Ranking the 2020 rookie rbs for 2021

[Sriracha]

We'll see if it's smart. I've been committed to the RB Age Cliff Theory for a while yet, and last year my blood went cold when a writer wondered if the Age Cliff might be distorted by what I tend to call the Great RB Drought of 2009-2014 (six consecutive crummy RB classes), which would artificially drive down RB age curves considering the '09-'14 generation of RB prospects was the worst drought anyone's seen since I've been playing ('98). That's the kind of counterargument that can really scare the heck out of me because it's compelling. If you have a ton of RB's basically repeatedly crash out of the league early because they're awful prospects, that will drive the curve down. I'm super curious what the age cliff looked like w/a 20 year sample size of say, 1989-2009, as compared to the 2000-2020 sampling, because it's hard not to imagine that it isn't just the changes in the league that matter, but the ups and downs of classes in relatively small windows over time.

Regardless, by the time I read about that possibility I was pot committed with more than 2 dozen '20 firsts, and a pile of 2nds (all used on WR's for the most part), and had already been drafting these guys all spring and summer. Thankfully the scary start to the season where other than CEH, nobody looked impressive turned over to reveal the opposite after September, with everyone slowly either taking the starting gig completely in hand (Taylor, Akers, GIbson) or nearly so (Dobbins, Swift), so I'm pretty happy w/what I did, even if I'd apportion the picks differently, preferably w/my pre-draft rankings (which would've meant I'd have even more Dobbins and Swift, and zero CEH in retrospect, but still be understaffed in terms of Akers).

Anyway, time will tell, I love all the guys, they're all generally quite young, and so I can roll through them through the next two suspect RB classes while I try to acquire picks for '23 and beyond to restock and keep an eye on the age cliff to get a better feel for whether what happened with the the big boys of the '15 and '16 classes is definitively relevant for the big boys of the '17 and '18 (and more) classes moving forward.

I've always been of the opinion that this new cliff being 27 years old is bologna specifically because of the consecutive classes that showcased Carlos friggin Hyde and Bishop Sankey as top RB prospects. Just think about the logic that led us to this new RB cliff theory: why would RB's bodies suddenly break down faster when the NFL is protecting it's players more than ever before? Horse Collar tackles, clip blocking, spearing.. it's not just QBs that are enjoying these rule changes..

However, while I don't think we're going to see these older RBs fall off a cliff I do believe this class is going to be looked back as special.

Akers has had an 86% opportunity share since the 2nd half of the SF game on a run first offense, with a top 5 graded O-line... and it's only a matter of time before he fully takes over the 3rd down back duties going forward (the process has already started). Regardless of how you feel about his talent (I personally think he looks like Thomas Jones) his opportunity share trending forward is elite.

Gibson, along with JT and Saquon are the only RBs in NFL history to run a 4.4 forty at 225+ lbs and have a 25 reception college season. That's two historically freak athletes from the same draft class.. his situation looks murky into the future but his physical talents put a ceiling on him that few RBs have.

I don't think we need to talk about JT Elite power, deep speed, and he just keeps getting better and better as he gets acclimated to the NFL game. Rivers has been absolutely awful for half the season. A new QB that can stretch the field would actually open up this offense.

Dobbins has been phenomenal, and every bit the playmaker we thought he'd be. The only concern is Gus Edwards being a far better RB than most people realized... his game perfectly complementing Dobbins will likely have him siphoning enough touches to prevent Dobbins from ever becoming a workhorse.

Swift looks like the frankenchild of MJD and Lesean McCoy.

If you bet on this draft class, your future is looking very, very good.

[JJRules]

If you bet on this draft class, your future is looking very, very good.

Regardless of who ranks which players in what order, ^this^ is the biggest and most important thing IMO and it's hard to overstate.

[nathanq42]

If you bet on this draft class, your future is looking very, very good.

Regardless of who ranks which players in what order, ^this^ is the biggest and most important thing IMO and it's hard to overstate.

Im glad to have bet my future on this year's RBs, wish I could have gotten some of the WRs but I just couldnt pull the trigger. I have had terrible history with first round WRs, I would have likely gone Jeudy or Reagor anyways... Thank goodness eh?

[mgscott]

It obviously was sarcasm.

you never know these days.....

Very true. I guess I shouldn't assume!

Just trying to give all the usual arguments we see here for RB's to either not pan out or fall off a cliff. I should have added that he runs upright and doesn't sink his hips, but those may not apply to him.

He is and should be not lower than #3RB on any list, either redraft or dynasty.

I'm sure it was an oversight to not include him. Or he has him in a completely different upper tier that is so high up you can't even see it.

[kmbryant09]

How does Kamara not make this list?

Complete oversight, thanks for pointing that out. He's firmly in the first tier, in case that even needs clarifying!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Gibson, along with JT and Saquon are the only RBs in NFL history to run a 4.4 forty at 225+ lbs and have a 25 reception college season. That's two historically freak athletes from the same draft class.. his situation looks murky into the future but his physical talents put a ceiling on him that few RBs have.

It should be noted that Gibson wasn't listed, as far as I can tell, as a RB in college. At least not on sports reference nor his college website. Plus the disparity between he and JT/Saquon in college production is massive. So, yeah I get it he's a rare breed but in fairness it's not quite the same imo.

Zeke, Ronnie Brown, Marcel Reece, Kalen Ballage fit the criteria but ran in the 4.4s. Knile Davis 19 receptions @ 4.37 227 lbs.

[stoneghost28]

Gibson, along with JT and Saquon are the only RBs in NFL history to run a 4.4 forty at 225+ lbs and have a 25 reception college season. That's two historically freak athletes from the same draft class.. his situation looks murky into the future but his physical talents put a ceiling on him that few RBs have.

It should be noted that Gibson wasn't listed, as far as I can tell, as a RB in college. At least not on sports reference nor his college website. Plus the disparity between he and JT/Saquon in college production is massive. So, yeah I get it he's a rare breed but in fairness it's not quite the same imo.

Zeke, Ronnie Brown, Marcel Reece, Kalen Ballage fit the criteria but ran in the 4.4s. Knile Davis 19 receptions @ 4.37 227 lbs.

It doesn't matter anymore. Gibson was lighting it up with limited touches in an offense typically featuring a bionic guy that barely had a functional leg six months earlier, and before that a guy who passed through waivers w/no interest, and Kyle freaking Allen and a guy w/a beer name that nobody had ever heard of as his QB. The OL going into the season was bottom 5 ranked, the WR group was a complete ---- show especially after Harmon went down with McLaurin and a bunch of detritus, and our starting TE options were a guy famous for theiving stuff at something called the Belk Bowl, and a former college QB who'd converted into TE to try to find a space on the 53 for various teams over the past couple of years and hadn't done squat.

No joke, the Redskins offense was easily the worst, or bottom 2 or 3 in terms of position groups across the board in the NFL, and had no QB anyone anywhere would want anywhere on their roster, starting every single week in a QB Merry Go Round from Dante's Inferno, and Gibson still blew up, doing what people expected and didn't see CEH do on an offense 50,000,000,000x more impressive.

Whatever happened at WR/RB w/Memphis happened, all I know now is that he blew up when he had literally zero reason to (same with McLaurin, same to a lesser degree w/Logan Thomas) based on the situation. The situation was every bit as bad if not worse than the Jets, but he still blew up. That means far more than whatever happened at Memphis. Im super pissed my brother took him ahead of me in all leagues except a handful I don't play in with him that I decided to hold my nose about our favorite team having him, and take him anyway.

[stoneghost28]

I've always been of the opinion that this new cliff being 27 years old is bologna specifically because of the consecutive classes that showcased Carlos friggin Hyde and Bishop Sankey as top RB prospects. Just think about the logic that led us to this new RB cliff theory: why would RB's bodies suddenly break down faster when the NFL is protecting it's players more than ever before? Horse Collar tackles, clip blocking, spearing.. it's not just QBs that are enjoying these rule changes..

However, while I don't think we're going to see these older RBs fall off a cliff I do believe this class is going to be looked back as special.

Akers has had an 86% opportunity share since the 2nd half of the SF game on a run first offense, with a top 5 graded O-line... and it's only a matter of time before he fully takes over the 3rd down back duties going forward (the process has already started). Regardless of how you feel about his talent (I personally think he looks like Thomas Jones) his opportunity share trending forward is elite.

Gibson, along with JT and Saquon are the only RBs in NFL history to run a 4.4 forty at 225+ lbs and have a 25 reception college season. That's two historically freak athletes from the same draft class.. his situation looks murky into the future but his physical talents put a ceiling on him that few RBs have.

I don't think we need to talk about JT Elite power, deep speed, and he just keeps getting better and better as he gets acclimated to the NFL game. Rivers has been absolutely awful for half the season. A new QB that can stretch the field would actually open up this offense.

Dobbins has been phenomenal, and every bit the playmaker we thought he'd be. The only concern is Gus Edwards being a far better RB than most people realized... his game perfectly complementing Dobbins will likely have him siphoning enough touches to prevent Dobbins from ever becoming a workhorse.

Swift looks like the frankenchild of MJD and Lesean McCoy.

If you bet on this draft class, your future is looking very, very good.

I still don't think it is bologna, I think the evidence that it's real is far more compelling than that it isn't, but I do think the '09-'14 Drought is deeply relevant. However I also think the league changing how it values RB's, and I also think the size/speed/athleticism of defensive players is probably the core issue now. I get what you're saying but I think the league is less interested in paying RB's period and especially older RB's, and I also think defensive players obliterate RB's careers due to that size/speed/athleticism angle. The latter is anecdotal but relevant. Compare defenses today to decades ago and the size, speed, and strength of defensive players is absurd. But again, anecdotal, just seems logical that players w/this degree of athleticism is a major problem. QB's are protected yes, but RB's aren't.

[Sriracha]

Gibson, along with JT and Saquon are the only RBs in NFL history to run a 4.4 forty at 225+ lbs and have a 25 reception college season. That's two historically freak athletes from the same draft class.. his situation looks murky into the future but his physical talents put a ceiling on him that few RBs have.

It should be noted that Gibson wasn't listed, as far as I can tell, as a RB in college. At least not on sports reference nor his college website. Plus the disparity between he and JT/Saquon in college production is massive. So, yeah I get it he's a rare breed but in fairness it's not quite the same imo.

Zeke, Ronnie Brown, Marcel Reece, Kalen Ballage fit the criteria but ran in the 4.4s. Knile Davis 19 receptions @ 4.37 227 lbs.

Elliot ran a 4.47, Ronnie 4.43, Ballage ran a 4.46

Knile Davis 4.37 is the only guy you listed with a comparable size/speed combo. Kevin Jones 4.38 is another guy (both of them were more straight line runners... but that's neither here nor there)

Saquon 4.40, JT 4.39, Gibson 4.39

So they're still in some very rare company.

I do agree that JT and Saquon were both significantly better prospects than Gibson... but Gibson did show all of the traits to succeed at the NFL level at Memphis (Contact balance, ability to run inside tackle and lateral agility).. then he proved he could do it for an entire season as a rookie in a bad situation. At this point I'm over the narrative that he's not a RB just because he played some pseudo WR/RB hybrid role at Memphis.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I know you were specifying 4.40 and under and I was listing people over 4.40, that's why I specifically stated that they fit the criteria BUT ran in the 4.4s. Just pointing out there are several RB's that are at least close to your stated criteria who didn't amount to much of anything.

[Sriracha]

I know you were specifying 4.40 and under and I was listing people over 4.40, that's why I specifically stated that they fit the criteria BUT ran in the 4.4s. Just pointing out there are several RB's that are at least close to your stated criteria who didn't amount to much of anything.

Is 4.47 really that close to 4.4?

I do see what you're saying. Obviously production is an important indicator and is often a sign that delimitates between underwear olympic warriors and RBs. Entering the season I liked Gibson (pre Guice) then his ADP blew up after Guice's fiasco and I turned hesitant because we were missing the production element of his profile. I believe he's checked that box after his rookie season.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I know you were specifying 4.40 and under and I was listing people over 4.40, that's why I specifically stated that they fit the criteria BUT ran in the 4.4s. Just pointing out there are several RB's that are at least close to your stated criteria who didn't amount to much of anything.

Is 4.47 really that close to 4.4?

If you don't want to comp him to Zeke that's fine with me *shrug*

I'd say 4.40 is a different kind of fast than 4.47, but considering your other factors (weight, receiving ability) the difference in speed really shouldn't be the determining factor as to whether said rb will be good or not in the NFL. So within that context, yeah I'd say it's close.

[cantguardjake]

I know you were specifying 4.40 and under and I was listing people over 4.40, that's why I specifically stated that they fit the criteria BUT ran in the 4.4s. Just pointing out there are several RB's that are at least close to your stated criteria who didn't amount to much of anything.

Is 4.47 really that close to 4.4?

If you don't want to comp him to Zeke that's fine with me *shrug*

I'd say 4.40 is a different kind of fast than 4.47, but considering your other factors (weight, receiving ability) the difference in speed really shouldn't be the determining factor as to whether said rb will be good or not in the NFL. So within that context, yeah I'd say it's close.

What about 4.54 compared to 4.47 though

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Is 4.47 really that close to 4.4?

If you don't want to comp him to Zeke that's fine with me *shrug*

I'd say 4.40 is a different kind of fast than 4.47, but considering your other factors (weight, receiving ability) the difference in speed really shouldn't be the determining factor as to whether said rb will be good or not in the NFL. So within that context, yeah I'd say it's close.

What about 4.54 compared to 4.47 though

4.5x, gross

[stoneghost28]

I know you were specifying 4.40 and under and I was listing people over 4.40, that's why I specifically stated that they fit the criteria BUT ran in the 4.4s. Just pointing out there are several RB's that are at least close to your stated criteria who didn't amount to much of anything.

Is 4.47 really that close to 4.4?

I do see what you're saying. Obviously production is an important indicator and is often a sign that delimitates between underwear olympic warriors and RBs. Entering the season I liked Gibson (pre Guice) then his ADP blew up after Guice's fiasco and I turned hesitant because we were missing the production element of his profile. I believe he's checked that box after his rookie season.

Thanks for mentioning that. I had Gibson as one my only non-WR target for picks in round 2 before the NFL Draft, and then when he went to my redskins/WFT, I just completely threw in the towel and it was for totally justifiable reasons.

1 No QB or OL worth a damn.
2. Guice was elite in any game he was healthy for and I remained a huge Bryce Love believer (needless to say, if there was a Bryce Love/Derrius Guice Anonymous Group meeting every tuesday night, I'd probably be running the meetings) AND they inexplicably signed McKissic
3. Team in Total Disaray

It just seemed utterly pointless to waste draft capital on him when the second round was a whose who of high upside WR2/WR3 caliber talents littering the board, why go after a guy when Guice looked like a top 5-10 RB when actually healthy enough to play, Love looked like the best or close to the best RB in college his last healthy season ('17) and the situation itself beyond the crowded RB room was a dumpster fire worst case scenario.

Of course now, 8 or 9 months later, a lot seems more clear, they clearly knew Love's health was basically a huge problem, they must have had inside info about the Guice suspension possibilities in retrospect (and/or at least knowledge like the rest of the league of how God awful his behavior appears to have been at LSU. At the time I thought it was inexplicable that he'd been selected behind obviously inferior backs repeatedly in '18, but now it seems clear that area scouts had a bunch of really ugly red flags on him in terms of criminal activity, but not enough to cause him to dump entirely out of day 2) and they had clearly gone after Gibson to be their McCaffrey or Samuel or some blend of both.

Definitely frustrating, if we'd had info about the situation w/Guice, well, we already know from ADP, but he clearly would have been drafted substantially earlier. I wonder if he'd gone to most of those big 5 teams, where he would've gone (Baltimore, KC, Detroit, Indy etc) instead of a dumpster fire like DC?

For me, I drafted him in an apex dynasty start up because all my WR targets were gone, and he was next up if that ever happened, my brother demanded we draft him in a 10 team 2QB Dynasty league, so we acquired 2.08 to get him there, and I ended acquiring him in an RSO League w/a tank trade (out the door went Kendrick Bourne and Alvin Kamara's last half season on cheap contract+his rookie option, in the door came Antonio Gibson (and his super cheap rookie deal through 2023+rookie option) and a '22 1st).

I'm still going to go after him in the offseason because in leagues where I don't play with my brother and someone else owns him, I tend to imagine he'll still be undervalued due to the toe injury and the naturally depressed value of guys on a terrible team like WFT There's about 4 or 5 of those leagues, unfortunately one of the shares is probably impossible to acquire considering the owner tends to not accept offers, but simply send them (either you like his deal (which happens every once in a long while) or no deal, or perhaps that's just my experience).