Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[wickerkat1212]

Following.

[wickerkat1212]

I have a feeling I am going to have a lot of Terrace Marshall Jr shares

I was just going to post this. I like LSU WRs, and big WRs. I pick in the #7-11 range which seems about right for him.

Also, all in on Pitts.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Kadarius Toney looks like an absolute stud player. I hope he last to 2.03, but I think he will be gone by then.

I think people are going to be fooled by these senior breakouts until the end of time. I hope he pushes down Bateman and Moore.

100%

Also add Terrace and Tamorrion to that list

Agreed, although I’m presently higher on Marshall. Interested in how Terry runs.

[yinzername]

For conversation’s sake, in my 12t SF I currently have Marshall, Terry and Toney ranked 2.4, 2.8 and 2.12 respectively, and thats WR 5, 8 and 9.

I have all 6 QBs in the conversation ranked ahead of them currently

[Ice]

If I were Joe Burrow I'd threaten to demand a trade if the Bengals even think about not selecting OL in the first

I can't wrap my head around how awful a choice Smith or Chase would be. It's a pick that keeps awful franchises awful forever

idc how bad of a choice it is, I would LOOOVE to see Chase and Burrow reunited. I think it would boost Chase to the 1.01 across the board

Agree here. Bengals absolutely need OL help, but if they can get Chase or another high end WR, that also helps Burrow, assuming they address the OL in free agency & later in the draft.

There are a couple of top 5 quality O Lineman in this draft. The Bengals would be fools IMO to pass on one for any WR.

Obviously fantasy football players would love to see the WR but NFL wise that would be crazy especially already haven lost their franchise to injury. Protecting him is easily job 1.

Big Great LT prospects don't grow on trees.

[remedy29]

Kadarius Toney looks like an absolute stud player. I hope he last to 2.03, but I think he will be gone by then.

I think people are going to be fooled by these senior breakouts until the end of time. I hope he pushes down Bateman and Moore.

100%

Also add Terrace and Tamorrion to that list

Seems like simplistic, narrow minded analysis. Shouldn't a player's circumstances, obvious athleticism and production be analyzed for all prospects?

Now I know why super talented players like Brandon Aiyuk can have 8 or 9 rookie WRs ranked ahead of him going into his rookie draft, despite his pure superior physical talent and 1st round draft capital.

[cantguardjake]

I think people are going to be fooled by these senior breakouts until the end of time. I hope he pushes down Bateman and Moore.

100%

Also add Terrace and Tamorrion to that list

Seems like simplistic, narrow minded analysis. Shouldn't a player's circumstances, obvious athleticism and production be analyzed for all prospects?

Now I know why super talented players like Brandon Aiyuk can have 8 or 9 rookie WRs ranked ahead of him going into his rookie draft, despite his pure superior physical talent and 1st round draft capital.

Toney and Terry are my two personal favourite receivers this draft. Not from a fantasy perspective, but they’re so fun to watch.

ADP is creeping up for both of them though, comparative to what they are as fantasy prospects.

I don’t care about them being Seniors with one year of production, however their film isn’t as good as Aiyuk and Claypools last year (both of which I was high on) - but they’re trending in the direction that they might cost more.

Still love them as college players though

[OhCruelestRanter]

I think people are going to be fooled by these senior breakouts until the end of time. I hope he pushes down Bateman and Moore.

100%

Also add Terrace and Tamorrion to that list

Seems like simplistic, narrow minded analysis. Shouldn't a player's circumstances, obvious athleticism and production be analyzed for all prospects?

Now I know why super talented players like Brandon Aiyuk can have 8 or 9 rookie WRs ranked ahead of him going into his rookie draft, despite his pure superior physical talent and 1st round draft capital.

This is my favorite response. You explain why a certain subset of players are risky- be it senior WRs, slow RBs, QBs who only start for one year, whatever. You can show them that subset X busts 90 percent of the time, and they come back with “10% of the time they hit!” as though it’s a comeback.

These people are intellectually destitute and not worth conversing with. Sadly, they seem to be multiplying here.

[cantguardjake]

100%

Also add Terrace and Tamorrion to that list

Seems like simplistic, narrow minded analysis. Shouldn't a player's circumstances, obvious athleticism and production be analyzed for all prospects?

Now I know why super talented players like Brandon Aiyuk can have 8 or 9 rookie WRs ranked ahead of him going into his rookie draft, despite his pure superior physical talent and 1st round draft capital.

This is my favorite response. You explain why a certain subset of players are risky- be it senior WRs, slow RBs, QBs who only start for one year, whatever. You can show them that subset X busts 90 percent of the time, and they come back with “10% of the time they hit!” as though it’s a comeback.

These people are intellectually destitute and not worth conversing with. Sadly, they seem to be multiplying here.

Didn’t you draft Aiyuk though lol

[StripesOfKC]

At his draft price I am thinking I am going to have quite a few Elijah Moore shares. I don't think he is getting any hype really as of now and ticks a lot of my boxes

[OhCruelestRanter]

Seems like simplistic, narrow minded analysis. Shouldn't a player's circumstances, obvious athleticism and production be analyzed for all prospects?

Now I know why super talented players like Brandon Aiyuk can have 8 or 9 rookie WRs ranked ahead of him going into his rookie draft, despite his pure superior physical talent and 1st round draft capital.

This is my favorite response. You explain why a certain subset of players are risky- be it senior WRs, slow RBs, QBs who only start for one year, whatever. You can show them that subset X busts 90 percent of the time, and they come back with “10% of the time they hit!” as though it’s a comeback.

These people are intellectually destitute and not worth conversing with. Sadly, they seem to be multiplying here.

Didn’t you draft Aiyuk though lol

Oh yeah. He was a first round WR that I could get in the middle of the 2nd round- after guys like Vaughn and even Moss in one league. But I wasn’t touting him as some great prospect either, I just didn’t see the difference between him and other flawed prospects like Pittman and Mims.

I would have loved it if Aiyuk pushed Jefferson or Higgins down to me so I could have an extra share of them, but that never happened. Instead I picked up capital to move off Pittman/Mims and ended up with Aiyuk. Same thing for Toney. I don’t want him, and I hope he pushes Moore and Co. down. But if he gets drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and I can still take him at the 2.08 or something, I might end up pulling the trigger.

[cantguardjake]

This is my favorite response. You explain why a certain subset of players are risky- be it senior WRs, slow RBs, QBs who only start for one year, whatever. You can show them that subset X busts 90 percent of the time, and they come back with “10% of the time they hit!” as though it’s a comeback.

These people are intellectually destitute and not worth conversing with. Sadly, they seem to be multiplying here.

Didn’t you draft Aiyuk though lol

Oh yeah. He was a first round WR that I could get in the middle of the 2nd round- after guys like Vaughn and even Moss in one league. But I wasn’t touting him as some great prospect either, I just didn’t see the difference between him and other flawed prospects like Pittman and Mims.

I would have loved it if Aiyuk pushed Jefferson or Higgins down to me so I could have an extra share of them, but that never happened. Instead I picked up capital to move off Pittman/Mims and ended up with Aiyuk. Same thing for Toney. I don’t want him, and I hope he pushes Moore and Co. down. But if he gets drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and I can still take him at the 2.08 or something, I might end up pulling the trigger.

Whilst I don’t disagree with you that response is a far cry from calling someone “intellectually destitute” for daring to suggest a senior wide receiver like Aiyuk should be evaluated on individual merit, which you literally just did

[Ice]

I think people are going to be fooled by these senior breakouts until the end of time. I hope he pushes down Bateman and Moore.

100%

Also add Terrace and Tamorrion to that list

Seems like simplistic, narrow minded analysis. Shouldn't a player's circumstances, obvious athleticism and production be analyzed for all prospects?

Now I know why super talented players like Brandon Aiyuk can have 8 or 9 rookie WRs ranked ahead of him going into his rookie draft, despite his pure superior physical talent and 1st round draft capital.

Hahaha That is an excellent post.

Of course the stat heads that never quite understood the old saying ," There are Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics", will push back with name calling and 8 or draft slots in rookie drafts to justify. 180 to 365 days on Earth really matter to the stat heads.

It is obvious the Uber Talented players declare early but the concept of late bloomers is lost on many.

[remedy29]

100%

Also add Terrace and Tamorrion to that list

Seems like simplistic, narrow minded analysis. Shouldn't a player's circumstances, obvious athleticism and production be analyzed for all prospects?

Now I know why super talented players like Brandon Aiyuk can have 8 or 9 rookie WRs ranked ahead of him going into his rookie draft, despite his pure superior physical talent and 1st round draft capital.

This is my favorite response. You explain why a certain subset of players are risky- be it senior WRs, slow RBs, QBs who only start for one year, whatever. You can show them that subset X busts 90 percent of the time, and they come back with “10% of the time they hit!” as though it’s a comeback.

These people are intellectually destitute and not worth conversing with. Sadly, they seem to be multiplying here.

OhCluelessRanter, that you are.

Who are these 90% of senior breakout WR that compare to Aiyuk? Seems like you are grouping NFL 3rd round senior WRs with 1st round WRs, which your name makes you correct, you are clueless.

Does Toney situation, as a you know a QB not WR, and injured junior year not factor into why he only broke out his Senior year? He is a raw WR prospect with phenomenal athletic ability, with the ball in his hands, shown in all 4 years of college. Sure he is a boom or bust WR prospect, but I did say I hope to grab him at 2.03, which is right around his current rookie ADP. Personally, when viewing this year's WR prospects, I think Toney can be drafted in the NFL 1st round and his ADP will shoot up into the top 12.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Didn’t you draft Aiyuk though lol

Oh yeah. He was a first round WR that I could get in the middle of the 2nd round- after guys like Vaughn and even Moss in one league. But I wasn’t touting him as some great prospect either, I just didn’t see the difference between him and other flawed prospects like Pittman and Mims.

I would have loved it if Aiyuk pushed Jefferson or Higgins down to me so I could have an extra share of them, but that never happened. Instead I picked up capital to move off Pittman/Mims and ended up with Aiyuk. Same thing for Toney. I don’t want him, and I hope he pushes Moore and Co. down. But if he gets drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and I can still take him at the 2.08 or something, I might end up pulling the trigger.

Whilst I don’t disagree with you that response is a far cry from calling someone “intellectually destitute” for daring to suggest a senior wide receiver like Aiyuk should be evaluated on individual merit, which you literally just did

Ah, read my post again.

The intellectually destitute are the ones who cite an exception to the trend as proof that the trend is incorrect.

Imagine if I told you that your chances of rolling a 12 were 1/36, and that you went ahead, rolled dice 36 times, and then when you finally got a 12, gloated that “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” You’d look like an absolute moron.

Liking a low-probability prospect like Toney doesn’t in and of itself make somebody dumb, that would be crazy. Defending a low probability player by saying “well one time a low probability player ‘late bloomer’ WAS GOOD” is the dumb part. These people don’t understand even the most basic ideas of probability and are incapable of thinking about things analytically. Hence: intellectually destitute.