Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[remedy29]

Oh yeah. He was a first round WR that I could get in the middle of the 2nd round- after guys like Vaughn and even Moss in one league. But I wasn’t touting him as some great prospect either, I just didn’t see the difference between him and other flawed prospects like Pittman and Mims.

I would have loved it if Aiyuk pushed Jefferson or Higgins down to me so I could have an extra share of them, but that never happened. Instead I picked up capital to move off Pittman/Mims and ended up with Aiyuk. Same thing for Toney. I don’t want him, and I hope he pushes Moore and Co. down. But if he gets drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and I can still take him at the 2.08 or something, I might end up pulling the trigger.

Whilst I don’t disagree with you that response is a far cry from calling someone “intellectually destitute” for daring to suggest a senior wide receiver like Aiyuk should be evaluated on individual merit, which you literally just did

Ah, read my post again.

The intellectually destitute are the ones who cite an exception to the trend as proof that the trend is incorrect.

Imagine if I told you that your chances of rolling a 12 were 1/36, and that you went ahead, rolled dice 36 times, and then when you finally got a 12, gloated that “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” You’d look like an absolute moron.

Liking a low-probability prospect like Toney doesn’t in and of itself make somebody dumb, that would be crazy. Defending a low probability player by saying “well one time a low probability player ‘late bloomer’ WAS GOOD” is the dumb part. These people don’t understand even the most basic ideas of probability and are incapable of thinking about things analytically. Hence: intellectually destitute.

Oh Clueless one, again, tell me the 90% of WR that fit into Aiyuk category as a senior year breakout WR that got drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft and busted? Your clueless rant is grouping all senior year WR into 1 category to support your arrogant stance on senior WR.

[CGW]

These players with red flags are typically significantly discounted in rookie drafts. If people were taking Aiyuk in the mid 1st before Jefferson/Lamb/Jeudy, it was a reach. But no one was. He was drafted in the mid 2nd because of his red flags.

Hypothetically, your early/mid 1st round rookie who checks all the boxes has a 50% chance of hitting. The 2nd round rookie with the red flag of being old has a 10% chance. If cost was similar, you would always choose the 1st rounder. But its not equal. It costs at least 10 times more to acquire an quality 1st over a 2nd round pick.

[OhCruelestRanter]

OhCluelessRanter, that you are.

Oh man, slightly changing somebody’s name is hilarious. I imagine you emit a hearty chuckle when you read an internet comment calling LeBron James “LeFraud”. I take it back, you’re a genius.

Who are these 90% of senior breakout WR that compare to Aiyuk? Seems like you are grouping NFL 3rd round senior WRs with 1st round WRs, which your name makes you correct, you are clueless.

Here’s an excellent piece by Rich Hribar breaking down the basic numbers. You’ve given me cause to doubt that you’ll comprehend even a tiny bit of it, but I figured it was worth posting in case somebody with a non-Forrest Gump IQ stumbles across your disorganized, emotional screaming. https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/f ... receivers/

Does Toney situation, as a you know a QB not WR, and injured junior year not factor into why he only broke out his Senior year? He is a raw WR prospect with phenomenal athletic ability, with the ball in his hands, shown in all 4 years of college. Sure he is a boom or bust WR prospect, but I did say I hope to grab him at 2.03, which is right around his current rookie ADP. Personally, when viewing this year's WR prospects, I think Toney can be drafted in the NFL 1st round and his ADP will shoot up into the top 12.

Yeah. And he’ll be a low probability bet before that point. He stilled played in 7 games as a junior, and in those 7 games he amassed 10 catches and rushed 12 times for 59 yards. I don’t think that’s particularly encouraging.

Here are the things to like- even when he wasn’t producing as a wide receiver, his team got him involved in the running game and on special teams. So that’s encouraging. He played with NFL pass catchers in Van Jefferson and Kyle Pitts. He still seems like a worse bet than at least Chase, Waddle, Smith, Moore, Bateman, and Marshall just off the top of my head.

The best case for Toney might just be that he goes in the first round, and this ends up as a terrible class, with no RBs in good spots other than Harris and Etienne.

[MEuRaH]

I haven't read this thread and I don't know if anybody has said it yet, but Rondale Moore for me.

I saw this kid killing defenses and carrying his team as a Freshman, and I almost never pay attention to college ball. I know he was hurt and I know he's undersized but I don't care. The talent was mesmerizing.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I haven't read this thread and I don't know if anybody has said it yet, but Rondale Moore for me.

I saw this kid killing defenses and carrying his team as a Freshman, and I almost never pay attention to college ball. I know he was hurt and I know he's undersized but I don't care. The talent was mesmerizing.

Agreed. He’s a freak, and he’s shaping up as a late 1st right now.

[wickerkat1212]

Good stuff, guys, appreciate the lively debate.

[Footballisacoolsport]

Have watched a solid amount of film at this point and I am just enamored with Pitts. He is completely dominant. Huge frame, fast as hell, catches everything, very humble guy but extremely passionate on the field. He just looks different out there - way too grown up for college ball at 20 years old. It would not surprise me to see him become the dynasty TE1 in his rookie year. I am higher on him than Chase/Smith/Najee.

[Ice]

Have watched a solid amount of film at this point and I am just enamored with Pitts. He is completely dominant. Huge frame, fast as hell, catches everything, very humble guy but extremely passionate on the field. He just looks different out there - way too grown up for college ball at 20 years old. It would not surprise me to see him become the dynasty TE1 in his rookie year. I am higher on him than Chase/Smith/Najee.

Very Bold.

I have a mid 1st round grade on him and really like the player but I would be shocked if was even in the top 7 his rookie year. He ultimately could be the best but TE is a very difficult position to learn at the NFL level. These players need to learn all the line calls and routes. That process doesn't happen overnight especially given the complex line blocking utilized these days. He will need add weight to be a real legit 3 down TE that doesn't leave the field.

Complicating matters further developing Chemistry with the QB takes time especially after chipping a linemen or a blitzing player.

The TE position is so hard they fall in dynasty drafts as the window to just very good is a good 3 years in most cases.

You need to have a lot of patience to draft a TE early in Dynasty.

[cantguardjake]

Oh yeah. He was a first round WR that I could get in the middle of the 2nd round- after guys like Vaughn and even Moss in one league. But I wasn’t touting him as some great prospect either, I just didn’t see the difference between him and other flawed prospects like Pittman and Mims.

I would have loved it if Aiyuk pushed Jefferson or Higgins down to me so I could have an extra share of them, but that never happened. Instead I picked up capital to move off Pittman/Mims and ended up with Aiyuk. Same thing for Toney. I don’t want him, and I hope he pushes Moore and Co. down. But if he gets drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and I can still take him at the 2.08 or something, I might end up pulling the trigger.

Whilst I don’t disagree with you that response is a far cry from calling someone “intellectually destitute” for daring to suggest a senior wide receiver like Aiyuk should be evaluated on individual merit, which you literally just did

Ah, read my post again.

The intellectually destitute are the ones who cite an exception to the trend as proof that the trend is incorrect.

Imagine if I told you that your chances of rolling a 12 were 1/36, and that you went ahead, rolled dice 36 times, and then when you finally got a 12, gloated that “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” You’d look like an absolute moron.

Liking a low-probability prospect like Toney doesn’t in and of itself make somebody dumb, that would be crazy. Defending a low probability player by saying “well one time a low probability player ‘late bloomer’ WAS GOOD” is the dumb part. These people don’t understand even the most basic ideas of probability and are incapable of thinking about things analytically. Hence: intellectually destitute.

That’s a terrible analogy lol

As for the second paragraph, he pretty clearly stated Aiyuk was different to the sub set of players you initially lumped him in with (senior year breakouts) due to his first round draft capital, which is the exact reason you have mentioned multiple times for having drafted him despite being part of said sub set - so congratulations on arguing with yourself, I guess?

[murphysxm]

Bringing us back on point, what are thoughts on Kenny Gainwell. Seems like he is being lost in the shuffle after opting out

[Sriracha]

Bringing us back on point, what are thoughts on Kenny Gainwell. Seems like he is being lost in the shuffle after opting out

5'11 191lb isn't that exciting to me. Looks good, but combine (or pro day if that's where things end up) is going to be big for him. Might end up as just another scatback.

He becomes very, very interesting to me if he can bulk up to 205 by the draft.

[wickerkat1212]

Have watched a solid amount of film at this point and I am just enamored with Pitts. He is completely dominant. Huge frame, fast as hell, catches everything, very humble guy but extremely passionate on the field. He just looks different out there - way too grown up for college ball at 20 years old. It would not surprise me to see him become the dynasty TE1 in his rookie year. I am higher on him than Chase/Smith/Najee.

How early would you go in on him? I have picks #7, #8, and #11. I'm worried that may not be early ENOUGH.

[ThunderTung]

Have watched a solid amount of film at this point and I am just enamored with Pitts. He is completely dominant. Huge frame, fast as hell, catches everything, very humble guy but extremely passionate on the field. He just looks different out there - way too grown up for college ball at 20 years old. It would not surprise me to see him become the dynasty TE1 in his rookie year. I am higher on him than Chase/Smith/Najee.

How early would you go in on him? I have picks #7, #8, and #11. I'm worried that may not be early ENOUGH.

If its SF you'' prolly be good. 1qb though my guess is the average will be 1.05, 1.06

[Footballisacoolsport]

Have watched a solid amount of film at this point and I am just enamored with Pitts. He is completely dominant. Huge frame, fast as hell, catches everything, very humble guy but extremely passionate on the field. He just looks different out there - way too grown up for college ball at 20 years old. It would not surprise me to see him become the dynasty TE1 in his rookie year. I am higher on him than Chase/Smith/Najee.

How early would you go in on him? I have picks #7, #8, and #11. I'm worried that may not be early ENOUGH.

I'm at 1.02 and would like to move down to 4 or 5 to draft him, but if I can't move back to those spots I'll be in quite the bind.

[hankmurphy]

If Rhamondre Stevenson goes to PIT or ATL I’ll be all over it.