Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[wickerkat1212]

Have watched a solid amount of film at this point and I am just enamored with Pitts. He is completely dominant. Huge frame, fast as hell, catches everything, very humble guy but extremely passionate on the field. He just looks different out there - way too grown up for college ball at 20 years old. It would not surprise me to see him become the dynasty TE1 in his rookie year. I am higher on him than Chase/Smith/Najee.

How early would you go in on him? I have picks #7, #8, and #11. I'm worried that may not be early ENOUGH.

If its SF you'' prolly be good. 1qb though my guess is the average will be 1.05, 1.06

One is SF, two are standard.

[Cameron Giles]

I really like Rondale Moore.

He would've been an easy Top 5 pick in this class, but circumstances are going to drop him. Dominated the Big 10 as a freshman, missed most of his sophomore season with an injury and only played 3 games out of 6 this year.

[OhCruelestRanter]

The guy right now who isn’t getting enough love is Amon-Ra St. Brown. Top recruit, broke out as an 18 year old true freshman at a legit program despite playing next to an NFL-bound junior in Michael Pittman. He was also used in the return game and saw some carries (although none this last year). That’s a good profile.

Chris Olave also seems like a guy I’m going to be scooping up in the second.

[StripesOfKC]

The guy right now who isn’t getting enough love is Amon-Ra St. Brown. Top recruit, broke out as an 18 year old true freshman at a legit program despite playing next to an NFL-bound junior in Michael Pittman. He was also used in the return game and saw some carries (although none this last year). That’s a good profile.

Chris Olave also seems like a guy I’m going to be scooping up in the second.

Unfortunately he chose to return to school for some weird reason

[OhCruelestRanter]

The guy right now who isn’t getting enough love is Amon-Ra St. Brown. Top recruit, broke out as an 18 year old true freshman at a legit program despite playing next to an NFL-bound junior in Michael Pittman. He was also used in the return game and saw some carries (although none this last year). That’s a good profile.

Chris Olave also seems like a guy I’m going to be scooping up in the second.

Unfortunately he chose to return to school for some weird reason

Ah damn. Didn’t realize that.

[krtbuckeye]

I'll be honest, I didn't read all 7 pages of the thread, so he may have already been discussed, but I think the guy I'm most interested in seeing where they land right now is Javonte Williams. I usually lean talent over scenario, but I think this guy's talent is right up there with Harris and Etienne, he just lacked their exposure. I he lands in a good spot, I would be tempted to take him with my lottery pick.

[remedy29]

OhCluelessRanter, that you are.

Oh man, slightly changing somebody’s name is hilarious. I imagine you emit a hearty chuckle when you read an internet comment calling LeBron James “LeFraud”. I take it back, you’re a genius.

Who are these 90% of senior breakout WR that compare to Aiyuk? Seems like you are grouping NFL 3rd round senior WRs with 1st round WRs, which your name makes you correct, you are clueless.

Here’s an excellent piece by Rich Hribar breaking down the basic numbers. You’ve given me cause to doubt that you’ll comprehend even a tiny bit of it, but I figured it was worth posting in case somebody with a non-Forrest Gump IQ stumbles across your disorganized, emotional screaming. https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/f ... receivers/

Does Toney situation, as a you know a QB not WR, and injured junior year not factor into why he only broke out his Senior year? He is a raw WR prospect with phenomenal athletic ability, with the ball in his hands, shown in all 4 years of college. Sure he is a boom or bust WR prospect, but I did say I hope to grab him at 2.03, which is right around his current rookie ADP. Personally, when viewing this year's WR prospects, I think Toney can be drafted in the NFL 1st round and his ADP will shoot up into the top 12.

Yeah. And he’ll be a low probability bet before that point. He stilled played in 7 games as a junior, and in those 7 games he amassed 10 catches and rushed 12 times for 59 yards. I don’t think that’s particularly encouraging.

Here are the things to like- even when he wasn’t producing as a wide receiver, his team got him involved in the running game and on special teams. So that’s encouraging. He played with NFL pass catchers in Van Jefferson and Kyle Pitts. He still seems like a worse bet than at least Chase, Waddle, Smith, Moore, Bateman, and Marshall just off the top of my head.

The best case for Toney might just be that he goes in the first round, and this ends up as a terrible class, with no RBs in good spots other than Harris and Etienne.

First off, I mentioned that I liked Kadarius Toney and hoped to get him at 2.03. Which is near his current ADP. Not sure why you change the subject and rank him with the top of the class. Nobody put him on that pedestal, but you.
Second, I mentioned now I know why Brandon Aiyuk, who was the 6th WR in a loaded WR draft class, a 1st round selection and by a team that traded up for him, was incorrectly ranked as the 9th or 10th rookie WR by some. You come back with justification on why the ADP was incorrect. Who cares why it was incorrect?!? Most people strive to be correct. The ADP folks took a very skilled WR and dropped him due to some bias that you clearly demonstrate. That was my point, your bias.

Now to discuss the article you provided about Senior Year WR vs early declare WR. First off, it is not a new concept that players with an early breakout age, and hence early declare players, will be good fantasy assets. So do not go around acting like you are some genius in this regard. Everyone knows this.
What I do not understand, is the article first groups ALL WR’s together. Then it narrows down the WR’s into the top 3 rounds. While the article correctly drops out the bottom ranked WR’s, it does not separate out the top ranked WR’s. Certainly stud prospects like AJ Green, Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Jerry Jeudy, Ceedee Lamb should not categorized as just another random 1st, these were highly regarded prospects by all.

The article then narrows down the criteria to the 1st round WRs. I already discussed the flawed logic with including highly regarding WR prospects with all 1st rounds as equal, they are not. However the article discusses Senior year WR’s. 9 in total. This mostly includes WR’s from 2015-2017. 3 poor years for WR success. Amari Cooper was an obvious stud prospect during these 3 years, but given all the other players, tell me, if the Senior declare WR’s were the wrong choice, who were the correct choices? Certainly none of the early declare 1st round WR’s from those years. You will have to randomly choose 2nd & 3rd round WR’s to find the “correct” choice those years, some of which are also Senior year WR’s (Cooper Kupp).

In addition, you incorrectly group 10 years’ worth of WR’s performance together while rookie drafts are done in a singular year. You do not get the choice to cherry pick prospects. Each year, you only have the current group of WR prospects to choose from. Not all will be Amari Cooper, AJ Green, Julio Jones level of a prospect. Most will have some flaws which will lead to their lower than 100% hit rate. Some of those flaws will be “Senior year breakout” or “Senior Year declare” WR, but if you follow the advice of the article, “Being an early declare wide out paired with draft capital is the most probable bucket for future fantasy success, but even that is no sure thing. I also would never suggest you take one lone component and base a hard rule of player selection around it.”

So, while you pound your chest in being justified for being incorrect in lowering Brandon Aiyuk ADP because he was a Senior Year WR, I for one will not be “fooled” by future Senior Year WR’s, I will focus on their physical talent, their collegiate performance and their NFL draft capitol.

[remedy29]

The guy right now who isn’t getting enough love is Amon-Ra St. Brown. Top recruit, broke out as an 18 year old true freshman at a legit program despite playing next to an NFL-bound junior in Michael Pittman. He was also used in the return game and saw some carries (although none this last year). That’s a good profile.

Chris Olave also seems like a guy I’m going to be scooping up in the second.

Unfortunately he chose to return to school for some weird reason

Ah damn. Didn’t realize that.

Well you are the CluelessRanter...

So you were interested in Chris Olave talent as a junior, had he declared, what will your thoughts be on him as a Senior year WR now that he has a lower "probability of fantasy success" as his early declare WR counterparts?

and for the record, Chris Olive the junior = Chris Olive the senior...he is the same person! Perhaps he gets to prove his worth more in his Senior year, like Devonta Smith, than he was able to in his junior year.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Unfortunately he chose to return to school for some weird reason

Ah damn. Didn’t realize that.

Well you are the CluelessRanter...

So you were interested in Chris Olave talent as a junior, had he declared, what will your thoughts be on him as a Senior year WR now that he has a lower "probability of fantasy success" as his early declare WR counterparts?

and for the record, Chris Olive the junior = Chris Olive the senior...he is the same person! Perhaps he gets to prove his worth more in his Senior year, like Devonta Smith, than he was able to in his junior year.

Your first post was a giant brick wall of text that could have been more eloquently stated had you just typed “I don’t understand sample sizes.” The data is the data. You can’t just remove “obvious studs” because that’s not a real criteria, it’s retrospective analysis that invalidates your premise. I can explain why one exception doesn’t invalidate an entire trend, but I can’t understand it for you.

This one is more simple. Olave deciding to go back to school is a data point. He went back to school- generally when guys are high end talents, they get a signal from the NFL/agents that it’s time to come out and not worth it to go back and risk injury.

Even you can understand how this is important. Draft capital reflects how one team felt about that player. The informed decision to declare early should better reflect how the whole NFL player evaluation industrial complex feels about a player.

Of course I’m changing my mind on Olave when presented with new data. That’s the thing about thinking through these things like an adult. I understand that I don’t have some crystal ball. When I get new information, I’ll change my mind. Same goes for Toney. I don’t like him as a prospect, because he lacks historical markers of success, but if he kills his workouts and gets drafted in the first to a great situation, then much like Aiyuk I’ll adapt my thinking.

Finally- a capitol is a building in which a legislative body meets- ours was stormed by terrorists earlier this month. You’re looking for “capital.” Again, clearly I was wrong. You’re a genius.

[CGW]

All this high horsing is really advancing the discussion about incoming rookies.

[Ice]

All this high horsing is really advancing the discussion about incoming rookies.

Wait; Are we talking about Jr or Sr declare rookies?

News Flash

That ancient 22 year old Devonta Smith is going to be very good and that baby soon to be 21 Jamar is also the real deal!

Have Fun!

[CL3VELANDBR0WNS]

Kyle Pitts. I passed on Jefferson early last year because I thought I could get him later.... I won't make the same mistake with Pitts. Fully plan on making him the 4th overall pick in my main league. You don't let talent like that slip down the board and I don't really see who would rival him at #4. I have far more questions about Etienne, Waddle, and the field after the top 3. Kyle Pitts checks every box and looks like the best TE prospect we've ever seen.

I think Trey Lance will be another guy I'm high on if the hype continues to dwindle. He's a complete dart throw as a passer but at 2nd/3rd round value, you are potentially returning a player with Lamar Jackson level upside. I like that as a trade asset rather than deciding which coin flip WR to take a swing at.

Would you go Pitts or Bateman?

I guess it depends on you situation. But lets say everything being equal

Bateman. My top 4 are #1 Chase, #2 Bateman, #3 Harris, #4 Pitts
Pretty firm on Chase at #1 but landing spot could shuffle #2-4 with a possibility of a surprise rise from Etienne or Smith if either land in the absolutely ideal situation.
Rashod Bateman has zero red flags if he goes to any other team besides the Bears.

[StripesOfKC]

Kyle Pitts. I passed on Jefferson early last year because I thought I could get him later.... I won't make the same mistake with Pitts. Fully plan on making him the 4th overall pick in my main league. You don't let talent like that slip down the board and I don't really see who would rival him at #4. I have far more questions about Etienne, Waddle, and the field after the top 3. Kyle Pitts checks every box and looks like the best TE prospect we've ever seen.

I think Trey Lance will be another guy I'm high on if the hype continues to dwindle. He's a complete dart throw as a passer but at 2nd/3rd round value, you are potentially returning a player with Lamar Jackson level upside. I like that as a trade asset rather than deciding which coin flip WR to take a swing at.

Would you go Pitts or Bateman?

I guess it depends on you situation. But lets say everything being equal

Bateman. My top 4 are #1 Chase, #2 Bateman, #3 Harris, #4 Pitts
Pretty firm on Chase at #1 but landing spot could shuffle #2-4 with a possibility of a surprise rise from Etienne or Smith if either land in the absolutely ideal situation.
Rashod Bateman has zero red flags if he goes to any other team besides the Bears.

Ravens are an even worse landing spot IMO

[cantguardjake]

The OhCruelestRanter playbook:

- respond to a poster showing interest in Toney, proclaiming people will be fooled by senior season breakouts until the end of time

- poster responds that seniors should be judged on merit, citing other extenuating circumstances in their profile such as draft capital

- OCR smuggly belittle poster for his inferior intellect

- has it pointed out that he himself drafted a senior season breakout

- OCR immediately backpedals stating he did so due to other extenuating circumstances such as draft capital, and would consider Toney based on this (amongst other factors such as workout metrics, which the original poster also mentioned) - thus actually agreeing with original poster he belittled

- still arguing for some reason

Rinse, repeat lol

[alewilliam789]

Oh yeah. He was a first round WR that I could get in the middle of the 2nd round- after guys like Vaughn and even Moss in one league. But I wasn’t touting him as some great prospect either, I just didn’t see the difference between him and other flawed prospects like Pittman and Mims.

I would have loved it if Aiyuk pushed Jefferson or Higgins down to me so I could have an extra share of them, but that never happened. Instead I picked up capital to move off Pittman/Mims and ended up with Aiyuk. Same thing for Toney. I don’t want him, and I hope he pushes Moore and Co. down. But if he gets drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and I can still take him at the 2.08 or something, I might end up pulling the trigger.

Whilst I don’t disagree with you that response is a far cry from calling someone “intellectually destitute” for daring to suggest a senior wide receiver like Aiyuk should be evaluated on individual merit, which you literally just did

Ah, read my post again.

The intellectually destitute are the ones who cite an exception to the trend as proof that the trend is incorrect.

Imagine if I told you that your chances of rolling a 12 were 1/36, and that you went ahead, rolled dice 36 times, and then when you finally got a 12, gloated that “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” You’d look like an absolute moron.

Liking a low-probability prospect like Toney doesn’t in and of itself make somebody dumb, that would be crazy. Defending a low probability player by saying “well one time a low probability player ‘late bloomer’ WAS GOOD” is the dumb part. These people don’t understand even the most basic ideas of probability and are incapable of thinking about things analytically. Hence: intellectually destitute.

^^^
Even in the outliers there’s trends and that is that they are absolutely freak athletes amongst peers that are the same height. If you look at all the WR anomalies from a draft capital/production standpoint most of them are 85%+ percentile athletes (Edelman, Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin, Mike Wallace, Victor Cruz)