Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[briank]

If he measures 6'1" 180 I will re-evaluate. My eye test tells me he will come in below each number. when he stands next to a 5'6" Nick Saban, he doesn't exactky tower over him. I have been wrong before though

He's listed at 6'1" 175. I know listings aren't always accurate, but I can't imagine he comes in much below that. I'd bet he's a lot closer to his listed height and weight than what Marquise Brown measured in at. He's got some time to put on good weight.

He just doesn't have the frame to really add weight. He's pretty much maxed out.

You think a guy who's 6'1" and only 175 pounds is maxed out? What???????

[YouMightDieTryin]

Last time we were fixed into a #1 WR didn't turn out too hot with Harry. I'm keeping my mind open to this one. Lots of moving pieces going on. Gonna be a fun offseason with limited tape, testing, etc.

[mgscott]

I will be happy to get either if I can in the top 3-4. I probably have Chase slightly over Smith right now. But man, Smith impresses me much more on tape, so I may have to rethink it. People want to knock him for several reasons (BMI, scheme, Alabama...) but the fact is he produced well with 2-3 other NFL receivers to share with, he dominated this year, all the while running a fairly impressive route tree. Some of his stats were generated by screens and scheme passes, but so were Chase's and pretty much every other WR prospect. You can't say the majority of his stats were from that alone. He was impressive this year any way you look at it. You can say no one with his BMI has succeeded, but anyone can skew stats/trends to fit their narrative. I don't know of a WR prospect who has ever taken a full year off in college by choice and then produced in the NFL. We'll see with both of them.

[mgscott]

Also, no WR, RB or QB has ever played, or not played, in a shortened, pandemic-related college season and then broken out in their first year of the NFL. So they are all trying to buck that trend.

[murphysxm]

Chase produced an 84/1780/20 season as a sophmore, with Justin Jefferson also on the team. I think we forget how awesome he was the last time he played. I actually think it was smart of him to opt out. There is no doubt every team would have thrown bracket coverage on him and his numbers would have declined. Both Smith and Chase benfited from being part of pretty elite offensive squads and both will succeed, I just think Chase is a step above.

[murphysxm]

I have a feeling I am going to have a lot of Terrace Marshall Jr shares

[Yarnith]

Versatility? Ruggs lined up almost exclusively outside on the right hand side his junior year - something like 90%+ of snaps, I don’t think NFL teams really care. Regardless, Chase lined up all over the formation in 2019 anyway, so not really sure why that’s an argument.

Chase did at 19 what Smith is doing at 22, there’s just not a universe where Smith is better than Chase.

NFL teams prove time and time again how dumb they are though, Ruggs and Hollywood were clearly not the best receivers in their class so I won’t rule out Smith going first, some GM probably thinks he’ll “open up the offense” or some such lol

Just because you are so definitive that Chase is the greatest I feel compelled to ask. How did Chase play without Jefferson pulling attention and Burrow breaking collegiate passing records? Clearly his long history of high end production makes him a shoe in at the WR1 draft position correct? What did Chase do that Smith has failed to surpass that makes your bold statement factual? Smith put up a better season than Chase with every defense focused purely on shutting him down.

I am not actually arguing Smith is better just that the crazy notion Chase is the WR1 because you say so is plain silly. Lot of things say he may be but a lot say he might not as well.

[cantguardjake]

Versatility? Ruggs lined up almost exclusively outside on the right hand side his junior year - something like 90%+ of snaps, I don’t think NFL teams really care. Regardless, Chase lined up all over the formation in 2019 anyway, so not really sure why that’s an argument.

Chase did at 19 what Smith is doing at 22, there’s just not a universe where Smith is better than Chase.

NFL teams prove time and time again how dumb they are though, Ruggs and Hollywood were clearly not the best receivers in their class so I won’t rule out Smith going first, some GM probably thinks he’ll “open up the offense” or some such lol

Just because you are so definitive that Chase is the greatest I feel compelled to ask. How did Chase play without Jefferson pulling attention and Burrow breaking collegiate passing records? Clearly his long history of high end production makes him a shoe in at the WR1 draft position correct? What did Chase do that Smith has failed to surpass that makes your bold statement factual? Smith put up a better season than Chase with every defense focused purely on shutting him down.

I am not actually arguing Smith is better just that the crazy notion Chase is the WR1 because you say so is plain silly. Lot of things say he may be but a lot say he might not as well.

Lol would I have avoided this barrage if I prefaced it with “in my opinion”?

In my opinion I don’t think there’s anything that Smith does better than Chase. Chase is bigger, younger, will have a better speed score, has better age adjusted production, has a better breakout age, had better competition for production within his own team (I don’t necessarily care about this but people do, and yes it’s now clear Jefferson > Jeudy and Ruggs), and in my opinion has better film.

Smiths gets comped to Marvin Harrison even though he’s lighter and taller though, so there’s that I guess.

[Yarnith]

Lol would I have avoided this barrage if I prefaced it with “in my opinion”?

In my opinion I don’t think there’s anything that Smith does better than Chase. Chase is bigger, younger, will have a better speed score, has better age adjusted production, has a better breakout age, had better competition for production within his own team (I don’t necessarily care about this but people do, and yes it’s now clear Jefferson > Jeudy and Ruggs), and in my opinion has better film.

Smiths gets comped to Marvin Harrison even though he’s lighter and taller though, so there’s that I guess.

Hey man you wanna come out strong you gotta throw some weight on it or come in softer . The only real Harrison comp is he is one of the 30% of fantasy WR1's that were sub 26 BMI. That is 3 out of 10, 9ish out of 32 league wide? Based off his college numbers he could very easily be in that group. There is a lot of data that WR's with 1 year of college success are very likely NFL busts as well. Then again Chase had a helluva 1 year so he could easily be in that group. Time will tell.

Speaking of opinions to get people fired up.

I like Wilson more than Fields, I like him so much in fact I would probably trade back giving up Lawrence to happily grab Wilson+ doing so. I like how Wilson plays on tape better and love how he throws. Just my opinion though I understand why many wont agree.

[Sriracha]

Lol would I have avoided this barrage if I prefaced it with “in my opinion”?

In my opinion I don’t think there’s anything that Smith does better than Chase. Chase is bigger, younger, will have a better speed score, has better age adjusted production, has a better breakout age, had better competition for production within his own team (I don’t necessarily care about this but people do, and yes it’s now clear Jefferson > Jeudy and Ruggs), and in my opinion has better film.

Smiths gets comped to Marvin Harrison even though he’s lighter and taller though, so there’s that I guess.

Hey man you wanna come out strong you gotta throw some weight on it or come in softer . The only real Harrison comp is he is one of the 30% of fantasy WR1's that were sub 26 BMI. That is 3 out of 10, 9ish out of 32 league wide? Based off his college numbers he could very easily be in that group. There is a lot of data that WR's with 1 year of college success are very likely NFL busts as well. Then again Chase had a helluva 1 year so he could easily be in that group. Time will tell.

Speaking of opinions to get people fired up.

I like Wilson more than Fields, I like him so much in fact I would probably trade back giving up Lawrence to happily grab Wilson+ doing so. I like how Wilson plays on tape better and love how he throws. Just my opinion though I understand why many wont agree.

Marvin Harrison played at 175 in college. He's as close to Devonta's body type as we can get and shows us what we all expect Smith to do once he gets to the NFL: put on weight.

If you'd like you can drop him to the 1.5 tier of WRs like consensus did with Lamb,Jeudy/Jefferson,Reagor last year... but I think this past year just further validates the inclusion of the two into the same tier. Jefferson is at worst a similar talent and is very likely to be the best WR of this loaded draft class. I believe we could easily see something similar happen when we look back at this draft class next season.

The arguments against Smith just seem way too nit picky given the wide array of positives on his profile. If Smith goes on to have the best WR career in this draft class no one will bat an eye

[Ice]

Speaking of opinions to get people fired up.

I like Wilson more than Fields, I like him so much in fact I would probably trade back giving up Lawrence to happily grab Wilson+ doing so. I like how Wilson plays on tape better and love how he throws. Just my opinion though I understand why many wont agree.

No argument from me except for the Lawrence part in the NFL. Lawrence is a lock 1st pick.

Wilson may very well go #2 overall. I will be a little surprised if Fields goes ahead of him personally.

[Yarnith]

Speaking of opinions to get people fired up.

I like Wilson more than Fields, I like him so much in fact I would probably trade back giving up Lawrence to happily grab Wilson+ doing so. I like how Wilson plays on tape better and love how he throws. Just my opinion though I understand why many wont agree.

No argument from me except for the Lawrence part. Lawrence is a lock 1st pick.

Wilson may very well go #2 overall. I will be a little surprised if Fields goes ahead of him personally.

Oh I agree Lawrence will go 1. I mean in fantasy I would totally cash out the 1.1 to get Wilson+ whatever they wanna pay to move up for Lawrence. I dont hate Lawrence I just like Wilson that much.

[cantguardjake]

Lol would I have avoided this barrage if I prefaced it with “in my opinion”?

In my opinion I don’t think there’s anything that Smith does better than Chase. Chase is bigger, younger, will have a better speed score, has better age adjusted production, has a better breakout age, had better competition for production within his own team (I don’t necessarily care about this but people do, and yes it’s now clear Jefferson > Jeudy and Ruggs), and in my opinion has better film.

Smiths gets comped to Marvin Harrison even though he’s lighter and taller though, so there’s that I guess.

Hey man you wanna come out strong you gotta throw some weight on it or come in softer . The only real Harrison comp is he is one of the 30% of fantasy WR1's that were sub 26 BMI. That is 3 out of 10, 9ish out of 32 league wide? Based off his college numbers he could very easily be in that group. There is a lot of data that WR's with 1 year of college success are very likely NFL busts as well. Then again Chase had a helluva 1 year so he could easily be in that group. Time will tell.

Speaking of opinions to get people fired up.

I like Wilson more than Fields, I like him so much in fact I would probably trade back giving up Lawrence to happily grab Wilson+ doing so. I like how Wilson plays on tape better and love how he throws. Just my opinion though I understand why many wont agree.

What do those stats look like for sub 24 BMIs? That’s where he’s tracking at the moment. How many of those receivers with 1 year of production did so in their sophomore year and then sat out their junior season? I think it’s pretty safe to assume Chase would have had a reasonable year after seeing what Marshall did to the DBs LSU faced lol, I don’t really think that data set applies in this instance.

Don’t get me wrong, Smith is solid but Chase was on another level last year. 5 minutes of either players game cut ups and you can tell the difference instantly.

Re: Wilson, I actually agree fully I already plan to trade back if given the opportunity to draft Lawrence and pick up Wilson instead. I’m in the Wilson is #2 camp, and Trevor is a little over rated camp (if that’s even a camp lol). I think it may have been FantasyFreak that mentioned him in this thread in around October and have been in love ever since.

[Dragon_Breath5]

Jermar Jefferson - RB - Ducks : Probably my 4th back behind the big 3, and one of the only other ones who intrigues me so far. Powerful back but also the speed to break away. Easier competition sure, but I don't hear/see nearly enough about him for how I think he's performed from what I've watched so far.

I love me some Jermar too, but he was an Oregon State Beaver. He torched the Ducks this year so you can call him a Ducky Daddy, but he's not a duck.

[mgscott]

I have a feeling I am going to have a lot of Terrace Marshall Jr shares

I like this call. I just hope he can somewhat go under the radar.