Nick Chubb Thread: Chubb = Stud

[remedy29]

Steelers are good and their defense is legit, but they won't steamroll Cleveland like Baltimore did. In fact, I'd put a small bet that Cleveland wins one of those games.

You will most assuredly lose that bet. That Steelers defense might be even scarier than the Ravens and just held Saquon Barkley to negative rushing yardage. Whether you think the Giants are the same, worse, or better from an O-line/RB/QB perspective, they are at the least roughly equivalent. Expect tough sledding.

I want to believe that all is well in Chubb land, but I'm smarter than that. I will predict that we will be back to DEFCON Chubb pretty soon in this thread, and perhaps as soon as post-Week 3. This WFT front 7 is for real (and if you don't believe me, you might want to go watch the condensed game).

I'm not arguing that them running their O through their RB's isn't a good thing. I'm saying the Browns themselves are not a good thing.

Easy money

[AussieMate]

Steelers are good and their defense is legit, but they won't steamroll Cleveland like Baltimore did. In fact, I'd put a small bet that Cleveland wins one of those games.

You will most assuredly lose that bet. That Steelers defense might be even scarier than the Ravens and just held Saquon Barkley to negative rushing yardage. Whether you think the Giants are the same, worse, or better from an O-line/RB/QB perspective, they are at the least roughly equivalent. Expect tough sledding.

I want to believe that all is well in Chubb land, but I'm smarter than that. I will predict that we will be back to DEFCON Chubb pretty soon in this thread, and perhaps as soon as post-Week 3. This WFT front 7 is for real (and if you don't believe me, you might want to go watch the condensed game).

I'm not arguing that them running their O through their RB's isn't a good thing. I'm saying the Browns themselves are not a good thing.

Easy money

[gogobradyarm]

He looked so damn good this season. I believe he is going to have his best season in 2021, another year in Stefanski's system and with a good offensive line. I'm pumped.

[Shankopotamus]

Top 6 talent for me. I really wish something, anything really, would happen to make Hunt go away.

[mild]

Easy money

Lol, fair enough! Can't say I was posting that with the post-season in mind in Week 2 in September, but yeah, live your truth...

The Steelers absolutely destroyed the Browns 38-7 and held Kareem Hunt to 40 yards rushing in the game after I posted that. Just, y'know... so we can cash the right cheques here...

[remedy29]

Easy money

Lol, fair enough! Can't say I was posting that with the post-season in mind in Week 2 in September, but yeah, live your truth...

The Steelers absolutely destroyed the Browns 38-7 and held Kareem Hunt to 40 yards rushing in the game after I posted that. Just, y'know... so we can cash the right cheques here...

At the time, the discussion/thought was that the Browns were terrible, Baker was a bust, Chubb was in a terrible situation and fantasy owners should move on bc there is no way he can succeed there with how bad the Browns were and the presence of Hunt.

Since then, the Browns have been one of the best teams in the league, Baker is not a bust (he just needed to move on from Odell) and Chubb, despite his injury, showed he is in a good situation, on a run first team despite Hunt.

My point, was that the Browns were not going to get steamed rolled over often, and their run first team philosophy was an excellent situation for Chubb...I really don't understand how anyone argued otherwise.

The Browns are a lot closer in talent to the Chiefs than people realize.

[stoneghost28]

Chubb is very good. The reality is he my be just slightly more valuable than Hunt in Fantasy. This means Chubb's fantasy value is right around the 10-13th best RB fantasy wise.

I get if he was on a different team a different case could be made but the reality is the following 9 RB's should go ahead of him easily

CMC
Barkley
Zeke
Henry
CEH
Jacobs
Kamara
Cook
Sanders

Mixon
Chubb is in the tier with Mixon, Drake, Jones, Eckler, & Hunt.

I have said more than once it would not surprise me at all if Hunt outscores him this season in ppr leagues.

You forgot Taylor

I would not put Taylor above Chubb. I keep echoing this....people severely undervalue consistency at RB in the light of “upside”. Why does a RB who is going to get you 1100+ Rush yards and 8-10 TDs need upside?

I rate Taylor ahead of Chubb for two reasons:
#1: 25 vs 22

#2 Kareem Hunt


That being said, I think I have Chubb higher than consensus as well, but I still would be working to trade rather than acquire because '21 is going to be his age 25 season and I'm a RB Age Cliff scaredy cat (though he definitely seems like a guy who will be an exception, but so have so many others in recent years and Gurley, Gordon, Johnson, and Zeke have all slowed down a great deal in recent years, or this past year (I imagine Zeke might have been a lot different if Dak hadn't gone down).

[stoneghost28]

I've made my stance on Chubb known. If Hunt weren't stealing touches he'd be my RB3 or 4 behind Saquon/CMC and maybe Zeke.

Hunt's there, though, so I'd put him behind Saquon/CMC/Zeke/Jacobs/CEH with Kamara and Cook, so RB6-8.

The splits are there, and pretty profound. Chubb w/o Hunt in house if memory serves carried all the upside of a top 3-5 back the past two years. No Hunt, and Chubb would've been a much more valuable asset, though as is, he's still a top 10 option (to me anyway), I just prefer to get younger at the position, he'll be at the cliff after the '21 season, and I don't invest in situations like that unless the leagues are super active in terms of trading.

[dynastyninja]

I've made my stance on Chubb known. If Hunt weren't stealing touches he'd be my RB3 or 4 behind Saquon/CMC and maybe Zeke.

Hunt's there, though, so I'd put him behind Saquon/CMC/Zeke/Jacobs/CEH with Kamara and Cook, so RB6-8.

The splits are there, and pretty profound. Chubb w/o Hunt in house if memory serves carried all the upside of a top 3-5 back the past two years. No Hunt, and Chubb would've been a much more valuable asset, though as is, he's still a top 10 option (to me anyway), I just prefer to get younger at the position, he'll be at the cliff after the '21 season, and I don't invest in situations like that unless the leagues are super active in terms of trading.

To be fair, I posted this early on in the season, so his production in '20 was included in his value.

Every top season for RBs is crucial, and we're not guaranteed a ton of them per player, so I understand the concerns of a cliff. It's a very real thing and can be hard to predict. Maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see, but I think Chubb has the ability to be similar to Gore in terms of longevity. Chubb is extremely athletic, but he's also elite at the running back position, so he could lose some athleticism and still put up RB1-2 numbers as he gets older.

I actually think Chubb's value (early 2nd per mizelle) is reasonably low and doesn't make him that compelling of a sell. He's also had a lightened workload with Hunt stealing touches, so his longevity would hopefully improve. You know you're getting RB1 production from him with the potential for stud production if Hunt is injured or leaves. RB is the only position where 25 isn't that young anymore, but I'm optimistic that he produces for a good number of years still.

[stoneghost28]

I would add that his knee injury in college was so thoroughly horrific that through much of the fall of 2017, there was legit fear that Chubb was just a JAG because the explosion people saw from him in the run game in '14/'15 pre-injury was gone. It turned out he got it back, and has been if not that guy he was as a freshman, damn close, but he's still a guy who had a devastating knee injury, hasn't been consistently healthy, will play '21 in his age 25 season, and is in a committee for now. He's also a wondrously talented RB, in pure talent, probably top 3-5 in the league, maybe top 1-3, but there are so many damn caveats that I'm passing. I traded away about half the shares I owned in the '20 offseason, and another in a rebuild/reboot move (out the door were Kyler and Chubb as the main pieces, in the door were the 1.03 and Jonathan Taylor and other pieces back in week 9) and only carry a couple these days and prefer to trade guys a year too early rather than too late. Sometimes that bites me in the rear w/the season (absolutely hurt me with Chubb and Kelce this year) but generally I prefer to run out of the building before it falls on me a la Julio Jones value collapse, OBJ's value collapse (which did hit me), Gurley and Zeke's implosion etc. I don't want to have a guy on my roster when his value is cut by 60%+, and sticking RB's at the top of your board/or keeping them in your core that are 25-26 is flat out playing with fire in my book (w/the caveat that there may be some issues w/the RB age cliff due to the run of horrible drafts w/RB's who crashed out early over and over and over again from '09-'14). I understand why people have guys like Henry and Chubb really high now, or Zeke last year, or were still using top 30 picks on Julio, AJ Green etc in recent years or this year, but doing so is just crazy to me, the risk is just way too high, the floor, way too potentially low.

I'll miss on guys for sure taking this risk, and Chubb does seem like the kinda guy who could really last if he can avoid further leg/knee injuries, otoh, Henry to me just seems like insanity. He reminds me of Earl Campbell so much (everyone had his jersey when I was in preschool/elementary school in the late seventies and early eighties in the Bay Area!), and I truly fear he's gonna have a career that goes a similar way. He is such a punishing runner that it's very difficult to imagine him having a long career. Then again Jerome Bettis played that way and had a really long career so who knows?

I can definitely be wrong, about a lot of things, I get that, and I will end up feeling very stupid for trading some guys too early, for sure (already do with Kelce, x1000, kinda with Chubb) but still, I also feel a great deal more comfortable knowing virtually all of my RB Core's are built around 21 and 22 year olds.

[Blueboy]

If Chubb is actually going for an early second there's no reason for anyone, even in a deep rebuild, to sell. That's a ludicrous price.

[dynastyninja]

If Chubb is actually going for an early second there's no reason for anyone, even in a deep rebuild, to sell. That's a ludicrous price.

Mizelle's ADP has him at #14 and the 9th running back off the board. Not the gospel, but a useful measure.

[Valhalla]

If Chubb is actually going for an early second there's no reason for anyone, even in a deep rebuild, to sell. That's a ludicrous price.

Mizelle's ADP has him at #14 and the 9th running back off the board. Not the gospel, but a useful measure.

Just checked in on that to satiate my curiosity. Thus far...that data is an adp of SIX drafts in total...and quite possibly less drafters than 6. I could have contributed three of those six drafts. I didn’t, but my point is I believe I could have. Mizzelle’s stuff is good, but that ADP is simply not meaningful yet.

[mild]

If Chubb is actually going for an early second there's no reason for anyone, even in a deep rebuild, to sell. That's a ludicrous price.

He was talking Startup Draft value vs. Rookie Picks that you're thinking of - at a guess. Obviously nobody is selling for a 2nd.

I'd need 2 1sts or a decent young WR + a mid 1st to even entertain moving him.

[gogobradyarm]

TL:DR: Don't sell a RB because he is 25...Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Emmitt Smith, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, Thomas Jones, etc etc all played well into their 30's!!!! Nick Chubb is that caliber talent!

I recently traded Diggs for Chubb and 2.02. Very excited to have Chubb back as I had watched him and rooted for his come back, during the Georgia days.

While I understand the idea of selling RB in the mid 20's, I don't necessarily agree. If your team is a win now contender, I would not be doing that. If you're not a true contender though, sure, sell away.

I think certain recency bias is at play with RB's falling off, mostly being Gurley, Gordon, David Johnson. The thing with those guys, is the first two had serious knee injuries dating back to college. I believe they both also had micro-fracture surgery, which histrionically reduces NFL longevity (oddly enough Kelce also had this, but is going strong).

Gurley was rumored to have bone on bone, and that sadly ruined his career.

Gordon's to me was never a truly special RB, but an above average do it all back that finally benefited once the Charger's had a serviceable offensive line, and with a good scheme for him. He went to a considerably worse offense in Denver and has suffered.

David Johnson's career was derailed by injuries, the retirement of Carson Palmer, and while he was a great all around player (excellent WR and open field runner), he was never a special between the tackles guy.

When I think of Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, and Zeke (all of them are 25), I see 3 guys that are all as good as prime Gurley was as a runner, or better. These guys are also quite good at catching the ball, and may even be developing still as all around players. Zeke is the only one of the 3 that has possibly shown any sign of slowing down, but I 100% believe that is tied to being in a crap offense and being de-motivated. The guy is a bit of a head case, and I think he is just depressed knowing the Cowboys are booty. I fully expect him to bounce back, in a major way in 2021.

My point though is, selling a RB at 25 isn't always bad or isn't always good. Guys like Zeke, Cook, Chubb, are not guys I feel are going to slow down any time soon, and these are guys that are consistently producing at elite levels (some injuries sprinkled in, but no bone on bone or microfracture surgery). It's easy to forget that guys like Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, Thomas Jones, Barry Sanders, etc etc all played well into their 30's!!!!