again.

I’d understand if a believer and need more than a 3, but the “late first” discussion kind of shocked me, I won’t lie

My experience with TEs varies greatly from yours apparently. It's consistently the hardest position in my view.

[CGW]

I’d sell for a 3. I’m only in 2 leagues, but that seems like going rate for player like him in both. Having an elite TE is super valuable, but then there’s always tons of guys available for nearly nothing who put up same. I don’t really see likely scenario of ertz becoming elite again.

I’d understand if a believer and need more than a 3, but the “late first” discussion kind of shocked me, I won’t lie

My experience with TEs varies greatly from yours apparently. It's consistently the hardest position in my view.

Agreed. Every year there are a dozen guys lumped into the back end TE1 conversation but it's so difficult to predict who it will be. I feel like I am always chasing a backup TE, and never manage to get one just laying around on waivers for cheap and no1 trades decent TEs for reasonable prices.

Maybe that's because all my leagues are deep rosters...but right now the best TE on waivers are Reed, Rudolph, and Hollister. I'm not comfortable starting any of them.

[Cameron Giles]

I’d sell for a 3. I’m only in 2 leagues, but that seems like going rate for player like him in both. Having an elite TE is super valuable, but then there’s always tons of guys available for nearly nothing who put up same. I don’t really see likely scenario of ertz becoming elite again.

I’d understand if a believer and need more than a 3, but the “late first” discussion kind of shocked me, I won’t lie

Until this season, Ertz the last 5 seasons has at least 70 receptions and 800 receiving yards. That's high-end TE production. Add in a reasonable amount of TDs and you're talking about 175-190 PPR points. Those amount of points are good enough for Top 6 TE production the last 4 seasons.

It just doesn't make much sense that a TE with that upside and a proven track record, who isn't even old for positional standards is worth some random 3rd round rookie pick. 3rd round picks in a typical draft are usually roster clogger players who don't even play much or at all as rookies. In other words, if they even become fantasy relevant, you're excited.

Ertz is still good enough that he can go somewhere, play every down, and command 100+ targets.

[SteelLake]

I’d sell for a 3. I’m only in 2 leagues, but that seems like going rate for player like him in both. Having an elite TE is super valuable, but then there’s always tons of guys available for nearly nothing who put up same. I don’t really see likely scenario of ertz becoming elite again.

I’d understand if a believer and need more than a 3, but the “late first” discussion kind of shocked me, I won’t lie

Until this season, Ertz the last 5 seasons has at least 70 receptions and 800 receiving yards. That's high-end TE production. Add in a reasonable amount of TDs and you're talking about 175-190 PPR points. Those amount of points are good enough for Top 6 TE production the last 4 seasons.

It just doesn't make much sense that a TE with that upside and a proven track record, who isn't even old for positional standards is worth some random 3rd round rookie pick. 3rd round picks in a typical draft are usually roster clogger players who don't even play much or at all as rookies. In other words, if they even become fantasy relevant, you're excited.

Ertz is still good enough that he can go somewhere, play every down, and command 100+ targets.

Yea, he might come close to those numbers, but I’m still seeing him as very low end TE1 as ceiling. He’s turning 31 next year, was main weapon in Philly, etc. Maybe I’m wrong

Maybe I also value TE’s wrong. I either acquire / develop a super elite TE (Gronk, Kelce, Kittle, graham type over the years) or find an Ebron type for nearly nothing. It’s worked for me. Maybe I’ve just been lucky in finding useable TE’s. Maybe my leagues have smaller rosters (280 SF and 324 regular players owned)

[remedy29]

If Ertz had a good 2020 season, I'd have zero interest in him for a 2021 first in the off season. I'd never trade for an old TE, off a bad year, with an unknown situation in 2021. We have no idea where he is playing next year, no idea if any teams actually want him, to think he can walk into a new situation and command 100 targets.

Now, if Ertz was having a great 2021 season, you can begin to request a 2022 first during the season with a competing team in need of a TE.

So his upside value is a late 2022 first, his current value is a 2021 late 2nd/early 3rd and his low value is waiver wire fodder.

[Anteaters]

Maybe I also value TE’s wrong. I either acquire / develop a super elite TE (Gronk, Kelce, Kittle, graham type over the years) or find an Ebron type for nearly nothing. It’s worked for me. Maybe I’ve just been lucky in finding useable TE’s. Maybe my leagues have smaller rosters (280 SF and 324 regular players owned)

My take on TEs is get the best or just pick over what's left.

In any given year, after the top 2 or 3 TEs, the next ten are all basically the same. In one league I'm in, Kelce (21.5pts/gm), Waller (18.2) and Kittle (16.2) were the top 3 by pts/gm. After that, there are tens guys between 12.2-10.1, and let's just be honest now and say not many of us can choose who will be #4 and who will be #12.

So, if the 4th TE off the board is going to cost me a 4th rd pick, and the 12th TE is going to cost me a 12th rd pick, I'm taking that 12th projected TE every year and using my 4th rd pick on a WR/RB with the upside swing of 8-14 pts/gm, not a TE with an upside swing of 1.1 pts/gm.

I respect owners who shoot that 5th rd pick on a TE and hit a home run. I don't have the talent to do that with TEs, and I do it better with WR/RB/QB

[Shoreline Steamers]

Just my take, and maybe a little too much conjecture. But it seems to me that Philly made it known Wentz was available for trade. When it became clear that no team was willing to offer up a "Stafford" package for his services, they pivoted and made it known that Ertz was also available in trade as well in an attempt to up the ante in a package deal.

Indy wasn't interested in Ertz apparently. And I've heard of no teams making offers for his services. Value him as you will for fantasy. But I certainly wouldn't pay a late 1st for him. Maybe a mid/late 2nd. But no more. If he's on your roster, I wouldn't blame you for holding if you don't get an offer you like.

But let's not pretend that Ertz is an ascending talent, or even one who's value has held steady over the past year. And for context, my dynasty teams aren't PPR, so his 70-ish catches and 800 yards don't do anything for me. It simply makes him another name in the hopper of recyclable TE's. And he's on the wrong side of 30.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Just my take, and maybe a little too much conjecture. But it seems to me that Philly made it known Wentz was available for trade. When it became clear that no team was willing to offer up a "Stafford" package for his services, they pivoted and made it known that Ertz was also available in trade as well in an attempt to up the ante in a package deal.

Indy wasn't interested in Ertz apparently. And I've heard of no teams making offers for his services. Value him as you will for fantasy. But I certainly wouldn't pay a late 1st for him. Maybe a mid/late 2nd. But no more. If he's on your roster, I wouldn't blame you for holding if you don't get an offer you like.

But let's not pretend that Ertz is an ascending talent, or even one who's value has held steady over the past year. And for context, my dynasty teams aren't PPR, so his 70-ish catches and 800 yards don't do anything for me. It simply makes him another name in the hopper of recyclable TE's. And he's on the wrong side of 30.

It’s possible that their read of the situation is that Ertz is getting cut, in which case, why trade for him and give up draft capital to pay more for him?